Eight weeks ago you could have written off the Indianapolis Colts, and I wouldn’t have complained. I might have told you to slow down because it is Indianapolis, but it would have hard to argue against forgetting about a 3-4 team trailing an undefeated division leader.

Eight weeks later and you’d be a fool to look past the Colts.

Indianapolis, while not necessarily blowing opponents out on a weekly basis, hasn’t lost a game since week eight and clinched the postseason tonight with a fourth quarter win over Jacksonville. And the catylist for this drastic turnaround is none other than everyone’s favorite commercial star, Peyton Manning.

Manning has turned his season around like few players can claim. Through the first eight weeks of the season he had thrown 10 touchdowns and 9 interceptions; hardly the numbers we expect from Peyton Manning. But since week nine’s big win over the New England Patriots, Manning has thrown 16 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions.

Let’s see:10 touchdowns + 9 interceptions = 3 wins + 4 losses 16 touchdowns + 3 interceptions = 8 wins + 0 losses. I think Colts fans can appreciate the second equation.

Why did Manning start the season with such a stumble? He was injured during preseason and missed practice during the period most players finish shaking off the rust and offenses perfect their timings. Manning didn’t have that opportunity this season. He had to shake off the rust during the regular season, while the Colts lost a key starter on defense, Bob Sanders, to an injury. Throughout the season Joseph Addai has been in and out of the lineup and the running game has been almost nonexistent, placing even more pressure on Manning’s shoulders.

But the Colts are playing like a team on fire, right now. The Manning (tee-hee) responsible is Peyton. He’s been the crucial piece of the puzzle that was at times missing during the first half of the season. But he and the Colts offense are firing on all cylinders now and I pity their opponents, especially those they’ll face in the postseason. The Colts are playing with a chip on their shoulders and will take advantage of the postseason to silence their critics.

Watch out, NFL contenders. Here comes Indianapolis, led by my bid for MVP, Peyton Manning.

Philip Rivers won’t be going to Hawaii this February unless he buys a plane ticket. Was he snubbed? Perhaps. Looking at his numbers, it’s hard to argue any quarterback with 28 touchdown passes and a 101.3 passer rating doesn’t deserve to go. But then again, two reasons probably kept Rivers out this season.

First, the NFL Pro Bowl is a popularity contest in the sense the fans make up 1/3 of the vote. And how any fan could possibly like the ultra-annoying Philip Rivers is beyond me. Based on watching him in games, and especially after seeing him in last season’s postseason game against Indianapolis, he just reminds of the athletic kid in gym class who no one likes. Of course being an unlikeable person should have nothing to do with being selected to the Pro Bowl, but it does. Player perception plays a big role in fans minds when picking.

Second, Rivers wasn’t necessarily snubbed for underqualified players. Brett Favre is a fan favorite and he’s a big reason the Jets improved so much since last season. He was an instant upgrade at a position desperately needing one, reflected by the fact New York has nine wins and a good shot at making the postseason this year. Peyton Manning turned his season around by the mid-point and has since played like the Manning we know and love; he’s throwing lots of touchdowns and avoiding interceptions. Jay Cutler has similar numbers, relative to Rivers, and he plays for a team without a running game. I know LaDainian Tomlinson has struggled this season, but Denver sent so many running backs to the IR it was forced to sign a player who was spending his days stocking shelves at a mall (Tatum Bell).

Oh, and those three players have one other thing going for them: they win. You can’t expect a quarterback, regardless of his individual numbers, to make the postseason when his team isn’t winning games. The quarterback is seen as the leader and face of a franchise in most instances. Selecting a quarterback playing for a team with 6 wins is a difficult thing to do when other qualified players are in contention to make the postseason.

That’s how Pro Bowl voting goes. Teams that win will send more players than teams that don’t, especially at the quarterback position. Is it fair? That’s not an easy question to answer. When we rate the greatest quarterbacks in pro football history, Joe Montana is usually at the top. A lot of fans prefer John Elway over Dan Marino, even though Marino had more records at the end of his career. Montana and Elway won Super Bowls. Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, and Jay Cutler are positioning their respective teams this season to do that this season. Rivers isn’t. Is it so wrong and unfair if that’s the defining difference? I don’t think so.

Never doubt a team coached by Tony Dungy and led by Peyton Manning. That’s a lesson the rest of the NFL is quickly getting reacquainted to. Just over four weeks ago it would have been easy to discard the Colts in the same vein as San Diego. Stumbling to 3-4, on the heels of two consecutive losses, and in a division in which the leader was 7-0, this was hardly a team worth considering for the postseason. But four weeks and as many wins later, it may be worth jumping back on the Colts bandwagon.

Indianapolis isn’t winning in the fashion of a rout. On the contrary, the Colts are hanging with their opponents - among them, New England, Pittsburgh, Houston, and San Diego - until the very end before pulling ahead with little time on the clock. Against San Diego last weekend the Colts fell behind with 1:35 showing on the clock. Eight plays and ninety seconds later and the Colts regained the lead. Manning drove his offense down the field as he has so often this season to set up Adam Vinatieri for the game-winner.

Looking at the Colts now, with three relatively easy games in succession next on the schedule (Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Detroit), and it’s not hard to imagine ten or more wins. Is that enough to make the postseason in the AFC? It very well could be. The AFC West certainly won’t more than the division winner (Denver currently leads with a 6-5 record), leaving Indianapolis to basically contend with two others: New England and Baltimore, both of which have a more difficult remaining schedule.

Then again, one can’t necessarily rule out Indianapolis winning the AFC South. Understand that it’s a long shot, but Tennessee, which was proved vulnerable this weekend in a blowout defeat at the hands of the New York Jets, could potentially lose its final three games (at Houston, vs. Pittsburgh, and at Indianapolis). If that does happen and the Titans fall to 12-4 and the Colts win out (to improve to 12-4), the Colts hold the tie-breaker. Because Tennessee would slip to 8-4 in conference and the Colts would improve to 10-2, Indianapolis holds the NFL’s fourth tiebreaker: the best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

Is it likely? No, of course not. Is it possible? Absolutely. The NFL always sees something crazy happen down the stretch. You can count on it happening every season. And what would be crazier than a 10-0 team with a four game division lead dropping four of its last six, including one against the team four games behind, to ultimately lose the division due to the NFL’s fourth tie-breaker?

Of course, it’s far more likely Indianapolis makes it as a Wild Card team. What does that mean? Basically, to make the Super Bowl the Colts would need three road games and a game played on neutral turf. The Colts have actually won more often on the road this season (4-2) than they have at home (3-2). More interesting is Peyton Manning’s progression this season over the course of three months. His passer rating in September was a very un-Manning-ish 73.1. But in October it improved to a more respectable 84.0. And in the month of November he began putting up numbers you’d expect: his rating hit 100.9 and he threw 9 touchdowns and 1 interception in four games.

Obviously the Colts have weaknesses. The running game is laughable, averaging less than 80 yards per game and ranking 32nd in the NFL, whilst the defense continues to struggle stopping the run. Of course, it’s worth pointing out that Indianapolis has allowed only two opposing backs to break 100 yards since its week four bye and only one in the last five weeks. Again, this is a team that has dealt with injuries at key positions this season (Manning in preseason, Joseph Addai and Bob Sanders during the season, to point out the most notable) and still has a pulse. I still believe that Tony Dungy is in the same company as Bill Belichick when it comes to dealing with injuries; both coaches have an uncanny ability to accept what they can’t control, get the team to accept it, and push forward without losing too much footing.

Eight weeks into the season, I wouldn’t have faulted someone for writing off the Colts. Now, just four short weeks later, I can hardly blame that person if he or she is ready to jump back on the bandwagon. Note to the rest of the NFL: heads up; the Indianapolis Colts are not going to walk quietly into the night.

It was only a matter of time.

Peyton Manning missed all of preseason before returning to start week one against the Bears to look very un-Manning-like. He continued to look the same, week after week, posting mediocre numbers as the Colts struggled to keep their necks above .500.

But then it happened; week four’s bye gave the Colts some much-needed rest and reflection and upon the team’s return, Manning led the way. After a tough first half against the Houston Texans, Manning took the Colts down the field in the fourth quarter and scored a touchdown to put his team ahead, 31-27 with less than two minutes on the clock.

A week later against the Ravens and Manning came out the gate even stronger and more confident. The Ravens had allowed three touchdowns in their previous four games; this was, by far and away, the NFL’s best defense.

And Manning tore it apart.

The Colts offense scored four touchdowns and trounced the Ravens, 31-3. Manning threw three touchdowns and no interceptions, passing for 271 yards and, for the second consecutive week, posting  passer rating above 100, this time 134.7. He averaged 9.7 yards per pass attempt, his best mark of the season and the first time it has exceeded 7.4 in a single game.

Manning’s numbers are beginning to look a bit more Manning-like: 1,302 passing yards, 8 touchdowns, five interception, and a passer rating of 87.8. But don’t think he’s peaked yet this season. Manning is in mid-season form now and should finish with at least 26 touchdown passes and 4,000 yards; he’s back and looking 100 percent. And Manning at 100 percent is a scary thing for opposing defenses.

It was only a matter of time.

Key Points

• Manning has thrown a touchdown every week of the season
• Week six was the second game this season Manning didn’t throw an interception\
• Manning’s passer rating before the Colts week four bye: 73.1
• Manning’s passer rating after the Colts week four bye: 116.2

In the NFL for the past half decade, fewer things have been more certain than the Colts winning the AFC South. But this season things have changed. The level of competitive advantage is swinging in favor of the Tennessee Titans, while the Jaguars cling to second place. Can the Colts affect a change here? Take a look at ten things you ought to know about Peyton Manning and Co.

1. For the first time in a long time the Colts aren’t undefeated at this point in the season. In the previous three seasons, Indianapolis opened the season with a minimum of seven consecutive victories, but this year it took them just one week to get that first loss. At 1-2, the Colts might find it an uphill battle to win 12 or more games, something the team has done every year since 2003.

2. It’s also the first time the team has fielded a poor offense. The Colts are averaging 17.3 points per game (27th in NFL), which is a big drop from last season’s average of 28.1 per game. In fact, the Colts scored 20 points or fewer just twice last season.

3. Everyone is arguing that the Colts have a bad offense so far and to some degree that’s true. But have you looked at this schedule? Chicago, Minnesota, and Jacksonville are three tough, physical defenses to play against. Perhaps the Colts are struggling as much as they are because they’re facing some pretty tough defenses.

4. Peyton Manning is averaging 40 passing attempts per game, which is second in the NFL. But with his sub-60 completion percentage, he’s ranked just 21st in the league in average yards per attempt (6.5). His 73.1 passer rating is also very mediocre and very un-Peyton-like.

5. The reason Manning is struggling? He missed preseason, which is one reason the offense’s timing is thrown off. He’s doing a lot of things right, but it’s going to take him time to work his way back into the offense and get things going. This is a team that will be hot by midseason, and their week four bye came at just the right time.

6. It also doesn’t help that Joseph Addai is struggling. He has 43 carries this season, but he’s rushed for only 142 yards with a 3.3 yard per carry average. He has, however, carried for three touchdowns on the ground. Still, because he’s the focal point of the running game (no one else has more than six carries), and his struggles affect the entire offense.

7. How ’bout those wide receivers? Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez are the two key receivers, but Marvin Harrison is looking pretty good, too. Wayne and Gonzalez are pretty neck-and-neck at this point, discounting touchdowns. Dallas Clark, unfortunately, hasn’t been getting it done for fantasy owners. He has 5 catches for 55 yards but no scores.

8. The defense is doing its job, to some extent. They’re keeping opponents off the board and are allowing just 22.3 points per game (8th), which in any other season would be enough for this offense to win games. Unfortunately, the Colts are still getting outscored by about five per matchup.

9. Here’s the big problem with the defense: they can’t stop the run. At all. This especially hurts because opponents are able to keep the clock ticking, wearing down Indy’s speedy defense. The absence of Bob Sanders is the biggest problem. His return in a few weeks will be huge for this defense’s rebound.

10. This is a team that will turn around. They aren’t kicking off the season with the same intensity as they often do, but they’ll be rolling soon enough. The question is, when? The Titans are 4-0 right now and building a solid lead on the division. But this is a division that could still be won by a number of teams. Check back at midseason: we’ll probably have a much different snapshot of the division.

Not everyone has the same opinion as I do, that Peyton Manning should come off the fantasy draft board before Tom Brady. In fact, most disagree. You see, Tom Brady had a pretty good season last year. Some would argue that it was the best season any quarterback has ever put together and, statistially, maybe it was.

But I draft for the upcoming season, based on my own thoughts and insights. That invariably leads to me disagreeing with what the experts are saying in some instances. This is one of those instances.

Now, I’ll be blunt: I’m not always right. But I never disagree unless I absolutely believe what I’m saying. And here’s what I’m saying:

1. Peyton Manning essentially operates the Colts offense. In recent years he’s been handing his running backs the ball more frequently and that in turn has led to the Colts having a more balanced offense. It’s also made him a more effective quarterback. In 2005, for example, when he threw just 453 pass attempts (the fewest in any season of his career), he still managed to throw 28 touchdown passes and, thanks to better-than-most 8.3 yards per attempt average, he also threw for nearly 3,800 yards. Oh, and his quarterback rating was 104.1. Not bad. Not bad at all.

2. He’s consistent. In fact, he’s the most consistent quarterback in the NFL. His completion percentage hasn’t been below 65.0 since 2001; he’s thrown for at least 4,000 yards in all but two seasons of his career (his rookie season and 2005, when he threw just 453 passes); in 10 seasons he has not thrown fewer than 26 touchdown passes; he’s thrown more than 30 in three of the past four seasons; he set the passing touchdown record just four years ago; he’s thrown 10 or fewer interceptions in four of the past five seasons; he’s been a Pro Bowl quarterback in eight of the past nine seasons; the Colts haven’t finished with fewer than 12 wins since 2002. Should I keep going?

3. He has one heckuvan offensive line. The Colts field one of the league’s most underrated and underappreciated offensive lines, but just me note one thing about Indy’s line: it’s allowed an average of 16.6 sacks per season dating back to 2003. No other offensive line comes close to that.

4. Marvin Harrison is healthy. Harrison might not be the Colts number one receiver on the depth chart anymore, but I think most will agree that he’s still one of Manning’s favorite targets. He was only able to participate in five games last season, and I’ld like to point out that in the three games in which he was most healthy (weeks 1-3), he took 16 receptions for 223 yards and a touchdown. Stretch that over 16 games and it looks like this: 85 receptions, 1189 yards, and 5 touchdowns. I’d consider that a meaningful contribution to the offense.

5. Joseph Addai is entering his third season. He proved last year that he has what it takes to be a starting running back and, if he lives up to the potential he showed in hist first seven games last season (four 100-yard games; at least 72 yards in the others; 8 total touchdowns), he’ll be even better this year. He’s also been a nice little addition to the passing game; he had 40 and 41 receptions in 2006 and 2007, respectively, for a total of 689 yards and four touchdowns.

6. Tom Brady might have Randy Moss and Wes Welker, but Peyton Manning has a few targets too. Reggie Wayne is the elite wide receiver, and it can be argued that Dallas Clark is the league’s most versatile tight end. I mentioned in number 4 that Marvin Harrison is healthy again, and Anthony Gonzalez showed a lot of potential last season. Not a bad supporting cast, eh?

7. Prior to last season, Brady wasn’t statistically on the same level as Manning. He hadn’t had a season with a completion percentage of at least 64.0; his yardage eclipsed 4,000 just once; he never threw more than 28 touchdowns in a season (and he averaged just over 25 from 2003-2006); he had never thrown fewer than 12 interceptions in a season; and he never had a quarterback rating of at least 93.0.

8. The Patriots are probably going to run the ball more often this season. Most teams don’t get away with absolutely torching defenses in consecutive seasons. The Patriots are going to see more blitzes and more opponents geared towards stopping the pass, which should, logically, lead to adjusting the run-pass ratio in favor of dives, tosses, and sweeps.

The NFL season is now fast approaching, which means your fantasy football draft is probably right around the corner. To better prepare you for that, I’m releasing my fantasy football pre-draft rankings. Remember, these are to be used as a guide on draft day, so feel free to move players around and stray from the list when draft day actually arrives. (more…)

Is this Tony Dungy’s last season?

Dungy has been asked this question so many times and there has been so much speculation that it’s reminiscent of the Favre-frenzy that captured media attention for so many years before he called it quits this offseason (or did he? as so many Packerland fans would like to know). Here’s my guess: this will be his last season wearing a headset in the NFL. Dungy loves to coach and he’s one of the best in the league, but he’s also the type of person who can just as easily walk away to be with his family. That being said, I hold out hope each offseason that he does return so we get to see him coach one more season.

Is Peyton Manning the best fantasy quarterback?

Manning is, year in and out, a top three fantasy football quarterback. In fact, dating back to 1999, he’s never been finished out of the top six at his position (as a rookie in 1998 he was 9th). That’s incredible consistency and it’s why I have him as my number one fantasy quarterback. I wouldn’t fault you for taking Brady first, but I’d also be ecstatic to see Manning fall to me.

Where does Joseph Addai fit in among running backs?

Addai is a top five fantasy running back for a few reasons. First, he’s an immensely talented back who finds the endzone a lot (he scored 15 times last season). Second, he’s still developing - this will be his third season - and reaching his prime. And third, he’s the featured back in the Colts offense. Thanks to the Colts top-notch passing offense, Manning can open up the running game for Joseph Addai by spreading out defenses. Expect another great season for Addai and project for at least 1,175 rushing yards, 45 receptions, 400 receiving yards, and 15 touchdowns.

Is Reggie Wayne on the same level as T.O. and Randy Moss?

Wayne is definitely a first-tier wide receiver, along with Owens and Moss. What is amazing about Wayne is that his number of receptions has increased steadily since he entered the league in 2001, peaking last season when he hauled in 104 catches as Peyton Manning’s go-to receiver. This season he’ll see more great production. And though he might not break 100 receptions, he should still be the third receiver to come off your draft board. Project for at least 90 receptions, 1,400 yards, and 12 touchdowns.

What should I do about Marvin Harrison?

Harrison’s 2008 projections and health concerns dictate that he should be drafted as a WR3. He’s also dealing with the distraction of his alleged involvement in a shooting at a bar he owns. Project for around 60 receptions, 800 yards, and 5 touchdowns.

Will the Colts win the Super Bowl this season?

Indianapolis is definitely talented enough to win, especially if the team can stay healthy for an entire season. Plus, I think it would be one great sendoff for Tony Dungy if the Colts win a second Super Bowl in three years. My vote is “yes.”

Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots have been cheating since their first Super Bowl win, back in 2000-2001. Spygate. HGH-positive tests. And we’re now dealing with those consequences. A government investigation may be soon underway and Roger Goodell’s place in the NFL’s history will soon be known as the commish who would do anything to preserve the game’s integrity.

But on a much less apocolyptic note, what the heck are we going to do now that the Patriots can’t really be considered the dynasty of the 2000s without an asterisk? I mean, really. No other team has won more than one Super Bowl over the past eight years.

Anyhow, here are the candidates to replace them (basically, a list of teams that have won Super Bowls since the Y2k scare):

St. Louis Rams - Hey, look they won a Super Bowl and lost one — to the Patriots. I wonder if that should count as a half win?

Baltimore Ravens - One win over the New York Giants (also on the list) thanks to one of the best defenses ever to step on the field (and a couple players who got mixed up in the wrong crowds).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Chucky’s Super Bowl winning squad has almost all gone to other teams at this point while the coach is inching closer and closer to the hot seat.

Pittsburgh Steelers - The Bus had one last stop to make - the Super Bowl. He got there, but his teams weren’t great before or since.

Indianapolis Colts - Who knows how many rings Peyton would have if Brady and those darn Patriots hadn’t shafted them in the Conference Championship games?

New York Giants - The one team to actually beat the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl this millenia. That’s gotta be worth something.

Who’s your dynasty of the 2000s? Let it be heard in the comments!

The simple answer is yes. 

Peyton Manning is a perrenial first rounder. That much is certain. There’s no way to avoid seeing him go between picks 6-8 in most drafts where passing touchdowns are awarded 4 points (and higher in leagues where passing touchdowns are 6 points, just as a receiving or rushing score).

That leaves only Brady to be drafted. And all indications point to him being worthy of a first round pick. Whether it’s before or after Manning is likely up to owner preference (you won’t see a diehard Colts fan take Brady first), but he’ll likely go at the same point as Manning.

There is an interesting point that Brady slowed down at the end of his perfect regular season, throwing two or fewer touchdown passes in 4 of the final 6 games (including one game in which he threw no touchdowns). But even those numbers justify him as a first round candidate. Over the final six games of the season, he still averaged 2 touchdown passes (32 total over the course of a 16 game season).

However, if one takes into account the postseason (and eventual Super Bowl), Brady’s numbers do take something of a dive. Those games (especially New York’s amazing upset) will be used as the blueprint for defenses to follow next season. And thanks to free agency, the Patriots will also likely lose a few key players (the most notable being Randy Moss).

But this last point is something of a “worst-case-scenario.” No owner is going to get burned picking Brady in the first round. He’ll still throw at least 25 touchdown passes (if it’s just an average season), and more likely he’ll throw close to 30.

Whatever the case, expect some owner to take Brady early (perhaps too early) in hopes of another historic season.