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Posts Tagged ‘San Diego Chargers’

Philip Rivers: King of the Long Ball

Thursday, January 28th, 2010

Every time I watched the Chargers play, it always amazed me how often Philip Rivers hooked up with one of his receivers for a deep pass. Lots of QBs pile up big numbers because their receivers gain YAC but it always seems that with the Chargers, most of their yardage comes from when the ball is in the air (Sproles not withstanding). Thus, I tracked down the stats of all of the playoff QBs’ numbers when they threw a pass 30 or more yards.
It’s important to note that these are not 30+ yard pass plays but rather only plays in which the ball was in the air for 30 or more yards. Here are the yardage results on these plays as well as the number of 30+ yard pass completions for each playoffs QB:

Rivers’ efficiency in throwing the deep ball is unparalleled; in fact, McNabb and Romo were the only QBs who had more 30+ yard completions than Rivers had 40+ yard completions (7). It certainly helps to have a pair of 6′5″ receivers who can go up and pull down the pass but you still have to be accurate enough to put the receiver in such a position. Much was made of Rivers’ funky throwing motion when coming out of NC State, but none of that should matter for any QB as long as he can put the ball where it needs to be.

When you look closer at his stats, you see that Rivers even has the chance to improve upon his average of 8.75 yards per attempt as now he doesn’t have to throw those 6-yard out routes to Chris Chambers just to keep his morale up.  Thru the first half of the season (with Chambers), Rivers averaged 8.19 yards YPA but during the last half of the season (without Chambers), Rivers averaged 9.48 YPA.  If he can maintain that 9.48 average over an entire season, then Rivers will have the third highest YPA in a single season since 1954.  Chambers’ mere presence in the lineup seemed to negatively affect Rivers; here’s how Rivers’ stats improved once Chambers was released:

Looking ahead to 2010, Philip Rivers will make for a great draft pick for those that play in leagues that award bonus points to big plays.  It wasn’t like this was a one-year phenomenon as in 2008 Rivers had 10 pass completions of at least 30 yards and led the NFL in yards per pass attempt.  It is clear that the Chargers are a pass-first team now and LT, Sproles, or whomever they draft will take a backseat to the passing offense for the foreseeable future.

Vince Young: Fantasy-Worthy the Rest of the Way?

Friday, November 27th, 2009

Installing Vince Young in your fantasy football lineup during the most critical part of the season isn’t going to make your team turn into the fantasy equivalent of the ’99 Rams or ’07 Patriots – just look at Young’s fantasy points-per-week on the graph below – but that doesn’t mean he can’t be at least somewhat beneficial.

True, he has thrown for over 175 yards just once in his last four starts, and has not thrown for multiple touchdowns in any of them, but at this point in the season, those fantasy owners who are in need of a quarterback for the fantasy playoffs have probably already made due with a lesser player at that position anyway, and instead have leaned on the strengths of their running backs and wideouts. Essentially, if you need a player like Young, you’re just looking for him not to kill you.

And any fantasy football owner who has used Young before is familiar with the pain he can cause. In 2007, for example, in his second season and with fairly big expectations after his rookie of the year campaign in 2006, he didn’t throw for 200 or more yards until Week 10, threw for multiple touchdowns in only three contests, and had more interceptions than touchdown passes in nine different games.

But the 2009 version of Vince Young is a seemingly different player, and one that needn’t be completely ignored by fantasy enthusiasts. Part of the reason for that is his match-ups the rest of the way. First of all, he has four home games over the next five weeks, including three straight at home from Weeks 14-16, which are dates that make up the fantasy playoffs in most leagues. But starting this week, really only two of his five match-ups that remain in the fantasy season could be deemed unfavorable – Week 13 against the Colts in Indy and Week 16 against the Chargers.

This week, however, he faces the Cardinals, who are just 27th in pass defense, and 18th (tied) in passing scores allowed. He follows that up with the Indianapolis game before facing St. Louis, Miami and San Diego. The Rams are 24th in the league in pass defense and 18th (tied) in passing touchdowns allowed, while the Dolphins are 22nd in pass defense and 12th in passing touchdowns given up. However, Miami and Oakland are the only two NFL teams to have given up four rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks, and the Rams are one of just seven teams to have allowed at least two rushing scores to opposing signal-callers. On top of that, St. Louis and Miami are both in the bottom-half of the NFL in interceptions.

So, should you count on Young to single-handedly win you a fantasy championship? Of course not. But will he impede you in accomplishing that goal like he has in the past? Not if you use him wisely he won’t.

7 Observations from Week 7

Tuesday, October 27th, 2009
  1. The 49ers’ offensive line cannot create any running lanes.  Frank Gore only ran for 32 yards on 13 carries vs. Houston and he was often stuffed at the line of scrimmage-a sure indication of a poor run-blocking unit.  Some people may ask the question, “How did Gore run for 200 yards vs. Seattle?”  Well that was entirely Gore’s efforts (and Seattle’s lack of effort) as his two big runs were due to poor angles by the Seattle free safety.  What should have been eight yard runs turned into 80 yards runs because the safety was undisciplined.  If you take away those two plays, Frank Gore only has one rush of over 10 yards this season in 50 attempts.  With the insertion of Alex Smith and Michael Crabtree into the starting lineup the 49ers may turn to a more pass-friendly offense which will hurt Gore’s stock even more.
  2. You can blame the Packers’ O-line for Greg Jennings lack of production.  Since Aaron Rodgers is not getting much time in the pocket due to the oncoming rush, the Packers have almost eliminated Rodgers’ 7-step dropbacks.  Those are the plays that Rodgers and Favre hooked up with Jennings with for many of his 21 touchdowns over the last two years.  Since there’s not much time for Rodgers to allow his WRs to run deep routes, the Packers have gone to a true west-coast offense which specializes in short-to-intermediate routes and running after the catch.  That makes Donald Driver the de facto #1 receiver in Green Bay as YAC is pretty much the only statistic that he beat Jennings in over the last two seasons.
  3. LaDainian Tomlinson better not say a peep if he’s pulled during a goal line situation again.  A week after LT displayed his frustration on the sideline after being replaced by Darren Sproles during a goal-to-go situation, LT failed to score on all nine of his attempts inside the seven yard line vs. Kansas City.  For the season, Tomlinson has only scored one TD on 14 attempts inside the 10 yard line.  Even in 2008’s “down year” LT had more success as he scored 7 TDs in 25 attempts within the 10 yard line.Aiken
  4. Sam Aiken, not Julian Edelman, is the Patriots’ #3 wide receiver.  Even though Edelman has more receptions and yards than Aiken, it’s only because he received more opportunities to play when Wes Welker was injured.  Both Welker and Edelman are slot receivers so Edelman naturally advanced to Welker’s slot position when he went down earlier in the year.  Aiken has assumed Joey Galloway’s old position of flanker and even when Edelman returns from his arm injury, he will likely only play when Welker needs a rest or in four-wide sets.  Although Aiken is third in the pecking order among Patriots’ wide receivers, this position has traditionally been very productive as former Patriots Donte Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney combined for 1600 yards and 10 TDs in 2007 and 2008.
  5. The Bears are definitely a pass-first team now and it’s not only because they have Jay Cutler at QB.  The offseason addition of LT Orlando Pace and promotion of RT Chris Williams changed the culture of this Bears’ offense.  Williams is a finesse (pass) blocker and Pace no longer has the acceleration to get to the second level to block LBs.  Also, Greg Olsen has replaced Desmond Clark as starting tight end and while no doubt Olsen is the better receiver, Clark is by far the better run-blocker.  The numbers don’t lie: through six games Matt Forte has 35 fewer carries than what he has through the first six games in 2008.  These changes in mentality and personnel may ultimately make this Bears team better than last year’s, but it may also make Matt Forte a fantasy bust relative to the position he was drafted.
  6. The Dolphins wide receivers scare absolutely no one and Tony Sparano does not seem to notice it.  After running for 80 yards and 3 TDs on his first nine carries, Ricky Williams touched the ball only one more time in the game-and it was on a reception.  Instead, Sparano had his QB who had started all of 2 career games throwing to the likes of Ted Ginn, Davone Bess, Greg Camarillo, and Brian Hartline-none of whom are over 6’1” or weigh more than 190 lbs.  Ginn looked particularly bad while dropping two passes and has yet to show that he’s anything more than a return specialist, and he doesn’t even do that well.  Hopefully Sparano will notice what got him the 21 point lead and go back to doing more of that.  In the two games Henne has won, the rushing attempts outnumbered the passing attempts 81-48.  In the loss to the Saints Henne threw 36 times compared to 30 rushing attempts (25 by Brown and Williams).  With a rematch with the Jets ahead, expect to see more of Ricky and Ronnie and less of the Ginn Man.
  7. Jeff Reed can’t tackle.  ‘Nuff said

Trends: Late 2008, Early 2009

Tuesday, October 13th, 2009

Are you surprised that your early-round pick has flopped so far this season, or that one of your later picks is playing past your expectations so far? You shouldn’t be, at least not if you had looked at what was taking place towards the end of the 2008 season. Let’s check out a few trends that began towards the end of last season that have continued through the beginning of the 2009 season.

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys: Romo started to falter in Week 14 last season, a trend that continued the rest of the year. Over his final four games of the 2008 campaign, Romo averaged 222 passing yards per game while completing 56 percent of his throws with five touchdowns and six interceptions. Though his big game against the Chiefs last week buoyed his numbers, Romo has still been merely average so far this season, averaging 268 passing yards per contest and tossing six touchdowns with four interceptions while completing 58 percent of his throws. Accuracy seems to be the biggest issue facing Romo. Over his last nine games, he’s completed 60 percent or more of his throws just twice.

Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers: Going in the opposite direction of Romo starting towards the tail end of the 2008 season was Jackson. After just one game of at least 85 receiving yards through that season’s first 13 weeks, Jackson went over that mark three times in the final four games of the year. He averaged five catches for 99 yards in that span, and caught two touchdowns. Through San Diego’s first four games of the 2009 season, Jackson has two touchdowns and twice has had at least 120 receiving yards.

Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins: Portis hasn’t crashed and burned this season, but he hasn’t performed as fantasy owners hoped he would. Through his first five games, Portis is averaging nearly 68 rushing yards per contest and has scored just one time. His delve into statistical mediocrity began last season in Week 13. After having rushed for 120 or more yards in six of the Redskins’ previous eight games, Portis finished the final five weeks of the season averaging only 56 yards per game. And though he scored twice, he also lost two fumbles in that time.

Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts: Already this season, Clark has had three games of at least 75 receiving yards, and just once – in Week 1 – has he not had at least 60 receiving yards. He’s averaging seven receptions for 88 yards in per game this season, and has scored two touchdowns. His surge actually started in Week 15 of 2008, against the Lions. After not having a 100-yard receiving game all year, Clark had two such contests with at least 100 yards over the season’s final three weeks, and he scored twice while averaging nearly nine receptions and 102 yards per game.

Start/Sit WRs: Vincent Jackson is the Go-To Fantasy Wide Receiver

Thursday, October 1st, 2009

Fantasy football start/sit is a weekly look at NFL players, especially fringe players, with highly favorable (or unfavorable) matchups. It may go without saying, but if you have a player in the “sit ‘em” list, it isn’t necessary to bench them unless you do have a favorable backup. Same story holds true for the “start ‘em” players: if you have a stud quarterback you might not need to play them this week.

Start ‘Em!

Vincent JacksonSan Diego Chargers — Philip Rivers loves throwing the ball to Vincent Jackson, and that should be enough to make fantasy owners love him. Jackson is well on his way to an incredible season with 317 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns already. This week the Chargers face Pittsburgh whose defense has struggled throughout the season to contain passing attacks. Granted, the Chargers probably won’t light up this defense, but they will find the endzone through the passing game. Expect another nice week for Jackson who leads wide receivers in fantasy points this season. Below is a graph showing his consistency thus far, and I’m sure it will make PPR-leaguers’ salivate:

Vincent Jackson Receptions

Devin HesterChicago Bears — While Jay Cutler has begun his emergence as a star in the city of Chicago, his top receiver has varied on a week to week basis. But though Devin Hester played a relatively small role week two against the Steelers, he’s been solid overall. In weeks one and three he finished with 15 and 13 fantasy points. This week against the porous Lions’ secondary he hopes to post some very solid numbers.

Santana MossWashington Redskins — Jason Campbell is struggling to throw touchdown passes this season, and in an embarrassing defeat the Redskins lost to the Detroit Lions last week. That said, Moss is by far the most targeted receiver on the Redskins’ roster and his fantasy points exploded last week when he caught 10 passes for 178 yards and a touchdown. This week Washington plays Tampa Bay, which has allowed 7 passing touchdowns and 245 passing yards per week this season.

Sit ‘Em!

Roy E. WilliamsDallas Cowboys — Dallas travels to Denver this week to take on the league’s best pass defense. The Broncos haven’t allowed a passing touchdown yet this season, and overall they’ve given up a tad over 400 yards in three games. Williams, meanwhile, is struggling this season. He hasn’t caught a touchdown pass since week one, nor has he caught more than four passes in a single game. This week isn’t an ideal matchup.

Nate Burleson Seattle Seahawks — Burleson is off to a very solid start this season with 20 receptions for 229 yards and a touchdown. He was especially good last weekend against the Bears, shredding Chicago’s secondary for 109 yards. This week Seattle takes on a Colts defense that has allowed just one touchdown pass this season. No doubt the Seahawks will target him a lot in this one, but the likelihood of him finding the endzone is in doubt.

Sleeper Watch

Johnnie KnoxChicago Bears — Though Hester is the headliner at wide receiver in Chicago, Knox has emerged as a reliable target. He has sure hands and, like Hester, he’s scary fast. Cutler has targeted him 16 times this season — just 3 fewer than Hester — and he’s scored 27 fantasy points thus far — just 3 fewer than Hester. He may have a big week against Detroit’s questionable secondary.

Week 2 Fantasy Football Game Reviews: Part 4

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

Baltimore Ravens (2-0) at San Diego Chargers (1-1): Ravens, 31-26

Notes on Baltimore:

Defense? Who needs defense? The Baltimore Ravens defense has been one of the league’s most porous against the pass through the first two weeks of the regular season. Granted their run defense still ranks first in the NFL (some things never change), but would you have believed me if I told you before the season that the team would allow 580 passing yards after two games? Doubtful.

This is a Ravens team we’re not accustomed to seeing. Instead of a stout defense and run-heavy offense we’ve been treated to the league’s second highest scoring offense and a Joe Flacco on pace to throw 40 touchdowns this season. Before I get carried away, let me point out that the Ravens are running the ball enough rank 4th in yards and 1st in touchdowns. That hasn’t changed.

But would you have guessed a shootout against the Chargers? I wouldn’t have.

Notes on San Diego:

Philip Rivers has put up some impressive numbers in his first two outings, but he’s not putting up the numbers we saw last season. He passed for 436 yards against the Ravens this weekend, but he also threw two interceptions. He already has three this season; that’s as many touchdowns as he’s thrown, too.

But while Rivers has thrown a few passes to opponents, he’s also thrown a boatload to Darren Sproles. The 5th year running back leads the team with 12 receptions for 167 yards and a touchdown; he hasn’t been at all effective running the ball against two solid run defenses - Baltimore and Oakland - averaging just 2.6 yards per carry, but he does have a score. In all, he’s put up some impressive numbers through two games: 216 yards from scrimmage and 2 touchdowns.

Rivers’ second favorite target, Vincent Jackson, hasn’t been a slouch either. He has 11 receptions for 197 yards and 2 touchdowns; he’s split his receptions rather evenly and he’s caught a touchdown in each of his two starts. Expect him to be one of the top receivers in the NFL at the end of the season.

Cleveland Browns (0-2) at Denver Broncos (2-0): Broncos, 27-6

Notes on Cleveland:

Getting lit up two weeks in a row probably isn’t how head coach Eric Mangini envisioned his team beginning the regular season. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what’s happened. This week the Broncos - remember, this is a team that scored 12 points on Cincinnati a week ago thanks to a miracle - dropped 27 on Cleveland this week.

The team’s greatest weakness on offense is its running game. Though they’ve played two solid run offenses - Minnesota and Denver - it’s still a bit disappointing to see Jamal Lewis with just 25 carries for 95 yards. Come to think of it, it’s disappointing to see the team relying so heavily on Brady Quinn to carry the offense. He’s thrown just 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions so far, and it’s not too surprisingly considering his inexperience and the fact he’s been sacked 9 times already.

If anyone will emerge from this offense as a viable fantasy option - given the players who have had game time so far - I think the two safe bets are Braylon Edwards and Robert Royal. Don’t expect Edwards to put up fantastic numbers, but he does lead the team in receptions with 7; if a player touches the ball enough, he will gain yards and score touchdowns. As for Royal, Brady’s going to love him all season in the red zone; he already has 1 touchdown reception, and more are on the way.

Notes on Denver:

After watching Kyle Orton in the preseason there’s one thing I would have guessed: he’d throw at least one interception by now. Fortunately for Broncos’ fans, not only has Orton not thrown an interception, but his 2 touchdowns and 506 passing yards have helped lead the Broncos to a 2-0 record. He passed for 263 yards and 1 touchdown in this one, despite completing just 51.4 percent of his pass attempts.

Josh McDaniels has focused on playing small-ball for the most part this season, and that’s led to Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter getting plenty of touches; 47, so far. Buckhalter has been the more effective of the two, averaging 7.2 yards per carry and scoring a rushing touchdown. He’s also added 3 receptions for 41 yards, pushing his yards from scrimmage to 163. Not bad for a by-committee back.

New York Giants (2-0) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1): Giants, 33-31

Notes on New York:

The Giants have won their first two games of the season by a combined margin of 8 points. But a win is a win, no matter the margin of victory, so the Giants are currently sitting at 2-0 in their division after knocking off the Cowboys in the first of a three game road series. It was as back-and-forth as any game this season, the type of fantasy game all fantasy players relish.

Eli Manning passed for 330 yards and 2 touchdowns, sending 20 of his 25 completions to Mario Manningham and Steve Smith. In other words, no Plaxico, no problem. Manningham and Smith also combined for 284 of his passing yards and both his passing touchdowns. The Cowboys couldn’t contain either player, something defenses will struggle to do all season. Manningham and Smith currently have 29 receptions for 422 yards and 3 touchdowns. These guys are going to be as good as any receiving duo in the NFL this season.

Notes on Dallas:

Let’s start with the good; then we’ll get to Tony Romo. Marion Barber and Felix Jones rushed for 210 yards in the game, scoring 2 touchdowns and averaging a combined 8.4 yards per carry. The Giants held Clinton Portis to 62 yards last week. Dallas did not, in other words, face a terrible run defense. Props to Barber and Jones who now have 234 and 118 yards from scrimmage, respectively.

Indianapolis Colts (2-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-2): Colts, 27-23

Notes on Indianapolis:

How does Peyton Manning do it? The reigning NFL MVP needed less than 15 minutes to beat the Miami Dolphins on the road. Literally. The Dolphins controlled the ball for over 45 minutes in this game. Manning and the Colts needed 23 pass attempts and 11 runs to put up 27 points to beat the Dolphins, who ran more than twice as many (83) plays.

Manning was deadly with his throws, completing 14 passes for 303 yards and 2 touchdowns. Dallas Clark lit it up as his go-to guy, catching 7 passes for 183 yards and a touchdown. Consider those numbers for a moment: Manning averaged more than 21 yards per completion and Clark averaged 26.1 yards per reception. Unbelievable.

Manning might not have Drew Brees’ numbers, but watch out NFL: Manning doesn’t need half a season to hit his stride this year.

Notes on Miami:

This was a tough loss for Miami whose offense did almost everything right on offense this game. They converted on over 70 percent of their third-down attempts and controlled the ball for three quarters of the game. Unfortunately, they also scored just two touchdowns - both by Ronnie Brown, the star of Miami’s offense.

Chad Pennington averaged just 5.5 yards per attempt in the game and he threw an interception in the endzone to end the game. Despite Miami’s best efforts, which included just one punt and a score or near score on every drive, the Dolphins fell short this week.

That said, Ted Ginn had a great week, hauling in 11 passes for 108 yards. This isn’t a passing offense, though, so don’t be surprised if he breaks 100 receiving yards just once or twice more this season, if that.

Week 1 Preview: Top Defenses

Wednesday, September 9th, 2009

Everyone’s making their lists of matchups for the opening weekend so I decided to make one of my own.  Here is a listing of the best matchups for team defenses (special teams not included).

  1. Baltimore vs. Kansas City – Any time a top-5 defense faces off against a bottom-5 offense, the D is a must start.  But what makes Baltimore #1 is the fact that in 2008 the Ravens had the lowest average opponent QB rating at 60.6 and everyone knows how much Todd Haley likes to throw the ball.  Expect plenty of interceptions thrown by Matt Cassel and because of his sprained MCL limiting his mobility, also expect multiple Ravens sacks.
  2. Minnesota vs. Cleveland – Another top D vs. bottom O matchup.  If Brady Quinn only completed 50.6% of his passes against Denver, Buffalo, and Houston then how will he do against a legit defense like Minnesota?  The Williams Wall will be eligible to play and that all but shuts down any attempts for Cleveland to establish a running game.
  3. San Diego vs. Oakland – I don’t think people realize how vital Shawne Merriman is to his defense.  He goes beyond just sacks-his presence forces the offensive coaches to gameplan around him and the double teams he attracts allows for easier one-on-one matchups for guys like Shaun Phillips and Luis Castillo.  There’s also the little fact that JaMarcus Russell has historically struggled against San Diego.  In his three games vs. the Chargers Russell has thrown four interceptions, lost three fumbles, and been sacked 11 times.
  4. New England vs. Buffalo – This isn’t based so much on Dallas’ D as it is on Buffalo’s O.  The Bills have looked horrible on offense this preseason and their O-line has zero players starting in the same position that they played in last season.  Marshawn Lynch being suspended certainly won’t help the running game either.  As for the Richard Seymour trade, I think it may galvanize the team and especially the D-linemen.  For the past week they’ve had to listen to everyone say how great Seymour was for the Patriots and he was the main reason for their defensive success.  That kind of chatter usually fires up the guys who played alongside a departed player and the Patriots will be ready to go Monday night.
  5. Pittsburgh vs. Tennessee – I’ll say that I think Pittsburgh will finish the season as the top ranked season but I have them at #5 for this week because of the previous success that Tennessee has had against the Steelers.  Last year Tennessee was the only team to put up more than 300 yards of total offense and score at least 30 points against Pittsburgh.  While I don’t think the Titans will do either of those on Thursday night, what they will do is protect Kerry Collins.  Part of the reason Pittsburgh is so great on defense is because of their pass rush, but Tennessee’s O-line negates that great pass rush.  Pittsburgh was second in the NFL in sacks last year while Tennessee had the fewest sacks allowed.  This combination lends itself to a low-scoring, low-turnover game that will come down to field goals.
  6. NY Giants vs. Washington – In 2008 Washington managed only 14 points against New York.  Now the Giants get back their best pass rusher and also added quality depth to their entire front seven.  However, many of their players will not be at full strength.  MLB Antonio Pierce is dealing with a sore foot and a little thing called Father Time.  Despite being only 30, Pierce’s play has slipped since he lined up for the Redskins and his first couple of years in New York.  Also OLB Michael Boley is suspended for this game and CB Aaron Ross may not play due to hamstring issues.  Despite all of that, the Giants ferocious pass rush will get to Campbell and force him into a mistake or two.
  7. Tennessee vs. Pittsburgh - Even with the loss of Albert Haynesworth, this team will still be a top-10 defense.  The Titans have Giant-esque depth on their D-line and had six players with at least 3.5 sacks last season, not including Big Albert.  They got to Roethlisberger five times last season and Michael Griffin also had two picks.  While neither of those is likely to happen in this game, I do expect this to be a very physical game and no one usually associates the phrase “physical game” with a lot of points.  Even if they lose the game, Tennessee is still a safe defense to employ this week.
  8. Dallas vs. Tampa Bay – Dallas had more sacks than anyone last year, so why do I don’t have them higher up?  Because the Bucs run-heavy offense won’t allow many pass rushing opportunities.  I do think the Bucs will have success against the Cowboys’ defense but only in yards and not in points.  So if your scoring format penalizes you for yards allowed, then Dallas may not be a good play.  But if you’re looking for a defense that won’t allow a touchdown and may get a sack or two, then the Cowboys are a safe pick.

Fantasy Consequences - Week 1 of the Preseason

Monday, August 17th, 2009

Week 1 of the NFL’s preseason has come, and while every football fan probably watched their team with at least some level of interest, fantasy owners in particular were likely examining what information they could glean out of the contests. To aid in that pursuit, let’s take a look at the games played so far (there are two Monday night games – Jacksonville at Miami and Carolina at NY Giants) and the fantasy consequences of each.

New England 27, Philadelphia 25: One Mr. Bundchen, Tom Brady, was back to his old tricks, going 10-of-15 for 100 yards, one touchdown pass and one interception while staying healthy, which was just fine. It was interesting that Patriots tight end Chris Baker was on the receiving end of both of Brady’s scoring passes. As for Philly, rookie running back LeSean McCoy’s 10 carries for 55 yards made all those that will handcuff him to Brian Westbrook feel good.

Baltimore 23, Washington 0: At least Baltimore’s defense was in mid-season form. Washington did very little, and had just 48 offensive plays all night. In contrast, the Ravens had 54 passing plays, 15 of which came from Joe Flacco, who did a solid job by completing nine of them. On the running back front, Ray Rice (whose fantasy points from last year you can see on the right) carried the ball five times for 22 yards and Willis McGahee toted the rock four times for 26 yards, but Rice’s three catches for 38 yards trumped McGahee’s one catch for seven yards, and is a further indication why Rice is the favorite to be the starting running back.

Pittsburgh 20, Arizona 10: It was ho-hum for Arizona, but worth noting was that Matt Leinart was a bit better than Brian St. Pierre in the battle for that team’s backup job. For the Steelers, Rashard Mendenhall didn’t do himself any favors by running for only 2.7 yards per carry on nine attempts, but wideouts Shaun McDonald and Limas Sweed were productive. Sweed has big-time potential, but he was useless last season, and needs to step up this year. Still, he’s someone fantasy owners may want to keep in the back of their minds.

Oakland 31, Dallas 10: Dallas wideout Sam Hurd made the most noise by far in the team’s wide receiver battle, as he caught five passes for 79 yards, while no other wideout caught more than one pass. Darren McFadden used a 45-yard rumble to amass 63 yards on just four carries, showing the type of explosiveness that makes fantasy owners believe he can have a breakout campaign.

St. Louis 23, NY Jets 20: Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez played just one series, but that was enough for him to complete three of his four throws for 88 yards and be named the starter in the team’s next preseason game. For the Rams, the early battle for the team’s No. 2 running back job is being led by Samkon Gado, who ran for 93 yards, including one 77-yard touchdown gallop.

Minnesota 13, Indianapolis 3: Sage Rosenfels looked pretty good by completing 10 of his 13 passes for the Vikings, while the man he is battling for the starting QB job, Tarvaris Jackson, completed only seven of his 15 throws. Rookie runner Donald Brown started off nicely for the Colts, running the ball five times for and excellent 58 yards, including a 38-yard tote.

New Orleans 17, Cincinnati 7: Cedric Benson did what Cedric Benson always does - ran for under 4.0 yard per carry. His 28 yards on eight carries (3.5 ypc) does little to inspire those that have been burned by the former first-round bust in the past. Speaking of busts - okay, possible busts - Reggie Bush continues to show he makes an outstanding slot receiver for a running back, carrying three times and gaining 15 feet.

San Francisco 17, Denver 16: Disaster, thy name is Kyle Orton. Fantasy owners will need to see more than three interceptions in 16 passes from the new Broncos signal-caller before embracing him on their roster. So too will Denver fans. For the Niners, tight end Vernon Davis proved he could get downfield a bit, with two receptions for 41 yards.

Detroit 27, Atlanta 26: Not much happened to speak of for the Falcons, besides losing to Detroit after being up by nine with under 3:00 to play. Preseason or not, that’s a poor way to start. A much better way to start is by doing what Michael Turner did, running for 63 yards and a score on six carries. Matthew Stafford was a bit up and down for the Lions, connecting on half of his 14 passes, throwing for a score but also tossing a pick.

Buffalo 27, Chicago 20: Not the greatest of beginnings for Jay Cutler. While he wasn’t as terrible as the man he switched teams with, he completed just five of his 10 passes and threw an awful interception, chucking the ball in the air after feeling some pressure. Buffalo quarterback Trent Edwards was very good, however, despite not having Terrell Owens. He completed each of the 10 throws he made.

Green Bay 17, Cleveland 0: Some sizzling quarterback race in Cleveland. Brady Quinn did complete seven of his 11 passes, but for only 68 yards, and he also tossed an interception. Derek Anderson, meanwhile, threw twice and completed one - to the wrong team. All the Green Bay running backs did a nice job, and it was good to see Brandon Jackson - a must-handcuff to Ryan Grant - deliver 41 yards on eight carries.

Tennessee 27, Tampa Bay 20: Little seemed to have been done to uncoil the quarterback situation in Tampa, as Byron Leftwich, Josh Freeman and Luke McCown were each okay. For the Titans, rookie wideout Kenny Britt started off with a bang, with five catches for 89 yards and a touchdown. He’s definitely someone to look out for in the rookie wide receiver class.

Houston 16, Kansas City 10: Someone needs to be the backup and possible handcuff to Steve Slaton, and both Ryan Moats and Chris Brown got off to solid starts. Moats ran the ball 10 times for 52 yards, while Brown carried it six times for 25 yards and a score. On the Chiefs side, not much could be taken away from the start Matt Cassel had, as he completed just two of his five throws.

Seattle 20, San Diego 14: Neither T.J. Duckett nor Julius Jones ran for 4.0 yards per carry in what could be a sign of things to come this season in the Seattle running game. Then again, neither did LaDainian Tomlinson or Darren Sproles in this contest that told very little about either team’s stars.

Ten Facts You Need to Know About LaDainian Tomlinson

Sunday, August 16th, 2009

LaDainian Tomlinson’s 2008 season was regarded by most as a disappointment, and considering his performances in seasons past one could justify that argument on a relative basis. Truth be told, disappointment can be argued almost solely on a basis of relativitity, and even then I believe it has been greatly exaggerated.

The following ten facts concerning Tomlinson may shed some light on his season and its misperception.

(1) Tomlinson was a very big part of the Chargers’ offense last season. It’s misleading to consider Philip Rivers’ season numbers and come away with an accurate depiction of the season. Tomlinson was the eighth ranked running back in the NFL in terms of carries per game and sixth in total carries for the season. He was also one of San Diego’s top receivers, finishing with 52 receptions — only Antonio Gates (60) and Vincent Jackson (59) had more.

(2) LT was used less often than in previous seasons, however. 2008 was the first season of his career in which he had fewer than 300 carries — he had 292 — but in terms of receptions, he was on par with his season totals dating back to 2004. The 52 receptions with which he ended the year was just short of his previous four years’ average of 55.

(3) Perhaps the biggest criticism levied against Tomlinson was lack of scoring, probably because he hadn’t scored fewer than 18 times since 2003. But while he scored six fewer times than in 2007, the Bolts’ leading back was tied for eighth in the NFL in touchdowns. He also finished seventh in terms of rushing scores, three short of being tied for third.

(4) Worried about the big 3-0? The respective years they turned 30, Barry Sanders rushed for 1,491 yards, Marshall Faulk scored 11 touchdowns, Emmitt Smith carried for 1,397 yards, and Walter Payton broke 2,000 yards from scrimmage. The reason? They were the best of the best. So is Tomlinson.

(5) Was Tomlinson’s biggest flaw last season his uncharacteristic yard per carry average? 3.8 is well short of his career 4.4 average, but it wasn’t the first time he failed to break four-point-oh. In 2001 and 2004 he was short of the mark, posting averages of 3.6 and 3.9. 2001 was his rookie season and in 2004 he led the league in rushing touchdowns. Don’t worry about the low mark — he gets enough carries to negate the effects and it’s a rare occurrence.

(6) I didn’t mention this before, so I may as well mention it now: Tomlinson posted an average of 8.2 yards per reception last season. That mark is the third highest of his career. It’s also only the second time he’s averaged more than seven yards per catch and failed to make the Pro Bowl.

(7) Speaking of Pro Bowls, 2008 was the second year since 2002 and the first since 2004 Tomlinson didn’t get enough votes. The man oozes consistency and greatness — falling short of absolutely incredible is evidently viewed by the public as being an unworthy season.

(8) Including 2008, Tomlinson has never finished a season with fewer than 1,500 yards from scrimmage. That fact speaks for itself.

(9) He’s also finished just one season with fewer than 16 starts. In 2004 he played 15 games, breaking the streak. For the record, he has played 127 of 128 possible regular season games. And as a p.s., the game he didn’t play was in week 17 of the regular season, after the Chargers had already won the AFC West.

(10) One last note: Tomlinson is one rushing touchdown short of averaging one touchdown per game for an entire career. Including receiving touchdowns he is averaging 1.11 touchdowns per game since entering the league.

(Bonus) Though many fans may already be aware, Tomlinson is second all-time in terms of rushing touchdowns, 38 scores behind Emmitt Smith’s mark of 164. Tomlinson is entering his 9th NFL season and, purely in terms of seasons after entering the league, is 14 touchdowns ahead of Smith, who played 15 seasons.

Ten Facts You Need to Know About Philip Rivers

Tuesday, August 11th, 2009

After Philip Rivers’ breakthrough 2008 season a lot of fans are ready to crown him as a top five fantasy quarterback. Before you pole vault onto that bandwagon, keep the following ten facts in mind — then make your decision.

(1) Rivers’ touchdown percentage last season, 7.1, was spectacular. He led all quarterbacks with at least 125 passing attempts and posted a rate only a handful of quarterbacks ever achieve in multiple seasons. In fact, Peyton Manning has posted a rate above 6.2 only once – in 2004, when he threw 49 touchdowns. The point: don’t expect Rivers to replicate that number anytime soon.

(2) The San Diego gunslinger posted touchdown percentages of 4.8 and 4.6 in 2006 and 2007, respectively. Not surprisingly, last season was the first in his career in which he threw more than 22 touchdown passes. He threw 34.

(3) Rivers also posted an impressive average yards per attempt: 8.4. Only Drew Brees and Matt Schaub, both of whom posted an even 8.0, broke the “eight” barrier last season. Similarly, in 2007 only Tom Brady broke the mark, his being slightly lower than Rivers. Again: 8.4 is a number unlikely to be duplicated.

(4) Rivers has remained relatively consistent in one respect the past three seasons: passing attempts. He attempted 460, 460, and 478 passes since 2006. It is unlikely he will attempt significantly more this season, either, especially if LaDainian Tomlinson remains healthy throughout the year.

(5) 2008 was the first season in Rivers’ career in which he broke 4,000 passing yards (he finished with 4,009). As can be guessed, it’s relatively rare for a quarterback to break 4,000 yards with fewer than 500 passing attempts, as he must average at least 8.0 yards per attempt.

(6) To further put 8.0 yards per attempt in perspective, it’s worth pointing out Peyton Manning has averaged at least 8.0 yards per attempt twice in his career; Tom Brady has done it once; and the great Dan Marino did it just twice in 17 seasons.

(7) 2008 was also the first season in which Philip Rivers passed for at least 30 touchdowns — as was pointed out before he had never thrown more than 22 in a single season. To put that number in perspective it’s worth noting that Dan Marino and Peyton Manning threw or have thrown at least 30 a combined eight times in 28 seasons.

(8) In only one of those 28 seasons did either Marino or Manning attempt fewer than 500 passes: in 2004, when Manning set the league on fire with 49 touchdowns in 497 attempts, effectively setting the touchdown percentage record at an unreachable height: 9.9 percent.

(9) Incidentally, last season was also a personal record for Rivers in one other respect: his completion percentage was at an all-time high, 65.3 percent. It’s quite difficult to reach a rate of 65 percent, evidenced by the master of the west coast offense, Joe Montana, having done so just three times in his 13-year career.

(10) If Philip Rivers posts a touchdown percentage rate of 5.5 and a yards per attempt rate of 7.5 this season — both being very generous projections – these are his most likely numbers: 3,563 yards and 26 touchdowns. A more conservative guesstimate — touchdown percentage: 4.8; yards per attempt rate: 7.0 — would place him closer to 3,325 yards and 23 touchdowns. In the end, he’ll likely finish somewhere in the middle and my projections might look like 3,450 passing yards and 25 touchdowns.

The idea of this post wasn’t to rag on Philip Rivers or belittle his accomplishments in any way. As most of the facts pointed out, the numbers he posted last season were quite literally historic. Only the best quarterbacks in the history of professional football reached the heights he did last season.

However, if you’ve taken away one other thing from the post it’s this: 2008 was likely something of an anomaly. It would be incredible if Rivers passes for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns again this season. Don’t bank on it.