LaDainian Tomlinson - The Pros

Tomlinson has been one of the most consistent fantasy football picks the game has come across in some time. He blends rushing and receiving to the point that he can make a case that he’s the league’s best player. He’s been the Chargers’ leading rusher for the past seven seasons (since he was drafted as a rookie, actually) and he’s finished lower than 2nd (twice he was 1st) on the team in receptions just once in the past seven seasons. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter what your league scoring is: Tomlinson has been the best fantasy player in the NFL for a very long time now.

Also consider: he’s led the league in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns each of the past two seasons and he’s finished the season with at least 1,750 yards from scrimmage six consecutive years, now. And did I forget to mention that he’s also thrown six touchdown passes in the past three seasons? His career passer rating is a sparkling 154.4 (league max: 158.3). Oh, and he set a scoring record in 2006 when he found the endzone 31 times.

Yeah, he’s a safe pick.

LaDainian Tomlinson - The Cons

Yes, there are a few cons to consider. First, let’s remember that Tomlinson has been the heart and soul of the Chargers’ offense for arguably seven years, and he’s missed just one start. That means he’s taken his shots and kept playing at a position where he’s taking a hit on almost every play, usually from more than a few players when he’s carrying the ball. And he’s handled at least 313 carries every season of his career (2365 career carries - 3rd among active players), meaning he may be headed for a breakdown.

Yes, it’s cliche to be concerned that a player may be headed for a breakdown every time they handle a lot of carries, but remember, Tomlinson has also caught his fair share of passes. Think about this: he’s had at least 375 touches every season of his career and at least 400 in 5 of his seven pro seasons. Plus, at age 29, Tomlinson (if he’s like most backs) has already peaked and should be seeing a drop in his numbers.

Let’s Review …

The Pros

• Consistency, baby. No one’s been more consistent.
• Versatility. Tomlinson does it all - he runs the ball, catches the ball, and, you guessed it, throws the ball. And he does all three better than just about anyone else in football.
• He’s always a league leader. And he’s been the best in the NFL each of the past two seasons.

The Cons

• He may be on track for a breakdown. No one handles the ball as much as Tomlinson does on a yearly basis and stays healthy for an entire career.
• He may have peaked. The prime age for most running backs is around 26-27, so Tomlinson may soon be seeing a significant drop in production.

Adrian Peterson - The Pros

Peterson may have played just one season, but, boy, was it special. 2007’s NFL Rookie of the Year finished second in the league in rushing (behind LT), despite carrying the ball just 238 times. But though his totals might not show him being a league leader, no one averaged more yards per game than did Peterson who ran for about 95.8 per week.

This season the Vikings are better. Tarvaris Jackson has a season’s worth of experience under his belt, and he’s been dealt a new receiver to work with: Bernard Berrian, the best receiver Minnesota has seen since Randy Moss was catching passes from Daunte Culpepper. And as for that offensive line - it’s one of the best in the NFL.

And let’s not forget this detail: he started just nine games last year. Imagine if Peterson had carried 300 times last season, keeping his incredible 5.6 yard per carry average; he’d have led the NFL with nearly 1,700 yards rushing. Now imagine if he had carried the same number of times as league leader Clinton Portis (who handled 325); his yardage would have hit well over 1,800.

Peterson carried the ball 20+ times in only six games last season (much to the dissatisfaction of fans), and in two of those games he broke 200 yards on the ground. Imagine what will happen this season when coach Brad Childress cuts him loose for an entire season.

Defenses should already be afraid.

Adrian Peterson - The Cons

One season. That’s all we’ve seen from Peterson, meaning there’s no guarantee he repeats. And though I mentioned earlier that the Vikings improved their passing game, it bears mentioning that I have little faith in that facet of the offense. This is not a team that will burn defenses through the air; this is a team that will be forced to pound it out on the ground.

And as for Peterson’s numbers last year; on the season, they were brilliant. Game-by-game? Not so much. Peterson may have had six 100-yard performances, but it should be noted that more than 38 percent of his yards for the season came in two weeks. And his yard per carry average dipped below 4.0 in six games, bottoming out when he carried the ball 14 times for 3 yards (0.2 yard per carry average) in week 11. In fact, in his final four games of the season (weeks 11-14) he carried the ball 54 times for 154 yards and just two touchdowns; that’s less than three yards per carry.

Lastly, let’s not forget that Peterson had just 19 receptions last season, scoring just once when he caught a pass. He doesn’t have the versatility one might want from a fantasy back; especially if you’re in a PPR league.

Let’s Review …

The Pros

• He was Rookie of the Year for a reason. He posted fantastic numbers, despite just nine starts.
• His supporting cast is improving. The Vikings added Bernard Berrian and Jackson will likely be better this season.
• The Vikings have a phenomenal offensive line. Matt Birk, Steve Hutchinson, and Bryant McKinnie are among the best at their respective positions.
  

The Cons

• He’s played just one season. Translation: we don’t know if he’s a one hit wonder or if he’s poised to be a consistent player. Speaking of which …
• He had some bad games. We’ll forgive him, but his inconsistency - especially near the end of the season - make me wonder if he’s worth the top pick in a fantasy draft.
• He wasn’t a factor in the passing game. He caught just 19 passes during the course of the season, so you may want to knock his value down a bit if you’re in a PPR league.

The Ultimate Verdict: If you’re looking for Mr. Consistency - someone I can promise will have a great season - go with LaDainian Tomlinson. He’s been the league’s best for a long time now, and you can’t go wrong. But if you want to shake things up and take a shot, pick Peterson. He won’t have a bad season and his upside is scary good.

My Pick: I’m a consistency guy, myself, so I’ll take Tomlinson. He’s the sure thing, someone who’s a lock to finish in the top three in fantasy scoring. But I’ll be watching out for the owner in my league who drafts Peterson number two. And if I was picking two and Peterson fell to me? I’d be psyched.

It’s good to look at touchdowns scored and other superficial statistics, but to get the real story, one needs to dig a little deeper. You don’t necessarily need a spreadsheet or a calculator, just something to record your findings (and those tools certainly do make matters easier). The most important thing to bring to the table is a curious mind that doesn’t mind getting analytical.

These are some of the numbers I find most useful when applied to running backs:

1. Yard Per Carry (YPC) Average - It’s nice to know that a running back ran for 1,000 yards in a given season, but it’s more important to look at how effective he was. There’s a vast difference between a ball carrier who gains 1,200 yards on a 3.5 yard per carry average and a runner who picks up 1,200 yards on a 4.5 yard per carry average. Even though your calculations might reveal the same number of fantasy points, I’d rather have the second runner because history shows that he has a better opportunity to repeat his numbers or improve upon them.
2. Number of Games with at Least 70 Rushing Yards - Why not 100 yards? The difference is 3 points in most scoring systems, and you’re bound to find more consistency with 70 yards. If you’re looking for a player who had a bunch of big games, by all means use 100 yards. But if you’re looking for a player who was a consistent scorer - someone who you don’t have to worry about starting week in and out - then use 70 yards.
3. Number of Games with at Least One Touchdown - Two players look similar on paper; both scored 12 touchdowns. The difference? Player A had at least one score in 9 games (and had a few 2 touchdown games) while Player B scored all of his touchdowns in just 6 games. B might have made you a happy owner those weeks, but the rest of the season he probably left you frustrated as he was kept out of the endzone.
   
4. Number of Games with at Least 18 Carries (and the Average Yards Gained in Those Games) - Here’s what you’ll learn: how much the offense is using him and how effective he is when they do. Some running backs have a great yard per carry average but are not great draft picks because their teams don’t give them enough touches.
5. Number of Games with at Least 100 Yards from Scrimmage - This is a really cool stat because it doesn’t matter if they scored a touchdown in those games; if a player breaks 100 yards from scrimmage (rushing yards + receiving yards) he’s scoring 10 points. Any touchdowns are just gravy.
6. Number of Games with at Least 10 Fantasy Points Scored - Here’s something to keep in mind: if a running back scored 10 fantasy points in 13 games last season, he should be a starter on your fantasy team.

Do I expect anyone to look at all these statistics for every running back in the draft? No, of course not. But when you’re stuck between two players with similar projections and 3-year averages, it’s nice to have some numbers to separate them.

Lastly, what’s do all these statistics have in common? Consistency because that’s what wins championships.

Miami does not want a repeat of last season’s embarrassing debacle that resulted in a 13-loss start to the season and a 1-15 record. And so the team has brought in NFL expert Bill Parcells to steer this team in the right direction, not as a coach but in a management position.

But the team’s season still rides on the success (or failure) of this offense. More specifically, the running game must improve because the passing game will not; at least not with John Beck, Josh McCown, and Chad Henne tossing near-spirals. The good news is this: the running game can’t get worse. Last season the team managed to rank 32nd in rush attempts, 32nd in rushing yards, 30th in rushing touchdowns, and 30th in yard per carry average.

Dreadful. Simply dreadful.

But there is reason for hope this season. Ronnie Brown is feeling better in his recovery, letting us all know that he believes he’ll be 100 percent by the start of the season. The Dolphins camp opens July 26th, and if all goes well he’ll be cleared for contact drills.

And a healthy Ronnie Brown is definitely a good thing. Last season the tailback was on pace for nearly 1,300 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns, and, prior to his injury, he was one of the league’s leading rushers. His 5.1 yard per carry average was stellar and he managed to carry for 86 yards per game, despite being limited to just 17 carries per contest.

Of course, there is the chance he’ll be injured. Brown hasn’t played a complete season in his career, and there’s absolutely no reason to expect him to carry 20+ times per game. And why is that? Because Miami has brought a former Dolphin back to spell Brown - Ricky Williams. Williams, who is now 31 years old, will never be a featured back in the NFL again. But the word on the street is that he’s in great shape and is ready to give the NFL a serious go one more time; he wants to play four more seasons.

And last month, the South Florida Sun-Sentinel’s Omar Kelly wrote that Ricky Williams was the most impressive Dolphins player in practices. That’s high praise for Williams, but given his natural talent I can’t say I’m surprised. If he’s focused and in shape, he’s definitely a solid backup running back who can handle 5-10 touches per game.

Do I think the Dolphins are poised for a good season? No, this is a team I expect to win 4 or 5 games. But this running game might be worth a close look for fantasy footballers out there. Ronnie Brown is well worth a draft pick, and Williams might wind up a solid handcuff.

Who thought anyone would ever write a sentence like that again? 

Bush has carried 312 times for 1146 yards and 10 touchdowns … in 28 games over two seasons. His yard per carry average is a measly 3.7, and he hasn’t proven he can run between the tackles. His one saving grace is his receiving ability, but those numbers took a steep drop last season as he caught 73 passes (15 fewer than his rookie season).

Why? The Saints aren’t taking anyone by surprise anymore, and Bush is proving himself to be a jack-of-all-trades, master of none. He can catch a lot of passes, but he doesn’t get a ton of yards. He can run the ball but not effectively. He’s an electrifying talent, but he doesn’t find the endzone enough (just 6 times last season).

Let’s consider:

• Bush has one career 100-yard rushing game and that was two years ago.
  
• He also has two career 100-yard receiving games, but, again, those were two years ago.
  
• He’s scored 14 times, but he’s been held scoreless in 19 of his 28 game appearances.
  
• In just four games last season he averaged 4.0 yards per carry or more; in just as many games he averaged less than 3.0.
  
• He finished second on the team in receptions last season but 11th in yards per reception (lower, in fact, than fullback Mike Karney).

From a fantasy football standpoint, Reggie Bush has finished 17th and 24th among running backs the past two seasons. He’s also been one of the most inconsistent producers an owner can have. But, at the same time, he’s been a late first round, early second round draft choice.

Don’t reach on Bush again. He’s a third round draft pick at best (assuming a 12 team league), but there are many more running backs who will be far more consistent throughout the course of a season, so I suggest drafting them ahead of him.

Flashing Back

In an injury-plagued 2007 season, Jackson managed to rush for 1,002 yards, scoring 6 touchdons. Also, the offensive line was weak for most of the season, and the Rams uncharacteristically weak passing game failed to open up the running game. In truth, the Rams as a whole were a very disappointing team last season. Typically St. Louis field a top 10 offense year in and out, but last season the unit ranked 24th in yardage and 28th in points, mostly due to injuries.

Focusing on Jackson

2007 was Jackson’s fourth NFL season and at age 25 he has yet to hit his peak. Also, it should be noted that Jackson’s body was worn down from the year before, when the Rams gave him 346 carries and 90 receptions. It isn’t particularly surprising that he broke down a season later.

But when you look at his 2006 season, a couple numbers jump out. One, his yard per catch average (9.0) was relatively high for a running back. He definitely brings that extra dimension to his game and opens things up for the Rams to take advantage of his athleticism. Two, Jackson scored 16 touchdowns (though it should be noted that 10 came in the final four weeks of the season).

Looking Ahead

The Rams are poised to bounce back this season. The team should be healthy for the start of the season, and the offensive line can’t be any worse than it was last year. Also, the passing game should bounce back, to take pressure off the running game while tossing Jackson a few more receptions. And expect the Rams to run the ball more with a healthy Jackson in the backfield.

Project for at least 1,376 rushing yards, 55 receptions, 415 receiving yards, and 15 total touchdowns. Those are very good numbers for any RB1, and they could make Jackson the best fantasy football running back drafted. He’s a safer pick than Adrian Peterson and he has more potential than Brian Westbrook because he’ll get more touches.

What will be different this season, now that Bill Billick has been replaced with John Harbaugh?

It’s a little hard to predict at this point, but here’s what we do know now: Harbaugh offers an interesting coaching perspective, having been a special teams coordinator for seven seasons and, last season, a defensive backs coordinator. For fans concerned for offensive production, it might not have been a great idea to bring in a former coordinator or offensive guru. Remember, that’s what Bill Billick was supposed to be when he took over. And, really, what Harbaugh brings to the table is much more intriguing; he’s a good leader and he can unify a team that very much needs a new identity. I expect he’ll have a positive impact.

Who will play quarterback this season?

Speculation is growing stronger that second-year quarterback Troy Smith will start the season at quarterback. According to recent reports, Kyle Boller is offering little competition, and most would agree that it is in Joe Flacco’s best interests to sit out part of the season while he acclimates himself to the NFL.

Is Smith draftable?

Probably not. Smith brings athleticism to the table and has impressed coaches with his passing abilities thus far, but the Ravens’ offense will need to prove itself before I would recommend adding him to your roster.

How will the Ravens drafting Ray Rice affect the offense and Willis McGahee’s production?

Rice is most likely going to be used in the passing game. He has great hands and the Ravens have been working him out of the slot. I wouldn’t be surprised if he steals some receptions from McGahee, but the latter is still a lock to break 1,000 rushing yards.

How should one approach drafting Rice and/or McGahee?

Rice is McGahee’s handcuff, meaning you should draft both of them. McGahee is a constant threat to become injured and Rice is his immediate backup. As far as McGahee’s drafting goes, I would project for at least 1,300 rushing yards, 35 receptions, 210 receiving yards, and 9 total touchdowns; pick him at the end of the first round in a 12 team draft.

Should I stay away from Ravens wide receivers?

Probably, simply because the Ravens are uncertain at quarterback. Regardless of who starts, the position will be lacking either experience or intangibles and the passing game will probably finish the season near the bottom of the NFL in terms of yards and touchdowns.

That said, one receiver you might want to take a look at is Derrick Mason (as a WR3) because he’ll catch a lot of passes (he had 103 receptions last year). Mark Clayton might be someone to draft very late (think final two or three rounds).

How will the Ravens fare this season?

Baltimore’s season two years ago; probably a fluke. This is a team that will be going through a coaching transition (which typically results in a mediocre season or one worse than the year before). Expect the Ravens to finish third in the division with a 7-9 record.

#3 … He has 2449 rushing attempts. That’s more than any active NFL player and the 13th highest career total in pro football history. That’s really a scary total number of touches, though not a particularly surprising one: he’s had 310 or more carries each of the past five seasons, peaking with 360 in 2005.

#2 … His production and/or involvement in the offense has slipped every year since 2004. Okay, so he scored a few more touchdowns in 2005 than he did the season before. Still, his yard per carry average dropped .4 points and he’s caught fewer passes every year since. Last year he was almost a non-factor in the passing game, hauling in just 24 receptions. And his yard per carry average the past two seasons? 3.4 and 3.8.

#1 … He plays for the Arizona Cardinals. Quick, who’s the greatest running back in Arizona Cardinals history? Can’t think of anyone? Maybe that’s because Ottis Anderson, who played from 1979-part of 1986 was the last “great” Cardinals running back. And he played when the team was still the St. Louis Cardinals. Listen, the Cardinals have changed their first name twice since he was on the roster (first the Phoenix Cardinals, now Arizona Cardinals), and no one has led the team in rushing for more than three consecutive seasons since he left for New York.

What the heck happened last year?

That’s hard to say. The Broncos looked promising the year before and I don’t think anyone figured this was a team that would take two steps back a season later. In fact, this was a team that was much worse than its 7-9 record showed. The Broncos won by three points only 3 times during the course of the season and could have easily lost 3 or 4 more games. (There are Oakland Raiders fans who don’t think the Broncos played fair at the end of the game, week two.)

Here was the biggest problem: scoring. Sounds obvious, I know, but here was the biggest issue: Denver could move the ball down field without much trouble, but the offense just couldn’t get across the goal line. For the first time since 1992 (and the second time since 1983), Denver ranked in the 20s (21, actually) in scoring offense. And the defense’s rank in terms of scoring was the worst in franchise history.

What can we fans expect this year?

Improvement. The Broncos were uncharacteristically bad last season, due in no small part to the slew of distractions thrown at the team. Suspensions, appeals, injuries, and even deaths kept the team’s focus off football. And that was understandable. The Broncos offseason was marred with tragedy and the regular season was filled with dirty laundry (mostly Travis Henry’s).

Henry is gone. Javon Walker (who was injured and was described by teammates as being out of character last season) is gone. The team is more experienced and better equipped to deal with distractions this time around. And remember, this is a Broncos team coached by Mike Shanahan: it will not underachieve two seasons in a row.

How good will Cutler be?

Franchise quarterback Jay Cutler has all the tools he needs to succeed in this offense, and he showed a lot of promise last season. He was effective in the pocket and out of the pocket. He was able to evade the rush and his patience improved during the course of the year.

His rapport with receiver Brandon Marshall is very exciting and I look forward to Cutler playing more consistent football this year. Project for at least 3,600 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, and draft him as a lower-end QB1.

How does Brandon Marshall compare to his peers?

Considering it was just his second season and that he was forced to play a big role in Denver’s offense last season, the fact that Marshall was a top 10 fantasy receiver is impressive. And with Javon Walker gone for good, he’ll remain a key component of this offense. As mentioned earlier, Cutler has good chemistry with the young receiver and I expect Marshall will post numbers similar to last season (with more touchdowns). Project for at least 90 receptions, 1,250 yards, and 9 touchdowns and draft him as a WR1.

Is Selvin Young the next 1,000 yard Denver running back?

Yes. In fact, Young has projected a 2,000 yard year for himself. And though I’m not so sure he’ll be able to pull that one off, I must admit that Young showed a lot of promise last season, and he looks like a prototypical Denver back. I expect him to build off of last season’s success and finish as a top 10 fantasy running back. Project for Young to take over as the team’s full time back: at least 300 carries for 1,300 rushing yards and 10 combined touchdowns. Also, expect him to play a nice role in the passing game, grabbing at least 40 receptions for 300 yards.

How will the Broncos finish this year?

Most of the AFC West is rebuilding and the Broncos main hurdle will be getting past San Diego. I don’t expect the franchise to do so this year, but I still anticipate a solid 10-6 season.

How much will the Packers be affected by the retirement of Brett Favre?

That’s tough to say, but here’s the good news: it wasn’t abrupt and the Packers have been working for years now to ensure that his retirement wouldn’t destroy the franchise. In fact, Mike McCarthy has been quoted as saying this year’s team is better than last year’s. And that may be true, but the Packers are going to be a different team without Favre. They’re going to run more, avoid taking risks, and essentially be a conservative (and consistent) offense, not that there’s anything wrong with that.

Is Aaron Rodgers ready to step in and fill Favre’s shoes?

I don’t think anyone is expecting Rodgers to be the next Brett Favre. Most fans recognize that this will be his first full season of play and he hasn’t exactly had a lot of on-field time. Favre didn’t miss a start since 1992 and the Packers rarely took him out of games, meaning Rodgers has been left with precious few opportunities to work on his game. That said, he looked good and well-adjusted in preseason last year and against the Cowboys; he didn’t have happy feet and he looked comfortable in the pocket.

What are his projections?

Expect Rodgers to throw for 3,100 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions if he stays healthy for 16 games and draft him as a backup. But remember, his past two seasons have been ended by injuries, despite having thrown just 59 career passes, so adjust his ranking accordingly.

Is Ryan Grant going to continue what he started?

Grant was simply brilliant last season and I fully expect him to have another good season. I’m not sure he’ll produce like he did, but he’ll have a good season nonetheless. The Packers have a good offensive line and will be running the ball more frequently than they did last season. Expect Grant to rush for 1,250 yards, 12 touchdowns, and catch 45 passes for 200 yards. Draft him late in the first round.

What about the Packers receivers?

Green Bay has one of the strongest receiving corps in the NFL, and Mike McCarthy has been brilliant in taking advantage of them. Greg Jennings is the speedy playmaker and solid WR2; Donald Driver is the veteran with the best hands and is a good WR3; both James Jones and rookie Jordy Nelson are wild cards who could have decent seasons and one will end up a good fantasy backup, perhaps both. Green Bay will run a lot of 4 wide receiver sets this season to spread out defenses, so both could have good years.

Anyone else I should know about?

Absolutely: Donald Lee. Lee was a big surprise last season and he’s poised to have anther good season as the Packers tight end. Project for 50 receptions, 650 receiving yards, and 6 touchdowns, and draft him as a starter.

What are your projections for the Packers?

I expect Green Bay to have a good season again, finishing 10-6 and in the postseason. I never know what’s going on in Ted Thompson’s head, but he’s proving himself to be one of the best GM’s in pro football. And Mike McCarthy was, in my opinion, the best coach in the NFL last season.

Both are valid questions. At this point, I recommend drafting LaDainian Tomlinson first overall (again) because he is so consistent. He’s been a top three running back since 2002, his second NFL season, and he plays for one of the best teams in the AFC.

But don’t misunderstand me: I don’t know which running back will wind up the best of ‘08. In truth, I envy more the owner who ends up with “All Day” because his potential is so tremendous. He broke 200 yards twice during the season last year and set the NFL’s single-game rushing record with a 296 yard performance week nine.

Despite just nine starts and only 238 carries, Peterson finished second in the NFL in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. His yards-per-game average was easily the best in the NFL - and this one of the most under-utilized players in the league last year. Minnesota coach Brad Childress caught a lot of heat for not giving Peterson more touches, but AP still managed to nab rookie of the year honors.

Consider this: Peterson had 77 fewer carries than LaDainian Tomlinson but wound up with just 133 fewer yards. Had Peterson maintained his yard per carry average with 77 more carries, he would have gained 1,775 yards and scored 16 touchdowns.

Peterson also benefits from being in a run-first offense will a great offensive line. The Vikings ranked 6th in rush attempts last season and first in yards, yards per attempt, and touchdowns.

And there is some danger in drafting LT. While I’m not predicting it, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Tomlinson break down this season. He has 2,365 career carries and nearly 3,000 total touches, having carried at least 313 times every season since entering the league in 2001. He’s had three 400-touch seasons and has never had fewer than 375 in any given year. Suffice to say, he’s been a workhorse back for the Chargers for seven seasons. And that may mean he’s destined to break down sometime in the near future. Whether it will be this season or next season or two years from now, it’s hard to say. But that’s the one pitfall that could end up biting owners who draft Tomlinson first.

Again, I think LT should be the first person to come off every draft board. He’s the most consistent fantasy performer this side of Peyton Manning at the most important position of the (fantasy) game. In honesty, if you walk away from your draft with Tomlinson or Peterson you’re going to be very happy, and the 2008 season will be a very exciting one to watch.

Happy drafting!