Whereas my previous 15 articles concerning individual players have tried to spotlight the player who is performing to his peak this season, I’m not so sure I can do that with this particular team. Being bad isn’t the biggest reason I find it hard to see a diamond in the rough in Oakland; firing head coach Lane Kiffin is what makes it difficult. It’s always difficult to gauge how changing coaches in the middle of a season will affect a team’s success, but in any case I find it easier to spotlight rookie Darren McFadden, who isn’t living up to the fantasy promise he showed week two, for a number of reasons, the least of which is him.

McFadden, who is averaging 5.1 yards per carry this season, has rushed for at least 50 yards in one game this season. Week two against the Chiefs, McFadden rushed for 164 yards and a touchdown, thus accounting for most of his season totals to this point in the year. In four other games, McFadden has carried for just 138 yards. No touchdowns.

Is it him? Not necessarily. In those other four games, McFadden carried the ball at least 10 times just twice. The Raiders are limiting his carries, similarly to the way Minnesota limited Adrian Peterson’s carries … only to a much greater degree.

Granted, I can’t argue that McFadden has been great in those games. In the three games since his career performance, McFadden has averaged just 3.1 yards per carry. Still, it’s interesting that the Raiders have emphasized giving other ballcarriers so many carries.

Week three against Buffalo McFadden had the same number of carries as Michael Bush: 14. A week later and Bush carried twice as many times (14) as McFadden (7) against San Diego. And last week against the Saints, McFadden carried 8 times while Fargus, who started the game, carried 10 times. Last week was the first game this season in which McFadden was not considered the starter.

Who’s to blame for McFadden’s regression? Well, McFadden, for starters. He hasn’t been picking up enough yards when he does get his opportunities. At the same time, however, one wonders if McFadden is the type of runner who gets stronger as games progress. That would explain why his one good performance this season came in a game in which he carried more than 20 times (he carried 21 times).

Key Points

• McFadden rushed for 164 yards week two; in four other games he rushed just 138 yards
• He has scored just one touchdown this season (week 2)
• McFadden doesn’t get many touches - he’s carried at least 10 times just twice this season

When you think of the Houston Texans you might not think of great offense because, in years past, great offense is not what the Texans have brought to the table. What the Texans have always seemed to peak at is mediocrity: mediocre offense, mediocre defense, mediocre record.

But when you look at this Texans offense this season, a few things jump out. First, the offense (in terms of yards per game) ranks 5th in the NFL, thanks mostly to the passing game, which ranks 6th, putting the Texans are ahead of the Colts, Chargers, and Giants. And in its last three games, Houston’s offense scored 29, 27, and 27 points.

Don’t be fooled, however, into thinking that the fantasy studs on this offense are only to be found at quarterback or receiver. No, there’s a certain running back who has already turned a few heads this season; one of which should be yours.

Rookie Steve Slaton is putting together an impressive bunch of numbers this season, pacing himself for 1,100 rushing yards, 325 receiving yards, and 13 touchdown. Those are the numbers that turn heads, regardless of whether one is a rookie or not; but for a rookie, that might just earn an award at the end of the season.

But it doesn’t matter to fantasy owners if Slaton wins Rookie of the Year honors. What does matter is whether he puts up the numbers for which he’s on pace; and indications say he just might.

Between weeks 3-5 Slaton put up some excellent numbers against some very good teams: the Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Indianapolis Colts. He netted an average of 110 yards per game against those teams, breaking 100 yards in two of the three games and falling short with 96 yards from scrimmage against Jacksonville. Slaton’s four touchdowns also came in those games, three of which were earned rushing and the other on a catch.

Slaton didn’t have the same kind of luck last week against Miami. He put up some adequate numbers - 58 rushing yards on 15 carries and 3 yards receiving - but 6 fantasy points isn’t enough for most owners. Still, his yard per carry average this season is 4.8, and one could view last week’s game as more of an oddity than the three previous games.

He doesn’t get a lot of touches (he hasn’t carried more than 20 times in a game this season), but he’s been a solid back in that, when he does get his opportunities, he takes advantage of them.

Key Points

• Slaton was brilliant between weeks 3-5, but was only adequate in weeks 1 and 6
• He averages 14 carries and 3 receptions per game
• He averages scored four touchdowns between weeks 3-5

LenDale White didn’t get as much attention in college as he deserved, despite scoring an incredible number of touchdowns. The reason? A speedy little back named Reggie Bush made a lot of big plays and look Gale Sayers-like on the field; tough to compete with that when you’re a 240 pound bruiser.

Still, as NFL runners go, LenDale White has been more successful than Reggie Bush as a professional. White’s run-between-the-tackles mentality is well-suited for his role as a goal line back (rookie Chris Johnson is the “lightning” in the thunder-lightning equation) and this season he’s continued to prove his worth.

White has five rushing touchdowns this season, making him a valuable back in most fantasy leagues, especially when considering he has played only five games this season and he’s been kept out of the endzone in just one game: week five against the Ravens. He also tends to put up a respectable total number of rushing yards each week - he averaged just under 50 in the first three weeks of the season - complementing his scores and ensuring that he was averaging about 10 fantasy points per week (assuming 1 point per 10 yards and 6 points per touchdown).

The Titans are the only undefeated team in the NFL right now for two reasons: they have a great defense and a solid running game that keeps the ball in their control. White might not be on pace for 1,000 yards this season, but he could quietly finish with 15 or more touchdowns. He’s a great option as a RB3 in most leagues and a decent RB2 in some others (though PPR leauges can find better value elsewhere).

Key Points

• White is on pace for 16 rushing touchdowns - last season’s leader, LaDainian Tomlinson, had 15
• White is a great value because he scores so much, but he is on pace for more than 500 yards rushing
• PPR league players will find him to be an okay bench player, but definitely not a starter

Second-year running back Le’Ron McClain wasn’t a popular fantasy draft pick. He probably wasn’t even on most fantasy football players’ radars because, well, he’s a fullback. But six weeks into the season, he’s proving himself to be a viable fantasy backup and, at least in some games this season, he’s put up starting fantasy back numbers.

The 23-year old McClain has good size. At 6′0, 260 pounds, he would prefer to run through defenders, rather than around them. And this season he’s getting plenty of opportunities to do so.

“I ran over the guy in the end zone,” McClain said of a touchdown against the Steelers. “That felt pretty good.”

Though McClain doesn’t get a lot of touches, he is most definitely the Ravens goal line back. Between weeks 3-5 he scored four rushing touchdowns while carrying the ball just 44 times, and every one of his touchdowns this season has been within two yards.

Yes, Le’Ron McClain is 100 percent a goal line back.

But here’s the sweet news: he still gets a very healthy number of touches on a weekly basis. In fact, since week 3 (the Ravens second game of the season), McClain has carried 46 times. Willis McGahee, the team’s starter, has carried 58 times in that span.

Now, here’s the catch: in games in which the Ravens cannot run the football, the primary reason being that they trail an opponent, like they did the Colts last week, McClain is probably not going to get a lot of touches. The same might hold true for games in which the Ravens have a difficult time moving the football down the field because McClain isn’t the type of player who threatens to score from any spot on the field; his longest carry this season went 17 yards.

Of course, week six is no reason to give up hope on the fullback. He averages 4.1 yards per carry this season and though against the Colts he lost two yards on two attempts, he had picked up 266 yards and four touchdowns in his previous four starts.

The Ravens situation isn’t necessarily the case of “running back by committee.” To some degree it is, yes, but it also reminds me a bit of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers when Mike Alstott was the fan favorite; Alsott made the Pro Bowl every season between 1997-2002 and scored 44 touchdowns in those years. He was arguably the NFL’s best running fullback since Larry Csonka.

Now, McClain may never get the number of carries as Alstott did in his prime. But as long as he’s handling goal line carries and picking up between 50-80 yards on any given week, he’s very much worth a spot on some fantasy team’s roster; maybe even yours.

Key Points to Remember

• McClain is on pace for 208 carries this season and, more importantly, is averaging 0.8 touchdowns per game
• He’s a goal line back in an offense that would rather run than throw
• He’s a dangerous start in weeks in which the Ravens face a tough defense or hot offense

When we look ahead to an upcoming season, there’s always a lot of speculation. Everyone knows what happened last season, and everyone knows (or should know) that won’t happen again. But we don’t know exactly what will happen, so most projections are based on statistics from the past and are typically conservative. No one predicted that Adrian Peterson would average over five yards per carry last season, nor did we expect him to be the NFL’s second leading rusher. Even if one we did, who would project that for a rookie who was prone to injuries in college?

The same goes for this season. Did anyone project Matt Forte, Darren McFadden, and Michael Turner to be top five running backs? Doubt it.

There are also a lot of lesser-known players making a significant impact. Here are five I’ve noticed that could continue to see a lot of success.

5. Fred Jackson - Buffalo Bills - Running Back

Marshawn Lynch is still the team’s number one back, but word is that the Bills are trying to incorporate their running backs into the passing game more this season. That was evidenced last week when Jackson snagged seven receptions for 83 yards. He also netted 100 yards on the day.

4. Michael Bush - Oakland Raiders - Running Back

I’m not sure of this, but the Raiders have got to be the only team in the NFL with three running backs averaging more than five yards per carry. Justin Fargus hasn’t been practicing lately (groin injury), so the ball has been given to Darren McFadden and Bush lately. And while McFadden had a great game with 164 rushing yards last week, Bush’s 90 yards and his touchdown run go mostly overlooked. While Fargus sits the bench, expect Bush to get a nice share of the carries with McFadden.

3. Darren Sproles - San Diego Chargers - Running Back

Sproles is doing what Michael Turner did last season; carrying the ball behind LaDainian Tomlinson and doing a darn good job. He’s averaging 2.2 yards per carry more than Tomlinson and last week he showed off his skills as a receiver, scampering for a 66 yard touchdown reception. Sproles has roughly the same value as Turner has had in years past.

2. Eddie Royal - Denver Broncos - Wide Receiver

Royal was outstanding week one while Brandon Marshall sat out with a suspension. He didn’t see as many throws his way in week two (few teammates did: Marshall caught 18 passes), but it’s obvious that Cutler likes to throw to his young receiver. Royal caught a touchdown pass that brought the Broncos to within one point, and he caught the Broncos two-point conversion pass to put the team ahead. Both of those were critical catches in clutch moments. Expect Cutler to continue scanning the field for the speedy wide receiver.

1. John Carlson - Seattle Seahawks - TE

The Seahawks have been losing lately, so maybe you’ve been shying away from them for your fantasy team, especially while Hasselbeck struggles so mightily. But John Carlson has looked good each of the past two weeks. He caught 4 passes week one and another 6 last week, and he has 110 yards on the season, averaging 13.0 yards per catch.

LaDainian Tomlinson - The Pros

Tomlinson has been one of the most consistent fantasy football picks the game has come across in some time. He blends rushing and receiving to the point that he can make a case that he’s the league’s best player. He’s been the Chargers’ leading rusher for the past seven seasons (since he was drafted as a rookie, actually) and he’s finished lower than 2nd (twice he was 1st) on the team in receptions just once in the past seven seasons. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter what your league scoring is: Tomlinson has been the best fantasy player in the NFL for a very long time now.

Also consider: he’s led the league in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns each of the past two seasons and he’s finished the season with at least 1,750 yards from scrimmage six consecutive years, now. And did I forget to mention that he’s also thrown six touchdown passes in the past three seasons? His career passer rating is a sparkling 154.4 (league max: 158.3). Oh, and he set a scoring record in 2006 when he found the endzone 31 times.

Yeah, he’s a safe pick.

LaDainian Tomlinson - The Cons

Yes, there are a few cons to consider. First, let’s remember that Tomlinson has been the heart and soul of the Chargers’ offense for arguably seven years, and he’s missed just one start. That means he’s taken his shots and kept playing at a position where he’s taking a hit on almost every play, usually from more than a few players when he’s carrying the ball. And he’s handled at least 313 carries every season of his career (2365 career carries - 3rd among active players), meaning he may be headed for a breakdown.

Yes, it’s cliche to be concerned that a player may be headed for a breakdown every time they handle a lot of carries, but remember, Tomlinson has also caught his fair share of passes. Think about this: he’s had at least 375 touches every season of his career and at least 400 in 5 of his seven pro seasons. Plus, at age 29, Tomlinson (if he’s like most backs) has already peaked and should be seeing a drop in his numbers.

Let’s Review …

The Pros

• Consistency, baby. No one’s been more consistent.
• Versatility. Tomlinson does it all - he runs the ball, catches the ball, and, you guessed it, throws the ball. And he does all three better than just about anyone else in football.
• He’s always a league leader. And he’s been the best in the NFL each of the past two seasons.

The Cons

• He may be on track for a breakdown. No one handles the ball as much as Tomlinson does on a yearly basis and stays healthy for an entire career.
• He may have peaked. The prime age for most running backs is around 26-27, so Tomlinson may soon be seeing a significant drop in production.

Adrian Peterson - The Pros

Peterson may have played just one season, but, boy, was it special. 2007’s NFL Rookie of the Year finished second in the league in rushing (behind LT), despite carrying the ball just 238 times. But though his totals might not show him being a league leader, no one averaged more yards per game than did Peterson who ran for about 95.8 per week.

This season the Vikings are better. Tarvaris Jackson has a season’s worth of experience under his belt, and he’s been dealt a new receiver to work with: Bernard Berrian, the best receiver Minnesota has seen since Randy Moss was catching passes from Daunte Culpepper. And as for that offensive line - it’s one of the best in the NFL.

And let’s not forget this detail: he started just nine games last year. Imagine if Peterson had carried 300 times last season, keeping his incredible 5.6 yard per carry average; he’d have led the NFL with nearly 1,700 yards rushing. Now imagine if he had carried the same number of times as league leader Clinton Portis (who handled 325); his yardage would have hit well over 1,800.

Peterson carried the ball 20+ times in only six games last season (much to the dissatisfaction of fans), and in two of those games he broke 200 yards on the ground. Imagine what will happen this season when coach Brad Childress cuts him loose for an entire season.

Defenses should already be afraid.

Adrian Peterson - The Cons

One season. That’s all we’ve seen from Peterson, meaning there’s no guarantee he repeats. And though I mentioned earlier that the Vikings improved their passing game, it bears mentioning that I have little faith in that facet of the offense. This is not a team that will burn defenses through the air; this is a team that will be forced to pound it out on the ground.

And as for Peterson’s numbers last year; on the season, they were brilliant. Game-by-game? Not so much. Peterson may have had six 100-yard performances, but it should be noted that more than 38 percent of his yards for the season came in two weeks. And his yard per carry average dipped below 4.0 in six games, bottoming out when he carried the ball 14 times for 3 yards (0.2 yard per carry average) in week 11. In fact, in his final four games of the season (weeks 11-14) he carried the ball 54 times for 154 yards and just two touchdowns; that’s less than three yards per carry.

Lastly, let’s not forget that Peterson had just 19 receptions last season, scoring just once when he caught a pass. He doesn’t have the versatility one might want from a fantasy back; especially if you’re in a PPR league.

Let’s Review …

The Pros

• He was Rookie of the Year for a reason. He posted fantastic numbers, despite just nine starts.
• His supporting cast is improving. The Vikings added Bernard Berrian and Jackson will likely be better this season.
• The Vikings have a phenomenal offensive line. Matt Birk, Steve Hutchinson, and Bryant McKinnie are among the best at their respective positions.
  

The Cons

• He’s played just one season. Translation: we don’t know if he’s a one hit wonder or if he’s poised to be a consistent player. Speaking of which …
• He had some bad games. We’ll forgive him, but his inconsistency - especially near the end of the season - make me wonder if he’s worth the top pick in a fantasy draft.
• He wasn’t a factor in the passing game. He caught just 19 passes during the course of the season, so you may want to knock his value down a bit if you’re in a PPR league.

The Ultimate Verdict: If you’re looking for Mr. Consistency - someone I can promise will have a great season - go with LaDainian Tomlinson. He’s been the league’s best for a long time now, and you can’t go wrong. But if you want to shake things up and take a shot, pick Peterson. He won’t have a bad season and his upside is scary good.

My Pick: I’m a consistency guy, myself, so I’ll take Tomlinson. He’s the sure thing, someone who’s a lock to finish in the top three in fantasy scoring. But I’ll be watching out for the owner in my league who drafts Peterson number two. And if I was picking two and Peterson fell to me? I’d be psyched.

First of all, is Adrian Peterson the real deal?

He sure is. Peterson’s blend of size and speed make him one of the most dynamic runners in the NFL. He has the potential to break 2,000 yards and has set it as a goal for himself. Will he average 5.6 yards per carry again? Maybe, maybe not. But he will carry this team as far as they go, and I’m projecting him to finish with at least 1,500 rushing yards, 200 receiving yards, and 15 touchdowns.

What’s to make of the passing game? And, more specifically, what can we expect from Tarvaris Jackson?

He’s a young quarterback with limited potential playing in an offense that will run the ball 60% of the time. In short, he’s not a fantasy starter and he’s a bit of a stretch as a QB2. Luckily, the Vikings added Bernard Berrian to his repertoire, increasing his projections to a degree. The Vikings are going to have an adequate-at-best passing game, but the success of Jackson and Co. depends very much on Adrian Peterson. If AD has a great season, the Vikings passing game will benefit. But if he’s under-utilized, injured, or just plain ineffective, this team will struggle mightily on offense.

Bernard Berrian - what does he bring to the table?

Berrian can stretch the field and is the first Vikings receiver since Randy Moss to have that kind of potential. Of course, most who remember his days with the Bears can recall that he lacked consistency. There were times when he flat out dropped passes he should have caught - and there were times when he made spectacular catches. Still, he’s a massive upgrade at the wide receiver position in Minnesota, and he should be drafted as a solid lower-end WR2 or very good WR3. I’m projecting for at least 70 receptions, 1,000 yards, and 6 touchdowns.

Are the Vikings the favorites in the NFC North?

At this point it’s difficult to say. If Brett Favre returns to Green Bay, one has to think the Packers are the favorites. But if Tarvaris Jackson has a good season for the Vikings, Minnesota could win the division. At this point, I’d give the Packers a slight (very slight) edge over the Vikings because I have more faith in Green Bay’s passing game than Minnesota’s, but this is definitely a case in which it’s too close to accurately call.

Is Larry Johnson finished as an elite fantasy back?

Johnson, in my opinion, is a very talented back who was - at least to some extent - the product of a system that had one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. When the seams of that started to come apart last season he struggled. Now, having said that, I should also point out that Johnson did begin to catch his stride in the several games before his season-ending injury. In weeks 4, 6, and 7 he broke 100 yards rushing with a respectable 4.4 ypc average, and he scored his only touchdowns of the season in weeks 6, 7, and 9. I think he’ll have a better year this season. I don’t expect him to produce like a top five fantasy running back this season, but I do expect him to play the entire season like he began in 6 last year. Project for at least 1,300 rushing yards, 350 receiving yards, and 12 touchdowns and draft him in the mid-late first round.

What’s going on with the Chiefs quarterback situation - is Croyle really the guy?

Evidently, yes. The latest word is that the Chiefs may consider shopping Damon Huard because Tyler Thigpen - yes, Tyler Thigpen - may have earned the number two spot. I must admit that I was a little surprised when the Chiefs didn’t draft a quarterback high, but the team apparently has faith in Croyle, who was pretty mediocre last season, completing 56.7 percent of his passes and throwing 6 touchdowns-interceptions. Still, Chiefs o-coordinator Chan Gailey believes Croyle can be a franchise quarterback (”there’s no question” he can). Personally, I don’t think he has that kind of potential, but I’ll be interested to see how he responds to the change in coordinators.

Alright, so is Dwayne Bowe a good fantasy pick?

Bowe, who emerged as a rookie last season to be the Chiefs go-to wide receiver, is definitely a good fantasy pick. I do question how many touchdowns he’ll score and how the passing game will change with Croyle as the primary passer, but Bowe remains a good WR2. He might break 80 receptions, and I definitely expect at least 1,100 yards this year with 8 touchdowns.

Is Tony Gonzalez still a fantasy stud at tight end?

Absolutely. Gonzo, who had one of the best seasons of his career last year, continues to amaze me. I don’t know if he’ll repeat those numbers (99 receptions, 1,172 yards, and 5 touchdowns) but I do know that Croyle is going to be looking his way a lot. Even at age 32, I think that Gonzalez is a top three tight end (maybe four if you value Winslow a little higher) who should have another great season with at least 80 receptions, 1,000 yards, and five touchdowns.

Where will the Chiefs finish in the West?

Third, behind San Diego and Denver with a 7-9 record. Kansas City has potential, no doubt about it, but I don’t think they’ll reach it this season. Croyle lacks experience and I’m not sold on the offensive line.

That’s not to say he won’t have first round draft pick potential, but every fantasy football magazine you read is going to tell you Clinton Portis is a high second round pick. And I’m going to second that motion.

First, let’s look at a couple of his more obvious flaws: his yard per carry average has fallen the past three seasons (from 4.3 to 4.1 to 3.9) and his yard per game average has been inconsistent at best (94.8 to 65.4 to 78.9).

On the other hand, Portis has scored 11 touchdowns in two of the past three seasons (because, as noted earlier, he was injured in 2006) and his receptions/receiving yards are climbing (last season he peaked at 47 receptions for 389 yards). And Portis has rushed for at least 1,262 yards every healthy season of his career.

Here’s the problem: he’s inconstent. Portis was held scoreless in seven games last season, and he failed to carry for more than 50 yards in five. In fact, if you remove his four 100-yard games from consideration, Portis averaged about 58.25 yards per game.

That’s why he’s a second round pick.

There were games when Portis was great last season but there were others when he wasn’t. For example, he scored 15 or more fantasy points in 8 games, but he was also held to under 10 points in 4 games. Portis is a decent RB1 and a great RB2, simply because the Redskins love to give him the ball (he’s averaged 340 carries in 3 of the past 4 seasons and 39 receptions those years), and he’s a very good NFL running back.

It’s good to look at touchdowns scored and other superficial statistics, but to get the real story, one needs to dig a little deeper. You don’t necessarily need a spreadsheet or a calculator, just something to record your findings (and those tools certainly do make matters easier). The most important thing to bring to the table is a curious mind that doesn’t mind getting analytical.

These are some of the numbers I find most useful when applied to running backs:

1. Yard Per Carry (YPC) Average - It’s nice to know that a running back ran for 1,000 yards in a given season, but it’s more important to look at how effective he was. There’s a vast difference between a ball carrier who gains 1,200 yards on a 3.5 yard per carry average and a runner who picks up 1,200 yards on a 4.5 yard per carry average. Even though your calculations might reveal the same number of fantasy points, I’d rather have the second runner because history shows that he has a better opportunity to repeat his numbers or improve upon them.
2. Number of Games with at Least 70 Rushing Yards - Why not 100 yards? The difference is 3 points in most scoring systems, and you’re bound to find more consistency with 70 yards. If you’re looking for a player who had a bunch of big games, by all means use 100 yards. But if you’re looking for a player who was a consistent scorer - someone who you don’t have to worry about starting week in and out - then use 70 yards.
3. Number of Games with at Least One Touchdown - Two players look similar on paper; both scored 12 touchdowns. The difference? Player A had at least one score in 9 games (and had a few 2 touchdown games) while Player B scored all of his touchdowns in just 6 games. B might have made you a happy owner those weeks, but the rest of the season he probably left you frustrated as he was kept out of the endzone.
   
4. Number of Games with at Least 18 Carries (and the Average Yards Gained in Those Games) - Here’s what you’ll learn: how much the offense is using him and how effective he is when they do. Some running backs have a great yard per carry average but are not great draft picks because their teams don’t give them enough touches.
5. Number of Games with at Least 100 Yards from Scrimmage - This is a really cool stat because it doesn’t matter if they scored a touchdown in those games; if a player breaks 100 yards from scrimmage (rushing yards + receiving yards) he’s scoring 10 points. Any touchdowns are just gravy.
6. Number of Games with at Least 10 Fantasy Points Scored - Here’s something to keep in mind: if a running back scored 10 fantasy points in 13 games last season, he should be a starter on your fantasy team.

Do I expect anyone to look at all these statistics for every running back in the draft? No, of course not. But when you’re stuck between two players with similar projections and 3-year averages, it’s nice to have some numbers to separate them.

Lastly, what’s do all these statistics have in common? Consistency because that’s what wins championships.