First of all, is Adrian Peterson the real deal?

He sure is. Peterson’s blend of size and speed make him one of the most dynamic runners in the NFL. He has the potential to break 2,000 yards and has set it as a goal for himself. Will he average 5.6 yards per carry again? Maybe, maybe not. But he will carry this team as far as they go, and I’m projecting him to finish with at least 1,500 rushing yards, 200 receiving yards, and 15 touchdowns.

What’s to make of the passing game? And, more specifically, what can we expect from Tarvaris Jackson?

He’s a young quarterback with limited potential playing in an offense that will run the ball 60% of the time. In short, he’s not a fantasy starter and he’s a bit of a stretch as a QB2. Luckily, the Vikings added Bernard Berrian to his repertoire, increasing his projections to a degree. The Vikings are going to have an adequate-at-best passing game, but the success of Jackson and Co. depends very much on Adrian Peterson. If AD has a great season, the Vikings passing game will benefit. But if he’s under-utilized, injured, or just plain ineffective, this team will struggle mightily on offense.

Bernard Berrian - what does he bring to the table?

Berrian can stretch the field and is the first Vikings receiver since Randy Moss to have that kind of potential. Of course, most who remember his days with the Bears can recall that he lacked consistency. There were times when he flat out dropped passes he should have caught - and there were times when he made spectacular catches. Still, he’s a massive upgrade at the wide receiver position in Minnesota, and he should be drafted as a solid lower-end WR2 or very good WR3. I’m projecting for at least 70 receptions, 1,000 yards, and 6 touchdowns.

Are the Vikings the favorites in the NFC North?

At this point it’s difficult to say. If Brett Favre returns to Green Bay, one has to think the Packers are the favorites. But if Tarvaris Jackson has a good season for the Vikings, Minnesota could win the division. At this point, I’d give the Packers a slight (very slight) edge over the Vikings because I have more faith in Green Bay’s passing game than Minnesota’s, but this is definitely a case in which it’s too close to accurately call.

Is Larry Johnson finished as an elite fantasy back?

Johnson, in my opinion, is a very talented back who was - at least to some extent - the product of a system that had one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. When the seams of that started to come apart last season he struggled. Now, having said that, I should also point out that Johnson did begin to catch his stride in the several games before his season-ending injury. In weeks 4, 6, and 7 he broke 100 yards rushing with a respectable 4.4 ypc average, and he scored his only touchdowns of the season in weeks 6, 7, and 9. I think he’ll have a better year this season. I don’t expect him to produce like a top five fantasy running back this season, but I do expect him to play the entire season like he began in 6 last year. Project for at least 1,300 rushing yards, 350 receiving yards, and 12 touchdowns and draft him in the mid-late first round.

What’s going on with the Chiefs quarterback situation - is Croyle really the guy?

Evidently, yes. The latest word is that the Chiefs may consider shopping Damon Huard because Tyler Thigpen - yes, Tyler Thigpen - may have earned the number two spot. I must admit that I was a little surprised when the Chiefs didn’t draft a quarterback high, but the team apparently has faith in Croyle, who was pretty mediocre last season, completing 56.7 percent of his passes and throwing 6 touchdowns-interceptions. Still, Chiefs o-coordinator Chan Gailey believes Croyle can be a franchise quarterback (”there’s no question” he can). Personally, I don’t think he has that kind of potential, but I’ll be interested to see how he responds to the change in coordinators.

Alright, so is Dwayne Bowe a good fantasy pick?

Bowe, who emerged as a rookie last season to be the Chiefs go-to wide receiver, is definitely a good fantasy pick. I do question how many touchdowns he’ll score and how the passing game will change with Croyle as the primary passer, but Bowe remains a good WR2. He might break 80 receptions, and I definitely expect at least 1,100 yards this year with 8 touchdowns.

Is Tony Gonzalez still a fantasy stud at tight end?

Absolutely. Gonzo, who had one of the best seasons of his career last year, continues to amaze me. I don’t know if he’ll repeat those numbers (99 receptions, 1,172 yards, and 5 touchdowns) but I do know that Croyle is going to be looking his way a lot. Even at age 32, I think that Gonzalez is a top three tight end (maybe four if you value Winslow a little higher) who should have another great season with at least 80 receptions, 1,000 yards, and five touchdowns.

Where will the Chiefs finish in the West?

Third, behind San Diego and Denver with a 7-9 record. Kansas City has potential, no doubt about it, but I don’t think they’ll reach it this season. Croyle lacks experience and I’m not sold on the offensive line.

Is Seattle a serious contender in the NFC?

First, let’s consider which teams are “serious” contenders: Dallas, New York, and … well, the NFC is loaded with more questions than answers, with young, talented teams springing up everywhere (Minnesota and Green Bay are two excellent examples). Would I consider Seattle a “serious” contender? Sure, if this running back by committee approach works.

How will this running back by committee approach work?

At this point it appears that Julius Jones is the frontrunner to take the majority of touches, but Maurice Morris will also get his fair share of the load. The primary third down back appears to be fullback Leonard Weaver and who the heck knows how the team will use T.J. Duckett. Not one running back on the team has proven in his career he can carry 20-25 times per game and I wouldn’t expect one to this season. If you’re looking for a 1,000 yard rusher you might want to check elsewhere - this team is going to pass the ball more than it runs it and the leading rusher will probably have around 900 yards. And that person will probably be Jones, the most draftable of the boys in the backfield. Still, I wouldn’t draft any of them in the first four rounds of a draft (assuming 12 teams).

Will Matt Hasselbeck repeat his production?

Hasselbeck was quietly one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in the NFL last season, passing for nearly 4,000 yards and throwing 30 touchdowns in lieu of a running game. He also had three 300-yard games and six 275-yard games, and in just one game did he not throw a touchdown vs. ten 2+ touchdown games. Will he repeat? Not exactly. He’s one of the league’s best and most consistent passers when he’s healthy, but I don’t expect him to throw 30 TDs again. Instead, project for at least 3,600 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.

What’s the word on Nate Burleson?

According to reports, he’s been brilliant in camp. He’s shown a lot of consistency, and owners should anticipate for him to have a season that sees more throws his way as his role expands. Project for at least 60 receptions, 800 yards, and 8 touchdowns.

How will the Seahawks finish?

Based on history, I’d say 10-6 and first place in the division. This is a team that could win more games, however, if the running game takes off and gives defenses reasons to respect it.

Assuming Favre does return, the Packers have two options: start him or send him elsewhere. If the Packers pick option A, they run the risk of alienating heir-apparent Aaron Rodgers. If the team picks option B they run the risk of alienating the fans and sending one of the best quarterbacks in the league to a conference rival. What happens if the Packers meet a Brett Favre-led team in the postseason? What happens if he ends up with a division rival? (This, however, seems unlikely and it’s more probable the team asks him not to join Chicago or Minnesota.)

It’s not impossible to imagine Favre in another uniform - other great quarterbacks (Joe Namath and Joe Montana, to name a couple) have finished their careers wearing foreign jerseys. But Brett Favre represents Green Bay. He lifted this franchise up and put the tiny city in Wisconsin back on the map after two decades of losing. To think of him wearing a Bears uniform is to imagine Peyton Manning wearing a Patriots uniform or John Elway retiring an Oakland Raider. As King wrote in his column, “Playing for any old NFL team would be crime enough to many of his faithful, but playing for a rival like Minnesota or Chicago would be like Johnny Damon spurning the Red Sox for the Yankees. Times five.”

If Favre does return, I expect the Packers will keep him around at the risk of alienating Aaron Rodgers, although one must admit it would be a cruel move, especially after the team drafted Brian Brohm. Green Bay doesn’t want Favre to return, but the franchise can’t risk letting him leave. What if he ends up in Minnesota? Or Chicago?

The honest truth, when you look at it from all angles, is  that Favre is being unreasonable in this instance. I love Number Four as much as any fan, but he’s not being fair to the Pckers. He’s forcing a team that has already moved on to either tell Rodgers he’s going to be spending a fourth season on the bench (and thus creating a grudge Rodgers will remember when his contract is up in 2009) or muck up his legacy with the Packers and the Packer-faithful by releasing him to an open market.

Favre retired after one of the best seasons of his career, and he retired after leading the Packers to the NFC Title game. The last thing anyone wants is for him to retire after leading the Vikings to a division title and a sweep of the Rodgers-led Packers or, worse, the Packers sacrificing their future to appease the Hall of Fame quarterback and keep him around.

Stay retired, Brett. Do it for the franchise. Or, at the very least, do it for the fans. 

Let’s start with Philip Rivers - is he a franchise quarterback?

It’s been two full seasons now and Rivers has proven himself a competent - though at times brash and annoying - young quarterback. Last season, however, he was, as noted earlier, erratic with the football and inconsistent. His touchdown totals were down from the season before and his interceptions were way up (from 9 to 15), despite having the same number of pass attempts. His rating also dropped nearly 10 points, though all of this can be attributed to the absence of Shottenheimer. That being said, Rivers didn’t make smart throws and he just looked like a different quarterback. In six games he passed for fewer than 160 yards and in five of the first nine games of the season he failed to throw a touchdown pass. Rivers may or may not be a franchise quarterback. At age 26, he isn’t even close to reaching his potential or maturity as an NFL quarterback. This season I expect him to rebound, but again have weeks of inconsistency. Project for at least 3,400 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions.

Will the absence of Michael Turner make any difference?

Not enough of a difference to affect fantasy football owners. Turner was a great in the closer role, finishing up games and giving LaDainian Tomlinson breathers. But he was never good enough to make fans forget about LT, and it won’t be a huge deal that he’s gone unless Tomlinson is injured at some point. In the meantime, keep an eye on Marcus Thomas and Jacob Hester, as those two will be gunning for the primary spot behind Tomlinson.

Is Antonio Gates still the best fantasy tight end?

No, but he’s darn close. Jason Witten has supplanted Gates to be the league’s most productive tight end, mostly due to Dallas’s offensive scheme which favors passing the football. Gates will still have a great season and should be the second tight end off your draft board.

Is San Diego the best fantasy defense?

Yes. San Diego has been stellar the past two seasons at keeping opponents off the board, ranking 1st and 5th in 2006 and 2007, respectively. Plus, the team forces turnovers (they ranked 1st in interceptions last season and 2nd in fumbles) and creates sacks (42 last year).

Are the Chargers favorites in the AFC West this year?

Yes, but the Broncos are a wild card that could find a way to win the division. San Diego also proved last year that it can win in the playoffs and it still has Indianapolis’s number. I expect a solid 11-5 season for the Chargers and a short run in the postseason.

Last season’s bad season can be attributed to the situation at quarterback, right?

Sure, as long as one acknowledges that Rex Grossman and Brian Griese were only part of the problem. Don’t forget to pass blame on the offensive line which struggled to protect whoever stood in the pocket and failed to open up running lanes. And don’t forget that Chicago’s running game without Thomas Jones left the Bears with a pair of running backs who looked as if they were just jogging in place. Oh, and Chicago’s defense - the one that ranked 1st and 3rd in scoring the two season’s prior to last year - should probably catch a little blame, too. After all, it allowed opponents to drop 30+ points on the scoreboard five times last season (the Bears were 1-5 in those games).

But the Bears screwed up this offseason when they chose to stick to with Grossman and Orton, right?

Not necessarily, at least not in the short term. Both quarterbacks are victims of a poor offensive scheme and coaching. It’s not coincidence that the Bears haven’t had a decent quarterback in 20 years. The Bears historically have had good defenses and mediocre (or worse) offenses. Grossman has promise - he showed that in 2006 when he lit up defenses in several games - but he’s still relatively inexperienced, and his supporting cast is weak. Had the Bears drafted someone, he wouldn’t have made a great impact year one or two, so from that standpoint, Chicago was smart to stick with Grossman and Orton.

Alright but who will start?

At this point, I’d say Orton has the edge but Lovie Smith has told reporters that it’s a “tie” at this point. Neither quarterback is noticably better from a mechanical standpoint, but Orton might have a little more mobility (Grossman moves like a boulder in the pocket). I wouldn’t be surprised to see both quarterbacks making starts during the regular season.

Is anyone on this offense worth drafting?

Sure, both Matt Forte (RB) and Marty Booker (WR) are worth taking in a fantasy football draft. Forte is projected to be an every-down back in an offense that prefers running over throwing, so he should get between 275-300 touches this season, so it’s reasonable to project 1,100 rushing yards, 250 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns this season. Booker, meanwhile, will be the team’s go-to starting wide receiver in an offense with a poor passing game, so project for at least 65 receptions, 850 receiving yards, and 5 touchdowns. Make him a backup wide receiver, perhaps a WR4.

Will Chicago’s defense be better this season?

It can’t be any worse than last season and I fully expect it to bounce back this year. The Monsters of the Midway might not rank in the top five in scoring defense, but I would be surprised to see them not in the top 10.

How will Chicago do?

They’ll have an up-and-down season in a division without a clear-cut favorite. I’ll project a modest 8-8 record and 3rd place finish behind Minnesota and Green Bay.

What you’ll need: projections (preferably your own); a calculator or spreadsheet to figure out some averages (very little math is involved, I promise); knowledge and experience that comes with being a fan

It’s not a science. Let me make that clear: tiering is less about the numbers and more about the gut feelings you have about certain players. You’ll have to have a developed knowledge of the game that can only come from watching seasons of play and paying close attention (or researching) the game during the offseason.

It’s about grouping by risk/reward. This is the most basic way to look at it. Ultimately, what you’re doing is taking a bunch of projections and then re-ranking them based on how risky each pick is. Somone like Peyton Manning is a top-tier player because he’ll be a top five performer (high reward) and he’s never missed a start (low risk). Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, might be a fourth tier player because he plays in a solid offense with lots of weapons (high reward) but he’s injury-prone and we don’t know a lot about him (high risk).

There’s a generic way to look at this.

• Tier one players had a great season last year and are almost a lock to repeat. No one is going to question you when you draft one of them because everyone wants one. Keep it down to around three tier one players.
• Tier two players had a great season last year but might not repeat. Still, even if they aren’t as good as last year, you expect - worst case scenario - they will still be solid. Most positions will have between 5-10 players in this tier, based on how many you start each week.
• Tier three players didn’t have a great season last year but were solid nonetheless. In fact, they’ve always been solid and will probably be solid again this year. And you figure, hey, maybe if things go well, this will be the year they breakout season. The other type of player who fits this mold: the guy who has tremendous upside to the point that you will ignore the risk of drafting him.
• Tier four players are either those in their declining years or those who are high risk/reward (think about the Aaron Rodgers example).

Now that you’ve done this and tiered all your players, you’ll want to arrange your rankings and make them easier to interpret. The best way to do this: average what you’ve projected for all the players in the given tier and assign number to the tier. Doing this will allow you to quickly compare positions.

For example, your picks rolls around and you want to choose between a quarterback and a wide receiver. You look at your board and see there’s one second tier wide receiver left and five second tier quarterbacks. Noting this, you can see that you can draft that wide receiver here and probably get a good quarterback with your next pick.

Remember, this is just a guide. Tiering isn’t complicated, but, like I stated before, it’s more art than science, so you’ll need to get used to it. The best way? Try putting together your own tiers and then consult with a draft guide to see how they compare. Then put yourself in the shoes of the editor and think about why he or she classified a player in a different tier. Doing this is very educational and it will automatically make you more familiar with the players while giving you a valuable draft tool.

Happy tiering! 

Bush has carried 312 times for 1146 yards and 10 touchdowns … in 28 games over two seasons. His yard per carry average is a measly 3.7, and he hasn’t proven he can run between the tackles. His one saving grace is his receiving ability, but those numbers took a steep drop last season as he caught 73 passes (15 fewer than his rookie season).

Why? The Saints aren’t taking anyone by surprise anymore, and Bush is proving himself to be a jack-of-all-trades, master of none. He can catch a lot of passes, but he doesn’t get a ton of yards. He can run the ball but not effectively. He’s an electrifying talent, but he doesn’t find the endzone enough (just 6 times last season).

Let’s consider:

• Bush has one career 100-yard rushing game and that was two years ago.
  
• He also has two career 100-yard receiving games, but, again, those were two years ago.
  
• He’s scored 14 times, but he’s been held scoreless in 19 of his 28 game appearances.
  
• In just four games last season he averaged 4.0 yards per carry or more; in just as many games he averaged less than 3.0.
  
• He finished second on the team in receptions last season but 11th in yards per reception (lower, in fact, than fullback Mike Karney).

From a fantasy football standpoint, Reggie Bush has finished 17th and 24th among running backs the past two seasons. He’s also been one of the most inconsistent producers an owner can have. But, at the same time, he’s been a late first round, early second round draft choice.

Don’t reach on Bush again. He’s a third round draft pick at best (assuming a 12 team league), but there are many more running backs who will be far more consistent throughout the course of a season, so I suggest drafting them ahead of him.

Flashing Back

In an injury-plagued 2007 season, Jackson managed to rush for 1,002 yards, scoring 6 touchdons. Also, the offensive line was weak for most of the season, and the Rams uncharacteristically weak passing game failed to open up the running game. In truth, the Rams as a whole were a very disappointing team last season. Typically St. Louis field a top 10 offense year in and out, but last season the unit ranked 24th in yardage and 28th in points, mostly due to injuries.

Focusing on Jackson

2007 was Jackson’s fourth NFL season and at age 25 he has yet to hit his peak. Also, it should be noted that Jackson’s body was worn down from the year before, when the Rams gave him 346 carries and 90 receptions. It isn’t particularly surprising that he broke down a season later.

But when you look at his 2006 season, a couple numbers jump out. One, his yard per catch average (9.0) was relatively high for a running back. He definitely brings that extra dimension to his game and opens things up for the Rams to take advantage of his athleticism. Two, Jackson scored 16 touchdowns (though it should be noted that 10 came in the final four weeks of the season).

Looking Ahead

The Rams are poised to bounce back this season. The team should be healthy for the start of the season, and the offensive line can’t be any worse than it was last year. Also, the passing game should bounce back, to take pressure off the running game while tossing Jackson a few more receptions. And expect the Rams to run the ball more with a healthy Jackson in the backfield.

Project for at least 1,376 rushing yards, 55 receptions, 415 receiving yards, and 15 total touchdowns. Those are very good numbers for any RB1, and they could make Jackson the best fantasy football running back drafted. He’s a safer pick than Adrian Peterson and he has more potential than Brian Westbrook because he’ll get more touches.

Garrard is returning as the team’s starter, the Jaguars still have both components of their solid running game, and the passing game has been awarded a very athletic starting wide receiver in Jerry Porter. All things considered, this is going to be a very exciting season for the Jaguars, and for the first time since 2002, I won’t be surprised if the team manages to surpass Peyton Manning and Co. in the AFC South.

It all starts with Garrard. The veteran is a natural leader playing in an offense that won’t rely on him a lot, thanks to one of the best running games in pro football, but Del Rio will expect him to step in and make smart throws. Remember, he only threw 325 passes last season and the Jaguars ranked 27th in the NFL in pass attempts, but the team was 1st in terms of interceptions and 9th in touchdowns. 

Because of that running game and its success, I can envision Garrard having another very good season. Also, keep in mind how consistent he was last season: he threw at least one touchdown in all but one start and threw for at least 189 yards in all but two games, breaking 200 yards in 7 of his 12 starts.

Is he a starting fantasy quarterback? Not yet, but he’s a darn good backup, someone who won’t disappoint you when you put him in the lineup. Project for at least 3,000 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, and 200 rushing yards.