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Posts Tagged ‘Quarterbacks’

Three Eagles, Limitless Scenarios

Thursday, January 28th, 2010

It seems that every year around this time we consider the futures of two NFL quarterbacks: Brett Favre, who tends to waffle on retirement until at least April or, last year, July; and Donovan McNabb, who is rumored to be traded constantly.

This year the latter rumor is very interesting to consider, partly because McNabb might be destined to replace Favre in Minnesota, or Warner in Arizona.

In Philadelphia, three household names might be elsewhere next season. McNabb tops the list, but he’s followed closely by long-time and oft-injured teammate Brian Westbrook and unorthodox quarterback Michael Vick.

Donovan McNabb has been pressed constantly to give us an update on what he expects to happen. His replies have thus far been vanilla.

Will you be in Philadelphia next season? “Why wouldn’t I be? I mean we’ve been going through this the last two, three years. I don’t want to be anywhere else but Philly. I don’t believe in starting somewhere and going somewhere else to finish your career. I believe in starting somewhere and finishing what you’ve started.”

What do you know about Brian Westbrook’s future?
“He looks forward to getting back. All the talk people are saying retirement or whatever it may be, it’s all false.”

Will Vick be back for a second season? “Yes.”

In other words, if you talk to Donovan McNabb, all three players are going to be back and as good as ever.

Talk to a journalist, on the other hand, and you might get a different story. Chris Mortensen asked McNabb point blank whether he actually believed he was going to be back. McNabb didn’t miss a beat and asked Mort why he shouldn’t expect to be back.

McNabb has been through all the ups and downs in the NFL. He knows nothing is certain, but he also knows that we’ve been questioning his return to Philadelphia for the past three years now, ever since the team drafted Kevin Kolb in 2007. Since then, Kolb has started two games and thrown four touchdowns and seven interceptions. Quarterback of the future? Maybe. But the future isn’t now.

That said, the speculation certainly makes for a fascinating offseason storyline. Michael Vick showed fans flashes of being a game-changer in his limited role, spiking his value to Philadelphia‘s front office if the franchise choose to trade him. Brian Westbrook, on the other hand, missed seven games this season after concussions left him in haze. Will he return? It’s hard to say. Perhaps more intriguing, will he return to the Eagles? If he chooses to play again in 2010, the Eagles might request a pay-cut; should he refuse, he might have to take his talent and injuries elsewhere.

Westbrook hasn’t averaged fewer than four yards per carry in a season in his career. He only touched the ball 86 times this past season, but he still netted 455 yards from scrimmage and scored two touchdowns. There are plenty of teams that would pay for that kind of production, history of injuries or not. After all, he only missed a combined four games in the previous three seasons. And concussions, while obviously serious in the long term, are not as much of a deal breaker as, say, a knee injury.

Michael Vick doesn’t have come with injury baggage, though. His baggage is of another kind. But, again, there are teams very willing to look past his history and at his performance on the field. He was used only sparingly in Philadelphia’s offense, but that didn’t stop him from showcasing his talent and passing for 86 yards and a touchdown and rushing for another 95 yards and two touchdowns. Those numbers don’t exactly pop off the page, but when you consider he only handled 13 pass attempts and ran with it 24 times out of what was essentially a “gadget” formation, it’s enough to convince some teams he can still start at quarterback.

Consider the Redskins. Jason Campbell hasn’t proven he can be a starter or a winner in this league. Add to the equation a new head coach and different philosophy, and Campbell’s time may be up. The team can afford to get Vick and put him on the field to shake things up and increase the offense’s volatility. Of course, would the Eagles be willing to trade Vick to a division rival? Probably not.

So how about the Raiders? Vick is fast with a strong arm, the two key indications of an ideal Raiders prospect. Jamarcus Russell certainly seems to be a bust at this stage, so why not give Vick a shot to lead the team somewhere? He complements the rest of the offense - bad O-line, fast receivers, explosive running back - so if Oakland can put together a trade package, don’t be surprised to see Vick in silver and black.

Just don’t expect the Eagles to deal McNabb and keep Vick around. There are plenty of McNabb haters in Philadelphia, but Andy Reid isn’t one of the team. He wants his quarterback around in 2010, and it’s hard to find any fault in his logic: McNabb is coming off a season in which he passed the ball for 3,553 yards and 22 touchdowns. Overall, his numbers the past two seasons have been the best statistically of the past five years.

Whatever happens this season, stay tuned. The Eagles need to consider trading three players at key positions, and where they end up will have big implications for 2010.

Top 10 Things We Learned in the 2009 Season

Tuesday, January 5th, 2010

Another season of fantasy football is wrapped up, leaving some champions and others wondering where they went wrong. Before the postseason kicks off there are dozens of nuggets we learned — or, in some cases, relearned — which may be useful in 2010. Hey, it’s never too early to start thinking about next season, is it?

1. Aaron Rodgers is an elite fantasy football quarterback with one of the best receiving corps in football. Donald Drivers had a terrific season at age 34 and Greg Jennings remains a game-changer. But one of the key notes concerning Rodgers is his ability to spread the ball around. Five players had more than 30 receptions, and five had at least four touchdown receptions. Rodgers himself finished with 4,434 yards, 30 touchdown passes, and just seven interceptions, not to mention he led all quarterbacks in rushing with 316 yards and five additional scores. The Packers offense will continue to roll as long as he’s around, especially with up-and-coming receivers like James Jones and the ultra-talented tight end Jermichael Finley.

2. The Colts know how to draft receivers who fit their offense. Peyton Manning had two receivers with 100 receptions — Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark — but the biggest surprises were Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. Those two combined for 107 receptions, 1,441 yards, and 11 touchdowns, despite missing some games. It reinforced Manning’s status as the premier fantasy quarterback — he passed for 4,500 yards and 33 touchdowns — and reminded fans that Manning doesn’t need Marvin Harrison or Brandon Stokley to be successful: he makes his weapons dangerous.

3. Tony Romo is really good — even in December. Romo finished with 4,483 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions and turned Miles Austin into a fantasy juggernaut. Just as important, Romo caught fire when the temperature dipped: from December to January he averaged 310 passing yards per week and threw nine touchdowns and just two interceptions in five games. And end-of-season collapse be damned: the ‘Boys finished 5-2 in the final seven weeks, sweeping their final three games at New Orleans, at Washington, and as hosts to the Eagles to win the division.

4. Chris Johnson is flat out unstopable. He broke 2,000 yards rushing on 358 carries, adding an addition 50 receptions for 503 yards. He scored 16 times and carried the Titans offense on his shoulders as far as he could, despite defenses knowing he was Tennessee’s only real weapon. Unfortunately, that didn’t mean a playoff berth. However, if you had him on your fantasy roster, he probably got you more than a few wins: he broke 150 yards from scrimmage an incredible 10 times and rushed for 100+ yards 11 consecutive weeks to close the season. Something tells me he’ll be the first player off draft boards next season.

5. These New (York) Jets are bringing pride to the fans. Rex Ryan has coached his Jets to a playoff berth with only the fundamentals in mind: run the ball really well and shut down opposing offenses. It actually seems like this team is winning in spite of rookie Mark Sanchez, who tossed 20 interceptions and just 12 touchdowns. But Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene 1-2 kidney-punched defenses this season 439 times for 1,902 yards and 16 touchdowns. The rest of the offense rushed for an additional 854 yards and chipped in five more touchdowns. And the blitz-happy defense? It ranked first in points, yards, and passing yards.

6. Matt Schaub can sure throw a football when he’s healthy. Everyone knew he had potential, especially with Andre Johnson, arguably the league’s best wide receiver, at his disposal. But did anyone think he’d pass for more yards than Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady? Schaub nailed his targets for 4,770 yards to lead the league and tacked on 29 touchdown passes. Incidentally, he also led the league in passing attempts (583) and completions (396).

7. Philip Rivers’ 2008 season was no fluke. Rivers matched or bettered his numbers in nearly every major passing category, save touchdowns. He completed roughly the same percentage of his passes for more yards (4,254) and fewer interceptions (9). He even ran for a touchdown this season, the second of his career. As for those touchdowns, he might not have hit 34 again, but he did pass for a very respectable 28 and proved to fans and critics that he’s as good as anyone else in the league.

8. The Denver Broncos need a new face at quarterback, someone more like — dare I say? — Jay Cutler. Cutler has his flaws (he showed them this season when he threw 26 interceptions), but Denver needs a quarterback who can take chances and win games, not a game-manager. Kyle Orton played well enough when the defense was shut-down, but he couldn’t be counted on to lead the offense from behind. His failures were one of the critical reasons Denver dropped 8 of its final 10 to miss the postseason.

9. Vincent Jackson is quietly stellar. He has one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL tossing him the football (Philip Rivers), and he’s improved his numbers every season he’s been in the league. This season he caught 68 passes for 1,167 yards (that’s 17.2 yards per catch) and nine touchdowns. Imagine if he improves again next season — be sure you don’t pass on him in your draft.

10. Brandon Marshall is going to make some quarterback very happy next season. Because his contract expires and his demand will be through the roof, Denver might not be able to retain him. And after head coach Josh McDaniels benched him week 17, one wonders whether the franchise wants to retain him. Character issues aside, Marshall is a brilliant receiver and a game-changer. He caught 100 passes for the third consecutive season and had his first double-digit touchdown year to boot. Expect more great things wherever he suits up next season, maybe even in Chicago, to reunite with Jay Cutler and bolster an otherwise below-average corps of receivers.

Fantasy Football Year in Review

Friday, January 1st, 2010

The fantasy football season has concluded in many leagues, and will reach it’s denouement in other leagues shortly. And with that in mind, and a new year upon us, now seems like a good time to review, position-by-position, what went on this season, and compare it to what we thought would happen going into the year. (Note: All statistics are through Week 16)

QUARTERBACKS

BIGGEST BUST - Matt Cassel, Kansas City: After being traded to the Chiefs and signing a big new contract, Cassel came into this season as, at worst, a QB2, with some fantasy football owners considering him as a possible low-end starter, depending on the match-up. He hasn’t lived up to the contract he signed, and he wasn’t even on most fantasy radars after the beginning of the season. He is 21st in the NFL in passing yards with 2,717, tied for 20th in touchdown throws with 16, is tied for seventh in the league with 15 interceptions, and is 28th with a completion percentage of 55.0.

- Runners-Up: Jay Cutler, David Garrard

BEST VALUE - Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos: Orton was considered far down the totem pole of fantasy quarterbacks, and though he certainly wasn’t an every week starter, he was solid enough to play if the match-up was correct. He threw for 20 touchdowns, which was tied for 16th in the NFL, and 3,371 yards, which was 15th. Orton didn’t hurt his fantasy owners with negative points much, either, throwing only eight interceptions.

- Runners Up:  Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger

RUNNING BACKS

BIGGEST BUST - Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders: While nobody had McFadden as a first-round pick, it was generally thought that he would make a solid contribution as a RB2, or flex play on most weeks. To say that hasn’t happened is an understatement. McFadden was on most waiver wires at the end of the season with numbers that were paltry even when you consider the fact that he missed four games. The former Arkansas Razorbacks star has run for 348 yards, at 3.5 per carry, and just one touchdown, with 21 catches for 245 yards. If anybody told you before the season that McFadden would have three times the amount of lost fumbles as he did touchdowns going into the season’s final week, would you have believed it?

- Runners Up: Steve Slaton, Larry Johnson

BEST VALUE - Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers: This was a close call, as both Ray Rice and Ricky Williams were close, but they were likely drafted higher than Mendenhall. But considering that Mendenhall didn’t play much last season due to injury, and had all of 45 yards through the season’s first three games, he gets the nod. Mendenhall is 11th in the NFL in rushing with over 1,000 yards, and has scored seven touchdowns.

- Runners Up: Rice, Williams

WIDE RECEIVERS

BIGGEST BUST - T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seattle Seahawks: Houshmandzadeh came to Seattle over Minnesota in part because he liked the team’s quarterback situation more. That turned out to be a great thing for the Vikings, who saw players like Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin emerge, while Houshmandzadeh struggled all season, ranking 29th in the NFL with 845 receiving yards, and, most disappointingly, just three touchdown catches, which ranks him tied for 66th in the league, and behind players like Louis Murphy and James Jones.

- Runners Up: Terrell Owens, Ted Ginn

BEST VALUE - Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys: If Austin was drafted at all in fantasy leagues, it was near the bottom of the draft. And through the season’s first four weeks, you saw why, as he caught just five passes for 81 yards in the first quarter of the season. But he caught 10 passes for 250 yard and two scores in Week 5 in Kansas City, and is now fifth in the NFL with 1,230 receiving yards and fourth with 11 touchdown catches.

- Runners Up: Sidney Rice, Mike Sims-Walker

TIGHT ENDS

BIGGEST BUST - Anthony Fasano, Miami Dolphins: After catching 34 passes for 454 yards and seven touchdowns last year, many fantasy owners believed Fasano was on his way to bigger and better things in his fourth season. Unfortunately, he’s gone backwards, and has just two touchdowns among his 29 receptions, along with 298 receiving yards, which is 29th in the NFL among tight ends.

- Runners Up: Martellus Bennett, Bo Scaife

BEST VALUE - Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers: Fantasy owners have been waiting for Davis to break out, but after he regressed statistically last season, many had given up hope. He was still a draftable player, but nobody believed he’d accomplish what he has so far this season. He’s more than doubled his numbers in every category from 2008 to this season, and has 72 receptions for 876 yards. More importantly, he’s caught 12 touchdown passes, which is tied for second in the NFL.

- Runners Up: Jermichael Finley, Brent Celek

Vince Young: Fantasy-Worthy the Rest of the Way?

Friday, November 27th, 2009

Installing Vince Young in your fantasy football lineup during the most critical part of the season isn’t going to make your team turn into the fantasy equivalent of the ’99 Rams or ’07 Patriots – just look at Young’s fantasy points-per-week on the graph below – but that doesn’t mean he can’t be at least somewhat beneficial.

True, he has thrown for over 175 yards just once in his last four starts, and has not thrown for multiple touchdowns in any of them, but at this point in the season, those fantasy owners who are in need of a quarterback for the fantasy playoffs have probably already made due with a lesser player at that position anyway, and instead have leaned on the strengths of their running backs and wideouts. Essentially, if you need a player like Young, you’re just looking for him not to kill you.

And any fantasy football owner who has used Young before is familiar with the pain he can cause. In 2007, for example, in his second season and with fairly big expectations after his rookie of the year campaign in 2006, he didn’t throw for 200 or more yards until Week 10, threw for multiple touchdowns in only three contests, and had more interceptions than touchdown passes in nine different games.

But the 2009 version of Vince Young is a seemingly different player, and one that needn’t be completely ignored by fantasy enthusiasts. Part of the reason for that is his match-ups the rest of the way. First of all, he has four home games over the next five weeks, including three straight at home from Weeks 14-16, which are dates that make up the fantasy playoffs in most leagues. But starting this week, really only two of his five match-ups that remain in the fantasy season could be deemed unfavorable – Week 13 against the Colts in Indy and Week 16 against the Chargers.

This week, however, he faces the Cardinals, who are just 27th in pass defense, and 18th (tied) in passing scores allowed. He follows that up with the Indianapolis game before facing St. Louis, Miami and San Diego. The Rams are 24th in the league in pass defense and 18th (tied) in passing touchdowns allowed, while the Dolphins are 22nd in pass defense and 12th in passing touchdowns given up. However, Miami and Oakland are the only two NFL teams to have given up four rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks, and the Rams are one of just seven teams to have allowed at least two rushing scores to opposing signal-callers. On top of that, St. Louis and Miami are both in the bottom-half of the NFL in interceptions.

So, should you count on Young to single-handedly win you a fantasy championship? Of course not. But will he impede you in accomplishing that goal like he has in the past? Not if you use him wisely he won’t.

Fantasy Leaders by Position

Wednesday, November 11th, 2009

Now that we’re about at the halfway point of the NFL and fantasy football season – if there is such a thing in a 17-week season – it seems like a good time to take a look at the leaders at each position in terms of fantasy points to see how things have shaped up to this point. We’ll start, naturally, at the quarterback position.

QUARTERBACKS

Aaron Rodgers is tied for third in touchdown passes in the league, and just sixth in the NFL in passing yards, so how could he be the No. 1 player at his position in fantasy points? The answer is really quite simple: running the ball. His 214 rushing yards are more than any other quarterback, and his two rushing scores are tied for first. As far as surprises go, seeing Kurt Warner below the likes of Carson Palmer and just ahead of Eli Manning qualifies, as most fantasy owners figured he’d be much further up in the rankings. But Warner wouldn’t even be that high up if not for his 30-point game last week – his first of the season with more than 20 points.

RUNNING BACKS

The cluster at the top of the running back position is among players that everyone figured would be there. Maurice Jones-Drew has almost 200 fewer rushing yards than Chris Johnson, but with 11 touchdowns, he also has nearly double Johnson’s total of six. There’s no need to look far if you’re searching for surprises. Ray Rice is fourth in large part due to his 436 receiving yards – which is over 100 yards more than any other running back in the NFL. And Ricky Williams in the top-10? Who’d of thunk it?

WIDE RECEIVERS

The wideout position is the one where things have pretty much gone according to plan. Vincent Jackson’s ascendance to the top shouldn’t have come as much of a surprise considering his career arc up until this season, and the giant steps forward he had been progressively making. Miles Austin is really the only name you’ll see on this leader board that was not projected to be there. Many fantasy owners thought he had a chance to make headway into fantasy relevance this season, but to explode the way he has in just the last few games is a unique occurrence.

TIGHT ENDS

Many fantasy owners had about given up on Vernon Davis, and for good reason. He was a top-10 pick with phenomenal physical abilities who was underachieving. But that all changed this season, and he’s the No. 1 scorer in fantasy points at his position, due mostly to his seven touchdowns, which leads all tight ends. Brent Celek was a very solid sleeper before the season, and that’s paid off for those who heeded that advice. Someone who hasn’t paid off, however – Jason Witten, who is actually tied with Chris Cooley for 15th in fantasy points, because he hasn’t found the end zone often enough. Or found it at all, really, as he has just one touchdown reception on the season.

Second-Half Schedule Beasts - Quarterbacks

Wednesday, October 21st, 2009

Warning – a good start to a fantasy season is not always what it seems. It’s great to have a quarterback on your squad who is outperforming expectations early in the season, and it’s even better if they continue to play well throughout the year. But as any veteran fantasy owner will tell you, that doesn’t always happen. One reason why? Schedule. A player who has faced a beer-belly soft schedule can take advantage of that, only to run into stiffer competition later in the season. Here are some players who fall under that category. By no means is this proof that these players will completely fall off the grid as the season progresses, just don’t be surprised to see their numbers ebb somewhat.

Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings: Favre has surprised many with the outstanding play he’s shown thus far. He’s currently third in the NFL in quarterback rating, completion percentage and touchdown passes, yet he hasn’t faced the league’s most daunting pass defenses. Through Minnesota’s first six games, he’s faced a pass defense ranked better than 20th just one time, and four teams who are 17th or worse in passing touchdowns allowed. Things will get a bit more difficult as the season progresses, as the Vikings play six teams the rest of the way who are ranked 14th or better in pass defense, including the Panthers and Giants, who are first and second in the NFL in that category.

Matt Schaub, Houston Texans: Schaub is excelling, leading the league with 14 passing scores and is second with 1,810 passing yards. His schedule has not consisted of the highest quality pass-defense, though. In fact, of the six games Schaub has played, four have come against the five worst pass defenses in the NFL, and just one has come against a team in the top half of the league in defending the pass. Over the rest of his season, Schaub will still face some easy competition in the form of division foes Tennessee and Jacksonville, but he’ll also go up against four teams who are in the top-10 in pass defense.

Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens: Flacco is currently fourth in the NFL in passing yards, third in completions, and tied for sixth in touchdown throws. Yet four of the six teams he’s gone up against have ranked 23rd or worse in pass defense. Moving forward, seven of his remaining ten games are against teams who are in the top-half of the league in pass defense, and five are against teams who rank 12th or better in that category.

Joe Flacco is 6-0 This Season

Sunday, October 18th, 2009

Poor Joe Flacco. Baltimore’s up-and-coming quarterback was brilliant in Sunday’s game against the Vikings. He passed for 385 yards and two touchdowns on the day, and he led the Ravens’ two minute offense 41 yards with no timeouts to Minnesota’s 26-yard line with :02 showing on the clock.

But it was all in vain. A blown field goal as time expired ended hopes of handing Minnesota’s its first loss of the season, and for the second week in a row Flacco found himself powerless on the sideline as the Ravens lost another gut-wrencher.

Last week against Cincinnati he drove the Ravens 69 yards and scored a go-ahead touchdown with 6:59 to play. On the Ravens next possession he drained the clock to 2:28 and put the Ravens in a spot to pin the Bengals deep with a punt. A touchback was followed by an 80-yard touchdown drive by Cincinnati that left Flacco with too little time to make a comeback. It was Cincinnati’s second consecutive loss after their 3-0 start.

Today was no different. Flacco sat on the sideline and watched Brett Favre drive 66 yards, draining Baltimore’s timeouts to set Ryan Longwell up with a 31-yard field goal. Longwell nailed it to put the Vikings ahead 33-31 with just under two minutes to play.

On the ensuing possession Flacco did his best Favre-impression, standing toe-to-toe with a future hall of fame quarterback (assuming he does really retire at some point). Operating out of shotgun he drove the Ravens down the field, completing 4-of-6 for 38 yards before trying to catch the Vikings off-guard with a deep toss off a fake spike. On the next play he handed off to Ray Rice before spiking the ball with :02.

Flacco put his faith in second year kicker Steven Hauschka, just as Brett Favre had trusted Ryan Longwell. This time, however, Hauschka pushed the kicked wide left as Flacco’s heart sunk on the sideline.

He’s not a perfect quarterback, and that’s not the argument here. He threw three interceptions in the two games before the matchup at Minnesota and his completion percentage against New England was an abysmal 57 percent, and he threw two interceptions in the loss.

The point here is, he’s put the Ravens in a position to win every single game this season. Even against New England, he led the Ravens to the 14-yard line and threw a perfect pass to Mark Clayton on fourth down.

He dropped it.

Despite consistently putting the Ravens in a position to win Baltimore has only come out on top half the time. The past three weeks of the season they’ve been on the losing end of games. This team, if it could pull through in the final minutes of games, would be undefeated. They’re far better than the record shows; Baltimore is still my favorite to win the AFC North, despite being third in the division at this stage. Their week seven bye could not have come at a better time, and I think we’ll see a rejuvenated franchise when they return to the field next week.

And if the rest of the team is reinvigorated we’re going to see the Ravens with their full potential. Joe Flacco is at that stage; it’s time for the rest of the team to join him and win some more ball games.

Did You Realize…? (Quarterbacks)

Tuesday, October 13th, 2009

It’s easy to dismiss Aaron Rodgers this season. He’s the most sacked quarterback in the NFL and through five weeks he has just six touchdowns. At first glance his numbers don’t look impressive.

Until you look deeper.

Though Rodgers has been sacked 20 times and has dealt with constant, unrelenting pressure, his fantasy numbers are among the best in the NFL.

Did you realize that through four games, Rodgers is averaging 1 1/2 touchdowns per game, enough to place him in the top ten, and 274.5 yards per game, the sixth best mark in the NFL? The addition of Mark Tauscher should bolster the offensive line, especially later this season, and Rodgers’ numbers could climb further.

Here are several other facts and statistics you might not know about other quarterbacks.

Did you realize …

… through five games, Peyton Manning hasn’t missed out on throwing for at least 300 yards.

… he’s also thrown at least two touchdowns per game the past four weeks.

… brother Eli has the second ranked passing yards per attempt average (Peyton is first).

… he’s also ranked second in passing touchdowns (10).

… Matt Schaub has thrown 10 touchdowns in the past four weeks of the season.

… Brett Favre has thrown at least one touchdown each game this season and at least two in three games.

… Kerry Collins, who threw seven interceptions last season, has already thrown seven this season.

… Tom Brady is averaging more attempts per game than any other quarterback this season (41.4).

… Ben Roethlisberger (73.8) and Peyton Manning (73.5) are the only two quarterbacks in the NFL with a completion percentage above 70.

… in five games, JaMarcus Russell has thrown four interceptions and has a 47.1 passer rating.

… in three games, Derek Anderson has thrown five interceptions and has a 39.0 passer rating.

… Ben Roethlisberger is averaging nearly 90 passing yards per game more this season (294.0) than he did last season (2.6.3).

Trends: Late 2008, Early 2009

Tuesday, October 13th, 2009

Are you surprised that your early-round pick has flopped so far this season, or that one of your later picks is playing past your expectations so far? You shouldn’t be, at least not if you had looked at what was taking place towards the end of the 2008 season. Let’s check out a few trends that began towards the end of last season that have continued through the beginning of the 2009 season.

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys: Romo started to falter in Week 14 last season, a trend that continued the rest of the year. Over his final four games of the 2008 campaign, Romo averaged 222 passing yards per game while completing 56 percent of his throws with five touchdowns and six interceptions. Though his big game against the Chiefs last week buoyed his numbers, Romo has still been merely average so far this season, averaging 268 passing yards per contest and tossing six touchdowns with four interceptions while completing 58 percent of his throws. Accuracy seems to be the biggest issue facing Romo. Over his last nine games, he’s completed 60 percent or more of his throws just twice.

Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers: Going in the opposite direction of Romo starting towards the tail end of the 2008 season was Jackson. After just one game of at least 85 receiving yards through that season’s first 13 weeks, Jackson went over that mark three times in the final four games of the year. He averaged five catches for 99 yards in that span, and caught two touchdowns. Through San Diego’s first four games of the 2009 season, Jackson has two touchdowns and twice has had at least 120 receiving yards.

Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins: Portis hasn’t crashed and burned this season, but he hasn’t performed as fantasy owners hoped he would. Through his first five games, Portis is averaging nearly 68 rushing yards per contest and has scored just one time. His delve into statistical mediocrity began last season in Week 13. After having rushed for 120 or more yards in six of the Redskins’ previous eight games, Portis finished the final five weeks of the season averaging only 56 yards per game. And though he scored twice, he also lost two fumbles in that time.

Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts: Already this season, Clark has had three games of at least 75 receiving yards, and just once – in Week 1 – has he not had at least 60 receiving yards. He’s averaging seven receptions for 88 yards in per game this season, and has scored two touchdowns. His surge actually started in Week 15 of 2008, against the Lions. After not having a 100-yard receiving game all year, Clark had two such contests with at least 100 yards over the season’s final three weeks, and he scored twice while averaging nearly nine receptions and 102 yards per game.

Top Five Trends and Early Season Analysis: Baltimore Ravens

Saturday, October 10th, 2009

We’re four weeks into the season, and 28 of the NFL’s 32 teams have played their first four games. There was a lot to glean from these games, and an important aspect of fantasy football is recognizing trends and adjusting to them. This series of posts hopes to shed some light on all 32 teams through statistical analysis.

1) Joe Flacco’s putting up outstanding numbers. The best part: he’s doing it against both the weak and strong points on the schedule. He threw two touchdowns against both San Diego and New England (both road games), has two 300-yard games this season, and has yet to see the passing game kept out of the endzone this season. He already has 1,100 passing yards and eight touchdowns, putting him on pace for over 4,400 yards and 32 touchdowns over 16 games; even if he doesn’t hit those numbers, this season is far from a sophomore slump.

2) Willis McGahee is a touchdown machine. Last week was the first he was shut out of the endzone on the ground, but he still managed a receiving score. In his previous three games McGahee rushed for five touchdowns and caught a sixth. Despite just 42 touches in four games, McGahee already has seven scores this season.

3) Though he’s not getting a consistent number of touches, Ray Rice is developing into a solid running back. He hasn’t carried more than 11 times since week one but still has 309 yards from scrimmage in that span. When he did carry 19 times week one Rice rushed for 108 yards. He has 429 yards from scrimmage in four games; the only downside is that he has just one touchdown. McGahee is a touchdown vulture this season. Rice is the yards in this offense and McGahee is the touchdowns.

4) Flacco spreads the ball around. Five players have between 14 and 19 receptions this season; Derrick Mason leads the team with 19 for 284 yards and 2 touchdowns. Speaking of touchdowns, five receivers have an endzone reception this season, and three have two: Todd Heap, McGahee, and the aforementioned Mason.

5) Derrick Mason has tremendous numbers … and his game numbers are improving on a weekly basis. In the first two weeks of the season he caught seven passes for 78 yards; the last two weeks he’s caught 12 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns. His is quickly becoming an impressive season as he vies for more of Joe Flacco’s attention.

(Below is a graph displaying Mason’s fantasy points on a weekly basis.)

Derrick Mason Fantasy Points

(To put it in perspective, next is a graph displaying Mason’s fantasy points the last two weeks, stacked against all other wide receivers. Mason is tied for third on the list.)

WR Fantasy Points - Weeks 3 and 4