It seems that every year around this time we consider the futures of two NFL quarterbacks: Brett Favre, who tends to waffle on retirement until at least April or, last year, July; and Donovan McNabb, who is rumored to be traded constantly.

This year the latter rumor is very interesting to consider, partly because McNabb might be destined to replace Favre in Minnesota, or Warner in Arizona.

In Philadelphia, three household names might be elsewhere next season. McNabb tops the list, but he’s followed closely by long-time and oft-injured teammate Brian Westbrook and unorthodox quarterback Michael Vick.

Donovan McNabb has been pressed constantly to give us an update on what he expects to happen. His replies have thus far been vanilla.

Will you be in Philadelphia next season? “Why wouldn’t I be? I mean we’ve been going through this the last two, three years. I don’t want to be anywhere else but Philly. I don’t believe in starting somewhere and going somewhere else to finish your career. I believe in starting somewhere and finishing what you’ve started.”

What do you know about Brian Westbrook’s future? “He looks forward to getting back. All the talk people are saying retirement or whatever it may be, it’s all false.”

Will Vick be back for a second season? “Yes.”

In other words, if you talk to Donovan McNabb, all three players are going to be back and as good as ever.

Talk to a journalist, on the other hand, and you might get a different story. Chris Mortensen asked McNabb point blank whether he actually believed he was going to be back. McNabb didn’t miss a beat and asked Mort why he shouldn’t expect to be back.

McNabb has been through all the ups and downs in the NFL. He knows nothing is certain, but he also knows that we’ve been questioning his return to Philadelphia for the past three years now, ever since the team drafted Kevin Kolb in 2007. Since then, Kolb has started two games and thrown four touchdowns and seven interceptions. Quarterback of the future? Maybe. But the future isn’t now.

That said, the speculation certainly makes for a fascinating offseason storyline. Michael Vick showed fans flashes of being a game-changer in his limited role, spiking his value to Philadelphia‘s front office if the franchise choose to trade him. Brian Westbrook, on the other hand, missed seven games this season after concussions left him in haze. Will he return? It’s hard to say. Perhaps more intriguing, will he return to the Eagles? If he chooses to play again in 2010, the Eagles might request a pay-cut; should he refuse, he might have to take his talent and injuries elsewhere.

Westbrook hasn’t averaged fewer than four yards per carry in a season in his career. He only touched the ball 86 times this past season, but he still netted 455 yards from scrimmage and scored two touchdowns. There are plenty of teams that would pay for that kind of production, history of injuries or not. After all, he only missed a combined four games in the previous three seasons. And concussions, while obviously serious in the long term, are not as much of a deal breaker as, say, a knee injury.

Michael Vick doesn’t have come with injury baggage, though. His baggage is of another kind. But, again, there are teams very willing to look past his history and at his performance on the field. He was used only sparingly in Philadelphia’s offense, but that didn’t stop him from showcasing his talent and passing for 86 yards and a touchdown and rushing for another 95 yards and two touchdowns. Those numbers don’t exactly pop off the page, but when you consider he only handled 13 pass attempts and ran with it 24 times out of what was essentially a “gadget” formation, it’s enough to convince some teams he can still start at quarterback.

Consider the Redskins. Jason Campbell hasn’t proven he can be a starter or a winner in this league. Add to the equation a new head coach and different philosophy, and Campbell’s time may be up. The team can afford to get Vick and put him on the field to shake things up and increase the offense’s volatility. Of course, would the Eagles be willing to trade Vick to a division rival? Probably not.

So how about the Raiders? Vick is fast with a strong arm, the two key indications of an ideal Raiders prospect. Jamarcus Russell certainly seems to be a bust at this stage, so why not give Vick a shot to lead the team somewhere? He complements the rest of the offense - bad O-line, fast receivers, explosive running back - so if Oakland can put together a trade package, don’t be surprised to see Vick in silver and black.

Just don’t expect the Eagles to deal McNabb and keep Vick around. There are plenty of McNabb haters in Philadelphia, but Andy Reid isn’t one of the team. He wants his quarterback around in 2010, and it’s hard to find any fault in his logic: McNabb is coming off a season in which he passed the ball for 3,553 yards and 22 touchdowns. Overall, his numbers the past two seasons have been the best statistically of the past five years.

Whatever happens this season, stay tuned. The Eagles need to consider trading three players at key positions, and where they end up will have big implications for 2010.

Another season of fantasy football is wrapped up, leaving some champions and others wondering where they went wrong. Before the postseason kicks off there are dozens of nuggets we learned — or, in some cases, relearned — which may be useful in 2010. Hey, it’s never too early to start thinking about next season, is it?

1. Aaron Rodgers is an elite fantasy football quarterback with one of the best receiving corps in football. Donald Drivers had a terrific season at age 34 and Greg Jennings remains a game-changer. But one of the key notes concerning Rodgers is his ability to spread the ball around. Five players had more than 30 receptions, and five had at least four touchdown receptions. Rodgers himself finished with 4,434 yards, 30 touchdown passes, and just seven interceptions, not to mention he led all quarterbacks in rushing with 316 yards and five additional scores. The Packers offense will continue to roll as long as he’s around, especially with up-and-coming receivers like James Jones and the ultra-talented tight end Jermichael Finley.

2. The Colts know how to draft receivers who fit their offense. Peyton Manning had two receivers with 100 receptions — Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark — but the biggest surprises were Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. Those two combined for 107 receptions, 1,441 yards, and 11 touchdowns, despite missing some games. It reinforced Manning’s status as the premier fantasy quarterback — he passed for 4,500 yards and 33 touchdowns — and reminded fans that Manning doesn’t need Marvin Harrison or Brandon Stokley to be successful: he makes his weapons dangerous.

3. Tony Romo is really good — even in December. Romo finished with 4,483 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions and turned Miles Austin into a fantasy juggernaut. Just as important, Romo caught fire when the temperature dipped: from December to January he averaged 310 passing yards per week and threw nine touchdowns and just two interceptions in five games. And end-of-season collapse be damned: the ‘Boys finished 5-2 in the final seven weeks, sweeping their final three games at New Orleans, at Washington, and as hosts to the Eagles to win the division.

4. Chris Johnson is flat out unstopable. He broke 2,000 yards rushing on 358 carries, adding an addition 50 receptions for 503 yards. He scored 16 times and carried the Titans offense on his shoulders as far as he could, despite defenses knowing he was Tennessee’s only real weapon. Unfortunately, that didn’t mean a playoff berth. However, if you had him on your fantasy roster, he probably got you more than a few wins: he broke 150 yards from scrimmage an incredible 10 times and rushed for 100+ yards 11 consecutive weeks to close the season. Something tells me he’ll be the first player off draft boards next season.

5. These New (York) Jets are bringing pride to the fans. Rex Ryan has coached his Jets to a playoff berth with only the fundamentals in mind: run the ball really well and shut down opposing offenses. It actually seems like this team is winning in spite of rookie Mark Sanchez, who tossed 20 interceptions and just 12 touchdowns. But Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene 1-2 kidney-punched defenses this season 439 times for 1,902 yards and 16 touchdowns. The rest of the offense rushed for an additional 854 yards and chipped in five more touchdowns. And the blitz-happy defense? It ranked first in points, yards, and passing yards.

6. Matt Schaub can sure throw a football when he’s healthy. Everyone knew he had potential, especially with Andre Johnson, arguably the league’s best wide receiver, at his disposal. But did anyone think he’d pass for more yards than Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady? Schaub nailed his targets for 4,770 yards to lead the league and tacked on 29 touchdown passes. Incidentally, he also led the league in passing attempts (583) and completions (396).

7. Philip Rivers’ 2008 season was no fluke. Rivers matched or bettered his numbers in nearly every major passing category, save touchdowns. He completed roughly the same percentage of his passes for more yards (4,254) and fewer interceptions (9). He even ran for a touchdown this season, the second of his career. As for those touchdowns, he might not have hit 34 again, but he did pass for a very respectable 28 and proved to fans and critics that he’s as good as anyone else in the league.

8. The Denver Broncos need a new face at quarterback, someone more like — dare I say? — Jay Cutler. Cutler has his flaws (he showed them this season when he threw 26 interceptions), but Denver needs a quarterback who can take chances and win games, not a game-manager. Kyle Orton played well enough when the defense was shut-down, but he couldn’t be counted on to lead the offense from behind. His failures were one of the critical reasons Denver dropped 8 of its final 10 to miss the postseason.

9. Vincent Jackson is quietly stellar. He has one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL tossing him the football (Philip Rivers), and he’s improved his numbers every season he’s been in the league. This season he caught 68 passes for 1,167 yards (that’s 17.2 yards per catch) and nine touchdowns. Imagine if he improves again next season — be sure you don’t pass on him in your draft.

10. Brandon Marshall is going to make some quarterback very happy next season. Because his contract expires and his demand will be through the roof, Denver might not be able to retain him. And after head coach Josh McDaniels benched him week 17, one wonders whether the franchise wants to retain him. Character issues aside, Marshall is a brilliant receiver and a game-changer. He caught 100 passes for the third consecutive season and had his first double-digit touchdown year to boot. Expect more great things wherever he suits up next season, maybe even in Chicago, to reunite with Jay Cutler and bolster an otherwise below-average corps of receivers.

The fantasy football season has concluded in many leagues, and will reach it’s denouement in other leagues shortly. And with that in mind, and a new year upon us, now seems like a good time to review, position-by-position, what went on this season, and compare it to what we thought would happen going into the year. (Note: All statistics are through Week 16)

QUARTERBACKS

BIGGEST BUST - Matt Cassel, Kansas City: After being traded to the Chiefs and signing a big new contract, Cassel came into this season as, at worst, a QB2, with some fantasy football owners considering him as a possible low-end starter, depending on the match-up. He hasn’t lived up to the contract he signed, and he wasn’t even on most fantasy radars after the beginning of the season. He is 21st in the NFL in passing yards with 2,717, tied for 20th in touchdown throws with 16, is tied for seventh in the league with 15 interceptions, and is 28th with a completion percentage of 55.0.

- Runners-Up: Jay Cutler, David Garrard

BEST VALUE - Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos: Orton was considered far down the totem pole of fantasy quarterbacks, and though he certainly wasn’t an every week starter, he was solid enough to play if the match-up was correct. He threw for 20 touchdowns, which was tied for 16th in the NFL, and 3,371 yards, which was 15th. Orton didn’t hurt his fantasy owners with negative points much, either, throwing only eight interceptions.

- Runners Up:  Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger

RUNNING BACKS

BIGGEST BUST - Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders: While nobody had McFadden as a first-round pick, it was generally thought that he would make a solid contribution as a RB2, or flex play on most weeks. To say that hasn’t happened is an understatement. McFadden was on most waiver wires at the end of the season with numbers that were paltry even when you consider the fact that he missed four games. The former Arkansas Razorbacks star has run for 348 yards, at 3.5 per carry, and just one touchdown, with 21 catches for 245 yards. If anybody told you before the season that McFadden would have three times the amount of lost fumbles as he did touchdowns going into the season’s final week, would you have believed it?

- Runners Up: Steve Slaton, Larry Johnson

BEST VALUE - Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers: This was a close call, as both Ray Rice and Ricky Williams were close, but they were likely drafted higher than Mendenhall. But considering that Mendenhall didn’t play much last season due to injury, and had all of 45 yards through the season’s first three games, he gets the nod. Mendenhall is 11th in the NFL in rushing with over 1,000 yards, and has scored seven touchdowns.

- Runners Up: Rice, Williams

WIDE RECEIVERS

BIGGEST BUST - T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seattle Seahawks: Houshmandzadeh came to Seattle over Minnesota in part because he liked the team’s quarterback situation more. That turned out to be a great thing for the Vikings, who saw players like Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin emerge, while Houshmandzadeh struggled all season, ranking 29th in the NFL with 845 receiving yards, and, most disappointingly, just three touchdown catches, which ranks him tied for 66th in the league, and behind players like Louis Murphy and James Jones.

- Runners Up: Terrell Owens, Ted Ginn

BEST VALUE - Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys: If Austin was drafted at all in fantasy leagues, it was near the bottom of the draft. And through the season’s first four weeks, you saw why, as he caught just five passes for 81 yards in the first quarter of the season. But he caught 10 passes for 250 yard and two scores in Week 5 in Kansas City, and is now fifth in the NFL with 1,230 receiving yards and fourth with 11 touchdown catches.

- Runners Up: Sidney Rice, Mike Sims-Walker

TIGHT ENDS

BIGGEST BUST - Anthony Fasano, Miami Dolphins: After catching 34 passes for 454 yards and seven touchdowns last year, many fantasy owners believed Fasano was on his way to bigger and better things in his fourth season. Unfortunately, he’s gone backwards, and has just two touchdowns among his 29 receptions, along with 298 receiving yards, which is 29th in the NFL among tight ends.

- Runners Up: Martellus Bennett, Bo Scaife

BEST VALUE - Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers: Fantasy owners have been waiting for Davis to break out, but after he regressed statistically last season, many had given up hope. He was still a draftable player, but nobody believed he’d accomplish what he has so far this season. He’s more than doubled his numbers in every category from 2008 to this season, and has 72 receptions for 876 yards. More importantly, he’s caught 12 touchdown passes, which is tied for second in the NFL.

- Runners Up: Jermichael Finley, Brent Celek

Fantasy football enthusiasts around the country have started battling for supremacy in their respective leagues, allowing them a chance for either eternal glory or unceasing shame and humiliation. Okay, that may be stretching things a bit, but the fact remains that these final weeks of the season are do-or-die time, and even the smallest of mistakes can flitter away your chances at taking home a championship. To help guide you on your way, here are a few things to keep in mind.

- Dance With the Girl That Brought You: In this instance, the girl that brought you is actually a large man wearing a helmet, but the point remains - your stars are the ones who got you into the fantasy playoffs in the first place - don’t abandon them now. Match-ups are important, but don’t let them completely overrule your instinct. For example, if you own both Tony Gonzalez and Dante Rosario, don’t start Rosario this week just because the Vikings have been much softer on opposing tight ends this season than the Jets have. To put it simply, don’t over-think things.

- Remember the Defense: Fantasy football owners pay plenty of attention to their quarterbacks, tight ends, wide receivers and especially running backs, but just kind of ignore their defense, or leave it as is because, well, that’s the easy thing to do, right? Yes, but in the fantasy playoffs, every point counts. And though we just said to leave well enough alone in the paragraph above, there is a big difference between individual stars and entire teams. We’re not saying go out and pick up the Chiefs’ defense just because they’re playing the Browns, but we are saying it’s not the smartest move to stick with the Cowboys’ defense against the Saints this week. Dallas, who is sixth in scoring defense so far this year, hasn’t been an upper echelon defensive unit in fantasy football this season, and they wouldn’t have been an especially significant contributor to getting you into the fantasy playoffs, but they were a defense you could win with. However, you just can’t use them this week against New Orleans and expect to win.

- Enjoy it: It is a game, remember? So have some fun, no matter what happens the next couple of weeks (But not too much fun, at least in the company of certain people. There is a little bit of etiquette involved. If you’re in a league with, say, your boss, and you beat him to win the championship, maybe you want to hold back on the gloating just, you know, a smidge. That is, unless you want to get transferred to Alaska; but we hear it’s just a wee bit nippy there this time of year).

Week 10 of the 2009 season will most likely be remembered for the Colts-Patriots game and the controversial decision by Bill Belichick to go for it on fourth down.  But there were other stories elsewhere, many of which pertained to running backs.  Five starting running backs went down this past week, some with more serious injuries than others.  I will analyze both the short-term and long-term effects of these injuries as well as fantasy ramifications associated with them.

• Cedric Benson – After seven carries vs. Pittsburgh, Benson had to leave the game with a hip injury.  Coach Lewis says he will likely be a game-time decision, but Benson has never been praised for his toughness so don’t expect him to carry a full-load on Sunday, if he plays at all.  Expect Bernard Scott to receive the bulk of the carries with Brian Leonard getting his usual reps on third downs.  As for Larry Johnson?  Don’t expect anything more than a carry or two this week and don’t expect many touches for Johnson for the rest of the season.  LJ’s burst is gone and he hasn’t scored a TD or had a 20 yard run since December 2008.

• Ronnie Brown – Brown has injuries to both his right ankle and foot and with a game on Thursday vs. Carolina, there’s almost no chance of him being ready.  In fact, this is looking like an injury that could keep Brown out for a couple of weeks.  As of Tuesday, Brown was still unable to walk without the use of crutches.  Ricky Williams will definitely see an increase in touches and last week he received his first 20 carry game since 2005.  But someone still has to take over Brown’s role as the operator of the Wildcat; the one who receives the snap and then decides whether to run, pass, or handoff to Williams on the end around.  Look for that to be Pat White who had 45 rushing yards vs. New England, but just one last week vs. Tampa Bay.  White is only worth having on your team if you’re in a two-QB league and he has the potential to rack up somewhere between four and eight points per game over the next couple of weeks.  While that may not be much, I’d rather take my chances with White than with guys like JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn who have COMBINED for one fantasy point over the last four weeks.

• Julius Jones – With a bruised rib that’s causing bleeding in his lungs, Jones is unlikely to play Sunday vs. the Vikings and will probably be doubtful for Week 12 as well.  Justin Forsett will get the start and he was impressive last week in gaining 123 yards and scoring the first touchdown of his career.  However, the Seahawks will play Minnesota who is allowing the second fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.  They have not allowed more than 84 rushing yards to a running back and Ray Rice is the only player to score a rushing touchdown against them.  Nevertheless, Forsett will likely get 18-20 touches and can be used as a flex play until Jones returns.

• Michael Turner – Turner has the dreaded high ankle sprain which could keep him out a couple of weeks.  The Monday re-signing of Aaron Stecker also indicates that Jerious Norwood may not return this week due to his hip injury.  That means Jason Snelling will receive the bulk of the carries for the time being.  Along with Justin Forsett, Snelling is probably at the top of waiver wire requests for Week 11.  Snelling has impressed when given the chance to do so as he had 129 rushing yards and 1 TD over his last two games.  The Falcons will see a rejuvenated Giants defense this week but the following week they take on Tampa Bay who has the second worst run defense in the league.  Consider Snelling a RB3 for the Giants game but then upgrades to an RB2 against the Bucs.

• Brian Westbrook – This is the most serious injury as Westbrook suffered his second concussion in the last month.  Though it hasn’t been confirmed yet, it appears that Westbrook may miss the rest of the season.  He’s always been able to bounce back from knee, ankle, and foot injuries but this is something that could affect his general well-being so look for the Eagles to shut him down.  Even though Philadelphia doesn’t like to run the ball, LeSean McCoy receives an immediate upgrade and should be a weekly starter in your lineup.  Fullback Leonard Weaver will also see an increase in touches and he had 108 rushing yards and a TD in the two full games that Westbrook was out.  Also, don’t be surprised if the “Michael Vick Experiment” gets another run as Andy Reid will do everything he can to get his struggling running game going.

Now that we’re about at the halfway point of the NFL and fantasy football season – if there is such a thing in a 17-week season – it seems like a good time to take a look at the leaders at each position in terms of fantasy points to see how things have shaped up to this point. We’ll start, naturally, at the quarterback position.

QUARTERBACKS

Aaron Rodgers is tied for third in touchdown passes in the league, and just sixth in the NFL in passing yards, so how could he be the No. 1 player at his position in fantasy points? The answer is really quite simple: running the ball. His 214 rushing yards are more than any other quarterback, and his two rushing scores are tied for first. As far as surprises go, seeing Kurt Warner below the likes of Carson Palmer and just ahead of Eli Manning qualifies, as most fantasy owners figured he’d be much further up in the rankings. But Warner wouldn’t even be that high up if not for his 30-point game last week – his first of the season with more than 20 points.

RUNNING BACKS

The cluster at the top of the running back position is among players that everyone figured would be there. Maurice Jones-Drew has almost 200 fewer rushing yards than Chris Johnson, but with 11 touchdowns, he also has nearly double Johnson’s total of six. There’s no need to look far if you’re searching for surprises. Ray Rice is fourth in large part due to his 436 receiving yards – which is over 100 yards more than any other running back in the NFL. And Ricky Williams in the top-10? Who’d of thunk it?

WIDE RECEIVERS

The wideout position is the one where things have pretty much gone according to plan. Vincent Jackson’s ascendance to the top shouldn’t have come as much of a surprise considering his career arc up until this season, and the giant steps forward he had been progressively making. Miles Austin is really the only name you’ll see on this leader board that was not projected to be there. Many fantasy owners thought he had a chance to make headway into fantasy relevance this season, but to explode the way he has in just the last few games is a unique occurrence.

TIGHT ENDS

Many fantasy owners had about given up on Vernon Davis, and for good reason. He was a top-10 pick with phenomenal physical abilities who was underachieving. But that all changed this season, and he’s the No. 1 scorer in fantasy points at his position, due mostly to his seven touchdowns, which leads all tight ends. Brent Celek was a very solid sleeper before the season, and that’s paid off for those who heeded that advice. Someone who hasn’t paid off, however – Jason Witten, who is actually tied with Chris Cooley for 15th in fantasy points, because he hasn’t found the end zone often enough. Or found it at all, really, as he has just one touchdown reception on the season.

I have a friend who told me this weekend that Chris Johnson is amazing, and it’s hard to disagree at first glance. Few players can compete with the game-changing performances he brings to the table. If you’ve watched any Titans games this season or at least tuned into the “fastest three minutes” segment of Monday Night Football to hear Chris Berman “Whoop!” and “Whaap!”, you know that Chris Johnson has been electrifying.

As of week eight, Johnson leads the NFL in rushing yards with 824 and through seven games he has 961 yards from scrimmage this season. Based on those numbers, Johnson is on a clear pace for over 2,000 yards from scrimmage this season and close to 1,900 rushing yards.

But there’s a catch.

Johnson, as most know, plays for one of the NFL’s biggest disappointments. Despite his explosive performances this season, he hasn’t found the endzone as often as one might expect after seeing his yards from scrimmage. His four rushing touchdowns tie him for 11th in the NFL with 10 other players. Heck, Reggie Bush has that many rushing scores with a tad more than 1/3 of the carries.

Too bad that’s not all. Chris Johnson, despite posting some incredible numbers this season, has more often than not been an average fantasy player. A typical game for him consists of around 90-100 yards from scrimmage and zero touchdowns.

Not terrible, but it hardly justifies him as a week-in week-out RB1. His lack of consistency this season cannot be trumped by his two explosive performances that account for 523 yards from scrimmage and all five touchdowns.

Yes, you read that correctly: more than half his yards and all his touchdowns are a result of just two games. If you had Johnson and started him those weeks you probably won your game. It’d be hard not to: he posted around 80 combined fantasy points in most standard leagues.

But what if you started him the other weeks, hoping he’d break out again and beat the living daylights out of a defense? Chances are you wouldn’t be happy.

Check out this Sports Data Hub graph that displays his fantasy points this season:

His “consistency” level is around 10 points per game (and that’s generous). Overall he typically falls between 5-10 points. Those two breakout performances highlight him as a player with stellar numbers.

He might be a stellar player, but he doesn’t get the touches to showcase it on a weekly basis. He has 119 carries and 18 receptions this season, putting him on pace for a year similar to 2008. He wasn’t a consistent RB1 last year; don’t expect him to be a consistent RB1 for the rest of this season, either.

Overview

Take the 32nd ranked offense and 31st ranked defense and what do you get? Well, at this stage in the season you get an 0-5 team with just a hint of a prayer to win a game this season: the St. Louis Rams. The Rams have been outscored by more than 22 points per game this season, have been shut out twice, and have scored more than ten points once.

But, hey, Jacksonville is struggling too. Last week at Seattle they were blown out 41-0, a startling loss considering they actually had a two-game win streak going into it. A frustrated Maurice Jones-Drew was prompted to say after the game that he is the second-highest paid “decoy” in the NFL behind Reggie Bush.

Injuries

St. Louis: No significant fantasy-relevant injuries, but Marc Bulger returns this week

Jacksonville: No significant fantasy-relevant injuries

When St. Louis has the Ball

Steven Jackson = good. Rest of offense = bad. That may be an exaggeration, but it’s not without truth. Jackson has rushed for 451 yards and taken 14 receptions for 92 more, averaging a few bit under 110 yards per game this season. Unfortunately, he hasn’t scored yet (which actually puts him in the majority when speaking of St. Louis’s offense) so fantasy players might find that disappointing.

When speaking of a team that has scored just 29 points in five games, it’s hard to advise on starting any of its players. Jackson may be the exception, but looking at the rest of the offense it’s hard to find a receiver who consistently gets receptions or a quarterback who consistently completes his passes.

To his credit, Marc Bulger had thrown two touchdowns and zero interceptions in games this season, and against the Vikings last week he completed 7-of-7 for 88 yards and a touchdown. It’s just too bad that prior to that anomaly performance he had completed 51.5 percent of his pass attempts for a 5.0 yards per attempt average.

As the receiving talent goes, only Randy McMichael has caught at least two passes in every game this season; too bad that’s about all he’s caught. With 13 receptions for 144 yards, McMichael is anything but a stud at tight end. Aside from McMichael, Steven Jackson is the most consistent receiver on the roster, yet another reason he remains the only fantasy-relevant player on the roster.

When St. Louis plays Jacksonville this week, they’ll be going up against a defense that either allows about 25 points per game. Only twice this season has it held opponents to under 20 points, and never has it kept opponents out of the endzone fewer than two times in a game. Whether St. Louis is the exception is in the hands of Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson.

When Jacksonville has the Ball

Inconsistency on offense and consistently poor play on defense has costed the Jaguars three losses this season. Only slightly ahead of Houston going into the week, the Jaguars need a win. The way to get it, at least according to Maurice Jones-Drew, is to run the ball.

“The running game is like chess,” explained Jones-Drew. “The running game is your pawns. They don’t really mean that much in the beginning, but at the end, they surround the king and it’s check mate. That’s what the running game is.

“We’re not going to break 30-yard runs every play. You’re going to get 2, 3 yards a pop. You might get a negative run, but (defenses are) going to respect the run game and that’s going to open up the pass game and open up the run game later on, where you’re going to be breaking 10-, 15-yard chunks.”

He later engaged reporters with another metaphor concerning offensive linemen and ballroom dancing, but that can be saved for another article. The point is Jacksonville fell behind early against Seattle and ditched the run to play catch-up. A couple of David Garrard fumbles and the offense’s trouble on third and fourth down — Jacksonville converted just 2-of-13 on third down and 1-of-2 on fourth down — kept the game out of reach of the Jaguars.

If the offense listens to Jones-Drew and runs the ball more often this week, they’ll probably be met with success. (Of course, the same could be said of passing the ball; St. Louis has struggled to stop teams trying to do either of those things.) MJD has been held to just 18 carries the past two weeks, so he’s due to get a heavy load. Let’s just hope his game will match his mouth if he gets a bunch of touches.

The Advantage

Jacksonville will be tough to beat at home, especially if the Rams fail to put points on the board. Again. Jacksonville isn’t a bad team; they’re just a team that had a bad week against the Seahawks. Expect them to bounce back against the 0-5 Rams.

Booms and Busts

Boom! Maurice-Jones Drew just has to live up to his comments, doesn’t he? Regardless, he’s been good for about 25 receiving yards per game throughout the season and in the first three weeks he rushed for 282 yards and four touchdowns. I think this is the week we see the return of that Jones-Drew.

Bust! Marc Bulger is back, but that doesn’t mean the offense is. Bulger has two touchdown passes this season and in the two complete games he played the offense scored seven total points. Don’t expect this week to be different.

Are you surprised that your early-round pick has flopped so far this season, or that one of your later picks is playing past your expectations so far? You shouldn’t be, at least not if you had looked at what was taking place towards the end of the 2008 season. Let’s check out a few trends that began towards the end of last season that have continued through the beginning of the 2009 season.

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys: Romo started to falter in Week 14 last season, a trend that continued the rest of the year. Over his final four games of the 2008 campaign, Romo averaged 222 passing yards per game while completing 56 percent of his throws with five touchdowns and six interceptions. Though his big game against the Chiefs last week buoyed his numbers, Romo has still been merely average so far this season, averaging 268 passing yards per contest and tossing six touchdowns with four interceptions while completing 58 percent of his throws. Accuracy seems to be the biggest issue facing Romo. Over his last nine games, he’s completed 60 percent or more of his throws just twice.

Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers: Going in the opposite direction of Romo starting towards the tail end of the 2008 season was Jackson. After just one game of at least 85 receiving yards through that season’s first 13 weeks, Jackson went over that mark three times in the final four games of the year. He averaged five catches for 99 yards in that span, and caught two touchdowns. Through San Diego’s first four games of the 2009 season, Jackson has two touchdowns and twice has had at least 120 receiving yards.

Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins: Portis hasn’t crashed and burned this season, but he hasn’t performed as fantasy owners hoped he would. Through his first five games, Portis is averaging nearly 68 rushing yards per contest and has scored just one time. His delve into statistical mediocrity began last season in Week 13. After having rushed for 120 or more yards in six of the Redskins’ previous eight games, Portis finished the final five weeks of the season averaging only 56 yards per game. And though he scored twice, he also lost two fumbles in that time.

Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts: Already this season, Clark has had three games of at least 75 receiving yards, and just once – in Week 1 – has he not had at least 60 receiving yards. He’s averaging seven receptions for 88 yards in per game this season, and has scored two touchdowns. His surge actually started in Week 15 of 2008, against the Lions. After not having a 100-yard receiving game all year, Clark had two such contests with at least 100 yards over the season’s final three weeks, and he scored twice while averaging nearly nine receptions and 102 yards per game.

We’re four weeks into the season, and 28 of the NFL’s 32 teams have played their first four games. There was a lot to glean from these games, and an important aspect of fantasy football is recognizing trends and adjusting to them. This series of posts hopes to shed some light on all 32 teams through statistical analysis.

1) Don’t give up on Tom Brady. The offense has been rolling the past two weeks, and Brady has thrown at least one touchdown in each of his past two starts against very good opponents, Atlanta and Baltimore, and has failed to throw a touchdown just once (week two against the Jets, who also, by the way, shut down Drew Brees week four). Furthermore, he’s passed for at least 250 yards each of the weeks he threw a touchdown pass and, despite the slow start, he’s still been a top ten fantasy quarterback.

2) New England’s running game doesn’t boast a lot of fantasy talent. Fred Taylor broke 100 rushing yards week three and has scored two touchdowns this season, but he’s also been held under 50 yards rushing in three games and has caught two passes for 17 yards. Lastly, Taylor is the only back to have broken 20 carries; he did it once. No one else has carried more than 10 times in a single game, making it the ultimate “by-committee” approach in the NFL.

3) Randy Moss is leading the team in receptions (29), but don’t expect it to last all season. Wes Welker has 18 receptions in two games this season, and he was targeted 26 times in those games. He’s an integral part of this offense, and he’ll demand 100 receptions by the end of this season assuming he doesn’t miss more time.

4) Randy Moss remains a stellar fantasy wide receiver. He’s been Tom Brady’s favorite target, and he’ll certainly garner close to 100 receptions by the end of the season. He’s broken 10 fantasy points in three games this season and 100 yards in two games. The two surprising numbers: Moss has broken 12 yards per reception just once this year (last week); and his play has been very erratic in the sense he caught 22 passes in weeks one and three and 7 passes in weeks two and four. No doubt it was because he played against two outstanding defenses those weeks: Baltimore and New York (Jets).

5) Don’t be fooled by tight end Ben Watson’s numbers through the first four games. He has 12 receptions for 174 yards and two touchdowns this season, but most of that is due to week one when he caught 6 passes for 77 yards and two touchdowns. In other words, he’s averaged 2 receptions for 32 yards the past three weeks.