Every time I watched the Chargers play, it always amazed me how often Philip Rivers hooked up with one of his receivers for a deep pass. Lots of QBs pile up big numbers because their receivers gain YAC but it always seems that with the Chargers, most of their yardage comes from when the ball is in the air (Sproles not withstanding). Thus, I tracked down the stats of all of the playoff QBs’ numbers when they threw a pass 30 or more yards.
It’s important to note that these are not 30+ yard pass plays but rather only plays in which the ball was in the air for 30 or more yards. Here are the yardage results on these plays as well as the number of 30+ yard pass completions for each playoffs QB:

Rivers’ efficiency in throwing the deep ball is unparalleled; in fact, McNabb and Romo were the only QBs who had more 30+ yard completions than Rivers had 40+ yard completions (7). It certainly helps to have a pair of 6′5″ receivers who can go up and pull down the pass but you still have to be accurate enough to put the receiver in such a position. Much was made of Rivers’ funky throwing motion when coming out of NC State, but none of that should matter for any QB as long as he can put the ball where it needs to be.

When you look closer at his stats, you see that Rivers even has the chance to improve upon his average of 8.75 yards per attempt as now he doesn’t have to throw those 6-yard out routes to Chris Chambers just to keep his morale up.  Thru the first half of the season (with Chambers), Rivers averaged 8.19 yards YPA but during the last half of the season (without Chambers), Rivers averaged 9.48 YPA.  If he can maintain that 9.48 average over an entire season, then Rivers will have the third highest YPA in a single season since 1954.  Chambers’ mere presence in the lineup seemed to negatively affect Rivers; here’s how Rivers’ stats improved once Chambers was released:

Looking ahead to 2010, Philip Rivers will make for a great draft pick for those that play in leagues that award bonus points to big plays.  It wasn’t like this was a one-year phenomenon as in 2008 Rivers had 10 pass completions of at least 30 yards and led the NFL in yards per pass attempt.  It is clear that the Chargers are a pass-first team now and LT, Sproles, or whomever they draft will take a backseat to the passing offense for the foreseeable future.

Another season of fantasy football is wrapped up, leaving some champions and others wondering where they went wrong. Before the postseason kicks off there are dozens of nuggets we learned — or, in some cases, relearned — which may be useful in 2010. Hey, it’s never too early to start thinking about next season, is it?

1. Aaron Rodgers is an elite fantasy football quarterback with one of the best receiving corps in football. Donald Drivers had a terrific season at age 34 and Greg Jennings remains a game-changer. But one of the key notes concerning Rodgers is his ability to spread the ball around. Five players had more than 30 receptions, and five had at least four touchdown receptions. Rodgers himself finished with 4,434 yards, 30 touchdown passes, and just seven interceptions, not to mention he led all quarterbacks in rushing with 316 yards and five additional scores. The Packers offense will continue to roll as long as he’s around, especially with up-and-coming receivers like James Jones and the ultra-talented tight end Jermichael Finley.

2. The Colts know how to draft receivers who fit their offense. Peyton Manning had two receivers with 100 receptions — Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark — but the biggest surprises were Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. Those two combined for 107 receptions, 1,441 yards, and 11 touchdowns, despite missing some games. It reinforced Manning’s status as the premier fantasy quarterback — he passed for 4,500 yards and 33 touchdowns — and reminded fans that Manning doesn’t need Marvin Harrison or Brandon Stokley to be successful: he makes his weapons dangerous.

3. Tony Romo is really good — even in December. Romo finished with 4,483 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions and turned Miles Austin into a fantasy juggernaut. Just as important, Romo caught fire when the temperature dipped: from December to January he averaged 310 passing yards per week and threw nine touchdowns and just two interceptions in five games. And end-of-season collapse be damned: the ‘Boys finished 5-2 in the final seven weeks, sweeping their final three games at New Orleans, at Washington, and as hosts to the Eagles to win the division.

4. Chris Johnson is flat out unstopable. He broke 2,000 yards rushing on 358 carries, adding an addition 50 receptions for 503 yards. He scored 16 times and carried the Titans offense on his shoulders as far as he could, despite defenses knowing he was Tennessee’s only real weapon. Unfortunately, that didn’t mean a playoff berth. However, if you had him on your fantasy roster, he probably got you more than a few wins: he broke 150 yards from scrimmage an incredible 10 times and rushed for 100+ yards 11 consecutive weeks to close the season. Something tells me he’ll be the first player off draft boards next season.

5. These New (York) Jets are bringing pride to the fans. Rex Ryan has coached his Jets to a playoff berth with only the fundamentals in mind: run the ball really well and shut down opposing offenses. It actually seems like this team is winning in spite of rookie Mark Sanchez, who tossed 20 interceptions and just 12 touchdowns. But Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene 1-2 kidney-punched defenses this season 439 times for 1,902 yards and 16 touchdowns. The rest of the offense rushed for an additional 854 yards and chipped in five more touchdowns. And the blitz-happy defense? It ranked first in points, yards, and passing yards.

6. Matt Schaub can sure throw a football when he’s healthy. Everyone knew he had potential, especially with Andre Johnson, arguably the league’s best wide receiver, at his disposal. But did anyone think he’d pass for more yards than Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady? Schaub nailed his targets for 4,770 yards to lead the league and tacked on 29 touchdown passes. Incidentally, he also led the league in passing attempts (583) and completions (396).

7. Philip Rivers’ 2008 season was no fluke. Rivers matched or bettered his numbers in nearly every major passing category, save touchdowns. He completed roughly the same percentage of his passes for more yards (4,254) and fewer interceptions (9). He even ran for a touchdown this season, the second of his career. As for those touchdowns, he might not have hit 34 again, but he did pass for a very respectable 28 and proved to fans and critics that he’s as good as anyone else in the league.

8. The Denver Broncos need a new face at quarterback, someone more like — dare I say? — Jay Cutler. Cutler has his flaws (he showed them this season when he threw 26 interceptions), but Denver needs a quarterback who can take chances and win games, not a game-manager. Kyle Orton played well enough when the defense was shut-down, but he couldn’t be counted on to lead the offense from behind. His failures were one of the critical reasons Denver dropped 8 of its final 10 to miss the postseason.

9. Vincent Jackson is quietly stellar. He has one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL tossing him the football (Philip Rivers), and he’s improved his numbers every season he’s been in the league. This season he caught 68 passes for 1,167 yards (that’s 17.2 yards per catch) and nine touchdowns. Imagine if he improves again next season — be sure you don’t pass on him in your draft.

10. Brandon Marshall is going to make some quarterback very happy next season. Because his contract expires and his demand will be through the roof, Denver might not be able to retain him. And after head coach Josh McDaniels benched him week 17, one wonders whether the franchise wants to retain him. Character issues aside, Marshall is a brilliant receiver and a game-changer. He caught 100 passes for the third consecutive season and had his first double-digit touchdown year to boot. Expect more great things wherever he suits up next season, maybe even in Chicago, to reunite with Jay Cutler and bolster an otherwise below-average corps of receivers.

Here’s a few thoughts on a few more teams from the Saturday games.

ATLANTA FALCONS
The Falcons offense looked very good with a nice balance of rush and pass. The Chargers we’re not able to stop them driving down the field.  Matt Ryan looked good, ready for the season already. Calm, cool, and collected.  Michael Turner looked very good, with good holes to run through. Norwood got creamed while making a catch. Tony Gonzalez looked good and had a few receptions. Roddy White looked good with a couple long receptions. Michael Jenkins looked ok, not a lot of touches.  Atlanta defense looked good, but not great against the Chargers. Atlanta is effective on all out blitzes, sacking Rivers several times.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
The Chargers offense was not fully complete, with many of the starters sitting this game out. LT did not play. Antonio Gates did not play.  Philip Rivers looked good with accurate throws and some long bombs. O-line is giving him good time to throw.  Darren Sproles looked great as usual…running with speed and power. He found plenty of running room and holes to run through. It’s amazing how he makes yards after catch/contact.  Chargers screen passes are deadly. Vincent Jackson looked good with several long catches and a spectacular one handed catch.  Malcolm Floyd had a nice long catch, but aggravated his sore ribs.  Chargers defense looked good, but not great. Could not consistently stop the Falcons running game.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Chiefs got off to a rough start. The o-line is not doing a good job of pass protection. They are still shuffling o-linemen. The lack of time in passing situations resulted in a sack of Matt Cassel where he got his left knee twisted and he hobbled off the field and did not return. Tyler Thigpen stepped in to replace Cassel.  Tyler Thigpen is just not very good.  Larry Johnson is looking good, but not sure the o-line is going to give him enough running room to do well inside. He had to bounce outside (not his strength) to find any room to run.  Jamaal Charles is very quick and looks good as a change of pace back to compliment LJ. He’s dangerous in draw plays and screens. Dwayne Bowe didn’t get a lot of touches early, but gained more as the game went on.  Chiefs defense looks decent, but not great.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The Seahawks don’t look like they are in sync yet. Drives are somewhat awkward and not sustained. Matt Hasselbeck looks ok.  Julius Jones is having trouble finding running room inside… o-line is not busting big running lanes for him.  TJ Houshmanzadeh looks good, but didn’t get a lot of touches.  Nate Burleson looks healthy, made a couple good catches. Overall a pretty blah performance.  Seahawks defense is decent, good enough to give Tyler Thigpen problems, which isn’t saying much.

After Philip Rivers’ breakthrough 2008 season a lot of fans are ready to crown him as a top five fantasy quarterback. Before you pole vault onto that bandwagon, keep the following ten facts in mind — then make your decision.

(1) Rivers’ touchdown percentage last season, 7.1, was spectacular. He led all quarterbacks with at least 125 passing attempts and posted a rate only a handful of quarterbacks ever achieve in multiple seasons. In fact, Peyton Manning has posted a rate above 6.2 only once – in 2004, when he threw 49 touchdowns. The point: don’t expect Rivers to replicate that number anytime soon.

(2) The San Diego gunslinger posted touchdown percentages of 4.8 and 4.6 in 2006 and 2007, respectively. Not surprisingly, last season was the first in his career in which he threw more than 22 touchdown passes. He threw 34.

(3) Rivers also posted an impressive average yards per attempt: 8.4. Only Drew Brees and Matt Schaub, both of whom posted an even 8.0, broke the “eight” barrier last season. Similarly, in 2007 only Tom Brady broke the mark, his being slightly lower than Rivers. Again: 8.4 is a number unlikely to be duplicated.

(4) Rivers has remained relatively consistent in one respect the past three seasons: passing attempts. He attempted 460, 460, and 478 passes since 2006. It is unlikely he will attempt significantly more this season, either, especially if LaDainian Tomlinson remains healthy throughout the year.

(5) 2008 was the first season in Rivers’ career in which he broke 4,000 passing yards (he finished with 4,009). As can be guessed, it’s relatively rare for a quarterback to break 4,000 yards with fewer than 500 passing attempts, as he must average at least 8.0 yards per attempt.

(6) To further put 8.0 yards per attempt in perspective, it’s worth pointing out Peyton Manning has averaged at least 8.0 yards per attempt twice in his career; Tom Brady has done it once; and the great Dan Marino did it just twice in 17 seasons.

(7) 2008 was also the first season in which Philip Rivers passed for at least 30 touchdowns — as was pointed out before he had never thrown more than 22 in a single season. To put that number in perspective it’s worth noting that Dan Marino and Peyton Manning threw or have thrown at least 30 a combined eight times in 28 seasons.

(8) In only one of those 28 seasons did either Marino or Manning attempt fewer than 500 passes: in 2004, when Manning set the league on fire with 49 touchdowns in 497 attempts, effectively setting the touchdown percentage record at an unreachable height: 9.9 percent.

(9) Incidentally, last season was also a personal record for Rivers in one other respect: his completion percentage was at an all-time high, 65.3 percent. It’s quite difficult to reach a rate of 65 percent, evidenced by the master of the west coast offense, Joe Montana, having done so just three times in his 13-year career.

(10) If Philip Rivers posts a touchdown percentage rate of 5.5 and a yards per attempt rate of 7.5 this season — both being very generous projections – these are his most likely numbers: 3,563 yards and 26 touchdowns. A more conservative guesstimate — touchdown percentage: 4.8; yards per attempt rate: 7.0 — would place him closer to 3,325 yards and 23 touchdowns. In the end, he’ll likely finish somewhere in the middle and my projections might look like 3,450 passing yards and 25 touchdowns.

The idea of this post wasn’t to rag on Philip Rivers or belittle his accomplishments in any way. As most of the facts pointed out, the numbers he posted last season were quite literally historic. Only the best quarterbacks in the history of professional football reached the heights he did last season.

However, if you’ve taken away one other thing from the post it’s this: 2008 was likely something of an anomaly. It would be incredible if Rivers passes for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns again this season. Don’t bank on it.

This is a continuation of a previous post and is the second part of a series of four posts dedicated to quarterbacks. Click to read part one, part three, and part four.

7. Philip Rivers - Philip Rivers was outstanding last season, so it might surprise some to see him this low. After all, he did lead the NFL in passing touchdowns while throwing for 4,000 yards. But think about it: he only threw 478 passes. The numbers he posted were outstanding, to say the least, and they were also once-or-twice-in-a-career type numbers. Expecting him to hit 4,000 yards or 30 touchdowns again would be somewhat ludicrous. Instead, expect numbers closer to this: 3,750 passing yards and 25 touchdowns.

8. Donovan McNabb - I’m a little uncomfortable ranking McNabb this high because last season was the first since 2004 in which he threw at least 20 touchdown passes and the first since 2003 in which he played 16 games. That said, he looked fantastic last season and if he can stay healthy I think he’s capable of 3,600 yards and 22-23 touchdowns.

9. Carson Palmer - Though the Bengals did lose wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, the team did replace him with another great receiver with an equally difficult-to-spell name: Laveranues Coles. Meanwhile, Chad Johnson has been working to repair his relationship with quarterback Palmer, and fans in Cincinnati are crossing their fingers in hopes he’ll be able to do so. Long story short, Palmer has plenty of talent around him, so if he gets the protection he needs this offense could blow up.

10. Jay Cutler - He may not be in Denver anymore, but I firmly believe he was the player responsible for making the team’s receivers appear better than they are with a lesser quarterback. If the Bears can pass the ball a bit more than they did last season and Chicago’s lackluster corps of receivers can step up their game, Cutler can finish with respectable numbers. His numbers might not echo those he reached in Denver, but 3,400 passing yards and 23 touchdowns isn’t unreasonable.

11. Eli Manning - Call me crazy for ranking the younger Manning brother this high, but before you do consider this: he was well on his way to an incredible season last year before the Plaxico Burress debacle. The Giants will be clear of that distraction this year, and Manning will be able to roll to a career season. Don’t be surprised to see him finish with 3,400 passing yards and 24 touchdowns, especially if the Giants throw the ball more than they did last year.

12. Ben Roethlisberger - “Big” Ben might not be in a pass-happy offense, but he proved in the Super Bowl that he’s capable of making plays with his arm. With a physicality reminiscent of another great Steelers quarterback, Terry Bradshaw, Roethlisberger has the potential to post solid numbers if given the opportunity. Expect at least 3,400 passing yards and 21-22 passing touchdowns this year, in addition to the 2 rushing touchdowns he’s earned each of the past four seasons.

The NFL is back. This weekend, training camp got underway for the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles, and during the upcoming week, the remaining 30 teams will begin their preparation for the season. As such, fantasy football drafts will take place en masse over the next month or so. Let’s take a look at the top-30 gunslingers for the upcoming season. For a reference point, the graph below shows the top-15 quarterbacks from last season in terms of fantasy points.

1. Drew Brees: A no-brainer. Brees was the only QB with over 5,000 passing yards last season, and he tied Philip Rivers for the lead in TD passes with 34.

2. Peyton Manning: The epitome of consistency, which is gold in fantasy football. Manning has thrown for fewer than 4,000 yards just one time since his second year in the league, and has never tossed fewer than 26 touchdowns.

3. Tom Brady: A legitimate argument can be made to place him higher, but that 50-touchdown season won’t be repeated, and you have to be at least slightly concerned about anyone coming back from a knee injury like the one he did. Then again, he did have time to recover with a Victoria’s Secret model caring for him, which probably expedited the healing process.

4. Aaron Rodgers: It was easy to overlook Rodgers last season because the Packers were not contenders, but he was fourth in the league with 28 touchdown passes, has a plethora of talented wideouts, and oh yeah, ran for 200 yards, and made four trips to the end zone on foot.

5. Tony Romo: Missing three games hurt his yard total, which is why he was only in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy scoring in 2008, but he was still fifth in the league with 27 scoring throws.

6. Philip Rivers: Rivers likely won’t repeat the career year he had last season, when he found the end zone 34 times, but at least 25 is more than reasonable to expect in 2009.

7. Kurt Warner: Injuries are the biggest concern, or he’d be higher on the list. The 38-year-old played in 16 games last season for the first time since 2001, and just the third time in his entire career.

8. Donovan McNabb: Threw more than 20 touchdowns last season for the first time since 2004, and just the fourth time in his 10-year career. He also had the fewest rushing yards of any season that he’s played in at least 10 games.

9. Jay Cutler: He comes to a new offense, and one that does not have nearly the weapons he had in Denver. That, along with a better defense that will not force him to throw so often, will cut into his numbers.

10. Carson Palmer: A potential under-the-radar pick, Palmer is without T.J. Houshmandzadeh for the first time in his career. Yet he still has some solid weapons, and before getting hurt last season, was coming off three straight campaigns of at least 26 touchdown throws.

11. Matt Cassel: Can Cassel accomplish the same things in K.C. that he did in New England without Randy Moss?

12. Matt Schaub: Fantasy owners are just waiting for him to blow up, as dynamic playmakers surround the former Virginia star. Now, if he can only stay healthy.

13. Ben Roethlisberger: The civil suit for sexual assault is troublesome beyond the scope of fantasy football, but he’s been overrated in that sense anyway due to one big season.

14. Matt Ryan: Ryan should follow his solid rookie campaign with another step forward. Whether it’s a baby step or a leap will help determine how he’s viewed in the future.

15. Matt Hasselbeck: Plagued by a back injury last season, Hasselbeck is one year removed from the best season of his career.

Best of the Rest

16. David Garrard
17. Kyle Orton
18. Chad Pennington
19. Eli Manning
20. Brett Favre
21. Jake Delhomme
22. Joe Flacco
23. Jason Campbell
24. Trent Edwards
25. Marc Bulger
26. JaMarcus Russell
27. Shaun Hill
28. Kerry Collins
29. Brady Quinn
30. Daunte Culpepper

Every year certain players are underrated and overrated, or at least seem to be, and it shows up in how highly they’re drafted. The best place to check up on which players aren’t getting their dues (or are getting a little too much credit) is by leafing (or I suppose “scrolling”) through Fantasy Football Calculator’s Average Draft Position (ADP) list.

I found a lot of players being drafted too high and took it upon myself to list the most glaring examples in this post. Keep in mind that it is time sensitive because a lot of things will change between now and August or September when most “real” drafts take place. This list will be updated with future posts between now and then, so check back or follow our RSS feed and twitter feed to get the latest.

With that disclaimer in mind, here are the top five most overrated fantasy quarterbacks. (Quick tip: beware of quarterbacks named “Matt” - you’ll see why.)

The number in parentheses is the player’s ADP. The number is read as “round.pick.” For example, 3.05 would be the fifth pick of the third round. Got it? Awesomeness - now keep reading.

5. Matt Schaub (7.03) - Schaub hasn’t shown he can play a complete season in his brief career, nor has he really shown enough promise to be labeled as a top ten fantasy quarterback. He threw 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 11 games last year; that’s about 22 and 15 over a 16-game period. I think he has a great target in Andre Johnson, but I’m not so sure he’s worth drafting ahead of players like Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, or Kyle Orton.

4. Matt Ryan (6.10) - Matt Ryan had a breakout rookie season, but I’m not buying his being drafted five rounds before Eli Manning and a full round before Jay Cutler. Ryan still plays for the Atlanta Falcons, and though he has Tony Gonzalez this season I don’t buy the Falcons throwing much more than in the 2008. Bottom line: I don’t buy him as the 9th best fantasy quarterback of ‘09.

3. Aaron Rodgers (4.08) - I love Aaron Rodgers and think he has some of the most underrated wide receivers in the NFL at his disposal in Donald Driver and Greg Jennings. But Green Bay doesn’t have much of a running game and the offensive line is questionable, especially with the numerous issues surrounding Mark Tauscher. Drafting him as a top five fantasy quarterback and ahead of both Kurt Warner and Tony Romo doesn’t seem quite right.

2. Matt Cassel (9.07) - Cassel’s being drafted nearly two full rounds before Eli Manning, and he’s playing in a below-average offense. He played pretty well last year, but couldn’t just about any quarterback in New England’s firepower offense? Heck, Tom Brady threw 50 touchdowns just the year before. Cassel is in Kansas City now, playing for a team in the midst of rebuilding. He doesn’t have weapons like Manning, Kyle Orton, or Trent Edwards - I don’t advise drafting him ahead of those guys either.
1. Philip Rivers (4.08) - I feel a little bad because it’s like I’m just piling it on Rivers; first he gets snubbed from the Pro Bowl last season, and now I’m claiming he’s overrated. But think about it: he had a fantastic season in 2008, the kind of year even the best quarterbacks experience just a few times over the course of a career. To suggest he’s capable of throwing another 30 touchdowns while averaging 8.4 yards per attempt is a tad asinine - top five quarterbacks rarely throw 475 attempts in a season.

Talk about taking a big step forward in a career.

In 2009, Philip Rivers went from “meh, he’s still a young quarterback with a lot to learn” to “oh, Jesus, thank you for making him available on my draft board for me!”

Allow me expand on those sentiments above: in 2007 Rivers took a step back and played with a lot of inconsistency. He passed for fewer yards and touchdowns and more interceptions than he had in 2006. There were games he looked like a rookie and others where his full potential shined through. Put it together and he was a tough player to peg for 2008, with most owners drafting him as a mid-lower QB1.

Long story short, he proved to be the best fantasy value ever.

Okay, that’s an exaggeration, but darn if he wasn’t right up there. Rivers led the Chargers to a division win (coming from behind and beating the Broncos in week 17 to do it, no less!) and to the divisional round of the playoffs where San Diego lost to the eventual Super Bowl champions. To sweeten the deal - and this is the part you actually care about, unless you bleed bolts of lightning - Rivers was unstoppable during the regular season. He passed for 4,009 yards, 34 touchdowns, and just 11 touchdowns. All while throwing just 478 pass attempts.

Wow.

Look at it this way: if he had thrown as many passes as Tom Brady did in 2007 he would have passed for more yards than the golden boy and, though obviously not as many as the Patriots quarterback, 41 touchdowns.

Now say it with me: Wow.

Alright, that takes care of my admiration for Rivers 2008 season. Good to get that off my chest. Now comes the part that some might criticize, so bear with me: Rivers is about to take a fairly significant step back in 2009.

Calm down, calm down. Let me explain: I don’t think Rivers is going to have a bad season by any measure, but does anyone really expect him to repeat what he did last year? He had a 7.1% touchdown percentage. In case you’re wondering, yeah, that’s pretty freakin’ good. To put it in perspective, Peyton Manning had a 4.9 last season and Donovan McNabb had a 4.0.

In order for Rivers to repeat last season’s numbers, two things have to happen: one, he can again stun the fantasy world with a 7.1 percent. Odds of it happening: slim. Like, Adrian Brody in The Pianist thin. Peyton Manning himself has had a percentage above 6.2 just once, and he’s never had at least 6.0 in consecutive seasons.

The other possibility is Rivers throwing significantly more passes. Odds of it happening: pretty unlikely. Think, I dunno, another Bush winding up in the White House unlikely. Rivers has played three consecutive full seasons, and he’s been rather consistent in one area: pass attempts. In 2006 and 2007 he tossed 460 passes, and in 2007 he threw 478. Don’t expect the number to rise much, if at all, in 2009; this is still a team with LaDainian Tomlinson who, wait a minute, was actually pretty good last season. This is still going to be a very balanced offense, and that means keeping Rivers pass attempts below 500.

Consider this: let’s say Rivers throws even 500 passes next season. If he has a very good, though not spectacular, touchdown percentage of 5.0, he’ll throw 25 touchdowns. That’s still pretty good. And if he can average about 7.4 yards per attempt, which is, again, a very good number, he’ll pass for 3,700 yards Throw in 12 interceptions to match last season’s excellent mark of around 2.3 percent, and you get a pretty good season.

But it’s not best in the NFL good; it’s not even top three good. To me, Rivers is probably a higher mid-range QB1 (5th-7th among his peers), and he shouldn’t be drafted higher. In order to justify it you must project either the offense to shift gears and start throwing the ball quite a bit more or set the bar very high for him.

Call me conservative, but I don’t buy it.

Our series on the fantasy value of quarterbacks in each division in the NFL continues with the AFC West. Like its counterpart in the NFC, the western division in the AFC has recently been one where success has been more elusive than the Holy Grail. Still, a new year brings new hope, not only for the teams in the division, but for those fantasy owners who may wind up with one of the division’s quarterbacks on their roster. Let’s take a look.

Denver Broncos:  New Denver head coach Josh McDaniels had an offseason that started off rockier than Colorado’s mountains when quarterback Jay Cutler got upset that McDaniels was reportedly interested in bringing Matt Cassel in as the team’s signal caller. The two never got on the same page, and the situation between the pair quickly decomposed, leading to Cutler getting traded to the Bears for draft picks and Kyle Orton. Despite the presence of Chris Simms and rookie Tom Brandstater, Orton likely enters camp as the team’s No. 1 quarterback. He makes for one of the more intriguing fantasy options in the league due to his promising play before getting hurt last season, and the fact that McDaniels helped Cassel go from irrelevant backup to someone who finished in the top-10 in passing yards, touchdown passes, and quarterback rating. Can the same be done with Orton? It’s possible, especially with the weapons Denver possesses on offense. Still, it’s hard to figure Orton as a guy fantasy owners should depend on as their QB1 heading into the season considering his lack of past success. But you should feel more than comfortable with him as a backup.

Kansas City Chiefs: Despite the solid play of Tyler Thigpen last season for the Chiefs, the team, behind new GM Scott Pioli, decided to make a trade for Matt Cassel to be their quarterback, and signed him to a long-term deal. Thigpen only completed 54.8 percent of his throws last year, but he did toss 18 touchdowns, and ran for three more, making him a fairly decent option for fantasy owners off the waiver wire. Alas, he’ll be relegated to backup status in 2009, as Cassel takes over the reins. Cassel came out of nowhere last season to play well, but he was a bit iffy as a fantasy option due to his relative inconsistency. He was a boom-or-bust type, as he had five games with at least three touchdown passes, but five games with no touchdown throws. With Tony Gonzalez traded to Atlanta, the Chiefs are essentially looking at Dwayne Bowe and veteran Bobby Engram as their only receiving threats. That’s a far cry from having Randy Moss and Wes Welker running routes. But Cassel does offer great upside, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him put together a season similar to last year, but hopefully one with more consistency. Call him a low-end QB1.

Oakland Raiders: Oakland does things one way, and only one way - the Al Davis way. That doesn’t figure to change until the Crypt Keeper is finally entombed, and means former No. 1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell will again be trying to throw to receivers whose main asset is speed; route-running and hands be damned. Russell hasn’t come close to living up to his draft status, but he did show a bit of improvement towards the end of the year, as he posted his only two games of throwing for at least 230 yards and two scores in the season’s final three weeks. Nonetheless, Oakland possesses a shaky offensive line and solid stable of running backs, so fantasy owners should look elsewhere for their quarterback on draft day.

San Diego Chargers: Somewhat quietly, Philip Rivers had one of the best seasons in the league for a quarterback in 2008. While most fantasy owners cursed the slowdown of running back LaDainian Tomlinson, they may have been overlooking the ascension of Rivers to elite status. He led the NFL with a quarterback rating of 105.5, tied Drew Brees for the league lead with 34 touchdown passes, was fifth with 4,009 passing yards, and seventh with a 65.3 completion percentage. As Tomlinson hits age 30 before the season, look for the team to depend even more on Rivers. He still has a deluge of talented receivers at his disposal, not to mention one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the game in Antonio Gates. Rivers should be targeted as one of the upper-echelon fantasy quarterbacks in the league, arguably behind only the aforementioned Brees and Indianapolis’ Peyton Manning.

When a quarterback lights up scoreboards and sets career highs, you can bet fantasy football players will take notice. If it’s likely for that player to repeat his numbers the following season, most will immediately bump him near the top of their draft boards, select him high, and kick back with confidence.

Unfortunately, players don’t invariably follow a great season with another equally spectacular year.

Philip Rivers quieted many of his detractors last season by piecing together a career year and leading the NFL in passer rating and touchdown passes. Last season was so extraordinary - one might even describe it as “anomalous” - it will be darn near impossible for him to repeat anything similar to it, unless the Chargers attempt more passes.

The question at this point is can we expect similar numbers in 2009? Not in this writer’s mind. Nothing is impossible of course, especially considering Rivers is a top-notch quarterback, but how can we expect him to average 8.4 yards per attempt or put up another stunning 7.1% touchdown percentage? To be frank, we can’t. Those numbers are exceptionally high. Consider: had he thrown 578 pass attempts in 2008, as Tom Brady did the season before when breaking the NFL record, Rivers would have passed for 41 touchdowns and 4,855 yards. Those are incredible averages, quite difficult for him to duplicate, and unreasonable for us to project.

Let’s quickly investigate just one of the numbers: 7.1%. Consider how it stacks up to the top five quarterbacks (in passing touchdowns) after Rivers:

Look at how much higher Rivers’ average is than the others on the list. 7.1% is remarkable, occurring only a few times during even the most exceptional quarterback’s career. Next season Rivers will no doubt return to earth with a percentage between 5.0-5.5.

Therein lies the problem: unless the Chargers begin passing the ball much more than they have the past several seasons - unlikely since the team re-signed LaDainian Tomlinson - Rivers probably won’t replicate last season’s numbers and fantasy players should adjust projections accordingly.

Reasonably speaking, estimate Rivers to attempt 475 passes and throw for 3,500 passing yards and 24 touchdown passes - good numbers, to be sure, but they don’t qualify him as the top-tier passer he was this season.