The Green Bay Packers are 5-5, but the record doesn’t do justice to the team’s talent. It’s hardly a stretch to suggest the Packers could quite easily have three more wins when considering three losses were within three points.

Unfortunately, talent can carry a team just so far. It doesn’t matter that Aaron Rodgers is a fantastic quarterback or that Green Bay has one of the league’s most underrated defenses; when it’s all said and done, the record is what counts. Nothing else.

Of course, there is some very good news for cheeseheads reading this. Green Bay might have a 5-5 record, but that’s enough to keep it atop the NFC North. Minnesota and Chicago have the same record, but both teams are shaky at best. It’s heartening to consider that the Packers are 3-1 in division games, the most recent victory being a rout over the Bears. It is also worth noting that Green Bay’s one division loss was a one-point loss at Minnesota, a game that Green Bay would have won if Adrian Peterson wasn’t so darn impressive and Mason Crosby had nailed the game-winning field goal.

Are the Packers good enough to make a run in the postseason, assuming they get that far? Well, it’s a bit complicated.

Green Bay is not without weaknesses, but some have been a bit exaggerated. For example, many pundits are quick to point out that the offense has had trouble running the ball. While this is true to some degree, it’s a flawed argument. Consider Ryan Grant’s last six starts: in each he rushed for at least 75 yards. And in three of Green Bay’s last four games he found his way to the endzone. His yard per carry average this season is also deceptive; he has kept it at a level of 4.3 or higher in his last three starts.

Watching the Packers, I’ve picked up on two more troubling observations. First, Green Bay’s offense moves the ball down the field but sometimes has trouble scoring touchdowns; it seems that Coach Mike McCarthy has no problem settling for field goals. That wouldn’t be a big issue but it has kept the Packers from pulling away and winning several games. The most obvious of these was the loss against Tennessee. Green Bay’s offense had 390 yards but scored just one touchdown. Green Bay was able to move the ball; in fact, all three of the field-goal scoring drives were of at least 51 yards. Not scoring touchdowns allowed Tennessee to hang with Green Bay in a game that could have been won by the Packers.

Second, Green Bay has an outstanding defense. I don’t know anyone who would deny that. But near the end of close games, fans can witness it changing its gameplan to avoid giving up anything too big. This “prevent defense” cost them victories against both Tennessee and Minnesota. In the former, Green Bay couldn’t stop Kerry Collins from driving the Titans straight down the field at the end of the fourth quarter, nor could the Packers stop the run in overtime. Against Minnesota, Adrian Peterson picked the Packers apart in the fourth quarter. Somehow - I’m not certain how this could happen - the Packers appeared to forget Peterson is the Vikings’ best player.

To return to the original question, can the Packers make a run in the postseason? Absolutely, but it will take the right coaching. The defense is loaded with ball hawks in the secondary and has little trouble forcing turnovers. On offense, as pointed out earlier, the Packers running game has been improving in recent weeks, whilst Aaron Rodgers may be considered the best first year starter in the NFL this season in not one of the league’s best starters. Green Bay’s fate this season is heavily dependent on Mike McCarthy. He has been given a great group of athletes - now it is his responsibility to steer them to a championship.

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On a side note that is completely unrelated to this post, I’d like to thank everyone who has read this blog. I looked at my profile today and noticed that my blogs have drawn one million views.

Thank you to everyone who has taken the time to read my thoughts on the NFL and fantasy football.

Sincerely,
Tom Van Wyhe

The euphoria for Packers fans is over. Time for reality to kick in.

After a 2-0 start to the season, the Packers have stumbled offensively the past two games and now sit at .500. Aaron Rodgers either separated his shoulder or sprained it - depends on your source. The Packers running backs have gained 94 yards the past two weeks, and the team as a whole has turned the ball over five times. The defense now ranks 23rd in points per game allowed.

Not quite what fans had in mind after seeing the Packers first two games. So what’s going wrong?

First, the Packers offense isn’t scoring enough points. Against the Cowboys the offense found itself in or near the red zone three times in the first three quarters, but scored just nine points. Mason Crosby’s longest field goal was a 38-yarder, which means the Packers were on the 21 yard line when they settled for three points. Had Green Bay scored just one touchdown instead of a field goal on those drives it would have been a much different game.

Second, Aaron Rodgers himself is having some trouble. He doesn’t look as comfortable in the pocket because he’s taking a lot of hits. He was sacked just once in the first two games of the season. Compare that to him being taken down a combined eight times against the Cowboys and Buccaneesr. One hit this weekend left him walking off the field to get checked on by the trainers. Rodgers said it felt as if he separated his shoulder, though Mike McCarthy said today that it was a sprain. (He expects Rodgers to be ready for the Falcons game.)

It’s also hurting the offense that Rodgers has trouble throwing into traffic at times. He looked that way against the Cowboys, almost as if he was afraid to make a mistake. Fans are accustomed to Favre throwing into difficult situations regularly and usually that has led to scores. Instead, the Cowboys would drop seven or eight into coverage and make sure no one was open, while Rodgers struggled to make a decision.

Then he went to the other extreme this week against the Bucs. Granted, his first interception was 100 percent the fault of running back Brandon Jackson, who let the ball bounce off his chest and into the hands of Derrick Brooks. But there were two other passes that could have easily been intercepted, both of which were poor passes, and two more that actually were caught by the defense.

Also, the Packers running game has been largely inneffective in the past two weeks. Ryan Grant and Jackson have combined for 94 yards on 32 carries, dipping to just 20 yards on 16 carries against Tampa Bay this past Sunday. That’s just a bit below 3.0 yards per carry on the season.

But here’s the good news. Both losses have been relatively close, which is a good thing for a team that is losing turnover battles by landslides. It means that the defense has been relatively strong, no matter what the numbers say. Turnovers oftentimes mean that there is a tired defense on the field, good field position for the opposing offense, and a shift in momentum. Consider: against the Buccaneers the Packers turned the ball over twice in the second quarter; that resulted in 10 points because the Bucs only had to drive 32 yards and 27 yards. On the same token, the Packers aren’t taking advantage of turnovers enough. Against Tampa Bay, the Packers defense forced three interceptions and a punt in the third quarter while allowing zero points. What did the Packers offense turn that into? One touchdown, two punts, and a fumble. That the Packers have lost the past two weeks by relatively close margins is a good sign.

So what’s to come for the Packers? I think as the season goes on the team will start focusing more attention on running the football to keep defenses from focusing on Rodgers and dropping seven or eight into coverage. Rodgers himself should also grow more comfortable in the offense and with his receivers. He already loves throwing the ball to Greg Jennings (who is arguably the NFL’s most dynamic wide receiver this season), but he should also start spreading the ball around more. The defense is there; Green Bay just needs to start getting that offense jumpstarted again; expect McCarthy to make that a big priority and for the team to respond.

The NFL season is now fast approaching, which means your fantasy football draft is probably right around the corner. To better prepare you for that, I’m releasing my fantasy football pre-draft rankings. Remember, these are to be used as a guide on draft day, so feel free to move players around and stray from the list when draft day actually arrives.

This is part two in a series devoted to running backs. Part one is here.

If you missed it, be sure to check out the series devoted to quarterbacks, too. Part one (1-5). Part two (6-10). Part three (11-15). Part four (16-20).

6. Frank Gore - The San Francisco 49ers might not have a very good offense, but they certainly don’t lack talent at running back. Frank Gore, who rushed for 1,102 yards on 260 carries last season, is projected to improve his numbers this season, with the addition of Mike Martz as the team’s offensive coordinator. Martz should improve the passing game to some degree, thus opening up some opportunities for Gore, especially near the goal line. The Niners’ running back was brilliant in 2006, when he rushed for 1,695 yards on 312 carries, and he should have a season reminiscent of those numbers.

7. Larry Johnson - Larry Johnson might have been disappointing last season, frustrating owners in the weeks leading up to his injury, but nonetheless showed signs of his former self. Johnson was on a path to a breakdown, after having carried the ball 752 times in the two seasons before his injury, so it came as no surprise when his season was cut short after just eight games. But there were games - a few in which he broke 100 yards rushing - when he showed glimpses that make me think this will be a very big season for him. He also played a larger role in the passing game last season and was on pace for more than 60 receptions. Johnson will available in the second half of the first round, perhaps after a quarterback is picked. To me, he’s a solid selection who will bounce back this season with a big year.

8. Ryan Grant - Anyone out there know who Grant was before last season? If so, did you know how good he was? Probably not. Grant, who shocked the fantasy world with a brilliant second half last season has set himself up to be drafted among the best of his peers this year. Here’s the biggest reason why: the post-Brett Favre Packers are going to run the ball more than they did in the past because the offense’s strength is its line, and the Packers don’t want to put too much pressure on the young Aaron Rodgers. Grant carried just 188 times last season and nearly broke 1,000 rushing yards, scoring 8 touchdowns. Imagine if he repeats that kind of success with 275-300 carries this season. He’s a pretty safe pick with excellent upside.

9. Marion Barber - The Dallas Cowboys had one of the best passing games in football last season, which may be why the running game is sometimes overlooked. But don’t make the mistake of overlooking Barber on draft day. The Cowboys running back has split carries his entire career (and might get a few stolen this season by Felix Jones) but has still maintained himself as a top fantasy back because of his scoring. In the past two seasons he’s scored 28 touchdowns, and last season he carried for more than 950 yards on 204 carries. In fact he’s averaged 4.8 yards per carry each of the past two seasons. Expect a big season from Barber, now that his role in the offense has been increased.

10. Marshawn Lynch - Marshawn Lynch was very impressive last season, his first as an NFL starter. In fact, he probably would have won Rookie of the Year, had Adrian Peterson not been so darn good. The most interesting numbers to note: he started just 13 games and gained over 1,300 total yards, scoring 7 touchdowns. And did I mention he did this while playing for the Buffalo Bills? He’ll be even better this season, and if the Bills can find someone not totally incompetent to throw the football, Lynch’s stock will soar even higher.