Overview

Oakland (1-2) can’t find an offense this season, and the performance of JaMarcus Russell is troubling. Many suggest he has regressed this season and the numbers validate that point: 41.3 percent completion rating, one touchdown, and four interceptions. If the Raiders don’t find some offense this week, it could wind up looking a lot like last week when the Broncos blew them out 23-3.

Houston (1-2), on the other hand, is the anti-Oakland; Matt Schaub has completed nearly 69 percent of his passes for 657 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception in Houston’s last two games. The obvious note to take is that, in spite of that, Houston has the same record as Oakland. The Raiders, who have scored 16 points in their last two games, and the Texans, who have scored 58, have the same record.

When Oakland has the ball …

… this is the week to score points. The Raiders have one glimmer on offense, the running game, and it’s going toe-to-toe with the league’s worst rushing defense. Houston has allowed 615 rushing yards in three games this season, and though the Raiders haven’t had a lot of luck running the ball — Darren McFadden and Michael Bush average a combined 3.8 yards per carry — the talent is there.

McFadden is explosive and the Texans may struggle to contain him, just as they have failed to contain Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson, and Thomas Jones this season. All three running backs broke 100 yards in their respective games against Houston, and Oakland’s only real shot in this one is to keep the ball out of Matt Schaub’s hands and make plays in the running game.

It would be nice to bank on JaMarcus Russell keeping pace with the Texans, but it’s a silly suggestion. Russell has looked worse in each progressing game this season: week one he completed 40.0 percent of his pass attempts for 208 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions; the following week he completed just 29.2 percent of his passes for 109 yards; and last week he completed 57.1 percent of his attempts for 68 yards and two interceptions. By every measure he has gotten worse and even against a poor defense like Houston, expecting more than 150 passing yards and a touchdown seems naive.

When Houston has the ball …

… they should not underestimate the Raiders’ defense. Oakland hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in a single game this season, despite facing San Diego week one. Furthmore, fantasy players should recognize that the Raiders held Philip Rivers to just one touchdown while forcing an interception.

In other words, Houston’s running backs — mainly Steve Slaton — should see more work this week against a Raiders defense that has allowed 155 rushing yards and one touchdown per game this season. Slaton is off to a slow start, but this may be the opponent to get him back on his feet.

That said, Houston’s passing game is very good. As noted in the overview, Matt Schaub has played stellar the past two weeks and this is a scary offense to face. At the same time, both Jacksonville and Tennessee — Houston’s last two opponents — have struggled throughout the season to stop quarterbacks. Compare that to Houston’s week one opponenent, the New York Jets, a team that has defended the pass very well this season and held Schaub to 166 passing yards and an interception week one.

I’m not necessarily suggesting Schaub will have a bad week, but it may not be the week some fantasy players expect when they Oakland’s name on the schedule.

The player who will no doubt have a good week is Andre Johnson. The Raiders have consistently allowed an opponents’ starting wide receiver to have a respectable game; that won’t change when they face arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL.

The advantage goes to …

Houston. Oakland simply doesn’t have enough offense to contend with Houston, and unless JaMarcus Russell pulls something out of a magic hat, this could be another tough loss for the Raiders.

Studs and Duds

Stud: Steve Slaton — Oakland has consistently given up yards and touchdowns to opposing running backs this season and with Chris Brown listed as questionable (shin), there’s no doubt Slaton will get the vast number of touches. Besides, Slaton has been a consistent contributor in the passing game with nine receptions for 97 yards this season. This week is lined up to be a 100-yard, touchdown matchup.

Dud: Anyone Involved in Oakland’s Passing Game — The Raiders have had almost no success passing the ball this season, and in spite of the fact Houston has allowed seven passing touchdowns, Russell is the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. If Kansas City kept him from completing 30 percent of his pass attempts, I doubt other NFL teams will have trouble.

It’s hard to believe Kurt Warner, one of the NFL’s premier quarterbacks, is being drafted as the 6th best in fantasy football leagues behind Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers. Granted, both Rivers and Rodgers are surrounded by talented players on their respective teams, but I don’t see Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, nor did I see them pass the ball for more than 4,500 yards last season.

Warner is playing in an offense that scored nearly 27 points per game last season and hasn’t lost any significant components in transitioning to this season. Boldin, despite his requests to be traded, is still starting at wide receiver, opposite of the league’s best, Larry Fitzgerald. Arizona added Chris Wells in the draft to split time with Tim Hightower, who last season scored 10 rushing touchdowns.

In other words, he’s undervalued.

Warner threw at least one touchdown pass in 15 games last season and completed at least 70 percent of his attempts in eight games. He had seven 300-yard games and four others in which he passed for at least 250 yards.

Those concerned the absence of last season’s offensive coordinator, Todd Haley (to Kansas City), should ditch their worries. In 2007 Ken Whisenhunt called the plays – Warner finished the season with 8 consecutive multiple-touchdown games. In just 14 games (only 11 of which he started) he passed for 27 touchdowns. Had he started from week one, there is little doubt in my mind he would have finished with 30-34 touchdowns.

We have consistency and outstanding production on the table. Is there any reason to suspect he won’t continue to produce like he has the past two seasons?

Unless you buy into “Murphy’s Law” for Super Bowl losers (“whatever can go wrong, will”), no. Warner may be a year older, but if he can play as well as he did last season, why suspect this season will be the breaking point? Edgerrin James is out of the equation, but it’s probably for the best. After all, he was responsible for just 12 of Warner’s completions and he rushed for just 514 yards and 3 touchdowns. He wasn’t a critical component in the offense, and his absence is unlikely to cause problems for the offense. If “Beanie” Wells can average at least four yards per carry and finish the year with 25 receptions, the offense won’t miss a beat.

Let’s get this straight: you have essentially the same offense, a rookie running back nearly a decade younger than Edgerrin James taking over the latter’s role, and an outstanding head coach. Where can you go wrong?

Most everyone will admit Warner is one of the best passing quarterbacks in the league. His quick release and smart throws took the Cardinals to the Super Bowl last season – just imagine where he can take your fantasy team this season.

Tom Brady. It’s hard to believe he missed an entire season with a knee injury, hard to believe we’re concerned he may never be the same quarterback.

I mean, he’s Tom Brady. The guy who put New England back on the map. The Golden Boy (even if he doesn’t like the nickname). The Super Bowl kid. The guy who looks like if he wasn’t working in the NFL he’d be in Hollywood.

Should we really be concerned with his injury? Reports coming out of New England have been very positive, the latest being from Ben Watson who said, “He’s definitely poised to come back and have a great year.”

But what exactly is a “great year” for Tom Brady?

Everyone remembers Brady throwing 50 touchdown passes during the Patriots 16-0 regular season to break Peyton Manning’s record during the most controversial NFL season in recent memory. Did everyone also forget that Tom Brady is supposed to be the Joe Montana of his generation, not the Dan Marino? Until 2007, he had put up respectable numbers throughout his career. He was a lock to throw around 25 or so touchdown passes and finish any given season with around 3,600 passing yards.

Those are very good numbers, solid QB1 numbers, but they aren’t draft-him-ahead-of-everyone-else numbers.

That leaves us with the question, which Tom Brady is going to show up this season? Or, which Patriots offense is going to take the field?

Indications suggest this offense work to strike a balance between running and passing the ball, ostensibly leaving Brady with fewer pass attempts and, thus, fewer opportunities to get injured. His career nearly ended 10 months ago; there’s no sense in rushing him back from recovery or pushing him to return to 2007’s form.

Even when the Patriots do throw the ball, however, just how good is this receiving corps? Randy Moss is 32 years old and Joey Galloway turns 38 this season, while the youngest of the starters, Wes Welker, remains a possession receiver in every sense of the term (lots a catches, 10 yard per reception average, relatively few touchdowns).

Can we really project Tom Brady to break 4,000 passing yards and throw 30-odd touchdowns? This offense doesn’t strike me as a light-up-the-scoreboard type. It strikes me as one built to win, but only if the defense continues to play well. I think it will finish 8th -10th in scoring at the end of the season, but I don’t think Brady is going to put up the numbers some are expecting. My guess is he finishes with around 3,800 passing yards and 26-28 touchdown passes. He’s a top five fantasy football quarterback in my book, too; I’d suggest drafting him after players like Brees and Manning – maybe even Warner.

Again, he’s a solid fantasy quarterback, and in terms of being a quarterback and a leader, he might just be the best of his generation. Remember: when you’re looking at him before your fantasy football draft, don’t forget that before he was a record-setter, Tom Brady was the Golden Boy – the Montana we had been awaiting, the antipodal Peyton Manning.

Tight ends are an interesting bunch of fantasy football players. They’re arguably the hardest to predict, outside of kickers and perhaps defenses, especially when you consider how inconsistent they can play throughout the course of a season.

But as the game has changed and philosophies adjusted with the times, the tight end position has evolved. Tight ends are faster than ever before, and if they can’t catch, they might as well move to the offensive line.

Tony Scheffler is one of these evolved players, a tight end who excels more as a receiver than a blocker. He’s fast, athletic, and he can catch better than some wide receivers, all of which might add up to make him even more valuable this season in Josh McDaniels’ new offense.

McDaniels isn’t known for making use of tight ends. In New England they weren’t often used as receivers, instead blocking for the most part. Because the Broncos have a better blocker in Daniel Graham, a former New Englander, Scheffler’s value is up in the air.

In practice this offseason Scheffler has been limited to playing opposite Graham in two tight end sets. That’s the role he played under Mike Shanahan, which may bode well for him when you consider he’s finished the past two seasons (29 games) with a combined 89 receptions for 1,194 yards and 8 touchdowns.

Of course it’s hard to project for a tight end under a new regime, especially when the coach is known for rarely using them as receivers. Scheffler will no doubt play a role in the offense and should finish with at least 35-40 receptions, but the bigger question is what he’ll average per catch next season. In 2008 he was picking up a stunning 16.1 yards per reception, but the season before he averaged just 11.2 yards. While an offensive coordinator in New England, McDaniels’ tight ends averaged around 11 yards per reception.

On the other hand, in 2006, McDaniels’ first season as the team’s offensive coordinator, tight end Ben Watson finished the season with 49 receptions and averaged 13.1 yards per reception. Who’s to say he won’t use Scheffler in a similar vein?

As for touchdowns, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Kyle Orton locked on to Scheffler and Graham in the red zone. Furthermore, if wide receiver Brandon Marshall happens to be traded as requested, Josh McDaniels may have no choice but to use the tight ends, especially Scheffler who is clearly the better receiver.

Interesting to consider is whether McDaniels will use Scheffler outside his usual role as a tight end at times this season. Scheffler draws parallels to Indianapolis Colts tight end Dallas Clark in build and athleticism. Seeing him play a hybrid role similar to Clark would be interesting, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the team used him there at different points during the course of the season.

Expect Scheffler to finish 2009 with around 45 receptions for 585 yards and 6 touchdowns. Those numbers could be enough to make Scheffler a top ten tight end and certainly a fantasy starter.

I’ve been previewing dozens of NFL players, and I decided that, with Andre Johnson, I’d try something a little bit different. Though I’ve been using the Sports Data Hub graphs (which you can learn more about by watching this short video) in a variety of player pages, I’ve never really devoted an entire post to a graphic, statistical investigation.

In short, this post is an experiment. It’s a unique way of looking at a player’s performance over seasons, and it’s a way of viewing his achievements in an uncommon light; forget about looking at his statistics in a purely textual manner, such as this or this. Reading numbers is boring and, after reviewing dozens of players, it can be mind-numbing.

Instead, it’s a heckuva lot more fun - and productive - to look at graphs.

At least, that’s what I think. But I’ll let you be the judge.

Note: when reading the 3-year statistics, keep in mind that Johnson has played 41 games since 2006. He played 9 games in 2007. His numbers that season: 60 receptions, 851 yards, and 8 touchdowns. He averaged, 94.6 yards and nearly 1 touchdown per game.

The most important thing to remember about Andre Johnson is how many receptions he commands. Over the past three seasons, he’s consistently caught a lot of balls - 275, as you see below. Since 2006, in fact, he’s finished behind just two receivers, Wes Welker and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, in terms of catches. His receptions have made him invaluable in PPR leagues.

More notable, Andre Johnson puts up his biggest numbers at home, as shown below. In fact, since 2006 no receiver has had more. Johnson has been head and shoulders above his peers, averaging 6 receptions more than his closest competitor, Reggie Wayne. Only 14 other NFL players are within 50 receptions of Johnson over that span.

But while Wes Welker and T.J. Houshmandzadeh have averaged just a tad over 1,000 receiving yards per season the past three years, Johnson brings a good yard per catch average to the table. He’s been picking up about 1,172 yards per year, and only three players have gained more.

A quick way for any fantasy player to pick up 10 points in a given game is by hitting the century mark. Last season, Johnson did it 8 times - or half the games he stepped on the field. Once he even broke 200 receiving yards, week 15 against the Oakland Raiders.

The only criticsm fantasy players seem to have against Johnson is his touchdown totals. But when you look at it, he’s actually been pretty solid. Sure, given how many receptions he’s had, the percentage that count for 6 isn’t high, but consider this: only 10 players have caught more touchdowns in the past three seasons. Again, Johnson missed 7 games; average his totals over a 48 game period and he could have had 25 touchdowns: only 3 players have had more than that.

To close the post, let’s look at one last graph. This one displays Johnson’s numbers in 2008 when Schaub wasn’t playing (he missed 5 games). You can see his production didn’t slip significantly. He still caught a total of 37 passes and was relatively consistent doing it. It’s obviously relevant since Schaub has yet to prove he can play 16 games in any given season, but the good news is Johnson is able to adjust and continue producing.

I hope you enjoyed this post and found it informative. It’s a unique way to look at statistics and it took me about five minutes to do the research for it.

Seriously.

Isn’t that better than the way you’ve been doing it?

Talk about taking a big step forward in a career.

In 2009, Philip Rivers went from “meh, he’s still a young quarterback with a lot to learn” to “oh, Jesus, thank you for making him available on my draft board for me!”

Allow me expand on those sentiments above: in 2007 Rivers took a step back and played with a lot of inconsistency. He passed for fewer yards and touchdowns and more interceptions than he had in 2006. There were games he looked like a rookie and others where his full potential shined through. Put it together and he was a tough player to peg for 2008, with most owners drafting him as a mid-lower QB1.

Long story short, he proved to be the best fantasy value ever.

Okay, that’s an exaggeration, but darn if he wasn’t right up there. Rivers led the Chargers to a division win (coming from behind and beating the Broncos in week 17 to do it, no less!) and to the divisional round of the playoffs where San Diego lost to the eventual Super Bowl champions. To sweeten the deal - and this is the part you actually care about, unless you bleed bolts of lightning - Rivers was unstoppable during the regular season. He passed for 4,009 yards, 34 touchdowns, and just 11 touchdowns. All while throwing just 478 pass attempts.

Wow.

Look at it this way: if he had thrown as many passes as Tom Brady did in 2007 he would have passed for more yards than the golden boy and, though obviously not as many as the Patriots quarterback, 41 touchdowns.

Now say it with me: Wow.

Alright, that takes care of my admiration for Rivers 2008 season. Good to get that off my chest. Now comes the part that some might criticize, so bear with me: Rivers is about to take a fairly significant step back in 2009.

Calm down, calm down. Let me explain: I don’t think Rivers is going to have a bad season by any measure, but does anyone really expect him to repeat what he did last year? He had a 7.1% touchdown percentage. In case you’re wondering, yeah, that’s pretty freakin’ good. To put it in perspective, Peyton Manning had a 4.9 last season and Donovan McNabb had a 4.0.

In order for Rivers to repeat last season’s numbers, two things have to happen: one, he can again stun the fantasy world with a 7.1 percent. Odds of it happening: slim. Like, Adrian Brody in The Pianist thin. Peyton Manning himself has had a percentage above 6.2 just once, and he’s never had at least 6.0 in consecutive seasons.

The other possibility is Rivers throwing significantly more passes. Odds of it happening: pretty unlikely. Think, I dunno, another Bush winding up in the White House unlikely. Rivers has played three consecutive full seasons, and he’s been rather consistent in one area: pass attempts. In 2006 and 2007 he tossed 460 passes, and in 2007 he threw 478. Don’t expect the number to rise much, if at all, in 2009; this is still a team with LaDainian Tomlinson who, wait a minute, was actually pretty good last season. This is still going to be a very balanced offense, and that means keeping Rivers pass attempts below 500.

Consider this: let’s say Rivers throws even 500 passes next season. If he has a very good, though not spectacular, touchdown percentage of 5.0, he’ll throw 25 touchdowns. That’s still pretty good. And if he can average about 7.4 yards per attempt, which is, again, a very good number, he’ll pass for 3,700 yards Throw in 12 interceptions to match last season’s excellent mark of around 2.3 percent, and you get a pretty good season.

But it’s not best in the NFL good; it’s not even top three good. To me, Rivers is probably a higher mid-range QB1 (5th-7th among his peers), and he shouldn’t be drafted higher. In order to justify it you must project either the offense to shift gears and start throwing the ball quite a bit more or set the bar very high for him.

Call me conservative, but I don’t buy it.

The Rams offense was awful last season.

It was awful the season before.

Injuries, underachievement, and questionable coaching led to the team once regarded as the “greatest show on turf” being reduced to averaging 14.5 points per game.

I’m sure there’s a new nickname for St. Louis, but it wouldn’t be flattering.

Still, somehow, in some wicked twist, Steven Jackson, though struggling through back-to-back injury riddled seasons, hasn’t succumbed to the curse Mike Martz must have casted on the rest of the franchise.

He’s been … good.

Sure, you can look at his season numbers from 2007 and 2008 without being wowed. 1,002 rushing yards and 1,042 yards in the two seasons, respectively. 12 rushing touchdowns between them.

But he played just 12 games in each. Consider if he kept his averages over a 12-game span in each. His numbers would have looked something like this:

2007: 316 carries, 1,336 rushing yards, 51 receptions, 361 receiving yards (that’s almost 1,700 net yards from scrimmage), and 8 touchdowns

2008: 337 carries, 1,389 rushing yards, 53 receptions, 505 receiving yards (that’s nearly 1,900 yards from scrimmage), and 11 touchdowns

In standard scoring leagues, Jackson averaged almost 14 points per game in 2007 and about 16 points per game in 2008.

The offense as a whole got worse, but Jackson maintained himself rather well, all things considered. Sure, he took a step back in 2007, but he leaped forward again in 2008. Both seasons were shortened by injuries, but just imagine if this team had any kind of passing game and fewer injuries.

Look at the graph to your right, displaying Jackson’s carries in games he played in 2008. (Where’d I get that?) Look at the consistency with which he played; he carried at least 20 times in every game he played between weeks 3-17, except week 9 (shortened due to injury) and week 14 (18 carries).

In other words, even though the offense is struggling to find itself, and will continue to do so in 2009, Steven Jackson has been, and is going to, get the rock a lot. He’s the one constant on this offense, the only player the team can count on to pick up yards on a consistent basis.

If he can avoid injuries in 2009, expect production and lots of it. Just don’t expect many touchdowns.

He is still playing for the Rams, after all.

Not many 33 year old players at a skill position are going to get a lot of hype these days, but Tony Gonzalez seems to be the exception to the rule. He’s been going strong for a decade now, having made the Pro Bowl every season since 1999.

And he’s not slowing down.

Last season was his best in five years, as Gonzo hauled in 96 receptions for 1,058 yards and 10 touchdowns. The five time NFL first team All-Pro led the Chiefs in all three of those categories, and he’ll no doubt make an impact with his new franchise and give his new quarterback, Matt Ryan, a lot to smile about. Matter of fact, his value really cannot be overstated in Atlanta.

Consider what he brings to the table: great blocking skills, smooth route running, and soft hands. He’s versatile, strong, and still better than just about any tight end in the NFL. He has a ton of experience, but he hasn’t lost a step yet.

Sound like qualities a quarterback can work with? That’s what I thought too.

But what I really like about Gonzalez is how much he can teach Matt Ryan and the other players on this offense. Gonzalez is good friends with Peyton Manning, and he’s been around long enough to know every trick of the trade. And now he’s ready to help Ryan in his next stage of development, all while joining a franchise on the cusp of major success.

So, yeah, you can probably guess I like Gonzalez.

I also happen to think he’s a pretty darn good fantasy prospect too.Remember, the Chiefs didn’t have a great offense last season. Thanks to him, however, they managed to put together a respectable passing game. He accounted for 10 of the team’s 23 passing touchdowns and nearly one-third of the team’s passing yards and completions.

If the Chiefs didn’t have Gonzalez a season ago, maybe Detroit wouldn’t have been the only team making history in the worst way possible. Just a thought.

Getting back to his value as a receiving target, however, consider that, among non-running backs, only Roddy White and Michael Jenkins had at least 25 receptions. Justin Peele led the tight ends with 15 receptions. Gonzalez had literally more than six times as many receptions.

Imagine what offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey is concocting now that he has someone of Gonzalez’s caliber on the roster. This offense is going to change, receptions are going to be redistributed, and the passing game is going to open up.

“With Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White and now myself, we have the chance to be in the top 5 in the league in offense every year,” says an elated Gonzalez. “How could I not be excited to join that team?”

Matt Ryan threw 434 passes last season. He’ll be throwing more frequently this in ‘09. Not a lot more, mind you; Gonzalez is perhaps just as valuable as a blocker as he is a receiver in the Falcons system. But can you see Gonzalez not racking up at least 70 receptions next season? Maybe even 80 if the Falcons pass considerably more? That’s less than he had in the more pass happy Chiefs system, but considerably more than the Atlanta tight ends before him.

Even though his receptions, and thus yards, will dip next season, Gonzalez will be most effective as a red zone target. He’s a great tight end, perhaps the best ever to play to position, and he’s going to give Ryan more options when the Falcons make it inside the 20. Roddy White led the team with 7 touchdown receptions, and Michael Jenkins was second with 3.

I think Gonzalez can catch at least 8 year one. Justin Peele had just 15 receptions, but 2 were touchdowns. Matt Ryan clearly liked throwing to a bigger target near the endzone. If Gonzalez has five times the number of receptions as Peele contributed, it’s fair to suggest he has at least four times as many touchdowns.

If you’re a fantasy player you get one of the top three tight ends in the league if you draft or trade for Tony Gonzalez. And if you’re the Atlanta Falcons?

“I’m looking forward to making a Super Bowl run in Atlanta every year for the next three or four years,” says Gonzalez.

Here’s to hoping you do, Tony.

Any Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson fans in the house?

Okay, okay … any non-Green Bay Packers/Chicago Bears/Detroit Lions fans who like Rosenfels or Jackson?

No? Nothing?

Alright, while all you Vikings fans pray for the return of Brett Favre, let’s assume Numero Cuatro doesn’t make a comeback. That leaves Minnesota with the two aforementioned quarterbacks, and some prognosticators, such as Fox’s Ed Thompson, fully believe Rosenfels will win out in the end.

But before I sell Sage Rosenfels as the best of the worst, which is the direction I’ve briefly taken with this article, let me point out a few facts.

First, Rosenfels isn’t necessarily the best quarterback Minnesota has on the roster. Tarvaris Jackson has made strides, his biggest flaws being a low completion percentage and trouble on third downs. One thing he holds over Rosenfels is touchdown-interception ratio. Jackson tossed 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions as the Vikings quarerback last season, whereas Rosenfels threw just 6 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in a reserve role with the Texans. More important, Jackson showed marked improvement between the beginning and end of the season when Minnesota came to its senses and realized Gus Frerotte doesn’t belong on an NFL roster. The result was a 3-1 finish to close the season and an NFC North division crown.

Consider his final four games for the Vikings last season. Jackson threw 8 touchdowns and 1 interception, tossing at least one pass for a score in each of those games. Furthermore, he completed 64 percent of his passes and in both games he attempted at least 20 passes, he threw for over 230 yards.

Those are impressive numbers by any standard.

Sage Rosenfels, on the other hand, was much different in his six games. He threw at least one interception in each game but was statistically superior to Jackon in a number of other ways. For example, he completed at least 60 percent of his passes in five games and passed for at least 200 yards in all games with at least 20 pass attempts. His yards per attempt average was at least 7.5 every week he was featured, and in his final three starts - arguably his best of the season - he completed 69 percent of his attempts, averaged 222 yards per game, and threw 2 touchdowns … but also 4 interceptions. Still, Houston was 2-1 in those games and 0-3 in his first three.

One can make the case both quarterbacks have serious flaws. For Jackson, it’s his struggles to complete a high percentage of his passes and his mistakes on third downs when Adrian Peterson can’t save the day. Rosenfels throws far too many interceptions during games, and this has been an affliction throughout his career.

I can’t say at this point who will start. Both quarterbacks seem to have a legitimate shot, and even after one wins the starting duties, it’s not clear how long he’ll be able to keep it. Jackson should have a leg up on Rosenfels because he knows this offense, and he knows what is expected of him. The newcomer needs to learn the playbook and understand there are two primary goals he must meet in Minnesota: don’t throw interceptions and convert third downs. Adrian Peterson will shoulder the rest.

Given those goals, Jackson is the better quarterback in my perspective. He showed a lot of maturity and improvement in the final four games of the regular season, though fans’ selective memories probably paint him as the guy who completed 43 percent of his passes in a postseason loss to Philadelphia. He’s more careful with the football than Rosenfels, and he also was more effective with it at the end of the season.

If Rosenfels gets the start he’s probably not going to throw more touchdowns than Jackson, but there is a very good chance he will throw more interceptions. It’s always difficult to compare players on different rosters, but Rosenfels has never been a quarterback to throw a lot of touchdowns and just a few interceptions. On the same token, Jackson’s progress last season doesn’t feel like a fluke; granted, his opposition was weak in the final games of the season, playing against competition that had already secured its spot in or out of the playoffs. The only game that didn’t hold true was against Atlanta week 16, a game the Vikings lost. But it’s hard to pit the blame on Jackson, who completed 61.1 percent of his passes for 233 yards and 2 touchdowns.

It’s difficult to say who will win the starting role for Minnesota or how long he’ll hang on to it. Some things do seem certain, however: neither is going to attempt more than 30 passes most weeks of the season, nor will the starter frequently pass for more than 200 yards. At the end of the season, I’m projecting the two to combine for a total of 3,200 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. Those are QB2 numbers, but neither quarterback is worth a draft pick. Instead, wait for favorable matchups and pick the starter off the waiver wire when needed.

Rookie quarterbacks are accustomed to high expectations, but last season the bar was raised a little higher. AP Rookie of the Year Matt Ryan and Diet Pepsi Rookie of the Year Joe Flacco (yup, they each got an award) have shown that it’s possible for a rookie quarterback to succeed in getting wins and, from a fantasy perspective, posting QB2 numbers.

Enter Mark Sanchez.

A few months prior to the draft he was little more than an afterthought on the minds of most. Matthew Stafford was The Guy. He was the franchise quarterback. As the draft drew near, however, the mindset shifted as Sanchez stringed together some impressive workouts, showcasing his USC-quality passing accuracy and wowing scouts.

And then it happened: Sanchez was drafted by the New York Jets. The New York Freakin’ Jets. Welcome to the NFL, Mark Sanchez - you’ve just been given a gift from the football gods.

Yes, he’s going to be playing in one of the league’s toughest divisions, headlined by the New England Patriots and complemented by last season’s winner, Miami, and the up-and-coming Buffalo Bills. But he’s also going to be playing for a team starving for a postseason berth, a team with a new head coach, Rex Ryan, who’s giving fans plenty of hope.

Fans saw last season what happened when new head coaches and rookie quarterbacks found franchises in needs: both Baltimore and Atlanta finished 11-5 and found themselves in the postseason, Baltimore going as far as the AFC Championship game.

Now it’s Sanchez’s turn. He’s taking over for the legendary Brett Favre, who had the Jets on the right track before stumbling (or perhaps rolling down an escalator going up) in the final weeks of the season. Still, Favre showed that this offense has potential if the right quarterback shows up.

Right now Sanchez is struggling in the Jets OTA’s, as more than a few New York newspapers are willing to point out, but he’s also showing improvement, as head coach Rex Ryan is ready to contend.

“We’re throwing him right to the wolves and I like the way he’s responding,” says Ryan.

And for his part, Sanchez is more than willing to be part of a baptism by fire.

“As a rookie this is the way you want it,” Sanchez said. “You want to be thrown into the fire right away. You want it to be tough.”

I doubt anyone could expect anything more from the rookie quarterback. The important thing is how hard he’s working, Sanchez going so far as to joke he’s “made friends with the cleanup crew” by staying so late, adding he wants to master the playbook and offense “15 minutes ago.”

From a fantasy football perspective, his struggles at this stage are anything but alarming. No one expects him to step on the field week one to pass for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns; all anyone can look to get out of him year one is a solid rookie display: think somewhere between Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco, assuming Jets running back Thomas Jones plays as well as he did last season. If Sanchez can close the season with 2,800 passing yards and 15 touchdowns, I’d call it a great success. A little less and it won’t be a disappointment, though obviously there is a line in the sand (typically throwing more interceptions than touchdowns is considered crossing the “disappointment” barrier). Those numbers qualify him as a low-end QB2, and one certainly worth drafting a bit higher in dynasty leagues, which hold over players from the season before.

Sanchez is developing and learning. That’s all anyone can ask. More impressive from my perspective is his eagerness to develop and learn within this offense; that’s what can separate him and push him from “good” to “great” in a hurry.