• While I have to wait until Super Bowl XLIV to accurately state that New England has held off Pittsburgh as the team of the decade, right now I can undoubtedly say that the Colts and the Ravens have had the decade’s best offenses and defenses, respectively.  But in their recent matchups, both the offense AND the defense of the Colts have overpowered the Ravens.  The teams have met each year since 2004 and Indy has gone 6-0 in those matchups.  The dominant defense in those contests has belonged to Indianapolis as they have allowed four offensive TDs to the Ravens while the Colts’ offense has scored 16 offensive touchdowns on the Ravens’ defense.

• Vince Young has won eight straight starts with the eight starts spread over three seasons.  Although unique, it’s not the first time a QB has won at least eight straight games with the starts spread over more than two seasons.  Trent Dilfer won 15 straight games (including playoffs) with two different teams earlier this decade.  He started the streak in November 2000 with the Ravens, was an undefeated part-time starter with the Seahawks the following year, and didn’t have the streak end until September 2002.

• Tom Brady has not quite been Tom Terrific away from Foxboro recently.  Brady is 0-4 in his last four starts played in American stadiums other than Gillette Stadium with losses to the Giants in the Super Bowl and losses to the Jets, Broncos, and Colts this year.  (The American part is used to distinguish the Tampa Bay game which was played in England and was more of a home game for the Patriots than the Bucs even though it was listed as a “home game” for Tampa Bay.)

• Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 98 yard TD pass to Terrell Owens was the first 98 yard pass completion since 1998.  It was only the third 98 yard TD pass since 1966 and during this 43 year span there have been eight 99 yard TD passes.

• With 103 rushing yards vs. the Patriots, Thomas Jones passed Jim Taylor and Terry Allen to move into 30th all time in rushing yards.  The 31-year-old Jones has averaged 4.6 yards per carry in his 30s as compared to 3.9 yards per carry in his 20s.  Of the 29 players with more career rushing yards than Jones, only four of them also had a better average in their 30s than their 20s (Tiki Barber, Warrick Dunn, Ricky Watters and the still active Fred Taylor).

• Speaking of old running backs; Ricky Williams is on pace for over 1,000 rushing yards despite starting just one game.  If Williams can maintain his current pace, then he will become only the 4th running back in the past 30 years to gain at least 1,000 yards at the age of 32 or older.  Both Walter Payton in 1986 and Emmitt Smith in 2001 eclipsed 1,000 yards at the age of 32 while John Riggins did it at 34 in 1983 and then did it again at 35 in 1984.

• The Kansas City Chiefs only have one rushing touchdown this year.  If they maintain their futility in scoring on the ground for the rest of the season, then they will tie the NFL record for fewest rushing touchdowns in a season.  The 1934 Brooklyn Tigers are the only team in NFL history to only score a single rushing touchdown in a season.

• If Chad Ochocinco can gain 360 more receiving yards by the end of the season, then he will become only the fifth player in NFL history to gain 10,000 receiving yards in that player’s first nine years in the league.  Ochocinco would join Jerry Rice, Marvin Harrison, Randy Moss, and Torry Holt who set the record with 11,864 receiving yards in his first nine years in the league.

• This current Broncos collapse is very similar to the one they had in 2006.  Three years ago the Broncos started off 5-1 thanks to their defense: they only allowed 7 points per game through those first six.  Then from the seventh game on their record was 4-6 and they allowed 26 points per game.  This season the Broncos again started off hot thanks to their defense: they only allowed 11 points per game through the first six.  Then comes game seven and since then Denver is giving up 29 points per game and gone 0-4.  That 2006 team didn’t make the playoffs and I don’t see this current Broncos squad making it either.

• The Raiders’ win against the Bengals was noteworthy for two reasons.  One, it was the game that Oakland had picked before the season even started to honor former player, Marquis Cooper, who died in a boating accident in March of this year.  The other reason that made it significant was the fact that the Raiders scored twice in the final minute for a win for only the second time in their franchise’s 50 year history.  The first time?  You may have heard of it described as the “Heidi Game”.

I usually like to write about topics that are significant to fantasy football. Jamarcus Russell is rarely included in any of these articles, since he has little, if any, fantasy football value. I rarely watch Oakland games or pay attention to Russell and after watching the Raiders vs Chiefs game this weekend, I remember why. 

One would expect that a starting QB entering his second full season would be able to throw the football. Now, I’m not talking about his arm strength or his release speed, but his accuracy (or lack thereof). I have never seen so many passes into the ground, behind the receiver, over the head of the receiver, wide open misses, and poorly located throws. Starting QBs don’t perform like this for long, before getting pulled…even the game manager type QBs.  To me, this is not something that can easily be corrected with a new throwing motion or coaching approach. If it was easy to fix, it would have been fixed already. Instead, this seems like a fundamental flaw in his ability.

Given this flaw..why would the Raiders stick with Russell? If they recognized that this was a problem, they would have kept Jeff Garcia on the team and given him a fair chance to lead the team. After all, a QB that can throw completions, is better than one that can’t. It can’t be blamed on the WRs either, since they are capable receivers and most of the bad passes are incomplete due to the throw not the catch. Is it due to big player contracts?…are they unable to afford another QB in the draft or free-agency because of the large contracts they’ve signed to their younger players? Or is it Al Davis?

Whatever the reason, Russell will continue to have no fantasy value and little actual value if he continues to miss the target.

• Observation: The Colts’ offensive line is still struggling to create open lanes for their running backs.  Against the Lions, the Colts only averaged 2.6 yards per carry which is an upgrade over what they averaged last week vs. Philadelphia, which was 2.1 yards per carry.  This comes after last year’s league-worst rushing average of 3.6 yards per carry.

• Analysis: It looks like another bleak year for Joseph Addai who has posted one 100 yard rushing game since Week 9…of 2007.  The Colts didn’t draft Donald Brown for him to sit on the bench and with his 6.1 average during the preseason; he will have a bigger role than Dominic Rhodes had last season.  I don’t understand why people are still drafting Addai in rounds 3-4 when his production will likely be equal to that of Brown.  It’s a much better value to wait three more rounds and draft Brown who could be the starter by season’s end.

• Observation: Cadillac Williams will factor into the backfield rotation for the Bucs.  Williams was forced into extended playing time last year once Earnest Graham got injured.  Cadillac ran for 54 yards on eight carries vs. the Dolphins’ first-team defense.

• Analysis: Coach Raheem Morris says he envisions a three-man rotation for Williams, Derrick Ward, and Earnest Graham.  Ward will definitely get the most touches as he is also the third-down back but it appears that Graham’s and Williams’ carries will be equal.  With instability at QB and unproven receivers, the Bucs may try to copy what the Giants did last year with their three backs.  If that’s the case then all three RBs are draft-worthy with Ward as the best option.  Just don’t get too enamored with Graham as there is a good chance people will overlook Williams and you can grab him in the last round, or even free agency.

• Observation: The Raiders abandoned their running game early on vs. the Saints.  Oakland had 11 rushing attempts and only eight of those were by running backs.  The starter of the game, Michael Bush, had one carry for one yard.

• Analysis: Bush started the game because both Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden had already started a preseason game.  Coach Tom Cable has not named a starter but McFadden is expected to receive the bulk of the touches.  However; the Raiders abandoning the run game once they fell behind a big deficit is troubling for anyone who owns one of the three RBs.  I expect the Raiders to face deficits like this one all season so their RBs may not see much action in the second half of games.

• Observation: Justin Gage is serving as Kerry Collins’ favorite receiver while Nate Washington is out with a hamstring strain.  Of Collins’ 14 pass attempts; five were intended for Gage who finished with 57 yards and a touchdown while playing with Collins and Vince Young.

• Analysis: Gage is being overlooked by pretty much everyone but was extremely productive when he played last season.  In his last eight games he had 604 yards and 5 TDs.  He’ll never be a high receptions guy but anyone who is his team’s #1 receiver is worth a draft pick.  With Washington out for several weeks and rookie Kenny Britt still being brought up to speed with the offense, Gage makes for a safe WR3 to begin the season.

• Observation: Percy Harvin is not yet a polished receiver.  He let a pass from Brett Favre slip threw his hands for a touchdown and also finished running a route one yard short of the first down marker.  Despite this, Harvin has been impressive during preseason.

• Analysis: Despite his raw receiver skills, Harvin will still get enough touches elsewhere to be a viable starter.  Harvin will line up everywhere for Minnesota: out wide, in the slot, as the Wildcat QB, and as the primary kick returner. If your scoring system allows point for return yards, then that increases his value.  But he is not the punt returner and he won’t get many rushes out of the backfield due to who’s ahead of him in the RB depth chart.  Thus; he should be drafted behind guys with similar skills like Darren Sproles, Leon Washington, Jerious Norwood, and Felix Jones.

• Observation: With his 88 yards against Baltimore and solid play all preseason, Mike Goodson has earned the respect of his coach, John Fox, and also earned himself more playing time during the regular season.  Fox told the Herald Online that Goodson has earned more than a “spot role” in the offense.

• Analysis: DeAngelo Williams is still the alpha male among the Panthers running backs.  Jonathan Stewart has been plagued by an Achilles injury all preseason and has missed over 15 straight practices.  Once he is healthy then he will be the clear-cut #2 back in Carolina but he may not be completely healthy until midseason.  Until then, employ Goodson as you would have done for Stewart and if he gets off to a hot start, then he may make for good trade bait.

Here’s a quick summary of a couple of the NFL Preseason Week 3 Saturday games.

DETROIT LIONS
The Lions offense was able to move down the field against the Colts. This is likely partly due to an improvement by the Lions and Colts average defense.  Daunte Culpepper started the game. It’s looking to me like Culpepper is going to start the season at QB for Detroit. Especially since Stafford looked so raw in his game last week. Culpepper is reunited with offensive coordinator Scott Linehan from the big Vikings years, so he likely has an advantage in knowing the terminology and plays. Culpepper looked ok, some inaccurate throws. Matt Stafford got on the field in the second quarter. Stafford had one good throw down the seam to Calvin Johnson, otherwise lots of handoffs, short quick passes, likely designed to help his confidence.  Calvin Johnson looked good. Is clearly going to get jump balls and fade routes in the end zone.  Kevin Smith is getting a lot of screen passes and doing a great job of picking up first downs and lots of yards after catch. He’s very elusive and is making the most of his opportunities. Kevin Smith is also getting a few goal line carries, so he’s going to get a few opportunities to score close in on the ground. Jerome Felton is otherwise the goal line guy.  Detroit defense looks better than last year (how could it not), but is still pretty porous.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The Colts looked sharp and in sync as you would expect. They confidently drove down the field and scored without a lot of resistance or challenge.  Peyton Manning looked sharp as usual. He’s clearly back to 100% for this season. Dallas Clark seems to be the favorite of Manning with several catches and an easy touchdown.  Anthony Gonzalez looks like he’s going to get more looks and TD opportunities.  Joseph Addai started the game and looked ok. Not sure if this means that Addai will be the primary back…it’s likely that Donald Brown will split carries. Donald Brown looks good.  Reggie Wayne looks ok, but didn’t get a lot of touches.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The Saints offense got a quick start and drove the field against the raiders without much problem.  Drew Brees looked sharp, quick passes and on target. He’s ready for the regular season and only played the 1st quarter after racking up a score of 21 to 0.  Lance Moore was getting lots of touches and looked good with a TD.  Jeremy Shockey looked ok, not much of a threat, but gets his touches.  Mike Bell looked good, but hasn’t had a lot of room to run. He’s looking strong and quick.  The Saints defense still doesn’t look very good.

OAKLAND RAIDERS
The Raiders were not able to move the ball and got shut out in the first half.  They turned the ball over on first drive and later had a near interception. The Raider offense may not get much time on the field, since the Raider defense is allowing long drives by their opponents.  JaMarcus Russell looked mediocre, with some good passes mixed in with some off target throws and near interception.  Michael Bush looked decent but not as good as McFadden.  Darren McFadden looked very good…running with speed and power and now catches the ball too. Not sure why McFadden didn’t start.  Raiders defense is terrible. Saints were able to pretty much do what they wanted without much resistance….scoring 3 TDs to start the game.

• Green Bay’s first team defense has yet to allow a point this preseason and has nine takeaways.  It looks like the transition to the 3-4 is working out just fine.  On third downs and obvious passing situations, the Packers are running a Nickel 2-4-5 with only two down linemen.  The blitzers can them come from any of the four LBs or even the secondary.  Pittsburgh is the only other team that uses that alignment on a regular basis and I heard they had a pretty good D last year.

• Ricky Brown will start the season at MLB for the Raiders.  Brown was in competition with last year’s starter Kirk Morrison for the job but Morrison dislocated his elbow vs. San Francisco.  He is expected to miss about a month and Brown’s performance will determine if Morrison comes back as the MLB or slides over to the strong side. Brown is off to a good start after intercepting Alex Smith a week after sacking QB Jon Kitna of Dallas.

• Second year player Malcolm Kelly is the frontrunner to start at WR opposite of Santana Moss.  That would put Antwaan Randle El back in the slot where he’s more effective.  Randle El and Moss are both 5’10” while Kelly is 6’4” so in addition to the regular looks he’ll get as starter, he will also be a huge, literally, red zone threat.

• Potential Sleeper: WR Earl Bennett.  After not catching a pass and only dressing for 10 games last season, Bennett has started both preseason games opposite Devin Hester.  He also is reunited with former Vanderbilt teammate, QB Jay Cutler, who helped him become the all-time leading receiver in the SEC.

• There will not be a QB controversy in Denver-Kyle Orton is the clear cut starter.  Orton was efficient, and looked comfortable, in Denver’s loss to Seattle.  In fact I would say he looked more like Tom Brady than Matt Cassel did last year in coach Josh McDaniel’s offensive scheme.  Besides the horrendous Jake Plummer-esque left-handed interception, Orton made all the right progressions, threw it to whomever was open, and didn’t force the ball into tight spots.  But it is clear the Broncos lack the deep threat of Brandon Marshall.  Nearly all of Orton’s passes were on three-step drops and required the WR to make the big play and gain YAC.

• WR Troy Williamson has all but sealed up one of the starting jobs at receiver in Jacksonville.  Attempting to shed his label as a “bust”, Williamson had 147 receiving yards vs. Tampa Bay and now has 221 yards in two games.  He replaces Matt Jones as the team’s deep threat and even though Jacksonville is a run-first team, last year Jones averaged 63 yards per game in 12 games which projects to over 1,000 yards in a full season.

• Pat White has yet to operate the Wildcat for the Dolphins yet.  The coaches want him to get familiar with taking a snap from under center as he rarely did that while at West Virginia.  However, the Dolphins have implemented designed runs from the QB position for White.  Don’t be surprised if White is NOT used as a Wildcat QB early in the season as Ronnie Brown is the only Dolphin to run it so far this preseason.  But as he gets more comfortable with the playbook, White should be the primary Wildcat QB in the latter half of the season.

• Look for Rashard Mendenhall to have a big fantasy impact in terms of touchdowns.  The Steelers envision him as their future starting RB as early as next year as Willie Parker’s contract expires at the end of this season.  For now Mendenhall will be relegated to being the goal-line back.  As great as Willie Parker is at running the football, he has trouble finding the endzone.  Over the past two years Parker has 557 touches but only seven touchdowns or a ratio of one touchdown for every 80 touches.  Mendenhall’s main competition for the job is Mewelde Moore who has not yet played in preseason and has not practiced since August 4 due to a hamstring injury.

Our series on potential breakout players in each division makes its way to the AFC West. Mediocrity reigned in the West in 2008, as no team had a record better than 8-8. Both Denver and San Diego managed that mark, with the Chargers being the playoff representative of the division. Each squad will be looking to improve in 2009, with the help of a few players who could come into their own, making an impact not only on their teams, but on those of fantasy owners as well. A look now at some candidates to break out.

Denver Broncos - Kyle Orton: Speaking of sheer averageness, Orton has been just that as a quarterback in his four seasons in the NFL, throwing a total of 30 touchdowns and 27 interceptions while completing just over 55 percent of his passes. But last season, he showed fantasy owners a glimmer of his potential, with 18 touchdown passes to 12 picks and nearly 3,000 passing yards. Yet most of his damage was done in the season’s first seven contests, as he threw 10 scores and was intercepted only four times to go with four games of at least 265 passing yards. He got injured shortly after that, which caused him to miss one game. Then, in his final eight games, only twice did he accumulate more than 200 passing yards while tossing eight touchdowns and eight picks. But being traded to Denver should only help the former Purdue star. He goes to an offense led by head coach Josh McDaniels, who helped mold Matt Cassel into a productive player last season in New England, and the weapons around Orton are superior to what he was working with in Chicago. He’s not a QB1 for fantasy owners, but there are far worse options to have as backups.

Kansas City Chiefs - Jamaal Charles: At this point, if you believe that running back Larry Johnson will stay healthy for 16 games, you probably also believe North Korean leader Kim-Jong Il shot five holes-in-one the first time he ever played golf, as he has claimed. Which leads us to Johnson’s backup in former third-round pick Charles. Last season, he ran for over 350 yards and averaged 5.3 yards per carry, but he’s most proficient in the passing game, as he was fourth on the team with 27 receptions and 272 yards (see graph). New Chiefs head coach Todd Haley threw the ball to his running backs often last season as Arizona’s offensive coordinator, as Edgerrin James, Tim Hightower and J.J. Arrington combined to catch 75 passes. So even during the games Johnson is healthy, Charles is a threat out of the backfield. If you do decide to select Johnson, Charles is an essential handcuff, but considering selecting him even if, like many others, you decide Johnson isn’t worth the hassle.

Oakland Raiders - JaMarcus Russell: Alright, so putting someone here who was the first overall pick isn’t exactly going out on a limb. Granted. But the guy hasn’t lived up to that billing just yet. Still, Russell finally showed some signs of life at the end of last season, when in his last three games the former LSU gunslinger threw for 626 yards, six touchdowns and two picks while completing 63 percent of his passes. And though there is reason to be skeptical - a shoddy offensive line, unproven receivers - Russell has a huge arm and can do what the Raiders have said they will ask of him (via orders by the Crypt Keeper, Al Davis), which is throw deep. So maybe, just maybe, this is the year he puts it all together.

San Diego Chargers - Craig “Buster” Davis: On a team laden with proven veterans on offense, choosing a candidate to break out was fairly simple because the options were few. So we turned to Davis, the team’s first-round pick in 2007 who has just 24 career catches to his name. Only four of those receptions came last season as he injured his groin and failed to play in a contest after Week 5. But he’s 6-foot-1 and possesses good speed and athleticism, and could force his way into the lineup if he plays to his capabilities. Yet Davis’ health has been an issue since his days at LSU, so any hope of him breaking out rests on the fact that he actually, you know, gets on the field. If so, his dynamic abilities should shine.