Not too long ago I wrote an article essentially guaranteeing the Denver Broncos a spot in the postseason.

I was wrong.

Nothing is locked up for the Broncos, though they do control their own fate and should remain the odd-on favorites to win the AFC West. But with two weeks left in the regular season, there remains a very real opportunity for San Diego to squeeze past Denver and vault itself into the postseason with loads of momentum.

How can the Chargers make the postseason? Simple. If Phillip Rivers and Co. win next week (a tough road game against Tampa Bay) and Denver drops the ball at home against Buffalo, the two will face each other week 17 to decide the division. The Broncos lost this weekend by a blowout 20-point margin to the Carolina Panthers, while San Diego looked slightly more impressive, squeaking out a win against the Kansas City Chiefs. Assuming week 17 is the clincher, San Diego will enter the game with a three game win streak while Denver limped through two consecutive losses. In that game San Diego will have at least one factor in its favor besides momentum: homefield advantage.

Now, how likely is this scenario? Honestly, it’s tough to decipher the Chargers or Broncos at this point. San Diego has won its last two games against poor teams (Kansas City and Oakland), and prior to those wins it had lost three consecutive games to quality opponents (Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, and Atlanta), albeit by close margins (an average of just over 3 points per contest). Denver, meanwhile, is among the most inconsistent teams in the NFL, losing games it most certainly should win (see week 12’s thrashing at the hands of Oakland), defeating quality opponents (week 13 against the Jets, for example), and simply following the odds in other games, just for good measure (i.e., week 14’s win over Kansas City).

It’s easy to draw parallels between the two. Without stating the obvious (Cutler and Rivers, *cough*), both teams have a lot of talent and firepower on offense, but neither has a good running game on offense or a solid defense. The Broncos have dealt with more than their share of running back injuries this season, whereas the Chargers’ LaDainian Tomlinson has simply disappointed. Defensively, injuries have hurt both clubs. San Diego lost linebacker Shawn Merriman, arguably the best in the league when healthy, for the season, while Denver has been without a healthy Champ Bailey, considered by many to be the league’s best cornerback, for weeks.

Both teams can be considered disappointments this season. It’s a bit backward to consider the AFC West’s division leader has been outscored by 40 points this season, while its second place team, which is two games back, no less, has outscored opponents by 45. The Broncos have scored 42 fewer points on offense and allowed 55 more on defense, in direct comparison with the Chargers. The Chargers have even managed a better division record, losing just one AFC West game, week two at Denver, by one point.

I’m not suggesting the Chargers are a better team than the Broncos. No, if that was true they would be leading the division. God knows they’ve been given plenty of opportunities to make up ground or pass the Broncos, but it simply hasn’t happened. One of these two will make the postseason, though neither franchise stands much hope once there. Which team is anyone’s guess, but really, does it matter?

With Philip Rivers throwing well enough to lead the NFL in several statistical categories, it’s easy to forget that he’s throwing those passes to someone on the team and, in turn, that player - or those players - are also both contributing and benefiting considerably. One such player is Vincent Jackson, who leads the team in receptions this season.

Jackson finished 2007 with 41 receptions for 623 yards and 3 touchdowns, but this season he should destroy those numbers. Already, Jackson has 22 receptions for 436 yards and 2 touchdowns, putting him on pace for around 60 catches, 1,150 receiving yards, and 5-6 touchdowns.

But what I most like about Jackson is his consistency. His catches and yards haven’t varied considerably this season and he’s finished with less than 50 receiving yards in just one game (week one, when he had 47 yards). What’s most intriguing, too, is that he doesn’t get a lot of catches. In only two games this season has Jackson finished with more than 3 receptions, yet he’s 13th in the NFL in receiving yards per game this season.

That inevitably leads to discussing his 19.8 yards per catch average, which, interestingly enough, is only 3rd on the team among players with at least 5 catches this season. The other notable receiver is Chris Chambers, who has 5 touchdowns and just 11 receptions.

Jackson has, however, averaged at least 24 yards per catch in three of his last four starts. And last week against New England he got a lot of mileage out of five receptions, gaining 134 yards and scoring a touchdown.

Key Points

• Philip Rivers loves to throw him the ball; Jackson leads the team in receptions
• Jackson is one of the few receivers in the NFL to lead his team in catches and average nearly 20 yards per catch
• He doesn’t score many touchdowns (he has just 2), but he’s very consistent and usually finishes with 50-75 receiving yards

The San Diego Chargers are, without a doubt, one of the league’s greatest disappointments this season. It is perhaps not because this team is struggling, but instead because it continues to excel on offense, only to lose my small margins. In any case, here are 10 things you ought to know about the San Diego Chargers this season.

1. The Chargers have not lost this season by a margin of more than seven points, and two of the team’s losses were within two points. Carolina won week one, thanks to a late-game drive by Jake Delhomme that put the Panthers up by two. Denver won the next week in a similar scenario, though the Broncos took the lead after a two point conversion put them up by one.

2. San Diego has scored one less point and allowed one less point than Denver this season. The Broncos, however, have a two game lead on the Chargers and double the winning percentage. Had the Chargers defeated the Broncos week two, they would be technically ahead of the Broncos in the division.

3. Still, don’t feel sorry for the Chargers; their defense has let them down this season. Without Shawn Merriman, San Diego has the 24th ranked scoring defense and their pass defense is ranked dead last in the NFL, allowing 265.6 yards per game.

4. Philip Rivers began the season with three consecutive three touchdown performances. He has since thrown one touchdown in each of the Chargers past two games, despite no significant drop in pass attempts. His completion percentage, however, has dipped below 60 for the past two weeks, as he has completed just 27-of-53.

5. I’m sorry if you drafted LaDainian Tomlinson first overall in your fantasy draft this season. LT, who has not rushed for fewer than 1,200 yards in any season of his career, has 331 rushing yards this season, putting him on pace for 1,059 yards this season.

6. Tomlinson does, however, have four rushing touchdowns. Unfortunately, he has scored in just two games. At least he’s on pace to gain over 1,300 yards from scrimmage - it would be the first time since his rookie season that he netted fewer than 1,800 yards in a season.

7. Inconsistency has been his greatest barrier: LT rushed for more than 90 yards in two games this season … but in two others he rushed for less than 40. His yard per carry average exceeded 4.5 in two games … but in the others it’s been below 3.0.

8. Antonio Gates is not the Chargers best fantasy receiver this season. At least not at this point. Gates has 16 catches for 217 yards and 3 touchdowns, but teammate Chris Chambers has turned his 11 catches into 226 yards and 5 scores. In other words, Chambers averages over 20 yards per catch and he scores every other time he hangs onto the football.

9. The Chargers have a +4 turnover ratio, putting them behind only the Tennessee Titans and Washington Redskins. What do the Chargers not have in common with those teams? Winning. The combined record of Tennessee and Washington is 9-1.

10. San Diego has been outgained in three key measurables: rushing yards (567-493), passing yards (1,328-1,133), and first downs (113-84). It is surprising, then, that the Chargers have outscored opponents, 148-129.

When the Denver Broncos take the field this Sunday against division rival San Diego the team will have an opportunity to show fans whether week one’s monster victory over the Raiders was because, well, it was the Raiders, or because this team really is that good. One thing that should certainly help: the return of Brandon Marshall. Last season’s leading receiver, Marshall is a tremendous assett to this offense in his role as the team’s starter. And after watching Eddie Royal tear apart the Raiders secondary, I can’t wait to see what this offense is capable of doing against a tougher opponent.

San Diego is 0-1, after the Carolina Panthers put together a last minute drive to defeat the AFC West champs. The Chargers are also without linebacker/playmaker Shawn Merriman, whose season ended when he opted for surgery instead of risking long-term damage to his knee. A smart move for sure, but it does make this Chargers defense a bit weaker.

Still, this is an excellent football team. The offense is capable of scoring a lot of points, with Philip Rivers at the helm and LaDainian Tomlinson carrying the football. The key this season will be consistency. Rivers didn’t have a lot of that last year, and it hurt the team some weeks. He looked good against the Panthers and, for San Diego’s sake, hopefully he can keep it up.

This weekend, the Chargers will face another tough opponent when they take the field against the Broncos. Both teams are more than capable of putting points on the board. They also share some similarities, with young quarterbacks and primary receivers on offense. (Both also have veteran wide receivers - Brandon Stokley and Chris Chambers - who contribute.)

Though it’s only week two, I think it’s fair to say that is a big game, especially for the Chargers. If San Diego starts the season 0-2, with a loss to the division leader, it will be an uphill battle the rest of the season. From Denver’s perspective, however, a 2-0 start to the season, with two division wins, is how any team would like to start the season. It’s especially important because both of these teams figure to contend for the division title at the end of the season. Getting a leg up early would be nice for either franchise. Consider it in baseball terms: it would be like the Red Sox starting the season with a 20-game losing streak while the Yankees begin with 20 straight wins. Tough start if you’re the Sox in that equation.

From a fantasy football perspective, this is going to be a fun game for owners of either team’s players. The Chargers have a solid defense, but, as I noted earlier, a key component is missing. And though Denver was able to contain the Raiders, Oakland had a number of head-scratching, “what were they thinking?” moments. Expect some solid scoring from both teams in this one.

(After reading this, see my colleague’s argument for Adrian Peterson)

There is no question that if given the chance, I would take Ladainian Tomlinson over Adrian Peterson.  Why?  Because LT has history on his side.  But even if he didn’t, he has more opportunity to produce than Peterson does does.

Before getting into the differences, it is enlightening to examine the similarities.  First, both running backs are highly talented.  Both have the ability to not only run the ball, but are excellent pass catchers.  Second, they each have a top-rate offensive line behind which to run (no changes from last year’s starting lines).  Third, both teams have about the same strength of schedule when considering the rush defense of the teams they will face.  In fact, both will face the Colts, Panthers, Saints, Buccaneers, and Falcons.  Fourth, of their first five games, three are away.  Finally, they both have their bye week right in the middle of the season.  If you truly want to compare who is better, this is the season to do it.

Now for the differences all of which support my conclusion that LT should be taken over Peterson. 

- First, LT has a much better quarterback (you can easily compare their performance head-to-head using Sports Data Hub’s data analysis tool), which prevents the defense from focusing all of its energies on stopping the running game.

- Second, LT’s first five games are against weak rush defenses, allowing on average 137.5 rushing yards and one rushing TD per game.  Peterson’s first five games are against rush defenses allowing on average 103 rushing yards and ½ rushing TD per game.  Momentum is everything.  LT will be off to a great start and Peterson will be seen as struggling.

- This leads to the third difference: with Peterson struggling, the Vikings are more likely to give runs to Chester Taylor, a dependable backup who has scored 13 TDs and run over 2000 yards over the past two seasons.  LT’s backup Michael Turner scored 3 TDs and ran just over 800 yards during the past two seasons and is now in Atlanta. (You can see both running back’s performance over the past 3 years using Sports Data Hub’s data analysis tool).  I am sorry to say that Darren Sproles is no Michael Turner.  LT said just last week, “In my mind I’m going to have to feel like I have to stay in the game.”San Diego Union-Tribune, July 31, 2008.

- Fourth, this is LT’s second year under Head Coach Norv Turner and it took LT about 4 games last year to get acclimated.  This year everyone is on the same page.

- Finally, it is the final three games that count in fantasy, and while the difference is not as dramatic as the first five games, LT still has the edge with the last three facing rush defenses allowing on average 128 rushing yards and a rushing TD per game.  Peterson will face rush defenses allowing on average 113 rushing yards and a rushing TD per game.

While I do not believe AP will regress during his second year, it is not uncommon for a rookie running back to have a great first year and then fail miserably during his second (e.g Frank Gore, Cadillac Williams).  Even if I could foretell Peterson would continue to play like a star, looking at each player’s situation and the teams they will be playing against, I would still take LaDainian.

(If you are still not sure, take a look at my colleague’s argument for Adrian Peterson)

(After you read this, take a look at my colleague’s argument for LT and decide who you’ll draft number one.)

When it comes to making the first overall pick in fantasy football, one wants to walk away with the best available player. This season the talking heads are torn between LaDainian Tomlinson - aka Mr. Consistency - and Adrian Peterson, the rookie phenom who finished second in the NFL in rushing yards last season.

Now, I love LaDainian Tomlinson. I think he’s a great running back who will finish among the top three overall this season. But I must admit, if I have the number one pick in the draft, I’m taking Adrian Peterson.

Conventional wisdom might suggest I do otherwise. After all, this is only Peterson’s second season whereas Tomlinson has been among the best in the NFL for many seasons. Still, I believe that Peterson’s potential is greater than Tomlinson’s and the risk-reward ratio is too tempting to pass.

Here’s why.

The Minnesota Vikings have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, perhaps the best. I don’t think anyone will argue that. That’s one of the key reasons for Peterson’s success last season, and Chester Taylor’s success in the past two. Also, this offensive line will be able to protect quarterback Tarvaris Jackson, someone who is almost certain to be better than he was last year.

That brings me to my second point: a lot of critics are going to say that the Chargers have a much better passing game than the Vikings, and that’s true, but only to a certain extent. Minnesota’s passing game has struggled in the past several years for two reasons: bad quarterbacks and bad receivers.

That changes this year.

Minnesota’s Tarvaris Jackson will be playing in his second complete season, meaning he has more experience than he did last season. He should be more comfortable in the pocket, and the running game, led by Peterson, will force defenses to think run before pass. That should open things up in the passing game. And did I mention that the team acquired the talented Bernard Berrian this offseason? Berrian instantly adds two things this offense has lacked: a deep threat and someone who defensive secondaries will actually need to pay attention to.

And let’s be perfectly honest: San Diego doesn’t have a great passing game, either. Philip Rivers was one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks in the NFL last season, frustrating fantasy owners with multiple “off” weeks and annoying opposing fans with his taunts along the way.

My third point is this: Peterson was phenomenal last season. He managed to rush for 1,341 yards on just 238 carries, averaging almost a full yard per carry more than Tomlinson. And he injured his knee during the second half of the season, meaning that he could have accomplished much more if he had stayed healthy. Imagine if he does this season. Scary.

Finally, here’s why it’s a risk to draft Tomlinson. The San Diego Chargers running back has carried the ball at least 313 times every season of his career. This season the team will rely on him even more with the absence of Michael Turner. And that’s just the number of carries he’ll handle. Let’s not forget that Tomlinson plays a very key role in the Chargers passing game; he’s also had at least 50 receptions every season of his career. In fact last season was the first time in his career he’s handled fewer than 390 touches in any given season.

This scares me because it means he’s close to breaking down. I realize that Tomlinson is a tough running back, one of the toughest in the NFL. But he’s not invincible. He has over 2,900 career touches; only two other active backs - Edgerrin James (29) and Warrick Dunn (32) - have more. Tomlinson will be asked to handle close to 400 touches this season, too. Will he be able to handle it?

Now, I don’t think you can go wrong with either player this year. But if you’re asking me which player to take first, I’m going to tell you who I think is poised for the best season. And that player is Adrian Peterson.

(Think I’m right? You should take a look at my colleague’s argument for LT and decide for yourself who you’ll draft number one.)

LaDainian Tomlinson - The Pros

Tomlinson has been one of the most consistent fantasy football picks the game has come across in some time. He blends rushing and receiving to the point that he can make a case that he’s the league’s best player. He’s been the Chargers’ leading rusher for the past seven seasons (since he was drafted as a rookie, actually) and he’s finished lower than 2nd (twice he was 1st) on the team in receptions just once in the past seven seasons. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter what your league scoring is: Tomlinson has been the best fantasy player in the NFL for a very long time now.

Also consider: he’s led the league in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns each of the past two seasons and he’s finished the season with at least 1,750 yards from scrimmage six consecutive years, now. And did I forget to mention that he’s also thrown six touchdown passes in the past three seasons? His career passer rating is a sparkling 154.4 (league max: 158.3). Oh, and he set a scoring record in 2006 when he found the endzone 31 times.

Yeah, he’s a safe pick.

LaDainian Tomlinson - The Cons

Yes, there are a few cons to consider. First, let’s remember that Tomlinson has been the heart and soul of the Chargers’ offense for arguably seven years, and he’s missed just one start. That means he’s taken his shots and kept playing at a position where he’s taking a hit on almost every play, usually from more than a few players when he’s carrying the ball. And he’s handled at least 313 carries every season of his career (2365 career carries - 3rd among active players), meaning he may be headed for a breakdown.

Yes, it’s cliche to be concerned that a player may be headed for a breakdown every time they handle a lot of carries, but remember, Tomlinson has also caught his fair share of passes. Think about this: he’s had at least 375 touches every season of his career and at least 400 in 5 of his seven pro seasons. Plus, at age 29, Tomlinson (if he’s like most backs) has already peaked and should be seeing a drop in his numbers.

Let’s Review …

The Pros

• Consistency, baby. No one’s been more consistent.
• Versatility. Tomlinson does it all - he runs the ball, catches the ball, and, you guessed it, throws the ball. And he does all three better than just about anyone else in football.
• He’s always a league leader. And he’s been the best in the NFL each of the past two seasons.

The Cons

• He may be on track for a breakdown. No one handles the ball as much as Tomlinson does on a yearly basis and stays healthy for an entire career.
• He may have peaked. The prime age for most running backs is around 26-27, so Tomlinson may soon be seeing a significant drop in production.

Adrian Peterson - The Pros

Peterson may have played just one season, but, boy, was it special. 2007’s NFL Rookie of the Year finished second in the league in rushing (behind LT), despite carrying the ball just 238 times. But though his totals might not show him being a league leader, no one averaged more yards per game than did Peterson who ran for about 95.8 per week.

This season the Vikings are better. Tarvaris Jackson has a season’s worth of experience under his belt, and he’s been dealt a new receiver to work with: Bernard Berrian, the best receiver Minnesota has seen since Randy Moss was catching passes from Daunte Culpepper. And as for that offensive line - it’s one of the best in the NFL.

And let’s not forget this detail: he started just nine games last year. Imagine if Peterson had carried 300 times last season, keeping his incredible 5.6 yard per carry average; he’d have led the NFL with nearly 1,700 yards rushing. Now imagine if he had carried the same number of times as league leader Clinton Portis (who handled 325); his yardage would have hit well over 1,800.

Peterson carried the ball 20+ times in only six games last season (much to the dissatisfaction of fans), and in two of those games he broke 200 yards on the ground. Imagine what will happen this season when coach Brad Childress cuts him loose for an entire season.

Defenses should already be afraid.

Adrian Peterson - The Cons

One season. That’s all we’ve seen from Peterson, meaning there’s no guarantee he repeats. And though I mentioned earlier that the Vikings improved their passing game, it bears mentioning that I have little faith in that facet of the offense. This is not a team that will burn defenses through the air; this is a team that will be forced to pound it out on the ground.

And as for Peterson’s numbers last year; on the season, they were brilliant. Game-by-game? Not so much. Peterson may have had six 100-yard performances, but it should be noted that more than 38 percent of his yards for the season came in two weeks. And his yard per carry average dipped below 4.0 in six games, bottoming out when he carried the ball 14 times for 3 yards (0.2 yard per carry average) in week 11. In fact, in his final four games of the season (weeks 11-14) he carried the ball 54 times for 154 yards and just two touchdowns; that’s less than three yards per carry.

Lastly, let’s not forget that Peterson had just 19 receptions last season, scoring just once when he caught a pass. He doesn’t have the versatility one might want from a fantasy back; especially if you’re in a PPR league.

Let’s Review …

The Pros

• He was Rookie of the Year for a reason. He posted fantastic numbers, despite just nine starts.
• His supporting cast is improving. The Vikings added Bernard Berrian and Jackson will likely be better this season.
• The Vikings have a phenomenal offensive line. Matt Birk, Steve Hutchinson, and Bryant McKinnie are among the best at their respective positions.
  

The Cons

• He’s played just one season. Translation: we don’t know if he’s a one hit wonder or if he’s poised to be a consistent player. Speaking of which …
• He had some bad games. We’ll forgive him, but his inconsistency - especially near the end of the season - make me wonder if he’s worth the top pick in a fantasy draft.
• He wasn’t a factor in the passing game. He caught just 19 passes during the course of the season, so you may want to knock his value down a bit if you’re in a PPR league.

The Ultimate Verdict: If you’re looking for Mr. Consistency - someone I can promise will have a great season - go with LaDainian Tomlinson. He’s been the league’s best for a long time now, and you can’t go wrong. But if you want to shake things up and take a shot, pick Peterson. He won’t have a bad season and his upside is scary good.

My Pick: I’m a consistency guy, myself, so I’ll take Tomlinson. He’s the sure thing, someone who’s a lock to finish in the top three in fantasy scoring. But I’ll be watching out for the owner in my league who drafts Peterson number two. And if I was picking two and Peterson fell to me? I’d be psyched.

won in the postseason - maybe Norv Turner was a smart acquisition -  for the first time since 1994, when the team went to the Super Bowl (and subsequently lost in one of the most mismatched Super Bowls in NFL history). The team’s offense is always sharp and should improve every season as Philip Rivers gains experience. Plus, with one of the best defenses in the NFL already assembled, why not trade for one of the best defensive ends in the league, one who would find the situation ideal?

The obvious question is how Taylor would fit. The Chargers already have a pair of solid outside linebackers in Shawn Merriman and Shaun Phillips, so Taylor would likely continue playing on the line or there would need to be some shifts in the linebacking corps. In a 3-4 defensive scheme, most teams like to have bigger ends to counter the lack of players on the line of scrimmage. Taylor, who weighs in at 255, is not necessarily an ideal fit at defensive end.

Still, this is a story to watch.

***For those of you wondering, I may never actually stop making references to Taylor’s role on the hit ABC series

First Impressions - The Chargers didn’t have a lot to work with - just one day One Pick and five total picks - but they made the most of the draft. And considering this has been one of the best teams in the NFL and a perrenial favorite to win the AFC West the past couple years, there weren’t a lot of holes to fill.

After Michael Turner bolted, predictably, in free agency, the Chargers used the draft to nab a couple backs. Hester isn’t a true fullback, but is a tremendous asset in short yardage situations, while Marcus Thomas appears to be a career backup/third down specialist. Then again, both of these guys are going to be in San Diego where one running back garners the headlines and handles the ball - LaDainian Tomlinson.

The biggest name the Chargers landed was Antoine Cason, a very athletic defensive back. He hails from a family of athletes (his father and two cousins played in the NFL while his brother ran track in college) and will be productive in his role as a nickel corner.

Altogether, this was a pretty good draft for the Chargers. 

Fantasy Impact - The impact of this draft to fantasy footballers is very limited. The Chargers already had a solid offense last year, but the passing game was inconsistent. Unfortunately, nothing of note was done here that will affect the offense to the least degree. 

Safety - Marlon McCree was disappointing and the strong side is looking weak. And after the successful drafting of Eric Weddle last season, the team would be wise to give him a solid teammate to play opposite in the defensive backfield.

Tackle - The right side of the line isn’t anything to write home about and the overall depth isn’t impressive. Improving the line is essential for the offense’s continued success.

Wide Receiver - The Chargers are still without a standout wide receiver. Antonio Gates gives the quarterback options, but a true number one receiver would be nice. Even having someone to play behind Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers could improve the passing game.

Number to Know - 6 - The number of games the defense forced four or more turnovers. The team’s turnover ratio in the regular season (+24) and postseason (+4) was the best in the NFL.