LenDale White, like all goal line backs, is in an odd position from a fantasy football perspective. He’s easy to love because his bulldozer mentality and extra bulk have led him to handling plenty of goal line carries and, more often than not, touchdowns. But because he is part of an ultra-successful running back by committee with rookie Chris Johnson, he doesn’t often get enough carries to score a substantial number of fantasy points in other categories.

One dimensional backs like White rarely earn a roster spot in fantasy football. Goal line backs are easy to get attached to because they frequent the endzone, but yards are as important and oftentimes more so. One touchdown is a quick 6 points, but not scoring is 0 points. In other words, goal line backs are typically all-or-nothing propositions.

Consider the example of teammates Chris Johnson (the “speed” back) and LenDale White (the “goal line” back). (Warning: the following arguments are laced with statistics; you are advised to read carefully.) The “speed” back handles more carries and averages more yards per touch because he handles the ball when the offense can afford diversify its play-calls. This leads to a much more impressive yard per carry average, and because the “speed” back also handles more carries, his overall rushing total is far superior. In the case of Johnson and White, the former carries more often by an approximate 4-3 ratio (183-127, through 11 games), yet the ratio between the two backs’ rushing yards is nearly 2-1, in favor of Johnson (833-469, through 11 games). Despite the fact that White’s rushing touchdown ratio is at an advantage greater than 2-1 (11-5), Johnson’s rushing yards alone make up the difference, assuming fantasy league scoring awards 1 point per 10 rushing yards and 6 points per touchdown. The two runners’ fantasy point totals in such a league would equate to 133.3 (Johnson) and 112.9 (White).

In addition to handling fewer carries during the course of a game, goal line backs are also at a disadvantage when the offense passes the ball. Ideally, on passing downs and other downs in which an offense has the option to either run or throw, it will put as much quickness and receiving ability on the field. In the case of Johnson and White, the disparity is particularly significant. Johnson has 33 receptions, 218 yards, and 1 receiving touchdown this season, while his teammate has just 4 receptions for 14 yards. If a hypothetical fantasy league awards 1 point per 10 yards receiving and 6 points per touchdown, those receiving totals equate to 27.8 additional fantasy points for Johnson and 1.4 points for White. Add the rushing and receiving totals together, and Johnson has 161.1 fantasy points and White has 114.3 fantasy points

In addition, I noted earlier (and highlighted) that goal line backs are oftentimes “all-or-nothing propositions.” By this I mean it’s great if a goal line back scores a lot of touchdowns over the course of a season, but fantasy owners live week-to-week. White has been an exception in the sense he scores most weeks (eight of eleven starts this season), but what about the games he doesn’t score? He doesn’t often rush for a significant number of yards (he’s been over 100 yards once; under 60 yards in nine games; and averages just 42.6 yards per game), nor does he play a role in the offense when Kerry Collins is throwing the ball. Consequently, not scoring a touchdown may mean the difference between 4 points and 10 points, based on his weekly average. To put it another way, if his yards live up to his season average but his touchdowns do not, his scoring is 60 percent lower than the average.

To clarify the above (with fewer numbers), consider: Chris Johnson, who splits a fair number of carries with White and doesn’t get as many goal line carries, has scored significantly more fantasy points over the course of the season and has been a safer week-to-week starter because it can be assumed he’ll get a decent number of touches (he averages 20 per week) and yards (about 95-96 per week) to lessen the effect of not scoring a touchdown in a given game.

Do not misinterpret, however. Touchdowns are an important aspect of fantasy football, and I am not trying to argue otherwise. What I am suggesting is that touchdowns are not the be all and end all of fantasy football. Consider the following analogy: it is wise to build a diverse stock portfolio to minimize risks; similarly, in fantasy football it’s wise to have players that get a score fantasy points in a variety of ways. Diversity, over the course of a season, always beats one-dimensionality.

It doesn’t get much worse than the Bengals. In fact, this franchise is probably the second worst in the NFL, behind only the laughable Rams in the NFC West. Still, when it comes to failing at football, the Bengals can hold their own. With Marvin Lewis on the hotseat, check out ten things the Bengals have done right and, more often, wrong.

1. Let’s just go ahead and point out right now that Cleveland lost to the Cleveland Browns. No offense was scoring less than the Browns before the two matched up; essentially, Cleveland, who entered the week averaging a tad under nine points per game and not yet having scored more than 10 in a single game, dropped 23 on the Bengals.

2. I think Carson Palmer is a good quarterback, but you can only blame the supporting cast so long before the finger pointing returns to the former USC star. Palmer has looked dreadful in the games he’s played this season, and he remains the only quarterback to have three times as many interceptions as touchdowns this year. Actually, I take that back. His backup, Ryan Fitzpatrick, has the same ratio after one start.

3. Palmer’s quarterback rating week one was the worst of any game in his career. Facing the daunting Baltimore defense, Palmer put together a game good enough to earn him a 32.3 passer rating. And though he nearly doubled his number of completions (he had just 16), Palmer still finished with more interceptions than he had the week before. And, in all truth, he was probably worse that second week, though his completion percentage jumped from 37.5 to 59.3. No quarterback should ever need to jump more than 20 points to reach a 60 percent completion rate.

4. So I suppose all those fantasy footballers out there are curious how the receivers are doing while Palmer and his injury replacement, Ryan Fitzpatrick, struggle. Surprisingly well, actually. Well, if you count T.J. Houshmandzadeh and no one else, that is. Hoosh has 24 catches for 266 yards and a touchdown this season, which basically puts him on pace for just under 100 catches and just over 1,000 yards. Chad Ocho Cinco? He has 11 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown. They remain the only two players on the team with a touchdown grab.

5. I imagine a running game would be a good thing for a team to have, especially when that team can’t count on its passing game. Unfortunately, that’s not something the Bengals have. Cincy ranks 26th in yards per carry average and 27th in carries per game. Put those two together and you get a running game that ranks 30th in rushing yards per game.

6. Anyone in particular struggling? Only the starter, Chris Perry, who replaced Rudi Johnson this season. Perry who has handed 72 of Cincinnati’s 95 rush attempts this season (Carson Palmer and Ryan Fitzpatrick have rushed 10 times, too) is averaging about 2.9 yards per attempt. He does have two touchdowns. Unfortunately, being the only runner to score means the offense is tied for second-worst in the NFL.

7. Teams that lose also tend to turn the ball over. Cincinnati is tied for 31st in the league with a turnover differential of -4 already. Interestingly, the Dallas Cowboys have the same differential. Of course, the Cowboys have still found a way to find three of their four games. Cincy’s still looking for the magic that that will get them their first.

8. But here’s the good news, Bengals fans: Marv Lewis is working his magic on defense and the defense ranks 4th in passing yards per game this season, a facet of the defense that has historically struggled. Of course, I should also mention that the team ranks 28th in rushing yards per game (they allow nearly 170 per game) and 17th in points per game allowed.

9. It’s just such a pity the defense has forced just one interception this season. That ties them with nine other teams in the NFL to rank 22nd. Perhaps the team’s greatest strength against the pass has been its ability to keep opponents from big plays. Only five times have other offenses completed gains for more than 20 yards and never has an offense thrown for more than 31 yards.

10. Sadly, the run defense can’t quite claim that. Twice already this season has a running back scampered downfield for more than 40 yards, tying them for last in the NFL. And five times opponents have pounded their way on the ground for six, ranking the team 22nd in that category. Also, no team has been run against more than the Bengals; opponents have carried 152 times in the past four games (38.0 per game - T2nd).

I know it’s early in the season and all, but I just thought it would be fun to pick between the two best and brightest young running backs in the NFL: Adrian Peterson or Darren McFadden. A friend asked me this question the other day, and the more I thought about it, the clearer it became. I’d want McFadden.

I remember college football analyst Kirk Herbstreit at the draft saying that the people impressed by Peterson last season will be blown away by McFadden, and the latter running back is beginning to make a believer out of me. He combines speed, power, and versatility in such a rare way he makes watching Raiders games fun. Really!

Now, the Raiders may be in the NFL’s basement right now, and after the firing of head coach Lane Kiffin, I see little reason to believe they’ll get back out. But Darren McFadden this season has been spectacular when he touches the football. He averages 5.3 yards per carry and has 272 yards through the first four games of the season, even though he handles less than half the workload. In fact, he’s handled more than 10 carries in a game only twice this season and at least 15 only once.

But let’s forget about the numbers for a moment. McFadden has plenty of time to wow NFL fans with those. What I love about McFadden is his versatility. And what I mean by that is, he has the ability to catch passes out of the backfield. That’s not something the Raiders have taken advantage of yet, but it’s definitely something to watch. And it’s also something Adrian Peterson just isn’t very good at. Peterson, who had 268 receiving yards last season, made some big plays when he caught the football (especially in the first three weeks of the season, when three receptions accounted for 99 of his season’s yards) but, at the same time, he just wasn’t utilized as a receiver. He’s not a route-runner and he doesn’t have great hands; he’s more of a screen back. This season he has nine catches (about half as many as last season) and is averaging a little under 6 yards per reception.

Peterson also struggles at blocking. He’s working at both these weaknesses, but, for now at least, he’s more of a pure running back. And as for his yards last season, nearly 30 percent of those came in 2 huge games. Take those games away, and he was relatively pedestrian the rest of the season, with 178 carries for 821 yards. And in the second half of the season his numbers were very poor, as he rushed for more than 100 yards just once after week nine and finished with 65 carries for 189 rushing yards (less than 3.0 yards per carry) in five of his final six starts because of injuries, another big reason I would rather have McFadden if I was starting a franchise.

Time will tell how consistent and durable McFadden is. He too started out hot this season but has cooled down considerably in the last two weeks. In fact, discounting his huge 164 yard performance, his numbers don’t look especially impressive. But having said that, I think that if the Raiders get him the touches he deserves - 15-20 per game, at least - he’s capable of a Peterson-like season. Plus, I think he should be more involved in the passing game. Scout.com said he was the best running back to come out of college in the past 20 years and that’s saying something. Right now he might be the best pure athlete in the NFL, and he combines explosiveness with power in a way that makes him almost incomparable.

So if I was an NFL owner starting a new franchise I would take McFadden over Peterson. Both are extraordinary athletes in a league full of them, but, to me, McFadden is the better all-around player and one of those rare talents that comes around every so many years. You just have to give him a shot.

If 2007 could be considered one of those seasons when quarterbacks experience huge amounts of success that seem to extrapolate from the general trend in the NFL, 2008 is beginning to look like a season in which running backs break from the norm.

Last season’s leading rusher, LaDainian Tomlinson, had 1,474 rushing yards; only six running backs carried the ball at least 300 times; and only six rushed for 10 or more touchdows.

Though we’re in the early part of this season, it’s becoming increasingly obvious that 2008’s rushers are going to break all three of those marks. Consider Michael Turner, who today rushed for three touchdowns. He already has five this season, with 59 carries and 366 rushing yards. That puts him on pace for 315 carries, 1,952 yards, and 27 rushing touchdowns. Even if his yard per carry average drops from its current stratospheric level (which it should) and scores just 10 touchdowns the rest of the season (certainly not unreasonable), he should still wind up breaking or tying each of Tomlinson’s 2007 marks.

And that’s just Michael Turner.

All around the NFL running backs are again becoming the focal points of offenses. Teams with inexperience or injuries at quarterback are turning to the running game to make things happen. And running backs, especially the youngest generation, are responding.

Consider Chicago’s rookie Matt Forte: he has over 300 rushing yards this season is on pace for close to 400 carries this season. He probably won’t hit that mark, but 340 isn’t out of the question. The Bears have given him 23, 23, and 27 carries in the first three weeks of this season, already.

Oakland’s backfield, meanwhile, is tearing through opponents. Darren McFadden already has 252 yards on 44 carries, while his teammates have combined for another 58 carries and 230 yards. Prior to this week’s slate of games, Oakland ranked second in the NFL in rushing offense.

Predictably, the Minnesota Vikings have also seen considerable success running the football. The team’s featured back - and last season’s rookie of the year - Adrian Peterson has 340 rushing yards this season, an average of 113 yards per game, and said in the offseason his goal is 2,000. To hit that mark, he’ll have to increase his average to at least 125 yards per game, or else continue with this pace and “settle” for just over 1,800.

Lest I forget about Willie Parker. As of this writing he has 243 rushing yards and, if he can gain another 132 today, he’ll be the league’s leading rusher - and on pace for 2,000 yards.

17 running backs last season rushed for at least 1,000 yards, and only 9 broke the 1,200 yard mark. To rush for 1,000 yards in a season, a back must average 62.5 yards per game; for 1,200, 75 yards per game. 14 running backs this season are averaging more than 75 yards per game.

But before I get too carried away, let me point out a few things. First, all of these numbers will probably even out by the end of the season. At the same time, I should also note that several backs who are a lock for 1,000 yards (barring injuries), such as LaDainian Tomlinson, Selvin Young, Ryan Grant, Joseph Addai, and Larry Johnson are all on pace for sub-1000 yard seasons.

The NFL’s transition in recent years, from a league in which leading backs were prized to a league in which a committee of “specialists” is the new norm, means that we’ll see fewer and fewer “elite” runners and 1,000 yard gainers. At the same time, 2008 is shaping up to be the season in which some of the league’s best and those who are guaranteed touches will raise the bar and our future expectations. The leauge’s crop of young backs, led by Adrian Peterson, Joseph Addai, and others who I’ve mentioned above is mirroring its crop of young quarterbacks in terms of talent. We’re about to witness some quality football over the next several years.

And it all starts this season, a year in which we may have trouble selecting between a pair of running backs (Forte or McFadden) for rookie of the year.

Right now it seems that the general consensus is that, if you have the number one pick in your fantasy draft, you should probably be taking either LaDainian Tomlinson or Adrian Peterson. But that got me thinking: what if, when it’s all said and done and the dust is cleared, the best fantasy player is neither of them?

Let’s look at the facts: in the past five seasons there have been five different number ones, players who finished with the most fantasy points (according to standard scoring rules, as defined by Pro Football Reference). Two quarterbacks have taken the honor (a surprise, considering quarterbacks are never drafted first overall), while running backs retained the title the other three seasons.

And leads me to wonder, if LT doesn’t put his name back on top of the list and if Adrian Peterson doesn’t lead the league this season (for whatever reason), who else could wind up the best? One name in particular sticks out to me: Brian Westbrook.

Why Westbrook?

He has a lot going for him. Playing for the Philadelphia Eagles might mean that he doesn’t get a ton of carries during the season (though he’s consistently carried more times in each of the past three seasons), but it does guarantee him a whole lot of receptions. Last season he peaked with 90, but the season before he still managed 77 in 14 starts. Better yet, he’s had at least 600 receiving yards every season since 2004 and in the past two seasons he’s broken 1,900 and 2,100 yards from scrimmage.

What does it all mean? Basically, this: he’s getting better every season. He’s averaged at least 4,8 yards per carry the past two seasons and he’s improved his total number of touchdowns every season since 2005. He’s a vital part of this offense and as Donovan McNabb grows older and continues to face the inevitability that he may never again have a Pro Bowl wide receiver like Terrell Owens, he goes to the closest thing left and the player he trusts most: Brian Westbrook.

I don’t think it’s hard to imagine Westbrook breaking 275 carries and 80 receptions again this season. And with that number of touches, it’s also not hard to imagine him again breaking the second millenium mark. Now, that just means he needs to improve his total number of touchdowns and get it to the upper teens, something that not only seems possible but also probable.

Plus, he’s one of the safest picks you can make. Last season there were two games when he failed to average at least 4.0 yards per carry and seven when he averaged at least 5.0. In 12 of his 15 games he managed at least 100 yards from scrimmage and in the three others he broke 90. And in eight games he had at least 140 yards, not to mention week 3 when he rushed for 110, received for 111 and scored 3 touchdowns (that’s at least 40 points in a standard scoring league).

Westbrook is someone who is getting a bit overlooked this season, with the emergence of Adrian Peterson last year and the average fan’s love of LT. But remember, Westbrook is a darn good fantasy pick - one of the best you can make - and someone who should definitely not be missed this season.

Purely as a sidenote, it’s worth mentioning that every leader broke at least one major NFL record in his respective season:

2003: Priest Holmes rushed for 27 touchdowns

2004: Peyton Manning passed for 49 touchdowns

2005: Shaun Alexander scored 28 touchdowns

2006: LaDainian Tomlinson scored 186 points

2007: Tom Brady passed for 50 touchdowns

Now, I don’t know if the leader is going to break another record this season (it seems pretty darn unlikely but, then again, doesn’t it always?), but it is interesting.

The New York Jets were a struggling franchise last season. The passing game was weak and the offense as a whole failed to find the endzone enough. As a result, the team finished with 4 wins and in third place in one of the weakest divisions in the NFL.

One of the players who disappointed a lot of fantasy football owners was Thomas Jones.

Looking Back 

Jones, who had carried for 1,210 yards the season before and had scored 23 touchdowns in the previous three seasons with the Chicago Bears, was expected to have a solid season in New York. After all, he was the clear-cut number one back and was a lock to handle 300+ carries.

Unfortunately, Jones was a bust. He got his 300 carries (310, actually) but didn’t get much mileage out of them, averaging just 3.6 yards per attempt and scoring just one rushing touchdown. Worse yet, he wasn’t much of a factor in the passing game. He nabbed 28 receptions (2nd on the team among running backs) and took them for just over 200 yards, scoring one more touchdown. There were nine weeks last season when he scored single digit fantasy points.

What Happened

The biggest issue last season was the problems the team had at quarterback. Both Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens started eight games last season, combining for 15 passing touchdowns and 19 interceptions. Pennington wasn’t awful, but he just wasn’t good enough. And Clemens, who lacked experience and moxy, looked lost at times in the pocket.

But to be fair, part of the issues at quarterback stemmed from the lack of protection. Pennington and Clemens were sacked a combined 53 times during the season, as the Jets offensive line began to resemble a block of crumbling Swiss cheese. And that also affected the rushing game, as Jones learned he’d need to create his own holes in the line because his teammates just weren’t getting it done up front.

Why Things Look Better

Two offseason additions shine above all others because the players are both perennial Pro Bowl talents. Alan Faneca and Brett Favre instantly make this offense twice what it was last season, perhaps even better than that. Faneca is one of the league’s best offensive guards, someone who was released because he was unhappy with the franchise, not because the franchise was unhappy with him. And Favre? We all know what happened this offseason with Favre, but it bears mentioning that he’s still a top five quarterback in this league. He’s walking into the perfect situation, where he’ll have a pair of talented wide receivers.

All of this bodes well for Thomas Jones, since the running game is going to be so much better this season, as will the offense as a whole. And that means two things: one, Jones’ yard per carry average is going to go up, perhaps to the 4.0 range. Two, he’s going to get more red zone attempts and, thus, more touchdowns.

The Bottom Line 

Jones is in a great scenario this season, and I think if all goes well, he’s capable of 1,225 rushing yards, 250 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns. Right now he’s being drafted as an RB3, but, in my opinion, he has RB2 potential.

There was a time when thinking about the Seattle Seahawks backfield meant one name came to mind: Shaun Alexander. Once known as “Alexander the Great” during his MVP run, Alexander struggled and battled injuries in 2006 and 2007, eventually draining the patience of his coaches and finding himself on the free agent market.

Now preseason is officially underway, meaning there are still a few training camp battles and position situations that need resolve. One of those situations is the Seattle Seahawks backfield, where two running backs are vying for the most touches on a game-by-game basis. Both Maurice “Mo” Morris - who has played for the Seahawks for the past five seasons - and Julius Jones - who was signed this offseason after a disappointing tenure in Dallas - are expected to split carries this season in an offense that loves to throw the football.

How Things Look at the Moment

First, let me throw some preseason numbers out there to present an idea of how things have been going.  Seattle played its first exhibition game against the Minnesota Vikings - a team with a vaunted run defense - August 8th and Maurice Morris got the start, bursting out of the gate and rushing for 62 yards on 6 carries, including a 20 yard run on the team’s opening series and a 21 yard run one possession later. Jones, who will get the start in the team’s second preseason game August 16th, handled just 4 carries and picked up 15 yards, thanks in no small part to a 12 yard burst in the second quarter. Jones and Morris combined for 2 receptions for 4 yards, which is hardly worth mentioning.

Preseason football is usually not worth mentioning, but this is definitely an interesting position battle. Honestly, though, I don’t know how much it will matter when this is resolved. Seattle is a pass-first offense and has been for the past several seasons because Alexander has struggled so mightily. The addition of Jones and emergence of Morris will likely help open up the offense, but neither back appears to be capable of being a true starter. It looks to me like a situation where no one will average more than 20 touches per game and 15 carries - think Marion Barber-Julius Jones, but with no obvious player scoring most of the team’s touchdowns.

Additional Notes

• If your fantasy draft is this week and you’re left to choose between Julius Jones and Maurice Morris, I’ll throw it out there that I give Jones the edge. I’m not a huge fan of either player, but I think Jones is the better back and he will eventually win out. And if you’re interested, ESPN’s Matthew Berry likes Maurice Morris while his podcast partner Nate Ravitz agrees with me.

• For those who wonder why I left out T.J. Duckett, let me add this little snippet: he might not make the team and, if he does, he’s not going to get goal line carries like one might think. Both Mo Morris and Julius Jones are more talented and will handle almost all the team’s rush attempts this season.

(After reading this, see my colleague’s argument for Adrian Peterson)

There is no question that if given the chance, I would take Ladainian Tomlinson over Adrian Peterson.  Why?  Because LT has history on his side.  But even if he didn’t, he has more opportunity to produce than Peterson does does.

Before getting into the differences, it is enlightening to examine the similarities.  First, both running backs are highly talented.  Both have the ability to not only run the ball, but are excellent pass catchers.  Second, they each have a top-rate offensive line behind which to run (no changes from last year’s starting lines).  Third, both teams have about the same strength of schedule when considering the rush defense of the teams they will face.  In fact, both will face the Colts, Panthers, Saints, Buccaneers, and Falcons.  Fourth, of their first five games, three are away.  Finally, they both have their bye week right in the middle of the season.  If you truly want to compare who is better, this is the season to do it.

Now for the differences all of which support my conclusion that LT should be taken over Peterson. 

- First, LT has a much better quarterback (you can easily compare their performance head-to-head using Sports Data Hub’s data analysis tool), which prevents the defense from focusing all of its energies on stopping the running game.

- Second, LT’s first five games are against weak rush defenses, allowing on average 137.5 rushing yards and one rushing TD per game.  Peterson’s first five games are against rush defenses allowing on average 103 rushing yards and ½ rushing TD per game.  Momentum is everything.  LT will be off to a great start and Peterson will be seen as struggling.

- This leads to the third difference: with Peterson struggling, the Vikings are more likely to give runs to Chester Taylor, a dependable backup who has scored 13 TDs and run over 2000 yards over the past two seasons.  LT’s backup Michael Turner scored 3 TDs and ran just over 800 yards during the past two seasons and is now in Atlanta. (You can see both running back’s performance over the past 3 years using Sports Data Hub’s data analysis tool).  I am sorry to say that Darren Sproles is no Michael Turner.  LT said just last week, “In my mind I’m going to have to feel like I have to stay in the game.”San Diego Union-Tribune, July 31, 2008.

- Fourth, this is LT’s second year under Head Coach Norv Turner and it took LT about 4 games last year to get acclimated.  This year everyone is on the same page.

- Finally, it is the final three games that count in fantasy, and while the difference is not as dramatic as the first five games, LT still has the edge with the last three facing rush defenses allowing on average 128 rushing yards and a rushing TD per game.  Peterson will face rush defenses allowing on average 113 rushing yards and a rushing TD per game.

While I do not believe AP will regress during his second year, it is not uncommon for a rookie running back to have a great first year and then fail miserably during his second (e.g Frank Gore, Cadillac Williams).  Even if I could foretell Peterson would continue to play like a star, looking at each player’s situation and the teams they will be playing against, I would still take LaDainian.

(If you are still not sure, take a look at my colleague’s argument for Adrian Peterson)

(After you read this, take a look at my colleague’s argument for LT and decide who you’ll draft number one.)

When it comes to making the first overall pick in fantasy football, one wants to walk away with the best available player. This season the talking heads are torn between LaDainian Tomlinson - aka Mr. Consistency - and Adrian Peterson, the rookie phenom who finished second in the NFL in rushing yards last season.

Now, I love LaDainian Tomlinson. I think he’s a great running back who will finish among the top three overall this season. But I must admit, if I have the number one pick in the draft, I’m taking Adrian Peterson.

Conventional wisdom might suggest I do otherwise. After all, this is only Peterson’s second season whereas Tomlinson has been among the best in the NFL for many seasons. Still, I believe that Peterson’s potential is greater than Tomlinson’s and the risk-reward ratio is too tempting to pass.

Here’s why.

The Minnesota Vikings have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, perhaps the best. I don’t think anyone will argue that. That’s one of the key reasons for Peterson’s success last season, and Chester Taylor’s success in the past two. Also, this offensive line will be able to protect quarterback Tarvaris Jackson, someone who is almost certain to be better than he was last year.

That brings me to my second point: a lot of critics are going to say that the Chargers have a much better passing game than the Vikings, and that’s true, but only to a certain extent. Minnesota’s passing game has struggled in the past several years for two reasons: bad quarterbacks and bad receivers.

That changes this year.

Minnesota’s Tarvaris Jackson will be playing in his second complete season, meaning he has more experience than he did last season. He should be more comfortable in the pocket, and the running game, led by Peterson, will force defenses to think run before pass. That should open things up in the passing game. And did I mention that the team acquired the talented Bernard Berrian this offseason? Berrian instantly adds two things this offense has lacked: a deep threat and someone who defensive secondaries will actually need to pay attention to.

And let’s be perfectly honest: San Diego doesn’t have a great passing game, either. Philip Rivers was one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks in the NFL last season, frustrating fantasy owners with multiple “off” weeks and annoying opposing fans with his taunts along the way.

My third point is this: Peterson was phenomenal last season. He managed to rush for 1,341 yards on just 238 carries, averaging almost a full yard per carry more than Tomlinson. And he injured his knee during the second half of the season, meaning that he could have accomplished much more if he had stayed healthy. Imagine if he does this season. Scary.

Finally, here’s why it’s a risk to draft Tomlinson. The San Diego Chargers running back has carried the ball at least 313 times every season of his career. This season the team will rely on him even more with the absence of Michael Turner. And that’s just the number of carries he’ll handle. Let’s not forget that Tomlinson plays a very key role in the Chargers passing game; he’s also had at least 50 receptions every season of his career. In fact last season was the first time in his career he’s handled fewer than 390 touches in any given season.

This scares me because it means he’s close to breaking down. I realize that Tomlinson is a tough running back, one of the toughest in the NFL. But he’s not invincible. He has over 2,900 career touches; only two other active backs - Edgerrin James (29) and Warrick Dunn (32) - have more. Tomlinson will be asked to handle close to 400 touches this season, too. Will he be able to handle it?

Now, I don’t think you can go wrong with either player this year. But if you’re asking me which player to take first, I’m going to tell you who I think is poised for the best season. And that player is Adrian Peterson.

(Think I’m right? You should take a look at my colleague’s argument for LT and decide for yourself who you’ll draft number one.)

The NFL season is now fast approaching, which means your fantasy football draft is probably right around the corner. To better prepare you for that, I’m releasing my fantasy football pre-draft rankings. Remember, these are to be used as a guide on draft day, so feel free to move players around and stray from the list when draft day actually arrives.

This is part six in a series devoted to running backs. Part one is here. Part two is here. Part three is here. Part four is here. Part five is here.

If you missed it, be sure to check out the series devoted to quarterbacks, too. Part one (1-5). Part two (6-10). Part three (11-15). Part four (16-20).

26. Julius Jones - After a disappointing career spent with the Dallas Cowboys, Julius Jones is a new face in a place that desperately needs a running game: Seattle. The Seahawks last season were abysmal when running the ball. Shaun Alexander hadn’t been himself since his MVP season three years ago, and last season he barely broke 800 yards from scrimmage and scored just 5 touchdowns. Jones - along with T.J. Duckett and the increased role of Maurice Morris - completely changes the face of the Seattle rushing attack. The team will now use a running back by committee approach, splitting carries between Jones and Morris. Jones led the Cowboys in rushing from 2004-2006, peaking at 1,084 yards in ‘06. But I can see him putting up some very impressive numbers in Seattle, where he’ll be supported by a solid passing attack - something he should contribute to more than he has in the past. Jones is a solid RB3 and a very good sleeper pick.

27. Thomas Jones - After Chicago dropped Thomas Jones, things hit the fan. The Bears running game was ineffective, and Jones wound up being a disappointment in New York. He broke 1,100 yards rushing but scored just two touchdowns, and his yard per carry average plummeted from 4.1 to 3.6. The good news is this: he’s still the lead back in New York, which means he’ll get plenty of carries. If the Jets offensive line can open up some more running lanes for him and he can get his yard per carry average back up to the 4.0 range, I think he’ll be a pretty good pick, especially as an RB3.

28. Fred Taylor - In 2007, Freddy Taylor had his best season in years at the age of 31. This season, don’t expect more of the same. He’s defying the rule that running backs regress at after age 30, but that can’t hold up forever. Plus, it hurts that he doesn’t get goal line carries or receptions because Maurice Jones-Drew handles those touches. He’s a great story and a solid RB3 who will get 215-230 carries this season and put up some nice numbers. Just don’t count on his yard per carry average improving this season, as it has in the past three (from 4.1 to 5.0 to 5.4 last season), or him to score more than five touchdowns.

29. Matt Forte - In my opinion, Matt Forte is one of the more underrated fantasy backs you’ll find this late in the draft. He’s walking into a situation where he’s going to get the bulk of the carries (Kevin Jones may miss the first six weeks of the season), and he’s playing in a run-first offense. That means 275-300 carries as a rookie, which translates to a 1,000+ yard season. Plus, he’s going to handle the goal line duties, which means touchdowns. For Chicago can get its offense back on track, it’s going to count on the running game and Matt Forte. Still, it will help if Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton can get the passing game going, or else Forte and the rest of the backfield will face a significant number of eight-man fronts this season.

30. Jonathan Stewart - The Carolina Panthers running game hasn’t been great in the past. DeShaun Foster has led the team since 2005, but in his absence the duties will be turned over to Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. The latter, who averaged 5.0 yards per carry last season and rushed for 717 yards, is expected to retain the title of starter during the season - an act of loyalty to the veteran, on behalf of John Fox - while Stewart handles the bulk of the carries. If the Panthers offense has a passing game this season, which it should if Jake Delhomme can stay healthy, Stewart is poised for a very good season. He’ll handle around 250 carries, including the goal line touches, making him a pretty solid RB3.