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Posts Tagged ‘Seattle Seahawks’

Week 12 Review: Targets

Tuesday, December 1st, 2009

It’s Tuesday, and with all games having been played, it’s time to get going on our weekly routine of looking at targets from the previous day’s NFL action.

- T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seattle Seahawks: As our graph shows, Houshmandzadeh has been the recipient of 97 targets this season, including a team-high six in Seattle’s win over the Rams last week. However, he hasn’t done much considering only seven players have gotten more looks than he has. He caught a measly two passes for 14 yards last week, and has only 56 receptions for 632 yards so far in the ’09 campaign. The high number of targets he’s received is just another reason to count him among the biggest disappointments of the fantasy football season.

- Michael Jenkins, Atlanta Falcons: Jenkins received eight targets last week in Atlanta’s win over the Buccaneers, and he came down with seven receptions for 80 yards. While Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White got more looks (12 and 13, respectively), and will continue to do so, Jenkins’ production over his last two games should not be ignored; he had six receptions for 76 yards two weeks ago. His catch totals in each of his past two games have each been season-highs, and his 80 receiving yards are a season-high.

- Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills: The wideout with the most targets for the Bills last week wasn’t Owens, it was Lee Evans. Evans received six targets, and Owens had five, yet T.O. had far more success, catching all five of the passes thrown his way for 96 yards and a touchdown, while Evans had only two catches for 40 yards. Beware of getting caught in the trap that is Owens’ big numbers of late – he faces the Jets this weekend, and Darrelle Revis has shut nearly every big-time wide receiver down this season.

- Pierre Garcon, Indianapolis Colts: Garcon received seven targets from Peyton Manning last week in the Colts’ come-from-behind win over the Texans. That included a number of red zone looks, and Garcon responded with five receptions for 63 yards and one touchdown. His seven targets were the second-most on the team behind Dallas Clark, and were one more than Reggie Wayne.

- Chris Chambers, Kansas City Chiefs: Chambers was targeted eight times last week as the Chiefs got blown out by Chambers’ old team, the Chargers. He led the team in targets, and wound up with seven catches for 71 yards and a touchdown. He’s unquestionably the No. 1 wideout for K.C. with Dwayne Bowe out due to suspension, and his targets should reflect that.

- Other Week 10 target numbers of interest: Kenny Britt, 11; Sidney Rice, Mark Clayton, Sam Aiken, 10; Laveranues Coles, 9; Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, Chansi Stuckey, 8; Jeremy Maclin, Chaz Schilens, Sammie Stroughter, Brian Hartline, 7; Robert Meachem, 6; Chad Ochocinco, 5; Roy Williams, 4; Devin Hester, 2.

$ Fantasy Fallout from Week 10 RB Injuries

Tuesday, November 17th, 2009

Week 10 of the 2009 season will most likely be remembered for the Colts-Patriots game and the controversial decision by Bill Belichick to go for it on fourth down.  But there were other stories elsewhere, many of which pertained to running backs.  Five starting running backs went down this past week, some with more serious injuries than others.  I will analyze both the short-term and long-term effects of these injuries as well as fantasy ramifications associated with them.

  • Cedric Benson – After seven carries vs. Pittsburgh, Benson had to leave the game with a hip injury.  Coach Lewis says he will likely be a game-time decision, but Benson has never been praised for his toughness so don’t expect him to carry a full-load on Sunday, if he plays at all.  Expect Bernard Scott to receive the bulk of the carries with Brian Leonard getting his usual reps on third downs.  As for Larry Johnson?  Don’t expect anything more than a carry or two this week and don’t expect many touches for Johnson for the rest of the season.  LJ’s burst is gone and he hasn’t scored a TD or had a 20 yard run since December 2008.
  • Ronnie Brown – Brown has injuries to both his right ankle and foot and with a game on Thursday vs. Carolina, there’s almost no chance of him being ready.  In fact, this is looking like an injury that could keep Brown out for a couple of weeks.  As of Tuesday, Brown was still unable to walk without the use of crutches.  Ricky Williams will definitely see an increase in touches and last week he received his first 20 carry game since 2005.  But someone still has to take over Brown’s role as the operator of the Wildcat; the one who receives the snap and then decides whether to run, pass, or handoff to Williams on the end around.  Look for that to be Pat White who had 45 rushing yards vs. New England, but just one last week vs. Tampa Bay.  White is only worth having on your team if you’re in a two-QB league and he has the potential to rack up somewhere between four and eight points per game over the next couple of weeks.  While that may not be much, I’d rather take my chances with White than with guys like JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn who have COMBINED for one fantasy point over the last four weeks.

RB Week 10 Points

  • Julius Jones – With a bruised rib that’s causing bleeding in his lungs, Jones is unlikely to play Sunday vs. the Vikings and will probably be doubtful for Week 12 as well.  Justin Forsett will get the start and he was impressive last week in gaining 123 yards and scoring the first touchdown of his career.  However, the Seahawks will play Minnesota who is allowing the second fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.  They have not allowed more than 84 rushing yards to a running back and Ray Rice is the only player to score a rushing touchdown against them.  Nevertheless, Forsett will likely get 18-20 touches and can be used as a flex play until Jones returns.
  • Michael Turner – Turner has the dreaded high ankle sprain which could keep him out a couple of weeks.  The Monday re-signing of Aaron Stecker also indicates that Jerious Norwood may not return this week due to his hip injury.  That means Jason Snelling will receive the bulk of the carries for the time being.  Along with Justin Forsett, Snelling is probably at the top of waiver wire requests for Week 11.  Snelling has impressed when given the chance to do so as he had 129 rushing yards and 1 TD over his last two games.  The Falcons will see a rejuvenated Giants defense this week but the following week they take on Tampa Bay who has the second worst run defense in the league.  Consider Snelling a RB3 for the Giants game but then upgrades to an RB2 against the Bucs.
  • Brian Westbrook – This is the most serious injury as Westbrook suffered his second concussion in the last month.  Though it hasn’t been confirmed yet, it appears that Westbrook may miss the rest of the season.  He’s always been able to bounce back from knee, ankle, and foot injuries but this is something that could affect his general well-being so look for the Eagles to shut him down.  Even though Philadelphia doesn’t like to run the ball, LeSean McCoy receives an immediate upgrade and should be a weekly starter in your lineup.  Fullback Leonard Weaver will also see an increase in touches and he had 108 rushing yards and a TD in the two full games that Westbrook was out.  Also, don’t be surprised if the “Michael Vick Experiment” gets another run as Andy Reid will do everything he can to get his struggling running game going.

Week 10 Review: Targets

Tuesday, November 17th, 2009

It’s Tuesday, and with all games having been played, it’s time to get going on our weekly routine of looking at targets from the previous day’s NFL action.

- Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers: Early in the game between the 49ers and the Bears, it looked like Crabtree was going to have a monster contest, as San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith seemed intent on pumping the ball into Crabtree as often as possible. But that plan soon dissipated and Crabtree received just seven targets fr the game. Still, it’s an indicator of what the 49ers think of their young first-round pick, and how big a part of the game plan he’ll be moving forward.

- Nate Washington, Tennessee Titans: With Justin Gage hurt, it’s tempting to want to look towards Washington as a viable fantasy option, especially since he caught a touchdown pass last week. But he was only targeted twice by Vince Young, though Washington caught both. In fact, of the 25 passes Young threw in the Titans’ win over the Bills, just nine throws were meant for wide receivers.

- Brandon Gibson, St. Louis Rams: Gibson saw his first extended NFL action in the Rams’ loss to the Saints, and he was targeted nine times, which was tops among St. Louis wideouts. He wound up with seven catches for 93 yards, and now that Keenan Burton is out for the year, Gibson likely becomes a starter.

- Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets: Cotchery was targeted 11 times, which is notable because it was more than double the amount of looks Mark Sanchez gave to Braylon Edwards, who received just five targets. And Cotchery was productive as usual, catching six passes, including one for a touchdown.

- T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seattle Seahawks: Houshmandzadeh had wanted the ball more often, and he certainly got his opportunities last week. He was targeted 17 times by Matt Hasselbeck, and was productive with nine receptions for 165 yards. You just have to wonder how much that hurt Nate Burleson, who killed fantasy owners by failing to catch a single pass on just five targets.

Other Week 10 target numbers of interest: DeSean Jackson, 16; Devin Hester, Santonio Holmes, 14; Dwayne Bowe, Brent Celek, 11; Anquan Boldin, 10; Pierre Garcon, 9; Bernard Berrian, Muhsin Muhammad, 8; Terrell Owens, Davone Bess, Roy Williams, 7; Dallas Clark, 5; Mohamed Massaquoi, Vincent Jackson, 3; Marques Colston, 2.

Week 8 Review: Targets

Monday, November 2nd, 2009

It’s Monday, so it’s time to get going on our weekly routine of looking at targets from the previous day’s NFL action.

- Nate Burleson, Seattle Seahawks: Matt Hasselbeck looked Burleson’s way 12 times in the Seahawks’ loss to the Cowboys on Sunday; he caught six of those throws for 89 yards. Burleson’s 12 targets were double the amount T.J. Houshmandzadeh received, and it vaulted Burleson past Housh in targets for the season. Burleson is now sixth in the NFL and third in the NFC with 66 targets.

- Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers: A week after getting targeted a total of six times, which was the most (tied with Isaac Bruce) among San Francisco wideouts but was fewer than tight end Vernon Davis, Crabtree received nine targets to lead the entire team in the 49ers’ loss to the Colts. He thusly went on to lead the team with six catches and 89 receiving yards. Clearly, it’s only a matter of time before he forays into the end zone.

- Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills: Owens was targeted eight times by Buffalo quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick on Sunday, and the formerly potent wideout wound up with five catches, but for just 39 yards. Those eight targets were four more than any other Bills receiver got, and six more than Lee Evans. As for Owens, yes, he scored a touchdown, but that was on a running play; he’s still scored just one time on a reception all season, and that was back in Week 2.

- Dustin Keller, New York Jets: Mark Sanchez looked in Keller’s direction 13 times in the Jets’ loss to the Dolphins on Sunday. Of those looks, Keller came up with a team-high eight catches for 76 yards with a touchdown. Keller had five more targets than both Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery, and the tight end is now tied for 18th in the AFC with 49 targets, which is just one fewer than Edwards has, though some of Edwards’ looks came with the Browns.

- Justin Gage, Tennessee Titans: With Vince Young behind center, Gage received a team-leading five targets as Tennessee won their first game of the season over the Jaguars. Gage wound up with three catches for a team-high 41 yards. He was basically a forgotten man with Kerry Collins at the helm, so we’ll see if his fantasy value gets restored now that Young is at the helm.

Other Week 8 target numbers of interest: Reggie Wayne, 20; Steve Smith (NYG), Vincent Jackson, Greg Jennings, 12; Kevin Boss, 9; Eddie Royal, Bryant Johnson, Austin Collie, 8; Percy Harvin, Zach Miller, 7; Mike Thomas, Keenan Burton, 6; Sidney Rice, 5; Ted Ginn Jr., 1.

Start/Sit WRs: Vincent Jackson is the Go-To Fantasy Wide Receiver

Thursday, October 1st, 2009

Fantasy football start/sit is a weekly look at NFL players, especially fringe players, with highly favorable (or unfavorable) matchups. It may go without saying, but if you have a player in the “sit ‘em” list, it isn’t necessary to bench them unless you do have a favorable backup. Same story holds true for the “start ‘em” players: if you have a stud quarterback you might not need to play them this week.

Start ‘Em!

Vincent JacksonSan Diego Chargers — Philip Rivers loves throwing the ball to Vincent Jackson, and that should be enough to make fantasy owners love him. Jackson is well on his way to an incredible season with 317 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns already. This week the Chargers face Pittsburgh whose defense has struggled throughout the season to contain passing attacks. Granted, the Chargers probably won’t light up this defense, but they will find the endzone through the passing game. Expect another nice week for Jackson who leads wide receivers in fantasy points this season. Below is a graph showing his consistency thus far, and I’m sure it will make PPR-leaguers’ salivate:

Vincent Jackson Receptions

Devin HesterChicago Bears — While Jay Cutler has begun his emergence as a star in the city of Chicago, his top receiver has varied on a week to week basis. But though Devin Hester played a relatively small role week two against the Steelers, he’s been solid overall. In weeks one and three he finished with 15 and 13 fantasy points. This week against the porous Lions’ secondary he hopes to post some very solid numbers.

Santana MossWashington Redskins — Jason Campbell is struggling to throw touchdown passes this season, and in an embarrassing defeat the Redskins lost to the Detroit Lions last week. That said, Moss is by far the most targeted receiver on the Redskins’ roster and his fantasy points exploded last week when he caught 10 passes for 178 yards and a touchdown. This week Washington plays Tampa Bay, which has allowed 7 passing touchdowns and 245 passing yards per week this season.

Sit ‘Em!

Roy E. WilliamsDallas Cowboys — Dallas travels to Denver this week to take on the league’s best pass defense. The Broncos haven’t allowed a passing touchdown yet this season, and overall they’ve given up a tad over 400 yards in three games. Williams, meanwhile, is struggling this season. He hasn’t caught a touchdown pass since week one, nor has he caught more than four passes in a single game. This week isn’t an ideal matchup.

Nate Burleson Seattle Seahawks — Burleson is off to a very solid start this season with 20 receptions for 229 yards and a touchdown. He was especially good last weekend against the Bears, shredding Chicago’s secondary for 109 yards. This week Seattle takes on a Colts defense that has allowed just one touchdown pass this season. No doubt the Seahawks will target him a lot in this one, but the likelihood of him finding the endzone is in doubt.

Sleeper Watch

Johnnie KnoxChicago Bears — Though Hester is the headliner at wide receiver in Chicago, Knox has emerged as a reliable target. He has sure hands and, like Hester, he’s scary fast. Cutler has targeted him 16 times this season — just 3 fewer than Hester — and he’s scored 27 fantasy points thus far — just 3 fewer than Hester. He may have a big week against Detroit’s questionable secondary.

Week 2 Fantasy Football Game Reviews: Part 3

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

St. Louis (0-2) at Washington (1-1): Washington, 9-7

Preseason predictions aren’t always correct, but the St. Louis Rams are turning into a prophesy: the team has scored 7 points in its first two games of the season. In addition, Steven Jackson is off to a solid start with 171 rushing yards and 15 receiving yards; as predicted before the season, he might be the team’s only viable fantasy option.

That said, wide receiver Laurent Robinson is turning some heads — or at least he should be. Through the first two games without Torry Holt, Robinson has racked up 141 receiving yards and the team’s only touchdown of the season. There’s no catch, either; Robinson has caught 5 and 6 passes in the first two games of the season, suggesting that, discounting Jackson, he is the most consistent fantasy option on the roster.

On Washington’s end, it appears the Redskins may be in for another long season on offense. Only St. Louis has scored fewer points this season (go figure) and Jason Campbell has just one passing touchdown and one interception. As noted before the season, unless he can turn it on and get his yards per attempt up — it was 6.9 this week — and this team in the end zone, the Redskins are going to struggle.

Having said that, his yards per attempt is up from last season’s dismal 6.4. His favorite target has been tight end Chris Cooley, something that is unlikely to change in the near future. Cooley has been on the receiving end of 7 completions in each of the first two games of the season; he also caught Campbell’s only touchdown pass.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) at Buffalo Bills (1-1): Buffalo Bills, 33-20

I wonder if the Buccaneers regret firing Jon Gruden. Tampa Bay has put up some great numbers on offense so far this season — 286 passing yards per game, for example — but the team is struggling mightily in one area: stopping anything on defense. Dallas and Buffalo put up a combined 67 points in the first two games of the season, and despite Byron Leftwich’s best efforts (like his 4 touchdown passes) the Bucs haven’t been able to keep up. They’ve been forced to throw the ball 92 times while running it about half as many times. 67-33, pass isn’t the ratio we expected before the season; Tampa Bay’s defense needs to step up to the plate soon. If they don’t, treat them like the Lions: if you have fantasy players going up against them, don’t hesitate to start them.

As Buffalo is concerned, the offensive coordinator switch prior to the regular season is looking like a great move. The team is this close to 2-0 if not for a foolish kick return against the Patriots week one. Trent Edwards is drawing some attention for his passing: he’s thrown 4 touchdowns through the first two games and his completion percentage is a sharp 64.3. He lit the Bucs up with the deep ball after Fred Jackson forced the team to respect the run with his 163 yards on 28 carries.

Speaking of which, Jackson is turning into a great RB1. His quickness and catching ability make him a great option in PPR leagues, and in all others he’s still impressive: 220 rushing yards and 108 receiving yards so far, and in neither game has been held to under 140 yards from scrimmage. He’s only scored one touchdown so far, but if this offense keeps it up he’ll see the endzone much more before this season is over.

Last note: the Bills have surrendered a lot of passing yards on defense. Keep that in mind this weekend when they face New Orleans.

Seattle Seahawks (1-1) at San Francisco 49ers (2-0): San Francisco, 23-10

How does one peg the Seahawks? They shut out St. Louis while tacking 28 on the board week one, but, then again, is that a real accomplishment? After all, a week later the ‘Skins held St. Louis to 7 points. While that was happening the ‘Hawks were busy getting shut out in the second half by San Francisco; they put up 10 points this week. Attribute it to Matt Hasselbeck’s injury if you must; I’m just saying, don’t expect division title contention this year.

From a fantasy perspective, there is one gem on the roster so far. Tight end John Carlson put up big numbers week one — including his two touchdown receptions — and this week he still managed 6 more receptions. He’s going to be a big target on offense all season, especially in the red zone. Aside from that, everyone took a step back this week. It may be attributed to Hasselbeck’s cracked rib, so it’s best to watch his health and production in the upcoming weeks and play it safe with key components on offense (like Nate Burleson, who dropped from 13 fantasy points last week to 5 this week).

I don’t want to say I called it just yet, but I wrote an article back in March praising head coach Mike Singletary and noting that he was steering the team in the right direction. So far so good, no?

Singletary has his team off to a 2-0 division record with tough defense and a smart, balanced offense. Frank Gore has 237 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns through the first two weeks of the season, while quarterback Shaun Hill has done his part, passing for 353 yards and 1 touchdown (and no interceptions). Gore padded his numbers this week with a 207 yard performance, but Hill was the star week one, racking up 209 passing yards and a touchdown.

All things considered, this team’s fantasy star is Frank Gore; he’s scored twice in each of the first two games of the season and has 294 yards from scrimmage so far. Everything after him is something of a crap shoot on a week-to-week basis. Vernon Davis and Isaac Bruce are the only two players besides Gore with more than 3 receptions so far and neither has a touchdown. If you’re a fantasy player, stick with Gore and leave the rest on waivers.

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Chicago Bears (1-1): Chicago, 17-14

Pittsburgh might be the league’s biggest disappointment through the first two games of the season. Not on defense, necessarily, but Big Ben, Fast Willy, and the rest of the un-nicknamed offense is off to a slow start. Ben has passed for 584 yards but just 2 touchdowns; Willie is averaging 2.4 yards per carry; and though both Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes have combined for 374 receiving yards, they have one touchdown between them.

From a fantasy perspective, only Holmes, with 14 receptions, 214 yards, and 1 touchdown, has wowed so far. Ward has 14 receptions, too, but this week he finished with just 64 yards; it doesn’t help that he’s still scoreless. As Roethlisberger is concerned, his 3 interceptions are frustrating fantasy owners more than his passing yards have impressed them. The Steelers must establish a running game at some point this season; Roethlisberger can be far too erratic otherwise.

Bears fans, I present you with an NFL quarterback, Jay Cutler. Number six put up solid numbers in his home debut against one of the league’s toughest defenses, passing for 236 yards, 2 touchdowns, and, more importantly, 0 interceptions. He also led the team to a win, setting up kicker Robbie “Good As” Gould with a 44-yard, game-winning field goal that left seconds on the clock.

The secret? Cutler didn’t take as many chances in this one. His passes were underneath, something the Steelers seemed almost content to give him. His decision-making kept the Steelers off-balance throughout, and kept the Bears driving. Chicago’s receivers still struggled at times to make catches, but one player emerged: Johnny Knox. He seemed to have the surest hands on the field, catching 6 passes for 70 yards and 2 touchdowns. Keep an eye on him and the rest of Chicago’s receivers to see who Cutler favors most in the weeks ahead.

Evaluating the Three-headed Committees at Running Back (NFC)

Wednesday, September 9th, 2009

This is a continuation of the assessment of teams that employ multiple running backs.  You can view the blog on AFC teams that use a RBBC by clicking here.

Seattle

  • Starter (Julius Jones): Behind new OC Greg Knapp’s zone blocking scheme, Jones’ acceleration will be a big asset and he could crack 1000 yards.  In his eight years as offensive coordinator for three franchises, his teams have finished in the top 10 in rushing all eight years.  Jones averaged 4.4 ypc. last year which was good enough for 10th among starters and now will have more rushing opportunities with the departure of Maurice Morris.
  • 3rd down back (Justin Forsett/Edgerrin James): Despite having zero career receptions, Forsett was fourth in the league in receptions during preseason so the Seahawks definitely have plans for him.  James could overtake Forsett once he learns all the nuances of the playbook and the fact that he’s probably the best pass blocking RB in the league will endear himself to Matt Hasselbeck.
  • Goal line back (Edgerrin James): Of Julius Jones’ 158 carries last season, only three were inside the 10 yard line.  Edgerrin James was brought to Seattle in part because of his experience with short yardage situations.  He faces no competition from the other Seahawk halfbacks for this role and could reach double-digit touchdowns.

Tampa Bay

  • Starter (Cadillac Williams): Coach Raheem Morris has officially named Williams the starter of Week 1.  The Bucs will still use a committee approach and will use a 2-2-1 system where Williams gets two drives, then Derrick Ward gets two drives, and then Earnest Graham gets one drive.  Even with Morris’ announcement, Cadillac’s injury history makes him a risky mid-round draft pick.  In some of the leagues I am in, he wasn’t even drafted so if you can get him as a low-end RB3 then you’ve got yourself a steal.
  • 3rd down back (Derrick Ward): This is what puts Ward over Williams in terms of value.  Ward ranked in the top 10 among running backs in receiving yards last year and there’s no reason why he won’t do it again.  He did that despite the fact that the Giants were usually ahead in the fourth quarter, and thus, ran the ball to kill the clock.  The Bucs won’t have that luxury and will be throwing quite often in the second half of games which boosts Ward’s value.
  • Goal line back (Cadillac Williams): In reality, the goal line back will be the designated RB for that particular drive.  Since Williams and Ward will get most of the carries then they are also more likely to receive more chances as the goal line back than Graham.  Williams gets a slight edge over Ward because he has more experience in short yardage situations.  Brandon Jacobs took all of the goal line carries in New York, which is a reason why Ward only has five career rushing touchdowns.  Williams had four TDs last year alone, and he did it in only six games.

NY Giants

  • Starter (Brandon Jacobs): Jacobs is the clear-cut starter, Ahmad Bradshaw is his backup, and Danny Ware rounds out the top three.  But if Jacobs gets injured, which happens quite often, then it will be Ware who assumes the starting position with Bradshaw backing him up.  Ware is similar to Derrick Ward in body type and running style and the Giants prefer to use Bradshaw as the change-of-pace running back.  Thus, he is unlikely to get the bulk of the carries if/when Jacobs gets injured.  Jacobs is still a first rounder and Bradshaw can serve as a flex option.  Ware is worth a late round draft pick and should be handcuffed if you also own Jacobs.
  • 3rd down back (Ahmad Bradshaw/Danny Ware): Each of these players had six receptions during preseason and they will likely split this role.  But Bradshaw should end up with more receptions because he will be used as a receiver out of the backfield as well as on screens.  Ware will also see time in this role but more so as a blocker against blitz-heavy teams.  Jacobs only had 15 carries on third downs in ’08 and just six receptions for the season so he is not much of a factor in these situations.
  • Goal line back (Brandon Jacobs): No doubt about this one.  Jacobs was the goal-line back when Tiki Barber was in New York and will remain his team’s goal-line back until the day he retires.

Dallas

  • Starter (Marion Barber): Barber is still the #1 RB but expect his touches to drop as long as Felix Jones and Tashard Choice stay healthy.  Barber will carry the ball about 15 times per game, Jones will receive 10-12 total touches (carries + receptions), and Choice will get whatever is left.  Barber can still be used as a RB1 if in a league with more than ten teams and Jones is a solid flex and Choice should only be drafted in deep leagues.
  • 3rd down back (Marion Barber): Most people expect this to be Felix Jones but both Barber and Choice are the better blockers.  Additionally, Jones often times lines up in the slot or out wide so while he is still a good source of receptions, many of them will not come from out of the backfield.
  • Goal line back (Marion Barber): Just as for Brandon Jacobs in New York, this role really isn’t up for discussion in Dallas.  30 of his 36 career rushing touchdowns have come in goal-to-go situations.

Preseason Week 3: Before the Games

Thursday, August 27th, 2009

With the third week of preseason games getting underway, it’s time to take a look around the league to see what’s going on, and what use it will be for the upcoming fantasy season.

- Reggie Brown (and His Fantasy Value) on the Move? The Philadelphia Eagles have too many receivers than they know what to do with, and the Philadelphia Daily News says that both the Jets and Ravens are interested in Reggie Brown. Brown is a former second-round draft pick who looked like he was going to blossom into an excellent player before getting injured and falling back on the depth chart last season. If he is moved, his fantasy value would rise by leaps and bounds, to the point where he would be worth drafting as a reserve.

- Jermichael Finley Pushing Donald Lee for Playing Time: Last season, Packers rookie and third-round pick, tight end Jermichael Finley, did loads of nothing, as fellow tight end Donald Lee helped fantasy owners to the tune of five touchdowns. Things could be quite different this season for both of them, as Finley has made people take notice with his play, or so says the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. This could be either beneficial or harmful to fantasy owners. If Finley steps up and takes the job outright from Lee, He has value as a big target who could be useful in the end zone. However, the most likely scenario is that the two split time, and neither puts up fantasy-worthy numbers. Keep that in mind when thinking about Lee as a TE2.

- Chiefs and Jags Talking Trade for Tyler Thigpen: NFL.com says that Thigpen (see his fantasy points per game last season on graph), the Kansas City quarterback and hero to many fantasy owners last season, may be on his way to Jacksonville. Apparently the NFL’s J.D. Drew Award winner (for yearly injuries), Brodie Croyle, is going to be the No. 2 quarterback behind Matt Cassel, leaving Thigpen out in the cold.

- Michael Crabtree Offered Fair-Market Deal: According to Santa Rosa Press Democrat reporter Matt Maiocco, the 49ers have offered Crabtree, the 10th overall pick in the draft, somewhere “in the neighborhood of five years, $20 million base, $26.5 million maximum, with $16 million guaranteed.” Which, as Maiocco points out, is solidly in between what No. 9 pick B.J. Raji got and what No. 11 pick Aaron Maybin got. Crabtree’s agent seems to think this is a fair deal as well, but Crabtree does not. Fantasy owners should not count on seeing him any time soon, it sounds like. His fantasy value has taken a major plunge since the beginning of training camp.

- Walter Jones Not Headed for Retirement: The longtime Seattle Seahawks left tackle is expected to be back with the team, reports the Seattle Post-Intelligencer. There was some speculation that Jones may hang ‘em up after undergoing another operation on his balky knee.

Daily Fantasy Buzz: News You Can Use

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

Quarterbacks 

Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger, whose achiles has been in some question, practiced Tuesday in pads and a helmet. Coach Mike Tomlin expects his franchise quarterback to be “fine”, so barring another injury, expect Roethlisberger to play preseason ball.

In case you missed it yesterday, Shaun Hill is going to start at quarterback for the 49ers. I’m one of the legions who believes this is the right move after watching Hill’s performances last season, and coach Mike Singletary cited his leadership qualities as another factor in the decision. Hill finished 2008 with 2,046 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, adding up to an 87.5 passer rating.

Running Backs

In order to make room on the roster for Edgerrin James, the Seattle Seahawks are opting to release power running back T.J. Duckett. Duckett rushed for eight touchdowns last season on 62 attempts as the team’s goal line and short yardage back. James scored three touchdowns and averaged 3.9 yards per carry in Arizona last season, and his likely role in Seattle will somewhat mimic Duckett’s last season. He’s the goal line back in Seattle and Julius Jones’ change of pace in the committee approach.

Bills running back Fred Jackson aggravated a thumb injury during Tuesday’s practice and is going to undergo tests. Per Adam Schefter, the extent of the injury is currently unknown, but Jackson was in “obvious pain.” If it’s a sprain, he should be in the clear, but a dislocation could make him a question mark for Buffalo’s season opener. If Jackson is a no-show and Marshawn Lynch is suspended, the next in line is Dominic Rhodes.

Cleveland may have a running back controversy on its hands, in addition to the one at quarterback. Rookie James Davis is attempting to move ahead of incumbent Jamal Lewis, who had a disappointing 2008 season with 1,002 rushing yards and four scores. Per the report, Lewis looked “a little tentative and decidedly unquick” Saturday, while Davis was “quick, decisive and aggressive” rushing for 112 yards on 12 carries. Though it’s not expected the team will release Lewis in favor of Davis, don’t be surprised if Davis plays a bigger role in the offense than originally suspected, especially with Jerome Harrison riding a stationary bike in practice the past two weeks.

Wide Receivers

For the record, the Tennessee Titans are not interested in wide receiver Marvin Harrison. Per the Tennessean’s Jim Wyatt, coach Jeff Fisher has been “adamant about his non-interest in Harrison.” Only the media has kept the rumor alive to this point, so fans shouldn’t expect the team to sign the aging receiver who finished last season with 636 receiving yards and five touchdowns.

How Scheme Changes Affect Fantasy Performance (Part 3 of 4)

Wednesday, August 19th, 2009

This is part 3 of a four-part series detailing how scheme changes affect fantasy performance.  This excerpt focuses on the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks.  Please also check out Part 1 and Part 2.

 Denver [HC: McDaniels (Patriots), OC: McCoy (Panthers)]

With Josh McDaniels now at the helm, he will attempt to replicate the system he ran while offensive coordinator of the Patriots.  With the additions made to the offense, along with the incumbent starters, the personnel looks very similar to the 2008 version of the New England Patriots.  Kyle Orton is similar to Matt Cassel in terms of reading coverage and spreading the ball around to all the receivers.  What he lacks is the ability to gain yards with his legs and what the Broncos lack is a consistent deep threat like Randy Moss.  Orton’s numbers should fall in between his 2008 production and Cassel’s 2008 production-something along the lines of 3200 yards and 20 touchdowns.

The Randy Moss and Wes Welker roles in the Broncos offense will fall upon Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, respectively.  Royal should be able to match Welker’s numbers across the board.  They’re the same size with the same skill level and have the same responsibilities in terms of where they line up and also in the return game.  Marshall, however, lacks the speed to be the vertical threat that Moss was for New England.  Marshall is a very good receiver but can’t just run by people like Moss can and I see that as leading to a decline in touchdowns when compared to Moss.  While he is still a must-start fantasy WR and will get you over 1000 yards, I don’t see Marshall getting double digit touchdowns after only netting 6 last year.  Because of that, if you are in a PPR league, I would draft Royal ahead of Marshall.  Their yards will be about the same and Marshall may get only 2 or 3 more touchdowns than Royal; but that differential doesn’t make up for the 20-30 more receptions that Royal will get.  Jabar Gaffney will resume his role as the flanker and put up his pedestrian 400 yards while TE Tony Scheffler, who was once a rising fantasy star, will take a back seat in this scheme as the wide receivers are the focal points.  He’s still worth a look in later rounds as is any starting TE on a pass-oriented team because of the many red zone opportunities.

As he did in NE, McDaniels will employ a running-back-by-committee spearheaded by a young back.  Knowshon Moreno will fill the Laurence Maroney-role and should lead the Broncos in carries, albeit it may not be more than 15 a game.  LaMont Jordan comes over from NE as the goal-line back and offers little fantasy value besides that.  One interesting development through training camp and the preseason will be to see who emerges as the 3rd-down back.  As Kevin Faulk proved last year, this is a very valuable role in this type of offense as he posted nearly 1000 total yards and 6 touchdowns.  A PPR scoring system further increases the value so watch closely to see if Correll Buckhalter is able to win this job from a slew of young Bronco running backs.

Seattle [HC: Mora (Seahawks), OC: Knapp (Raiders)]

These two will reprise the same positions they had when they were with the Falcons from 2004-2006.  Knapp is unquestionably a run-first coordinator as in his eight years as offensive coordinator for three franchises, his teams have finished in the top 10 in rushing all eight years.  His zone blocking scheme is a perfect fit for RB Julius Jones who can use his great acceleration skills to burst through a hole.  From looking at lots of mock drafts, I can see that Jones is being undervalued as his average position is somewhere in the 100s.  If Warrick Dunn at 31 was able to run for over 1100 yards, then 28-year-old Julius Jones should get to at least 1000.  The only knock on him is the lack of touchdowns as the goal line back role will fall to T.J. Duckett.  He has had that role throughout his career and remains one of the best at fulfilling it.  He could be had at the end of the draft for a cheap source of touchdowns.

QB Matt Hasselbeck was hurt for most of last year and ineffective when he did play.  That means he will also be undervalued by many fantasy owners but you should not be “that guy” that drafts him four rounds too early thinking you would outsmart everyone.  Besides his health, another thing to monitor during preseason is how he adjusts to the new offense.  He had played in the West Coast Offense his entire career so he’ll have to make some amendments to his game in terms of playcalling, new receiver routes, and audibles.  According to Coach Mora, the Seahawks will use some shotgun this season so we still may get some of the Matt Hasselbeck of old.  But with the age, injuries, and offensive transition, I would be cautious in drafting Hasselbeck.  He’s no longer a fantasy starter so it may be best to grab him in the later rounds as your backup QB.

Has there ever been a more overrated receiver (fantasy-wise) than Deion Branch?  He’s always getting hurt, never has reached 1000 yards in a season, and doesn’t score many touchdowns.  I would not even draft Branch until he proves he can do at least one of those three.  Nate Burleson is also coming off an injury and will be either a #2 or #3 receiver in a run-dominated offense so I would also wait for him to prove that he’s healthy before inserting him into my starting lineup.  The two receivers worth starting each week are WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh and TE John Carlson.  T.J. is like a bigger version of Wes Welker or Eddie Royal-lots of receptions, around 1000 yards, and a low yards-per-reception average.  But T.J. has the size that allows him to be a better red zone option than the other two.  He will make a solid fantasy WR2 with the ability to be a WR1 in PPR leagues.  Since drops don’t result in negative fantasy points, John Carlson is worthy to be a starting TE on your fantasy team.  However, don’t expect to see an increase in production over last year as the offense will limit his opportunities.  He is now the second receiving option in the red zone so he likely won’t match his five touchdowns from last year.  Nevertheless, he will still catch upwards of 50 passes and approach 600 yards which is good enough to be a top-12 fantasy TE.