I wanted to write a column about the Green Bay Packers, and I thought, hey, why not focus on the team’s catalyst, Aaron Rodgers? My stance concerning Rodgers is straightforward: in my mind, Packers fans couldn’t have asked for a better quarterback to replace Brett Favre. Some would argue that Green Bay never should have dumped Favre, especially as Number Four slices and dices defenses with precision not seen since the mid ‘90s, but one would be hard pressed to find fault with Aaron Rodgers.

There are quarterbacks in the NFL who frustrate fans with errant and downright awful throws (*cough* Cutler *cough*) and others who remind fans on a weekly basis that they shouldn’t be starters (I‘m looking at you, Jake Delhomme). But Rodgers doesn’t fit either mold.

First, he holds the ball instead of trying to force it through defenders. It’s a novel idea, especially for someone who was asked to fill the shoes of Favre, who routinely threw 20 or so interceptions during a season. (Coincidentally, I think Brad Childress may have introduced the “don’t force it” idea to Favre this season, too.) Yes, there are times Rodgers holds the ball too long and takes unnecessary sacks. Those losses are critical; often this season games have been decided by field position. But isn’t it great seeing someone throw over 20 touchdowns and fewer than 10 interceptions? Rodgers has 22 and 5 through 11 games this season. By the end of the year he’ll likely have a stat-line somewhere in the neighborhood of 30-8.

Furthermore, Rodgers is driving the Packers down the field. He can throw the ball deep just as he can hit a receiver on a quick slant. His mobility in and out of the pocket is stellar; he might not be as fast as Vince Young, but he can escape a pass rush or tuck the ball and run as efficiently as anyone in the NFL. He averages 5.5 yards per carry and has scored three rushing touchdowns this season — few quarterbacks can put up numbers like that. Or, more specifically, few can put up those numbers and pass for 290 yards per week.

The one stat against him in his short career is his win-loss record. At 13-14, Rodgers’ winning percentage is mediocre. But even though some fans like to grade quarterbacks by their wins and losses, let‘s talk a little about the defense. Green Bay has scored at least 23 points in 10 games this season. The offense ranks 6th in scoring this season; last season it ranked 5th. The difference accounting for Green Bay’s higher win percentage this season is the defense: it ranks 12th this season, a huge step up from ranking 22nd as it did a year ago.

That said, the defense has lacked consistency. the Packers have only lost games in which their opponents scored at least 30 points. In fact, the average points per game allowed in wins is around 12. In losses it’s about 34.

The point: Rodgers and the offense are scoring enough points this season; they just need to count on the defense to keep opponents’ scores low. That will need to change when the postseason arrives because the Packers will be playing some high-scoring offenses like New Orleans or Minnesota. Both games will (likely) be in domes; Rodgers, per Sports Data Hub, is averaging 27 fantasy points in dome games. He’s passed for around 334 yards and at least two touchdowns in these games. That’s a good omen for Packers fans. The caveat: they’ve only played one “good” team in a dome: Minnesota. They lost.

Speaking of which, Green Bay has only played a handful of potential playoff teams this season: Minnesota (twice), Dallas, and Cincinnati.

The only team they beat on that short list: Dallas, which, incidentally, has only beaten two teams above .500 — Atlanta (6-5) and Philadelphia (7-4).

At the end of the day, the Packers aren’t contenders, at least not in the postseason. The competition they’ll face is on par with the teams they’ve lost to this season. The defense has often struggled against the best teams on Green Bay’s schedule and, when it has, the Packers have unfailingly lost. Green Bay won’t have Aaron Kampman and Al Harris in the postseason; how will they face down Brett Favre and the Vikings or Drew Brees and the Saints? What about Kurt Warner and the Cardinals?

Green Bay is on a three game winning streak, and few quarterbacks look better than Aaron Rodgers. It’s just a shame he and the Packers have lit up shoddy competition while turning in losses against competitive teams. That’s not what January teams do. Not the successful ones.

The Redskins offense has been abysmal this season. They don’t score points, the running game is noticeably absent, and Jason Campbell looks lost. Their aging offensive line can neither protect Campbell — he’s been sacked 14 times this season, 7th most in the NFL — nor open lanes for the otherwise brilliant Clinton Portis, who has just one rushing touchdown this season.

Washington’s front office approached the situation, weighed the options, and decided Jim Zorn’s playcalling is the culprit.

I’m with you so far, Snyder and Co. But who you gonna call? Perhaps promote an assistant? Contact some of the talented head coaches anxious to get back to work, like Mike Shanahan or Mike Holmgren? No, you have a better plan? Alright, let’s hear it.

Sherman Lewis? Really? Now you’ve lost me.

Lewis has been retired from coaching for five years. Prior to that he was an assistant in Detroit during the 2003-2004 seasons. Those high-flying offenses averaged 16.9 and 18.5 points per game, finishing 26th and 24th in the NFL those seasons. But before you go questioning the move, realize that almost 17 points per game looks pretty darn good to a team averaging 13.2, as Washington has this season.

Now Lewis did have good seasons. He coached the Brett Favre-led Packers from 1992-1999 and did a fine job. In 2000 he went to Minnesota and coordinated the 5th ranked scoring offense in the NFL. Of course a year later it dropped off to 24th and he was fired, but I digress.

Washington’s problem isn’t its playcalling. That’s scapegoating for a much bigger problem. The attituted this team has had under Daniel Snyder hasn’t bred winning, only disappointment. They don’t have enough talent on offense to score points, their problems rooted with the offensive line and poor coaching.

The problem isn’t the plays, it’s the execution. They’ve been especially bad on third downs, converting just 22-of-74 (~30 percent) this season, and it’s growing more and more apparent Jason Campbell isn’t the guy to lead this offense. He’s not a west coast offense quarterback. He completed under 60 percent of his passes in two of the last three games and he’s thrown five interceptions in the last four. This weekend he completed 9-of-16 for 89 yards and a pick against the previously winless Chiefs who have otherwise allowed 266 passing yards per game and the fifth most passing touchdowns this season, two per game.

This is an offense without weapons, led by a misplaced quarterback, a running back past his prime, and a battered and aging offensive line. Its head coach is a lame duck who no one in the locker room believes in and its playcaller hasn’t looked at a playbook since 2004.

I’m guessing this offense won’t be shooting to the top of the NFL anytime soon this season. Or next, unless they start replacing the busted pieces.

The Hype

Chad Ochocinco (I’m already tired of calling him that) has told fans he’s going to do a Lambeau leap if he scores against the Packers. After watching the Bengals and Packers last week I’m not confident he’ll get that opportunity.

Green Bay’s defense was brilliant blitzing the Bears and forcing Jay Cutler into bad decisions and throws that resulted in four interceptions. Prior to that game Carson Palmer threw two interceptions; that evidence alone should be enough to make Cincy fans nervous.

When You Look at Cincinnati …

… you see an offense that needs a better line. Cedric Benson was held to under four yards per carry in spite of a 20-yard carry against the Broncos, and Carson Palmer was pressured into throwing two interceptions and getting sacked twice. Better offensive line play will be crucial to the Bengals success in this game.

The Broncos are not a great team this season. The Bengals had the game won until a miraculous catch by Brandon Stokley put the Broncos up with seconds left on the clock. This means two things: first, the Bengals can stop small ball and prevent a running attack pretty well; second, this offense looked awful when it scored 7 points.

If the Packers play even half as well on defense as they did last week, you’re going to see Carson Palmer under a lot of pressure and forced into throwing passes he shouldn’t. And you’re going to see a very limited running game from the Bengals.

When You Look at Green Bay …

… the offensive line (mostly looking at you, right tackle Allen Barbre) needs to protect Aaron Rodgers better, but the defense is brilliant. The Packers underachieved on offense last week in spite of all the Chicago turnovers. In fact, I’m not confident the Packers would have won last week if the Bears hadn’t audibled to an ill-advised fake punt deep inside their own territory.

The guy to really watch in this game is Ryan Grant. After the Packers established a bit of a running game the rest of the pieces fell into place and Rodgers had more time in the pocket. Grant looked quick and explosive last week in spite of his relatively pedestrian totals: 16 carries for 61 yards. But studying that game it’s important to see the connection between his improvement as the game progressed and the success of Aaron Rodgers. When he came alive in the second half, so did the passing game; expect a good dose of Ryan Grant throughout this game (18-20 touches).

One more thing: Jordy Nelson needs to meet Rodgers after practice to play catch. He dropped two passes last week and finished with no receptions. One of those incompletions could have put six points on the board. In all Green Bay’s offense dropped four passes, something that can’t happen in future games.

After Looking Around …

The Packers need to eliminate blunders on offense, and Allen Barbre needs to protect Rodgers better. Green Bay’s real strength will be its defense and blitzing, so don’t be surprised if Carson Palmer throws at least one more interception this week. The key for the Packers will be taking advantage of any turnovers. Likewise, the key for the Bengals will be to limit mistakes on offense and blitz the right side of Green Bay’s line on passing downs.

Expect the Packers to establish the run game throughout this one while Cincinnati employs a similar strategy. The team with the best offensive line play and blitz protection will win it in the end; that team is probably Green Bay.

Most Likely To …

… Go Big: Donald Driver — He struggled a little last week but his fight after making catches was telling. If he can limit mistakes he’ll be a big target for Aaron Rodgers; expect Driver to improve significantly over last week’s disappointing numbers.

… Go Home: Chad Ochocinco — The Packers blitzed a lot last week and that’s something to expect again this week. Unless the Bengals react well to the many packages Green Bay brings it’s going to be a long game for Cincinnati’s passing game. And Ochocinco is in for a very physical game against Green Bay’s top-notch man-coverage corners, Al Harris and Charles Woodson, especially after he told the media he’s going to do a Lambeau leap if he scores.

The Hype

It’s an NFC North matchup a week removed from Detroit’s blowout defeat and Minnesota’s 14 point-victory. Adrian Peterson made the fantasy players who drafted him one overall very happy when he carried the Vikings’ offense with 180 rushing yards and 3 ground scores. But don’t assume drafting Lions was the worst plan: Kevin Smith picked up 72 yards of offense and scored once while Calvin Johnson did what he could, taking his three receptions for 90 yards.

When You Look at Minnesota …

… you see a Vikings offense with untold potential and a defense with plenty to bring to the table. Brett Favre’s numbers weren’t gaudy, but he completed 67 percent of his passes and didn’t turn the ball over. Oh, and he did throw a touchdown pass to emerging threat Percy Harvin in the third quarter.

But as stated earlier, this was the Adrian Peterson circus: dude blew up against the Browns, rushing for 180 yards on 25 carries (that’s 7.2 per touch) and even catching a pass for 18 yards. That’s nearly 200 yards from scrimmage and three scores — enough to take a huge advantage over anyone in your fantasy league (unless they had Drew Brees, but that’s another article).

As I said before, Percy Harvin is looking pretty good himself. He’s a playmaker who caught 3 passes for 36 yards and a touchdown and added 2 carries for 22 yards. He’s scary fast and when he gets in the open field he’s liable to score at any time.

When You Look at Detroit …

… you see a team in rebuilding mode. Is 0-16 a possibility again? Well, maybe. Matthew Stafford rushed for a touchdown but also threw 3 picks in a bizarro twist. He didn’t complete half his passes (he was 16-of-37) but he did manage to break 200 passing yards. Leagues that penalize for interceptions should steer clear of the rookie.

The biggest problem for Detroit in this game was New Orleans offense. Brees threw 6 touchdowns and was a relentless force, and the Lions had no answer. That kept the ball in Stafford’s hands and prevented the offense from focusing on the run like I’m sure it wished it could.

Having said that, Kevin Smith carried 15 times for 20 yards. That’s pretty inexcusable from any perspective. Still, if he can get some traction it will be a huge boon for the offense. The Lions need to establish an effective running game so Stafford doesn’t need to put the ball in the air. After all, New Orleans wasn’t noted for its pass defense in the past; either they’re great this season or the Lions have a nervous and ill-prepared rookie quarterback. If it’s the latter the Lions are in for some big struggles again in 2009.

After Looking Around …

Detroit’s offense only scored 20 points — two touchdowns and a pair of field goals — and the defense allowed Drew Brees to pass for 358 yards and Mike Bell to rush for 143 yards. That’s outrageous. The Lions must contain Adrian Peterson and force Brett Favre to beat them or they’re in for another embarrassing defeat.

The Vikings must establish the running game and do what New Orleans did last week: stop the run and force Stafford to beat them. He’s uncomfortable under pressure and he tries to force success; asking him to beat the defense could result in some big turnovers.

Most Likely To …

… Go Big: Adrian Peterson — Yeah, again. If Mike Bell can rush for 143 yards Adrian Peterson can break 100 without much trouble. Granted, Detroit will focus to stop the run; but then again, there’s no doubt they gameplanned to stop Drew Brees last week. We all know what happened on gameday.

… Bonus Go Big: Calvin Johnson — I know Stafford struggled last week and I don’t expect a big game from him this week, but Calvin Johnson is a phenomenal wide receiver. Remember, he took 3 passes 90 yards last week. If the Lions need to play catch-up, he’ll be the go-to receiver. And (brief) history has shown he’s successful against the Vikings: only once (in four games) did the Vikings keep him out of the endzone and his yardage is typically respectable: he finished with 84 and 85 yards in their two meetings last year.

… Go Home: Kevin Smith — The Vikings have a notoriously stout run defense and they’ll want Matthew Stafford throwing passes. Kevin Smith is unlikely to have a great game against them; last season he rushed for 126 yards in two games and failed to score a touchdown. Expect nothing different in this meeting.

Eddie Royal is turning into a big fantasy prospect this season, drawing comparisons to New England’s Wes Welker, and with Brandon Marshall creating a stir, his stock continues to rise.

The question that must first be answered, however, is whether his numbers can remain steady in the face of Denver’s quarterback conundrum.

Kyle Orton and Chris Simms are both mediocre quarterbacks on paper. Furthermore, they’re both jotted down on the team’s list of injuries. Orton dislocated his finger Sunday night and was forced to leave the game; Simms has been MIA for some time now and doesn’t figure to be ready before the season starts.

Both these issues are exacerbated because what these players have displayed this preseason is anything but heartening. Simms played in the first two games and looks like the superior quarterback against second team defenses, while Orton has looked awful at points during preseason.

Orton opened up against San Francisco with three turnovers on three drives, and a week later against Seattle he tried lofting a wobbly left-handed pass into the endzone; not surprisingly, he was intercepted. Against the Broncos Sunday night he looked a bit uncomfortable in the pocket and was consistently throwing passes behind his receivers. He struggled to hit anyone in stride and it no doubt cost the Broncos yardage after the catch. Overall his numbers were the best they’ve been this preseason, but he didn’t move the chains enough and the offense finished with three first half points.

Getting back to the receiver in question, Eddie Royal has remained mostly immune to these struggles during the season. He has 13 receptions for 134 yards this preseason and is clearly a possession receiver. Unfortunately, Royal has no touchdown receptions yet, no doubt because the Broncos have thrown just three during the preseason.

Royal’s numbers are also being inflated a bit because Brandon Marshall is suspended. When he returns, the reception distribution will shift, and Royal might not get as many receptions.

Assuming he does get 100 by the end of this season, however, that translates to about 1,000 receiving yards; one can only hope he’ll get a few touchdowns to complement those yards.

Unhealthy quarterbacks are hindering Denver’s offense and creating a stir with the fans, especially after the Denver faithful watched Jay Cutler enter Invesco to give the Bears a 17-3 halftime lead. He looked solid and unshakable; the same can’t be said of Orton or Simms. The Broncos need more offense and that will need to start at the quarterback position; a lack of offense will lead to a lack of points, and as fantasy players are concerned, Royal needs endzone receptions; there is no avoiding it. Whoever lines up at quarterback is going to feed him the football, but if the offense can’t get down the field he can’t score.

Bills head coach Dick Jauron must be frustrated, and perhaps alarmed at this point with his struggling defense and plodding offense. Buffalo’s offense has been especially nauseating this preseason, so much so that I think they’d kill to be playing as well as Oakland circa 2006.

15 series for the starters this preseason, and 3 points to show for it. 0.2 points per series? Seriously?

Certainly it’s important to remember that this is preseason, and the Bills have been struggling in exhibition games. But week three is considered by many to be “dress rehearsal” for the regular season; Buffalo lost to Pittsburgh, 17-0. Those points were scored in the first half, during which Pittsburgh controlled the ball for 21 minutes.

Less than nine minutes of offense for the starters?

Over the course of the game the offense managed just eight total first downs and did not convert a single third down. The offense moved the chains a mere three times in the first half and just once in the first quarter. Buffalo may have turned the ball over just once, but 135 yards of offense over the course of the game isn’t enough. Including penalties, the offense moved 55 yards in the first half and never past their own 42 yard line. If the Bills can’t convert on third down it will be a very long season for Bills fans. Again.

Buffalo played a no-huddle, no-success offense during the game; in other words, drives were short and bitter. Trent Edwards didn’t complete a pass for more than six yards until nearly midway through the second quarter. Prior to that he had thrown an interception returned for a touchdown and completed 3-of-7 for 11 yards.

The biggest missing piece of Buffalo’s puzzle at this stage is Terrell Owens, who has missed three weeks with a toe injury. In his absence the Bills have found limited success, having been outscored 68-6 before halftime in four preseason games. Buffalo is actually averaging less than one point per first half.

The question we must ask is, can Terrell Owens breathe life into this offense? He’s certainly a great wide receiver and a playmaker, but his age is a concern and Trent Edwards has been very disappointing thus far. Even if he’s on the field, it seems unlikely he’ll be enough of a presence to turn this team around in a hurry, especially after missing three weeks of practice.

This situation is shaping to be an ugly one. It seems unlikely Owens has formed a rapport with Edwards with all the time missed; that could lead to Buffalo stumbling out of the gate to start the season. The division projects to be very competitive again with the return of Tom Brady and emergence of Miami as a legitimate contender last season.

One can only hope Owens doesn’t create a locker room schism or beg for the football following a few rough outings this season. I would never wish that upon any team, especially one poised to draft early when April rolls around.

The storyline of Sunday Night’s broadcast of the Chicago at Denver was focused on quarterback Jay Cutler’s return to his old stomping grounds. As expected he was greeted with loud boos as he took the field, and he began the game a bit shaky.

Jay Cutler’s performance was far from troubling, though. Despite the media spotlight of the game and the expectations put on him, he calmed his nerves early and finished strong. His final numbers were solid: 15-of-21 for 144 yards and 1 touchdown.

The only issue with Cutler’s numbers was his low yards per attempt average. Barring one completion that covered 43 yards, Cutler averaged just a tad over five yards when he stepped back to pass. That’s a pretty low number, but by no means was it a bad performance on his part.

Perhaps most surprising was how often the Bears passed the ball — Cutler had 21 pass attempts while Matt Forte rushed the ball just 9 times. Remember, this was during just one half. Had they played a complete game, Cutler would have easily had 30-35 pass attempts.

When it comes to troubling performances, the biggest question mark was Chicago’s offensive line.

As fans recall, Denver’s defensive line and pass rush were arguably the league’s worst a season ago. No doubt that part of the team was a critical reason the Broncos missed the postseason.

In Sunday’s game the Broncos were able to get to Jay Cutler too often, especially when Chicago’s offensive playcall was a drop-back pass. Even when Denver was rushing three linemen Cutler was under pressure. Only when he was on the move, most often on a play action misdirection, did Cutler look comfortable throwing the ball.

In addition, Matt Forte struggled to run the ball. Before being relieved in the second half, Forte had a lot of trouble getting traction and carried 9 times for just 21 yards. He did find the endzone twice, once rushing, but he broke three yards on just two carries that moved the ball four and six yards, respectively. The other 7 carries were responsible for the remaining 11 yards, a paltry 1.5 yards per attempt average.

Whether this game was just an anomaly is something of a question mark. Against the Giants last week Forte averaged 6.4 yards per carry, a number boosted by a 32-yard touchdown scamper. When you average the rest of his carries, the adjusted number is 3.3.

The good news is the team’s passing game did turn around against Denver, and in the second half Adrian Peterson rushed for 68 yards on 12 carries. Cutler’s favorite target of the night was unquestionably Greg Olsen who caught three passes for 47 yards. As expected, he figures to be a big part of the Bears’ passing game and should be a strong fantasy draft pick.

Devin Hester had three receptions for 24 yards in a possession receiver role, while Cutler was forced to dump the ball off to Forte on four occasions; one of those shuffle passes resulted in a touchdown near the end of the first half.

Overall, Chicago’s offense began slow and finished the half strong putting up 14 points in the second quarter. Jay Cutler looked solid and comfortable in spite of the pressure, and it seems he remains at his best out of play action and on the move. The passing game looked solid and Chicago’s receiving corps stepped up the plate in its biggest game of the preseason. Expect good things when the regular season rolls around in a couple weeks.

The Cincinnati Bengals are currently headlining as every experts’ “sleeper” pick. To be honest, the idea of sleeper picks is a bit odd to me since there’s a certain sense of unanimity to them, like last season when Arizona was picked as a sleeper by every pundit with a microphone or keyboard.

Griping aside, there’s at least one flaw in the logic of picking the Bengals: their offensive line.

Cincinnati allowed six sacks and Cedric Benson earned just 17 yards on 5 carries Thursday night against the Rams. This is a team with a mediocre pass rush and overall defensive line. Remember, St. Louis finished 26th in yards allowed last season.

Note that Carson Palmer didn’t play this game because his ankle continues to bother him. Recent reports suggest he could be held out the rest of preseason. But Carson or no Carson, allowing so many sacks and struggling so mightily to run the football is simply unacceptable.

The team’s first drive was a disaster: JT O’Sullivan was sacked on the first play and he fumbled moments later to end it. Drive number two started off on the wrong foot as well, and Cedric Benson was brought down in the backfield for a loss of four. Three plays later O’Sullivan was sacked again. Three after that and the Bengals were punting.

As I mentioned earlier, Benson finished with rough rushing totals, but it’s hard to understand those numbers without knowing the details. Three of those runs were positive gains of 4, 8, and 12 yards. A math whiz will tell you that’s an average of eight yards per carry — pretty solid. Unfortunately, two big losses of 3 and 4 yards set Benson’s total back to 17 yards and dropped his average by more than 50 percent.

The rest of the first half was more bad running from the rest of the squad. Jeremi Johnson had one carry for three yards while Brian Leonard rushed four times for six yards, though, in fairness, he did score one touchdown. Bernard Scott was a mix-bag of emotions, carrying for 13 yards before the two minute warning after an earlier fumble was returned for a touchdown at the beginning of the second quarter.

If one wants to look back at earlier games this preseason the picture doesn’t get brighter. Benson averaged 3.5 yards per carry on 8 carries against the Saints week one and was slowed to 2.8 yards per carry a week later against the Patriots. The Bengals scored just seven points in each of those games, surprisingly winning one against the Patriots.

Did I mention yet that the Bengals are 32nd in the league in sacks allowed this preseason? They are. They’ve also scored just one rushing touchdown, despite being ranked 1st in the league in rushing attempts. 94 attempts, one score. The Oakland Raiders have rushed just 44 times this preseason and have scored 3 times.

Embarrassing.

Yes, it’s preseason. And as fans like to point out, the Detroit Lions were great in the first three preseason games last year before losing 16 in a row during the regular season.

Nonetheless, if we are to glean something from the Bengals’ first three preseason games, initial indications suggest this team is in for a very long season if its offensive line continues to struggle like it has thus far. In other words, these sleepers might not wake up until 2010 … or later.

The Minnesota Vikings have a lot going their way. They have arguably the league’s best running back, Adrian Peterson, who led the offense to rank fifth in rushing last season and first in 2007. They have the league’s best run-stuffing defense, thanks in no small part to the “Williams Wall,” which consists of dominant defensive tackles Kevin and Pat Williams and which, by the way, may not wind up getting suspended after all. - more on that in a bit. And soon they may have one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history playing under center, perhaps being the linchpin that finally puts the franchise over the top and into the Super Bowl.

And wouldn’t that be great for Minnesota fans? No more would they have to endure the amusing jokes aimed their way. (Set up: What do you call a Vikings player with a Super Bowl ring? Punchline: A thief.) No more would they have to watch their team seemingly put it all together, but choke down the stretch. (I’m looking at you, 1999 Minnesota Vikings roster, and every Vikings roster from the 1970s.) But more important, they could boast with pride that they were the best team in the NFL, at least for one season.

Too bad nothing is certain for this team.

The defense will be mostly unchanged. We know that much, at least. Barring unforeseen injuries or a late season suspension of the Williams Wall – a district judge recently ruled on their behalf and blocked a four game suspension – this defense is going to be as solid as it has been in recent seasons. Remember, this is a defense that has finished first in the NFL against the run each of the past three years, so solid is probably a significant understatement. The point is this defense is going to keep games close, even when the offense isn’t scoring a lot.

So let’s talk about the offense. It was clear last season its biggest problem was throwing the ball. When the team was successful passing the ball (or at least what the Vikings call “successful”), the offense was able to thrive. Hey, Adrian Peterson can wear down any defense and pick up yards, but at some point that just isn’t enough. He can’t score three times a game every week of the season, but it’s going to take that many touchdowns – on average – to get this team to the playoffs.

Unfortunately, nothing is settled at quarterback. As anyone can guess, that’s going to be a problem until the situation is resolved and a permanent starter is picked.

The good news is if Brett Favre returns, the decision is easy: he’s the guy. The Vikings aren’t going to pay him $6-8 million for one season unless he’s the starter. Perhaps more important, he isn’t going to come back to the NFL for one season unless he’s guaranteed the starting role. Of course, even if he did have to compete he wouldn’t have much trouble beating out Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson, but that’s neither here nor there.

Assuming Favre returns to the NFC North for one last hurrah (emphasis on “one”) the question becomes, how well can he play for one more season? Personally, I subscribe to the notion he can still play as well as he did two seasons ago when he led the Packers to a 13-3 record, with just one caveat: his shoulder. If he’s not 100 percent, I don’t think the Vikings should make the move to sign him. Yes, he’s talented, but what if he gets hurt? Worse, what if he decides he wants to play hurt like he did last season in New York? The Jets saw their season unravel and Eric Mangini seemed too powerless to do anything about it.

Consider what Jerry Rice told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune recently:

“Then everything backfires [if he’s injured]. You’ve got a major problem. Also you have to look at the scenario that happened in New York. If he pretty much distances himself completely from the players, then all of a sudden you’re going to divide the players because a lot of the players are going to say, ‘Hey, Tarvaris Jackson should be in here or Sage.’

“You don’t want this to divide the team. So this could really backfire.”

The risk-reward ratio is significant, which is why I stand by my reasoning: if the Vikings don’t think he’s 100 percent right now, they should not make the move to bring him to Minnesota.

Regardless of Favre’s return, however, I don’t think you see an offense that functions a whole heckuva lot different than it has in recent seasons. Adrian Peterson is still the catalyst, and he’s going to shoulder most of the offense by carrying the ball 20-25 times per game. The offense may pass more often with Favre, but it’s not going to be a significant difference. I don’t think this is an offense that’s going to throw the ball more than 500 times, even if Favre is under center.

Beyond Favre, the Vikings have already acquired a useful weapon who may wind up being a game breaker for the team: Percy Harvin. He had a troubled past in Florida, but if he can keep himself out of trouble and away from Roger Goodell’s wrath, I think he could be a big playmaker in this offense.

Lately he’s been taking direct snaps out of the Vikings version of the Wildcat offense and has impressed Adrian Peterson.

“I look at him as a guy that, once you get the ball in his hands, he can definitely make a play and take it to the house,” Peterson recently said.

More important, he’s going to give the Vikings more options with the football to keep defenses on their toes. Nothing throws a defense off like a trick play; even if an opponent stops the offense, the fact that they’re pulling a rabbit out of a hat, so to speak, gets in the defense’s head and makes them more dangerous.

But it could all backfire for the Vikings. Maybe Favre doesn’t return, or if he does, maybe he’s not everyone’s best buddy in the locker room, leaving the team has a quarterback controversy on its hands. Maybe Percy Harvin winds up getting into trouble, or his athleticism isn’t enough year one to take him where his potential suggests. Or maybe the Williams Wall will be suspended in the end, leaving a gaping hole in the middle of the defensive line. Or maybe …

Or maybe this will be the best team Minnesota has fielded in a long time, the team led by Brett Favre in his final season as a pro, the team that answers the critics and puts opponents in their place.

Only one way to find out. Only one season to do it.

When news broke today that Jay Cutler was headed to Chicago, the first thought on my mind was, look out NFC North, here come da Bears.

The one thing the Bears have lacked since the days of Jim McMahon is a quarterback. They’ve gone through Tomczak, Harbaugh, Walsh, Kramer, Matthews, McNown, Miller, Stewart, Hutchinson, Grossman, Griese, and Orton since 1989. None worked out.

Cutler gives them the piece that’s been missing.

His fantasy impact will be substantial. Not only will Chicago have to rely less on the run than in the past - though ostensibly the team will still have a strong, run-first offense - but it will also open up the running game. In past seasons defenses were able to focus more on the run than the pass because no quarterback really struck fear into the heart of defenses - but that’s about to change.

With one of the strongest arms in the league, Cutler is the best quarterback the division has seen, outside of Favre, in decades. Plus, withan improving offensive line to support him, Cutler will have the opportunity to make things happen on the field that Bears fans simply aren’t accustomed to seeing - at least not from a player on their sideline.

Cutler’s move does come with a caveat, however. Namely, what does Cutler have to work with? In Denver he was able to utilize Brandon Marshal and a slew of other talented receiving targets, but does he have the same kind of talent in Chicago? It’s difficult to say, since we don’t know whether the Bears struggles at receiver have been due to the guy tossing the football or the guys catching it. Still, it’s safe to assume Chicago’s been lacking talent.

Worth noting, too, is that Chicago gave up a lot - in terms of draft picks - to acquire Cutler, which means they’ll have fewer premium slots to draft a wide receiver. Of course, no one ever said a solid receiver has to come out of the first round; unlike some other positions, the transition of wide receiver to the NFL isn’t a particularly demanding one.

And one must remember there is some talent here for Jay to work with. Devin Hester is uberfast and by the end of last season his game was coming around. It was expected he’d stumble a little bit in the transition, but he has the potential to be a very impressive target with the right quarterback - Cutler might be that guy.

Cutler will also be united with Earl Bennett, who played in Vanderbilt - Cutler’s alma mater - before arriving in Chicago last season. Meanwhile, Rashied Davis has moved to the the slot wide receiver spot; last season he dropped some key passes, allowing Brandon Lloyd to move ahead of him. Bears wide receivers will have to get over this problem in 2009 if Cutler’s impact is to be fully realized.

I’ll also admit right now that I’m one to believe the Bears have a good pair of tight ends. Greg Olsen reminds me a little of Tony Scheffler, who was improving by the week in Denver. He’s an excellent receiving tight end who needs to build on his blocking skills, but he’s a big, fast target. Desmon Clark, on the other hand, isn’t quite the receiver Scheffy is, but he can block well and he’s a reliable target.

All-in-all, the Bears have a relatively mediocre staff of targets, but one that should see gains in production with Cutler gunning in the pocket.

After looking at how he’ll probably positively affect the rest of the offense, it’s worth saying here that Cutler’s own production will probably see a natural decline. He’s not going to throw as many passes as he did last season and he probably won’t throw as many touchdowns, either. It’s going to take more than one offseason for him to grow accustomed to the offense and for the coaching staff to develop a game plan around his skill set. He’ll probably have a good season, yes, but his numbers likely won’t match those from 2008.

All things considered, it’s nice to finally be able to tell readers to draft Chicago in 2009 - the offense has real potential and serious upside.