What you’ll need: projections (preferably your own); a calculator or spreadsheet to figure out some averages (very little math is involved, I promise); knowledge and experience that comes with being a fan

It’s not a science. Let me make that clear: tiering is less about the numbers and more about the gut feelings you have about certain players. You’ll have to have a developed knowledge of the game that can only come from watching seasons of play and paying close attention (or researching) the game during the offseason.

It’s about grouping by risk/reward. This is the most basic way to look at it. Ultimately, what you’re doing is taking a bunch of projections and then re-ranking them based on how risky each pick is. Somone like Peyton Manning is a top-tier player because he’ll be a top five performer (high reward) and he’s never missed a start (low risk). Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, might be a fourth tier player because he plays in a solid offense with lots of weapons (high reward) but he’s injury-prone and we don’t know a lot about him (high risk).

There’s a generic way to look at this.

• Tier one players had a great season last year and are almost a lock to repeat. No one is going to question you when you draft one of them because everyone wants one. Keep it down to around three tier one players.
• Tier two players had a great season last year but might not repeat. Still, even if they aren’t as good as last year, you expect - worst case scenario - they will still be solid. Most positions will have between 5-10 players in this tier, based on how many you start each week.
• Tier three players didn’t have a great season last year but were solid nonetheless. In fact, they’ve always been solid and will probably be solid again this year. And you figure, hey, maybe if things go well, this will be the year they breakout season. The other type of player who fits this mold: the guy who has tremendous upside to the point that you will ignore the risk of drafting him.
• Tier four players are either those in their declining years or those who are high risk/reward (think about the Aaron Rodgers example).

Now that you’ve done this and tiered all your players, you’ll want to arrange your rankings and make them easier to interpret. The best way to do this: average what you’ve projected for all the players in the given tier and assign number to the tier. Doing this will allow you to quickly compare positions.

For example, your picks rolls around and you want to choose between a quarterback and a wide receiver. You look at your board and see there’s one second tier wide receiver left and five second tier quarterbacks. Noting this, you can see that you can draft that wide receiver here and probably get a good quarterback with your next pick.

Remember, this is just a guide. Tiering isn’t complicated, but, like I stated before, it’s more art than science, so you’ll need to get used to it. The best way? Try putting together your own tiers and then consult with a draft guide to see how they compare. Then put yourself in the shoes of the editor and think about why he or she classified a player in a different tier. Doing this is very educational and it will automatically make you more familiar with the players while giving you a valuable draft tool.

Happy tiering! 

What the heck happened last year?

That’s hard to say. The Broncos looked promising the year before and I don’t think anyone figured this was a team that would take two steps back a season later. In fact, this was a team that was much worse than its 7-9 record showed. The Broncos won by three points only 3 times during the course of the season and could have easily lost 3 or 4 more games. (There are Oakland Raiders fans who don’t think the Broncos played fair at the end of the game, week two.)

Here was the biggest problem: scoring. Sounds obvious, I know, but here was the biggest issue: Denver could move the ball down field without much trouble, but the offense just couldn’t get across the goal line. For the first time since 1992 (and the second time since 1983), Denver ranked in the 20s (21, actually) in scoring offense. And the defense’s rank in terms of scoring was the worst in franchise history.

What can we fans expect this year?

Improvement. The Broncos were uncharacteristically bad last season, due in no small part to the slew of distractions thrown at the team. Suspensions, appeals, injuries, and even deaths kept the team’s focus off football. And that was understandable. The Broncos offseason was marred with tragedy and the regular season was filled with dirty laundry (mostly Travis Henry’s).

Henry is gone. Javon Walker (who was injured and was described by teammates as being out of character last season) is gone. The team is more experienced and better equipped to deal with distractions this time around. And remember, this is a Broncos team coached by Mike Shanahan: it will not underachieve two seasons in a row.

How good will Cutler be?

Franchise quarterback Jay Cutler has all the tools he needs to succeed in this offense, and he showed a lot of promise last season. He was effective in the pocket and out of the pocket. He was able to evade the rush and his patience improved during the course of the year.

His rapport with receiver Brandon Marshall is very exciting and I look forward to Cutler playing more consistent football this year. Project for at least 3,600 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, and draft him as a lower-end QB1.

How does Brandon Marshall compare to his peers?

Considering it was just his second season and that he was forced to play a big role in Denver’s offense last season, the fact that Marshall was a top 10 fantasy receiver is impressive. And with Javon Walker gone for good, he’ll remain a key component of this offense. As mentioned earlier, Cutler has good chemistry with the young receiver and I expect Marshall will post numbers similar to last season (with more touchdowns). Project for at least 90 receptions, 1,250 yards, and 9 touchdowns and draft him as a WR1.

Is Selvin Young the next 1,000 yard Denver running back?

Yes. In fact, Young has projected a 2,000 yard year for himself. And though I’m not so sure he’ll be able to pull that one off, I must admit that Young showed a lot of promise last season, and he looks like a prototypical Denver back. I expect him to build off of last season’s success and finish as a top 10 fantasy running back. Project for Young to take over as the team’s full time back: at least 300 carries for 1,300 rushing yards and 10 combined touchdowns. Also, expect him to play a nice role in the passing game, grabbing at least 40 receptions for 300 yards.

How will the Broncos finish this year?

Most of the AFC West is rebuilding and the Broncos main hurdle will be getting past San Diego. I don’t expect the franchise to do so this year, but I still anticipate a solid 10-6 season.

Here’s the deal: most fantasy football guides are released in early-mid June and are published before that. That’s before preseason and training camp, leaving some guides with the expectation (and adjusted projection) that Travis Henry is the Broncos starting running back. But here’s the worst part: these guides are just what I called them. Guides. References. Something to base your draft on, not to take for gospel and follow to a tee.

In a fantasy football draft, there’s much more involved than studying “cheatsheets,” organized rankings of players. Even if you do manage to find an updated list online somewhere before your draft, you’re still left with someone else’s opinion.

Here’s the truth: the vast majority of fantasy projections are wrong. Injuries (not only to the player in question, but also his teammates), rough patches, and other issues arise that affect the outcome of a season. And since most people project player performance over a 16-game season, that brings up another issue: fantasy football seasons are not played over a 16 game season, at least not most. The most important weeks of the season are through week 13, typically the final game of a fantasy football season before the playoffs and championship. What happens if a player gets hot and piles up huge numbers in the final few weeks to live up to his projections after having an otherwise up-and-down season? Or what happens if a player finishes as the 10th overall fantasy football quarterback during the season, but half the weeks he wasn’t even top 20 because he was inconsistent?

These are real examples of what goes on during a normal season. Fantasy football drafts require real knowledge of football, meaning someone not familiar with the sport itself (and its history) cannot be successful just because he or she picked up ESPN’s annual draft guide. There’s a lot of gut feeling in fantasy football. There are decisions that need to be made, like picking a more consistent running back (someone who has finished in the top 10 the past four seasons) over a second year runner who showed a ton of promise last season.

Here’s one of the most important tips I can offer: use projections and rankings (preferably your own, if you have the time) as a guide during your draft, but feel free to stray and deviate from taking the highest ranked player on your draft sheet if you feel another player is a safer bet.

How much will the Packers be affected by the retirement of Brett Favre?

That’s tough to say, but here’s the good news: it wasn’t abrupt and the Packers have been working for years now to ensure that his retirement wouldn’t destroy the franchise. In fact, Mike McCarthy has been quoted as saying this year’s team is better than last year’s. And that may be true, but the Packers are going to be a different team without Favre. They’re going to run more, avoid taking risks, and essentially be a conservative (and consistent) offense, not that there’s anything wrong with that.

Is Aaron Rodgers ready to step in and fill Favre’s shoes?

I don’t think anyone is expecting Rodgers to be the next Brett Favre. Most fans recognize that this will be his first full season of play and he hasn’t exactly had a lot of on-field time. Favre didn’t miss a start since 1992 and the Packers rarely took him out of games, meaning Rodgers has been left with precious few opportunities to work on his game. That said, he looked good and well-adjusted in preseason last year and against the Cowboys; he didn’t have happy feet and he looked comfortable in the pocket.

What are his projections?

Expect Rodgers to throw for 3,100 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions if he stays healthy for 16 games and draft him as a backup. But remember, his past two seasons have been ended by injuries, despite having thrown just 59 career passes, so adjust his ranking accordingly.

Is Ryan Grant going to continue what he started?

Grant was simply brilliant last season and I fully expect him to have another good season. I’m not sure he’ll produce like he did, but he’ll have a good season nonetheless. The Packers have a good offensive line and will be running the ball more frequently than they did last season. Expect Grant to rush for 1,250 yards, 12 touchdowns, and catch 45 passes for 200 yards. Draft him late in the first round.

What about the Packers receivers?

Green Bay has one of the strongest receiving corps in the NFL, and Mike McCarthy has been brilliant in taking advantage of them. Greg Jennings is the speedy playmaker and solid WR2; Donald Driver is the veteran with the best hands and is a good WR3; both James Jones and rookie Jordy Nelson are wild cards who could have decent seasons and one will end up a good fantasy backup, perhaps both. Green Bay will run a lot of 4 wide receiver sets this season to spread out defenses, so both could have good years.

Anyone else I should know about?

Absolutely: Donald Lee. Lee was a big surprise last season and he’s poised to have anther good season as the Packers tight end. Project for 50 receptions, 650 receiving yards, and 6 touchdowns, and draft him as a starter.

What are your projections for the Packers?

I expect Green Bay to have a good season again, finishing 10-6 and in the postseason. I never know what’s going on in Ted Thompson’s head, but he’s proving himself to be one of the best GM’s in pro football. And Mike McCarthy was, in my opinion, the best coach in the NFL last season.

Trade for this position: Quarterback

Why? The one position in football that any fan knows above the others is quarterback. Everyone knows the top quarterbacks and they are usually the easiest to project because of consistency, plus, most leagues only draft two. Yes, there are times when you will get lucky and find a breakout QB on the waiver wire but it’s rare. Instead, work on getting value out of trades with other owners.

Watch the waiver wire every week for this position: Running Back

Why? Yes, your fantasy draft will scoop up a ton of running backs, but there will almost always be someone on the waiver wire who will improve your team, even by a fraction of a percent. But it’s by those fractions that fantasy teams improve. And even after your draft, there’s a good chance an injury (or even a benching) will wind up producing a running back who will start on your team for any number of weeks, perhaps, if you’re lucky, the entire season!

Keep an eye on this position: Wide Receiver

Why? Wide receivers produce in the right situation and because there are so many, you can probably find a diamond in the rough. Just keep an eye on developing situations, such as when a young quarterback starts to favor a rookie receiver over a veteran because they have a chemistry and have worked on it even after the coaches said practice was over. Also, watch teams to see if the running game is struggling. Through the first half of last season, Green Bay’s running game couldn’t produce, so Mike McCarthy decided to throw the ball more. Ultimately, the Packers had the NFL’s most effective passing game for the first half of the season.

You can probably forget about these positions: TE and K

Why? Unless your starter is injured, the odds of you finding a big producer at either of these positions is slim to none. Consider: only the top three tight ends of any season are going to be solid all season long; and since at least 12 will come off the draft board in most leagues, you probably won’t find anyone on the waiver wire. As for kicker, the difference between the top kicker and the 12th best kicker is negligible. And since kickers are darn near impossible to project, your best off sticking with the guy you drafted unless he (or his team) is really struggling.

Here's a cool resource to have. Whenever you hear about draft day trades it's natural to wonder who came out on top. More often than not, it's tough to say until three years after the draft, when the players have matured into their NFL positional roles, but for general managers who need to know before the draft, there's a chart used to determine the relative value of each and every pick. It’s based in part on history, part on contract values of players selected in certain rounds.

That chart is below. 

Also, an interesting idea is a similar chart for fantasy football drafts.  

The Gold Standard

Yards: The 25-10-10 Model

Touchdowns: The 4-6 Style

Optionals: Interceptions Penalties, Fumbles Penalties

The Other Standard

Yards: The 25-10-10 Model

Touchdowns: The Sixes Style

Optionals: Interceptions Penalties, Fumbles Penalties

The “Quarterbacks are More Important” Standard

Yards: The 25-10-10 Model

Touchdowns: The Sixes Style

Optionals: None

The “Touchdowns Are What It’s All About” Standard

Yards: The 50-20-20 Model

Touchdowns: The 6-6 Style

Optionals: Interceptions Penalties, Fumbles Penalties

The ” I’m Serious, Touchdowns Are What It’s All About” Standard

Yards: None

Touchdowns: The 6-6 Style

Optionals: Interceptions Penalties, Fumbles Penalties

YARDS

The 25*-10-10 Model

This is the ultimate standard in fantasy football scoring which works to keep quarterbacks and running backs on a level playing field. Quarterbacks score one point for every 25 passing yards while any other yardage gained from scrimmage is awarded one point per 10 yards. Because quarterbacks regularly throw for 3000 or more yards and the typical running backs average perhaps 1000-1200 yards, this system evens the playing field. For example, a quarterback who passes for 3000 yards scores the same number of points as a running back who rushes for 1200 yards.

*It’s also common to see quarterbacks score one point per 20 yards, but that gives quarterbacks a strong advantage.

The 50-20-20 Model

This system is similar to the last model because it keeps the playing field even. But this system also ensures that touchdowns are very important because yards are worth so much less. Be sure to draft players who project a lot of scores over those who put up a lot of yards.

A 4000 yard season for a quarterback in this system is worth just 80 points (or about 20 passing touchdowns in the “4-6 style” below). A 2000 yard season for a running back is worth only 100 points, or a little less than 17 touchdowns. High scoring players are very valuable in this type of league.

TOUCHDOWNS

The 4-6 Style

This system operates in a way that awards both quarterbacks and running backs on a more level plane in terms of touchdowns, but ends up making running backs much more valuabe. Because the typical quarterback will throw 20-25 touchdowns in a season and an average running back will score just 10 times (on a good year), the two are awarded 4 points and 6 points, respectively. Also, touchdown receptions (or any other score) are awarded 6 points.

In this system, interceptions often penalize quarterbacks by 2 points and fumbles lost are a penalty of either 1 or 2 points.

The 3-6 Style

This is very similar to the last style, but it favors wide receivers and running backs heavily, so consider that. A 15 touchdown season for a running back is worth 90 points in this system, the same as a 30 touchdown season for a quarterback. In short: draft running backs very high unless you can land top-tier quarterback Peyton Manning in the middle of the first round.

Do not draft any other quarterback until the second round.

In this system, interceptions often penalize quarterbacks by 1 point and fumbles lost are a penalty of either 1 or 2 points.

The Sixes Style

Unlike the previous styles, the “sixes style” awards 6 points for any touchdown scored, passing or otherwise. Pretty self-explanatory. If you happen to be in a league like this, draft quarterbacks higher than you usually would. Look at Tom Brady in 2007: he would have scored 300 points on touchdowns alone. But it doesn’t necessarily take a Hall of Fame year: a 30-touchdown season is still worth 180 points.

In this system, interceptions often penalize quarterbacks by 3 points and fumbles lost are a penalty of either 1 or 2 points.

OPTIONALS

Interception Penalties: These penalties are used only when fumble penalties are used. 1 point is the standard for the 3-6 style. 2 points is the standard for the 4-6 style. 3 points is the standard for the sixes style.

Fumble Penalties: These penalties are used only when interception penalties are used. Fumbles lost are penalized by either 1-2 points, at the discretion of the league commissioner.

Point-Per-Reception (PPR): This scoring is growing more common because it makes draft day much more interesting. Basically, it increases the value of receivers and skyrockets the value of running backs by awarding one point per reception for those positions. It forces owners to consider someone like Wes Welker (over 100 points in receptions last season) over a receiver who scores a lot, but doesn’t get a lot passes thrown his way.

And running backs should only be drafted higher while quarterbacks move down the draft board.

There is ultimately one rule for picking your league’s fantasy scoring: you should have a rough estimate of your team’s fantasy score when you look at the boxscore of the week’s games. If you can’t, your league is probably too complicated.

I may have left something off this list, but I’ve tried to make it as comprehensive as possible, giving a few tips for draft day here and there.