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Posts Tagged ‘RBs’

Evaluating the Three-headed Committees at Running Back (AFC)

Monday, September 7th, 2009

This blog is intended to shed more light on the teams that employ three or more running backs on a regular basis.  There won’t be any mention of great RB duos such as the ones in Tennessee or Atlanta because everyone knows the order in which teams like that use their backs.  Only the actual “committees” will be chronicled and I will also slot the players into their projected roles this season so you can have a better idea of their expected production.

New York Jets

  • Starter (Thomas Jones): He had a career year last year playing behind a re-tooled offensive line and with a hall-of-fame QB.  Well the O-line is still there but the QB is not and that will make a big difference.  The Jets don’t have the passing game to take pressure off the running backs so Jones will see eight men in the box much more often.   In the span of one year Jones has gone from a sleeper to a potential bust.
  • 3rd down back (Leon Washington): As one of the best change-of-pace backs in the game, Washington is a big factor in the passing game as well as the running game.  He led the NFL in all-purpose yards last season and with a rookie at QB he may get even more reception opportunities.  The arrival of Shonn Greene will only affect Jones’ carries, not Washington’s.
  • Goal line back (Thomas Jones/Shonn Greene) The Jets drafted Greene to be their eventual starting running back and he may get that role as early as this season.  The stocky Greene is perfect for short yardage situations but likely won’t get starter-carries until the Jets are out of playoff contention.  Stash him on your bench until he gets more touches later in the season.

New England

  • Starter (Fred Taylor): Taylor has started the last two preseason games and is more reliable than Laurence Maroney.  The two will split carries and the Patriots will ride whoever is hot at the moment.  Sammy Morris will also factor in but he and Maroney have combined to miss 35 games over the last three seasons due to injury/suspension.  Taylor, formerly known as “Fragile Fred” has only missed 5 games over the last three years and is the safest draft pick among the Patriot running backs.
  • 3rd down back (Kevin Faulk): There’s no doubt about who will have this role as Faulk has been the 3rd down back in all 10 of his seasons with the Patriots.  He is worth a pick in PPR leagues, just don’t expect the 507 rushing yards that he had last year.
  • Goal line back (Fred Taylor): This could also be Morris but I give the edge to Taylor because he does a better job of holding onto the ball.  But once again, New England will probably use whoever is hot and whoever picked up the most yardage on that specific drive.  Seeing how Taylor will likely be the one to receive the most rushing opportunities, then he will also be the one to likely get the goal line touches.

Baltimore

  • Starter (Ray Rice): With the departure of FB Lorenzo Neal, Le’Ron McClain will return to the fullback position on a full time basis.  Rice has the most speed and elusiveness of the three backs and will get the majority of touches.  McGahee may have a game here and there where he gets the most carries because his physical running style works better against some opponents than Rice’s style.
  • 3rd down back (Ray Rice): This is the only “certainty” among these three roles as Rice had this role last season and is the best option out the backfield for screen passes and checkdowns.  But Rice is undersized and struggles in pass protection and that could lead to more third downs for McGahee.
  • Goal line back (Willis McGahee/Le’Ron McClain): Most people expect McClain to seize this role but if he’s playing halfback then who’s the fullback?  After the release of Jason Cook, McClain is the only fullback on the roster.  During preseason McGahee received five of the seven carries for the Ravens inside the five yard line so he appears to be the frontrunner.

Cleveland

  • Starter (Jamal Lewis): For now, at least.  This situation is similar to Coach Mangini’s former team, the NY Jets, as an aging running back is likely to be phased out at some point this season by a rookie (James Davis).  The good news for Lewis is that Mangini likes veteran backs so Lewis will get the opportunity to start the season and show if he still has something left in the tank.
  • 3rd down back (James Davis): This was supposed to be Jerome Harrison’s role but he has missed three straight weeks of practice and just returned on August 31.  He is likely to have a limited role early in the season while Davis plays on third downs and if Davis impresses then he may keep that role throughout the season.
  • Goal line back (James Davis): Despite Lewis’ size, his running style is not suited for short yardage duties.  His short, choppy steps are a reason why on his 31 attempts on goal-to-go situations over the last two years, he only has 11 touchdowns.  Davis has enough power to push the pile and should be the beneficiary of the goal line touches.

Fantasy Football Reading Assignments

Wednesday, August 19th, 2009

Fantasy football is a game that depends on getting the best information in the most efficient way possible. Thanks to the explosion of fantasy football sites and bloggers online, getting that information has become a lot easier and more convenient. No more waiting until 6:00 PM/ET to spot Matthew Berry on SportsCenter; just listen to his online podcast at ESPN.com.

The purpose of this article is to point you in the direction of some other writers and bloggers who have well-developed opinions and research. Check out the following articles for words of wisdom on every fantasy postion and a few extra nuggets.

Just don’t forget to come back here and check out the all the original content!

General Fantasy Football Knowledge

If you’re on this site there’s a good chance you’re a stat junkie. I know I am. But even if you don’t fall under that category, it’s easy to appreciate the research put into this must-read article over at Advanced NFL Stats. It makes it very clear that the tight end position is growing more and more important in both NFL offenses and fantasy football as offensive coordinators take advantage of the incredible athleticism these players possess. Be sure to leave Brian a comment and thank him for the research when you’ve finished reading, too!

Okay, you might not get a whole lot out of this article outside of some entertainment, but when is that a bad thing? “The Top Five Things NOT to Do on Draft Day” is a brief read with some very practical advice. It’s all obvious but take it to heart — at least one person will commit one of the five draft days sins on the list.

Contrary to the other article, the advice dished out by Lee McFarland in this article is both practical and not quite so obvious. At this time of the year most fantasy owners are gloating over how well their drafts have gone, but McFarland makes the point that a great draft is only half the battle. Injuries and depreciating value can kill an owner who doesn’t take time to adjust his roster and hit the waiver wire during the season.

Fantasy Quarterbacks

4for4.com is breaking down Brett Favre’s upside and downside in an interesting post. I’m not ready to buy the number of interceptions they’ve projected, but give it a read. Then read this fantasy breakdown and head back here to comment.

Fantasy Running Backs

If you’re looking for fantasy football handcuffs, you should check out this blogger’s take on the top 20. That is, the top ten duos you should draft to ensure an injury doesn’t end your climb to the top of your fantasy league. You probably won’t be surprised by the names on the list, but a refresher certainly won’t hurt. Take my advice and print it before your draft; having the list with you will prevent you from forgetting to complete the handcuff.

Fantasy Wide Receivers

Everyone loves a sleeper list, so check out this read. It offers wide receivers you need to keep a pulse on, excluding rookies. The players mentioned probably are flying under the radar of most fantasy players this season, so don’t be in the dark and check it out now.

Ten Facts You Need to Know About LaDainian Tomlinson

Sunday, August 16th, 2009

LaDainian Tomlinson’s 2008 season was regarded by most as a disappointment, and considering his performances in seasons past one could justify that argument on a relative basis. Truth be told, disappointment can be argued almost solely on a basis of relativitity, and even then I believe it has been greatly exaggerated.

The following ten facts concerning Tomlinson may shed some light on his season and its misperception.

(1) Tomlinson was a very big part of the Chargers’ offense last season. It’s misleading to consider Philip Rivers’ season numbers and come away with an accurate depiction of the season. Tomlinson was the eighth ranked running back in the NFL in terms of carries per game and sixth in total carries for the season. He was also one of San Diego’s top receivers, finishing with 52 receptions — only Antonio Gates (60) and Vincent Jackson (59) had more.

(2) LT was used less often than in previous seasons, however. 2008 was the first season of his career in which he had fewer than 300 carries — he had 292 — but in terms of receptions, he was on par with his season totals dating back to 2004. The 52 receptions with which he ended the year was just short of his previous four years’ average of 55.

(3) Perhaps the biggest criticism levied against Tomlinson was lack of scoring, probably because he hadn’t scored fewer than 18 times since 2003. But while he scored six fewer times than in 2007, the Bolts’ leading back was tied for eighth in the NFL in touchdowns. He also finished seventh in terms of rushing scores, three short of being tied for third.

(4) Worried about the big 3-0? The respective years they turned 30, Barry Sanders rushed for 1,491 yards, Marshall Faulk scored 11 touchdowns, Emmitt Smith carried for 1,397 yards, and Walter Payton broke 2,000 yards from scrimmage. The reason? They were the best of the best. So is Tomlinson.

(5) Was Tomlinson’s biggest flaw last season his uncharacteristic yard per carry average? 3.8 is well short of his career 4.4 average, but it wasn’t the first time he failed to break four-point-oh. In 2001 and 2004 he was short of the mark, posting averages of 3.6 and 3.9. 2001 was his rookie season and in 2004 he led the league in rushing touchdowns. Don’t worry about the low mark — he gets enough carries to negate the effects and it’s a rare occurrence.

(6) I didn’t mention this before, so I may as well mention it now: Tomlinson posted an average of 8.2 yards per reception last season. That mark is the third highest of his career. It’s also only the second time he’s averaged more than seven yards per catch and failed to make the Pro Bowl.

(7) Speaking of Pro Bowls, 2008 was the second year since 2002 and the first since 2004 Tomlinson didn’t get enough votes. The man oozes consistency and greatness — falling short of absolutely incredible is evidently viewed by the public as being an unworthy season.

(8) Including 2008, Tomlinson has never finished a season with fewer than 1,500 yards from scrimmage. That fact speaks for itself.

(9) He’s also finished just one season with fewer than 16 starts. In 2004 he played 15 games, breaking the streak. For the record, he has played 127 of 128 possible regular season games. And as a p.s., the game he didn’t play was in week 17 of the regular season, after the Chargers had already won the AFC West.

(10) One last note: Tomlinson is one rushing touchdown short of averaging one touchdown per game for an entire career. Including receiving touchdowns he is averaging 1.11 touchdowns per game since entering the league.

(Bonus) Though many fans may already be aware, Tomlinson is second all-time in terms of rushing touchdowns, 38 scores behind Emmitt Smith’s mark of 164. Tomlinson is entering his 9th NFL season and, purely in terms of seasons after entering the league, is 14 touchdowns ahead of Smith, who played 15 seasons.

Ten Trivial (But Fun!) Facts You Didn’t Know

Monday, August 10th, 2009

Several days ago another Sports Data Hub blogger listed 20 draft day tips. To keep things interesting, I’ll tack another ten on the list and keep things rolling. My list is a bit different in that it may not actually help you on draft day. In fact, the sole point of my writing it is to keep you entertained. Hopefully I’ve succeeded.

Enjoy, and good luck in your draft!

(1) Everyone knows Peyton Manning finished strong last season — strong enough to win the league’s annual “MVP” award — but here is some perspective: had he played as well in the first seven games of the season as he did in weeks 9-16 (he only played part of week 17) he would have finished with 4,132 passing yards (even with his paltry week 17 totals), 31 touchdowns, and just 6 interceptions.

(2) Despite last season not featuring Michael Vick or Vince Young, several NFL quarterbacks still finished with above average rushing totals. Seven ended the season with at least 200 yards — notables include Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers — but no one came close to Tyler Thigpen who finished with 386 yards. Too bad he won’t be starting this season.

(3) Speaking of quarterbacks on the move, Aaron Rodgers led all quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns with four. Trent Edwards, Tyler Thigpen, and Kyle Orton were the only others to finish with more than two, and incidentally, Rodgers is still tied for the lead for the past when counting 2007. As most would point out, he didn’t play in 2007.

(4) While we talk about receivers catching the ball a lot, we oftentimes forget that they run it every once in a while. Josh Cribbs (Cleveland) led the pack with 167 rushing yards. He also caught 2 passes for 18 yards, but was most dangerous when returning kicks — he’s scored at least once on kickoff returns since entering the league in 2005.

(5) Eddie Royal is the only notable “rushing” wide receiver with at least 100 yards under his belt. The Broncos standout receiver added 109 to his year-end totals to finish with 1,089 yards from scrimmage. No word as to whether he’ll be used as often in Josh McDaniels’ system, though it is worth noting Wes Welker rushed for 60 yards between 2007-2008.

(6) While we’re talking about players doing things which we don’t oftentimes recognize, let’s talk a bit about running backs catching passes. Maurice Jones-Drew was the only running back to finish 2008 with at least 500 receiving yards — he finished with 565.

(7) Interesting to note: Matt Forte finished with more receiving yards than LaDainian Tomlinson last season, but LT was by no means a slouch. The San Diego star’s “disappointing” season saw him catch enough passes to finish with 426 yards, placing him fifth among all running backs.

(8) Running backs you might not have known were at the top of the list: Kevin Faulk (2nd - 486 yards), Chester Taylor (8th - 399 yards), Frank Gore (12th - 373 yards), and Leon Washington (13th - 355 yards). Among those players, Gore is the only one with a guaranteed lead back role.

(9) Since “point per reception” (PPR) leagues award more points to those who play a more prominent role in the passing game, it’s worth taking a look at the top 15 receiving backs. Below is a graph, but let me point out a few interesting notes: Matt Forte led the league with 63 but Maurice Jones-Drew, who didn’t get as much time on the field as Forte, managed to finish second with 62; Reggie Bush played just 10 games last season but still finished 5th; and also tied for fifth was LaDainian Tomlinson with 52 — during his “down” year.

Receiving Running Backs

(10) Last, but certainly not least, let me point out the underratedness — regardless of whether Merriam-Webster recognizes that as a word, I’m using it in my sports vernacular — of Reggie Bush. Though he’s getting a bad rap for not running circles around NFL defenders since entering the league several seasons ago he has been a very useful weapon in New Orleans’ offense. His 16 game pace last season would have set him up to finish with 170 carries (career high), 646 rushing yards (career high), 83 receptions (tied for 11th among all players), 704 receiving yards (significantly more than any other running back), and 10 touchdowns (tied for 12th among running backs). He’s been available in the fourth round of fantasy drafts, following Darren McFadden. (Source: Fantasy Football Calculator)

“Burner” to Set NFL on Fire Again?

Saturday, July 18th, 2009

One year ago Michael Turner had never carried the ball more than 80 times in a single season. He had never scored more than three touchdowns or averaged at least 40 yards per game. He was second fiddle to LaDainian Tomlinson, who has missed one NFL start since Turner joined the league in 2004. Now Turner is considered a top three fantasy back.

What changed? A season with 376 carries gave fantasy players new ideas and high hopes, as did the resulting 1,699 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. No one in the NFL carried the ball as much as Turner, and only Adrian Peterson finished with more rushing yards.

So why not make him one of the first players to come off the board when your league’s draft rolls around? He has minimal mileage and incredible size, making him mostly immune to late season breakdowns that could affect other backs. It should come as no surprise to anyone that the Falcons plan to continue using him as much as possible, despite persisting hopes the team will seek throwing the ball significantly more this season.

“[Running is] what this football team is all about,” insists head coach Mike Smith. “We’re not going to change what we do on offense. We are just going to have another option to go to. At the core, we’re going to run the football. That’s what we believe in.”

In reference to the addition of Tony Gonzalez, a move some have predicted will give the team reason to balance the offense with more passing, Smith continues: “Sure, we have another weapon in the passing game, but we like to run it more than 30 times. With Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood and our other backs, we’ve got a good stable of runners.”

This was a run-first team last season, and it will be a run first team this season. There’s no need to press Ryan throw the ball more often if the team can get away with running the ball 35 times per game like it did last season. Hey, they didn’t even lead the NFL in rushing attempts; Baltimore did - and they made the postseason, too.

If this offense does want to run the ball more often, however, Turner will play a diminished role. That doesn’t mean this is going to turn into a dreaded “running back by committee” offense, but who could expect Turner to carry 374 times again? Offensive coordinator Mike Malarkey admits it can’t happen, at least not if they want Turner to be a productive back in future seasons: “You can’t run 370 times a season. If Michael does that, he’s going to wear out over time.”

That leaves us with a Turner who might carry the ball 30-50 fewer times next season. Is that going to be an issue? Not really. Turner averaged 4.5 yards per carry in 2008, so it’s fair to suggest he can do the same this season. Averaging 20 carries per game, a decrease from the 23.3 he averaged last season, Turner’s season total could dip to 1,440 yards. That’s a fantastic Pro Bowl season.

There is one reason to think he will find the endzone significantly fewer times: Tony Gonzalez. True, Mike Smith insists this offense will be run-first, but one has to assume the area of the field Gonzalez is especially useful is in the red zone and inside the 10-yard line. Matt Ryan found his tight ends in the endzone twice last season - no way Gonzalez finishes with a total that low this season. He’s arguably the greatest receiving tight end in NFL history, and Matt Ryan is going to love him when the offense is in sniffing distance of the goal line. That might mean Turner’s touchdown total will dip to around 13. Again, that’s going to get him the Pro Bowl nod, but does it make him a top three fantasy pick? My gut tells me he’s going to finish in the top seven with the potential to make the top five. The backs I would draft ahead of him: Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Maurice-Jones Drew, and perhaps Steven Jackson.

That said, it’s tough to pass on guy playing in an offense that plans to run the ball 30-35 times on a weekly basis.

Making the Case for Jones-Drew as the Number One Overall Fantasy Pick

Monday, March 30th, 2009

Maurice Jones-Drew has been gaining fans every season he’s been in the NFL, despite splitting carries with the ever-popular “Fast” Freddy Taylor. Jones-Drew combines blazing speed with solid size and good hands, making him one of the brightest backs in the NFL, and this season, without Taylor to split carries, Jones-Drew will be relied on to lead the Jaguars running game and, as an extension of that, the run-first, pass-if-we-have-to offense.

The good news: in three seasons with the Jaguars, Jones-Drew has averaged nearly 850 rushing yards per season and 11 rushing touchdowns. Considering he’s never carried 200 times in a single season, those numbers are pretty doggone good. Imagine if he carries 250+ times in 2009: he could easily hit 1,100+ rushing yards.

But that’s not what makes Jones-Drew so special; his versatility sets him apart. Think of him as a healthy Brian Westbrook. In 2009 he set a career high with 62 receptions; more impressive, he’s averaged over 9.0 yards per catch his last three seasons in the league.

Take a gander at his weekly breakdown in 2008:

Maurice Jones-Drew receiving yards 2008

Jones-Drew consistently produced for fantasy owners in receiving yards. He didn’t always get a lot - he most commonly had between 20-30 yards per week - but those are points that owners with Adrian Peterson or Michael Turner didn’t have and probably won’t get in 2009.

Now look at the number of receptions he had during the season:

Maurice Jones-Drew receptions 2008

He caught a pass every week week of the season, a vital stat to keep in mind in case your league is among the ever-growing number awarding points per reception (PPR). Jones-Drew was a valuable asset in such leagues, averaging nearly 4 receptions per week.

It’s important that I bring this up here: I’m a firm believer in versatility in a fantasy running back. There will be times a great running back faces a tough defense and doesn’t get his yardage; other times the offense will fall behind early and resort to the pass. If you have a back on your team who doesn’t contribute to the passing offense, he’ll have bad weeks. If, on the other hand, you have someone like Jones-Drew, you can feel a little better knowing he’ll still play an important role.

Keep in mind, MJD has been a top ten back (in non-PPR leagues) two of the past three seasons while splitting carries with another back who averaged 200 carries per season. With Taylor out of the picture, Jones-Drew should see a significant jump in carries, and he should continue to flourish in the passing game, especially when considering the Jags’ lack of options at wide receiver.

Taking both factors into account, it’s easy to foresee Jones-Drew racking up 1,600+ yards from scrimmage and 15+ touchdowns over the course of the season. If you’re in a PPR league, I think the choice is obvious: he’s your guy. If you’re not in that type of league, consider his versatility and consistency and who he’s up against (in my mind, Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner) and make an educated decision.

Should Adrian Peterson Really be Drafted One Overall?

Wednesday, March 25th, 2009

Word on the fantasy street is Adrian Peterson is the unanimous number one overall pick in fantasy drafts. The logic is pretty straightforward: he’s a running back who gets a crazy high number of carries in an offense that values the run.

In fact, check out the number of games Peterson had at least twenty carries:

Adrian Peterson 20+ Carry Games

As you can see, Peterson had 11 such games. That’s always a good sign for fantasy football drafters. Not surprisingly, Peterson gained a great deal of yardage in those games, too, evidenced below:

Adrian Peterson Yards in 20+ Carry Games

In only one game did Peterson really disappoint - week 5. In all weeks, save one, he rushed for at least 100 yards, the other being a 76-yard performance week 16.

Unfortunately, herein lies a sometimes unnoticed problem: Peterson does not supplement his running game with receptions. In other words, if he doesn’t have a great week running the ball, as was the case week 5, he has little to fall back on unless he scores a touchdown.

That’s another problem: despite being a very good running back - and a highly touted fantasy back - Peterson doesn’t score a lot of touchdowns. He rushed for just 10 in 2008. While that’s not a bad number, it’s certainly not one that warrants drafting him as the number one back in fantasy football. Check out the games in which Peterson rushed for at least one touchdown:

Adrian Peterson TDs

Peterson scored in just 8 games in 2008. Observant readers will also be quick to point out he did not score a touchdown between weeks 14-16, the games set aside by most leagues as playoffs.

I don’t want to come across as if making the case Peterson isn’t a great option as a fantasy running back; no doubt he is. Unfortunately, because the Vikings pass infrequently and include him rarely, Peterson just doesn’t play a diverse role in the offense, which makes me question whether he really is worth drafting one overall.

True, he rushed for 1,760 yards in 2008. Drawbacks are numerous, though. He only supplemented that yardage with 125 receiving yards, and he only scored 10 total touchdowns. The Vikings don’t have a good enough passing game to get the offense in a position where Peterson can score a lot of touchdowns during the course of the season. Leagues awarding points per reception will especially be frustrated with Peterson, who has 40 career receptions.

I think “All Day” is a great fantasy running back, but it’s hard for me to advise drafting him first overall when backs like Michael Turner and DeAngelo Williams are scoring many more touchdowns and players like Maurice Jones-Drew and Brian Westbrook are playing much larger roles in their respective teams’ passing games. Peterson is a top three fantasy back, no doubt, but where he’s taken in that pack should be strongly considered.

Trend-Watching: Oakland Raiders RB Darren McFadden

Saturday, October 18th, 2008

Whereas my previous 15 articles concerning individual players have tried to spotlight the player who is performing to his peak this season, I’m not so sure I can do that with this particular team. Being bad isn’t the biggest reason I find it hard to see a diamond in the rough in Oakland; firing head coach Lane Kiffin is what makes it difficult. It’s always difficult to gauge how changing coaches in the middle of a season will affect a team’s success, but in any case I find it easier to spotlight rookie Darren McFadden, who isn’t living up to the fantasy promise he showed week two, for a number of reasons, the least of which is him.

McFadden, who is averaging 5.1 yards per carry this season, has rushed for at least 50 yards in one game this season. Week two against the Chiefs, McFadden rushed for 164 yards and a touchdown, thus accounting for most of his season totals to this point in the year. In four other games, McFadden has carried for just 138 yards. No touchdowns.

Is it him? Not necessarily. In those other four games, McFadden carried the ball at least 10 times just twice. The Raiders are limiting his carries, similarly to the way Minnesota limited Adrian Peterson’s carries … only to a much greater degree.

Granted, I can’t argue that McFadden has been great in those games. In the three games since his career performance, McFadden has averaged just 3.1 yards per carry. Still, it’s interesting that the Raiders have emphasized giving other ballcarriers so many carries.

Week three against Buffalo McFadden had the same number of carries as Michael Bush: 14. A week later and Bush carried twice as many times (14) as McFadden (7) against San Diego. And last week against the Saints, McFadden carried 8 times while Fargus, who started the game, carried 10 times. Last week was the first game this season in which McFadden was not considered the starter.

Who’s to blame for McFadden’s regression? Well, McFadden, for starters. He hasn’t been picking up enough yards when he does get his opportunities. At the same time, however, one wonders if McFadden is the type of runner who gets stronger as games progress. That would explain why his one good performance this season came in a game in which he carried more than 20 times (he carried 21 times).

Key Points

  • McFadden rushed for 164 yards week two; in four other games he rushed just 138 yards
  • He has scored just one touchdown this season (week 2)
  • McFadden doesn’t get many touches - he’s carried at least 10 times just twice this season

Trend-Watching: Houston Texans RB Steve Slaton

Saturday, October 18th, 2008

When you think of the Houston Texans you might not think of great offense because, in years past, great offense is not what the Texans have brought to the table. What the Texans have always seemed to peak at is mediocrity: mediocre offense, mediocre defense, mediocre record.

But when you look at this Texans offense this season, a few things jump out. First, the offense (in terms of yards per game) ranks 5th in the NFL, thanks mostly to the passing game, which ranks 6th, putting the Texans are ahead of the Colts, Chargers, and Giants. And in its last three games, Houston’s offense scored 29, 27, and 27 points.

Don’t be fooled, however, into thinking that the fantasy studs on this offense are only to be found at quarterback or receiver. No, there’s a certain running back who has already turned a few heads this season; one of which should be yours.

Rookie Steve Slaton is putting together an impressive bunch of numbers this season, pacing himself for 1,100 rushing yards, 325 receiving yards, and 13 touchdown. Those are the numbers that turn heads, regardless of whether one is a rookie or not; but for a rookie, that might just earn an award at the end of the season.

But it doesn’t matter to fantasy owners if Slaton wins Rookie of the Year honors. What does matter is whether he puts up the numbers for which he’s on pace; and indications say he just might.

Between weeks 3-5 Slaton put up some excellent numbers against some very good teams: the Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Indianapolis Colts. He netted an average of 110 yards per game against those teams, breaking 100 yards in two of the three games and falling short with 96 yards from scrimmage against Jacksonville. Slaton’s four touchdowns also came in those games, three of which were earned rushing and the other on a catch.

Slaton didn’t have the same kind of luck last week against Miami. He put up some adequate numbers - 58 rushing yards on 15 carries and 3 yards receiving - but 6 fantasy points isn’t enough for most owners. Still, his yard per carry average this season is 4.8, and one could view last week’s game as more of an oddity than the three previous games.

He doesn’t get a lot of touches (he hasn’t carried more than 20 times in a game this season), but he’s been a solid back in that, when he does get his opportunities, he takes advantage of them.

Key Points

  • Slaton was brilliant between weeks 3-5, but was only adequate in weeks 1 and 6
  • He averages 14 carries and 3 receptions per game
  • He averages scored four touchdowns between weeks 3-5

Trend-Watching: Tennessee Titans RB LenDale White

Saturday, October 18th, 2008

LenDale White didn’t get as much attention in college as he deserved, despite scoring an incredible number of touchdowns. The reason? A speedy little back named Reggie Bush made a lot of big plays and look Gale Sayers-like on the field; tough to compete with that when you’re a 240 pound bruiser.

Still, as NFL runners go, LenDale White has been more successful than Reggie Bush as a professional. White’s run-between-the-tackles mentality is well-suited for his role as a goal line back (rookie Chris Johnson is the “lightning” in the thunder-lightning equation) and this season he’s continued to prove his worth.

White has five rushing touchdowns this season, making him a valuable back in most fantasy leagues, especially when considering he has played only five games this season and he’s been kept out of the endzone in just one game: week five against the Ravens. He also tends to put up a respectable total number of rushing yards each week - he averaged just under 50 in the first three weeks of the season - complementing his scores and ensuring that he was averaging about 10 fantasy points per week (assuming 1 point per 10 yards and 6 points per touchdown).

The Titans are the only undefeated team in the NFL right now for two reasons: they have a great defense and a solid running game that keeps the ball in their control. White might not be on pace for 1,000 yards this season, but he could quietly finish with 15 or more touchdowns. He’s a great option as a RB3 in most leagues and a decent RB2 in some others (though PPR leauges can find better value elsewhere).

Key Points

  • White is on pace for 16 rushing touchdowns - last season’s leader, LaDainian Tomlinson, had 15
  • White is a great value because he scores so much, but he is on pace for more than 500 yards rushing
  • PPR league players will find him to be an okay bench player, but definitely not a starter