The Green Bay Packers are 5-5, but the record doesn’t do justice to the team’s talent. It’s hardly a stretch to suggest the Packers could quite easily have three more wins when considering three losses were within three points.

Unfortunately, talent can carry a team just so far. It doesn’t matter that Aaron Rodgers is a fantastic quarterback or that Green Bay has one of the league’s most underrated defenses; when it’s all said and done, the record is what counts. Nothing else.

Of course, there is some very good news for cheeseheads reading this. Green Bay might have a 5-5 record, but that’s enough to keep it atop the NFC North. Minnesota and Chicago have the same record, but both teams are shaky at best. It’s heartening to consider that the Packers are 3-1 in division games, the most recent victory being a rout over the Bears. It is also worth noting that Green Bay’s one division loss was a one-point loss at Minnesota, a game that Green Bay would have won if Adrian Peterson wasn’t so darn impressive and Mason Crosby had nailed the game-winning field goal.

Are the Packers good enough to make a run in the postseason, assuming they get that far? Well, it’s a bit complicated.

Green Bay is not without weaknesses, but some have been a bit exaggerated. For example, many pundits are quick to point out that the offense has had trouble running the ball. While this is true to some degree, it’s a flawed argument. Consider Ryan Grant’s last six starts: in each he rushed for at least 75 yards. And in three of Green Bay’s last four games he found his way to the endzone. His yard per carry average this season is also deceptive; he has kept it at a level of 4.3 or higher in his last three starts.

Watching the Packers, I’ve picked up on two more troubling observations. First, Green Bay’s offense moves the ball down the field but sometimes has trouble scoring touchdowns; it seems that Coach Mike McCarthy has no problem settling for field goals. That wouldn’t be a big issue but it has kept the Packers from pulling away and winning several games. The most obvious of these was the loss against Tennessee. Green Bay’s offense had 390 yards but scored just one touchdown. Green Bay was able to move the ball; in fact, all three of the field-goal scoring drives were of at least 51 yards. Not scoring touchdowns allowed Tennessee to hang with Green Bay in a game that could have been won by the Packers.

Second, Green Bay has an outstanding defense. I don’t know anyone who would deny that. But near the end of close games, fans can witness it changing its gameplan to avoid giving up anything too big. This “prevent defense” cost them victories against both Tennessee and Minnesota. In the former, Green Bay couldn’t stop Kerry Collins from driving the Titans straight down the field at the end of the fourth quarter, nor could the Packers stop the run in overtime. Against Minnesota, Adrian Peterson picked the Packers apart in the fourth quarter. Somehow - I’m not certain how this could happen - the Packers appeared to forget Peterson is the Vikings’ best player.

To return to the original question, can the Packers make a run in the postseason? Absolutely, but it will take the right coaching. The defense is loaded with ball hawks in the secondary and has little trouble forcing turnovers. On offense, as pointed out earlier, the Packers running game has been improving in recent weeks, whilst Aaron Rodgers may be considered the best first year starter in the NFL this season in not one of the league’s best starters. Green Bay’s fate this season is heavily dependent on Mike McCarthy. He has been given a great group of athletes - now it is his responsibility to steer them to a championship.

—-

On a side note that is completely unrelated to this post, I’d like to thank everyone who has read this blog. I looked at my profile today and noticed that my blogs have drawn one million views.

Thank you to everyone who has taken the time to read my thoughts on the NFL and fantasy football.

Sincerely,
Tom Van Wyhe

The Denver Broncos are 3-0 right now, but pundits everywhere are hesitant to give them too much praise. During last night’s broadcast of Sunday Night Football, Chris Collinsworth and the rest of the team refused to acknowledge that the team is “for real.” Instead members opted to pick Tennessee and Buffalo as the AFC’s surprises that aren’t just getting lucky.

To be honest, it’s a bit startling that no one wants to pick the Broncos to win anything, despite the team’s incredibly productive offense. The Broncos are averaging 38.0 points per game this season; that’s the best mark in the NFL. The only problem is, the defense is allowing 28.0 points per game(28th) and that includes a game in which the Broncos allowed just seven points (week one vs. Oakland). The defense’s biggest weakness: pass coverage. In terms of yardage Denver falls in at dead last in the NFL, allowing opponents to pass for over 315 yards per contest.

The good news is that Denver does have a lot (A LOT) of talent on offense, and that keeps the team ahead of its opponents. Jay Cutler is quickly establishing himself as a top five quarterback in the NFL. Only Drew Brees, who ironically got a good chunk of his passing yards against the Broncos Sunday, has more passing yards this season, and Cutler’s 8 touchdowns easily place him at the top of the NFL in that category, 2 ahead of anyone else. Better yet, he doesn’t make a lot of mistakes; he has just two interceptions this season, fewer than anyone with as many pass attempts as him.

And he’s taking advantage of a very young group of pass catchers. Tony Scheffler and Brandon Marshall, who last week set a franchise record for receptions in a single game with 18, were both taken in the same draft class as Cutler. An interesting fact to consider is that Marshall, who missed week one with a suspension, is still ranked second in the NFL in catches this season with 24. And the speedy rookie Eddie Royal, who started while Marshall missed time, continues to make defenses look silly; he’s tied for 7th in the NFL in receptions this season. All three players have caught two touchdowns this season, and Scheffler is tied for the lead in that category.

Not surprisingly, the Broncos are the undefeated team in the NFL to be allowing more than three touchdowns, or 21 points, per game. Four of the other five unbeatens have allowed fewer than 17 points per contest. In fact, the closest team to Denver in terms of weak defense is New Orleans; and at 1-2, they’re currently ranked 4th in the NFC South. Denver, meanwhile, already has a two game lead on the division.

The question we must ask now is, how long can this winning last? The Broncos have also been on the receiving end of some good fortune in the past two weeks. In week two against the San Diego Chargers, Ed Hocculi blew a call that gave the Broncos a second chance (which they capitalized on), and yesterday the Saints’ Martin Grammatica blew a field goal that would have given the Saints the lead with less than two minutes to play. In other words, the Broncos are this close to being 1-2. Now, I will admit that the winningest teams in the NFL always have luck on their side; however, at some point you have to say, well, it’s great the Denver can put up almost 40 points per game, but shouldn’t they start keeping opponents off the board, too?

Consider the last two Super Bowl champions, the New York Giants and Indianapolis Colts. Neither team had a great defense during the regular season; the Giants ranked 17th in points allowed and the Colts ranked 23rd. But they stepped it up in the postseason, and each team allowed 20+ points just once in the playoffs. And it bears pointing out that the Colts beat the Patriots 38-34 in the AFC Championship game.

The eight Super Bowls winners before that? No team ranked out of the top ten and six of the champs had a top five defense.

In other words, it’s best if the Broncos keep scoring 38 points a game, and maybe every once in a while the team can keep a good opponent below 30 points. Besides, it’s the postseason that matters, so Denver has 14 more games to figure out how to cover. Hope they do, Broncos fans, hope they do.

Since the Broncos won back-to-back Super Bowls in 1998-1999, the AFC has largely been responsible for winning the league’s championship games. The Patriots, dubbed the 2000s “dynasty” won three, while the Ravens, Colts, and Steelers have chipped in to win another three. In other words, the AFC has won eight of the past eleven Super Bowls and that has prompted some talking heads to say in recent years that the level of competition and parity has gone down considerably and the AFC is top-heavy.

Is that still true?

This season the AFC’s three preseason favorites all look relatively weak when compared with the NFC’s top bundle. The Patriots are without Tom Brady for the remainder of the season and the team was just destroyed by the Miami Dolphins; the Colts as a whole aren’t looking particularly good with an injured Bob Sanders and Peyton Manning still looking rusty in the pocket; and the San Diego Chargers are 0-2 right now and without Shawn Merriman for the rest of the season.

Compare that with the Dallas Cowboys, who are arguably the most talented team in the NFL; the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants are undefeated at this point (and could push the Chargers to 0-3 tomorrow night); and the Green Bay Packers look very strong, with Aaron Rodgers impressing, nay, wowing, even his greatest critics. Throw into the mix the Arizona Cardinals - a team that has looked solid to this point - the Philadelphia Eagles - with one of the NFL’s best offenses - and the Washington Redskins - one of those black horse teams that sneaks up and bites a favorite - and you have the makings of a conference that, when compared to the AFC, looks more top heavy and dominant this season.

The AFC South, which was predicted to be one of the league’s best divisions, now looks comparitively weak. The Titans lead with a 3-0 record and have looked good this season, but the two favorites, Jacksonville and Indianapolis, have looked anything but. And the Texans, though only 0-2, simply aren’t looking as good as they should.

No, it appears that the AFC’s strongest three teams this season are the Denver Broncos (2-0 at the time of this writing and dominating the New Orleans Saints), Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0 and losing,  7-3, at the time of this writing), and the Titans (3-0, but Kerry Collins is the team’s starting quarterback). The Chargers might too be among the best, a team that has so far lost two games on last second, heart breaking drives, but another early season loss and they might wind up a Wild Card team that will play its postseason on the road. Even the lowly Raiders are ahead of them in the division.

So has the distribution of top-level talent and coaching shifted to the NFC again, after a decade-long run for the AFC? It’s certainly beginning to look that way; in fact, it almost appears that the worst team in the NFC East would be able to defeat 80 percent of the AFC.

Which Conference Won, When? (Try saying that five times fast.)

1970-1980 - AFC (The Pittsburgh Steelers were a dynasty, while the Oakland Raiders and Miami Dolphins were just unlucky to be in the same conference. Between 1970-1979, the AFC snagged eight Super Bowls and only one NFC team - the Dallas Cowboys - was able to win a Super Bowl.)

1981-1996 - NFC (The NFC won 15 of the possible 16 Super Bowls in this span and sparked two separate dynasties: the 49ers of the 1980s and the Dallas Cowboys of the 1990s. The Raiders, who won in 1982, were the only franchise to win one during the AFC’s drought.)

1997-2006 - AFC (In a ten year span the AFC won 8 Super Bowls, with the Patriots leading the way with three and the Broncos being the only other team with at least two. In fact, seven different teams won a Super Bowl in that span, making those ten years the most diverse in NFL history, and I’m certain the next ten will continue that trend.)

*My favorites in each conference are marked with an asterisk

The Best Odds

New England Patriots (3/1) - Not surprisingly, the Patriots are once again the NFL’s Super Bowl favorite, only weeks after losing what would have made the 2007 season historic. 2008 won’t see the bullseye pulled from their backs, though, and Bill Belichick’s reputation as a “genius” has been replaced with “cheater.” How the team reacts and pulls together will be interesting, but you can bet they’ll be tough to beat.

San Diego Chargers (7/2) - It’s somewhat surprising to see the San Diego Chargers favored this much after a season in which LaDainian Tomlinson stumbled out of the gate and Philip Rivers struggled throughout the season, whether it was on the field against opposing defenses or on the sideline screaming at opponents’ fans. That said, the Chargers are an immensely talented team with high expectations.

*Indianapolis Colts (7/1) - With the announcement Tony Dungy will return for 2008, the Colts remain one of the most dominant teams in the AFC. Led by future hall of fame quarterback Peyton Manning, the Colts show few weaknesses and are a lock to win 12 games year in and out. Don’t be shocked to see Indianapolis in the AFC Championship game next season.

Dallas Cowboys (7/1) - The Cowboys hopes for a title hinge on the performance of Tony Romo and the attitude of Terrell Owens. While T.O. impressed critics this season by standing at his quarterback’s side during the good and bad, no one is ready to let him off the hook yet. And with Tony Romo’s romantic escapades ending up on the front page of grocery store tabloids, the Cowboys appear to be the one favorite that should be bracing for a meltdown. 

The Almost There’s

New York Giants (12/1) - After an amazing run in 2007, made all the sweeter by hometown columnist’s expectations for implosion, the Giants are, for the first time in years, a favorite in the NFC. Thanks to the maturity of Eli Manning and the phenomenal performance on the defensive end, the Giants won the Super Bowl. It was even more satisfying that Tiki Barber, who retired prior to the season, was a constant critic of Eli Manning’s leadership skills and Tom Coughlin’s coaching.

*Green Bay Packers (14/1) - The Packers shocked the football world last season by making it as far as the NFC Title game with the youngest team in the NFL. Assuming Brett Favre returns, the Packers will once again be a formidable foe in the NFC. And with almost a full year experience under Ryan Grant’s belt and the constant growth at the receiver position, the Packers are a good bet to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

Jacksonville Jaguars (15/1) - Jack Del Rio coaches a physical team that runs the ball effectively and shuts down opposing offenses. Unfortunately, a team like his doesn’t often win the Super Bowl in today’s game because it has troubles against teams like the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts, franchises with great quarterbacks and fast offenses.

Pittsburgh Steelers (20/1) - Mike Tomlin’s first season as a head coach can be considered a success. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger exceeded expectations and bumped his status to being considered among the elite at his position while Willie Parker was brilliant on the field and Pittsburgh’s famed defense continued to play solid football. Not bad for a rookie. 2008 will only see improvement, which is a bit scary for opponents.

For more odds, check this out. Leave your own predictions and thoughts in the comments.

Both parties had a responsibility to uphold the image of the league, but both have sadly done no such thing. Belichick, for all his coaching genius, still needed to resort to taping opponents and using that film footage (and, presumably, other forms of spying) to win games. I guess he learned the first time around coaching the Cleveland Browns that his teams would need an edge in any games they played.

But though he cheated the game and its integrity, Roger Goodell has questionably destroyed evidence of that fact. That’s a bit odd, to say the least. In fact, it’s more than odd. It’s downright suspicious. And when he was called on it (by the US government, no less), he folded and admitted the Patriots were taping, but also believes that destroying the tapes was “the right thing to do.”

How? How was it the right thing to do? Was there any reason for it? Goodell tried to explain that the tapes were destroyed to keep them out of competitors hands. But Specter isn’t so sure.

”What’s that got to do with it? There’s an admission of guilt, you preserve the evidence,” Specter said. As for keeping the tapes out of the hands of others: “All you have to do is lock up the tapes.”

As the report continues,

Still, Specter wants to know why penalties were imposed on Belichick before the full extent of the wrongdoing was known and the tapes destroyed in a two-week span. Asked if he thinks there was a coverup, Specter demurred.

”There was an enormous amount of haste,” Specter said.

Well that’s great. The sport I love may be part of a conspiracy theory. One that might actually make sense, no less. And that’s a little scary.

This is what the feeling would be if the ‘85 Patriots had upset the Bears. If the ‘72 Dolphins hadn’t been able to close out the only perfect season in NFL history (still).

This is a game where the team everyone outside the Boston metropolitan area cheered for won. This was an underdog whose coach and starting quarterback were on the hot seat before the season. This was an NFC team beating the best team in the AFC.

So much for the Patriots being the greatest team in NFL history. Said Jimmy Johnson: “This was a game where the best team won.” 

It was also the game where the favorite won. And I’m not talking about the spread. 

Total Sacks Recorded by Each Team - 4

My Pick: Over

Tom Brady has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL (and one of the most underrated), but the Giants will likely find a way to him at least twice during the game. And the Packers proved two weeks ago that Eli Manning’s own line is vulnerable (and hurting), so expect him to taste turf a few times.

New York Giants Total Team Points - 21.5

My Pick: Over

Can the Patriots really shut down the Giants? My money says, “no.” Three touchdowns and a field goal shouldn’t be too difficult a task for the Giants, a team that has scored more than 21 points four of its last five games (the one they didn’t score more, the Giants scored 21) including a game against the Patriots when the Giants dropped 35 on New England. And in this game, the Giants know they’ll need to score a lot. 

I mean, really. Was this necessary at all? Couldn’t the newspaper sell this after the Patriots win the Super Bowl (assuming they do). If anyone was on the fence as to who he or she should cheer for in this game, I think the Boston Globe has made it easier to pick the Giants.

As for a little piece of irony: the Boston Globe is owned and operated by the New York Times. Perhaps New York is planning some sort of elaborate jinx.

Joe Montana. Terry Bradshaw. Joe Namath. Tom Brady. These quarterbacks defined their careers by winning the Super Bowl. As the pressure intensified, these guys found a way to not only keep their cool, but also play their best football.

How important is a guy like that a Super Bowl champion? Let’s look at past Super Bowl winners and their starting quarterbacks, over the past ten seasons:

• XXXII - Denver Broncos - John Elway
• XXXIII - Denver Broncos - John Elway
• XXXIV - St. Louis Rams - Kurt Warner
  
• XXXV - Baltimore Ravens - Trent Dilfer
• XXXVI - New England Patriots - Tom Brady
• XXXVII - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Brad Johnson
• XXXVIII - New England Patriots - Tom Brady
• XXXIX - New England Patriots - Tom Brady
• XL - Pittsburgh Steelers - Ben Roethlisberger
• XLI - Indianapolis Colts - Peyton Manning
  

Of those seven quarterbacks, one is currently in the hall of fame (John Elway) while two others (Brady and Manning) are certain to find their own busts there once each illustrious career concludes.

Though Kurt Warner may never see the hall of fame himself, he’s a proven quarterback. Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, and Ben Roethlisberger (at this point) were/are by no means great quarterbacks, but they did something very important: they didn’t make a lot of mistakes with the football. The average number of interceptions among the group is a mere 10.7 per season. Very cautious and often smart with the football, all three avoided creating turnovers. All three also benefited from having the league’s best scoring defense the season they won a ring.

Something that is interesting, of the seven quarterbacks, only two were at least 30 years old at the time of the Super Bowl. Kurt Warner was 28 and in only his second NFL season; Trent Dilfer was 28; Tom Brady won his first Super Bowl at age 25, his first season as a starting quarterback; Ben Roethlisberger, in his second NFL season, was 23; and Peyton Manning was 29 years old, though in his ninth season as a starting quarterback in the NFL.

So clearly, age isn’t the most relavent measure of a quarterback. Offensive production? Everyone but Dilfer and Roethlisberger threw at least twenty touchdown passes the season they won they Super Bowl while Manning and Warner each managed at least 30 (Manning - 31; Warner - 41).

Also, only two (three if you don’t consider Warner) quarterbacks on the list were not considered franchise quarterbacks at the time of winning the big game.

How does all this apply to the postseason this year? Basically, a team without a great defense (as in, best in the league) needs a great quarterback to win a ring. A team with a great defense still needs a player who is at least smart with the football (and typically a very good running game).

Quarterbacks and teams that definitely fit the qualifications this season:

• Brett Favre (to go out on top like Elway?)
• Peyton Manning (to repeat?)
• Tom Brady (to win his fourth?).

On the edge:

• Dallas and Tony Romo (in only his second season)
  
• Jacksonville and David Garrard (smart with the football during the regular season; has a very good defense; complemented by excellent running game; similar to XL’s Steelers).

On the outside looking in:  

• New York and Eli Manning (brutally inconsistent)
• Seattle and Matt Hasselbeck (not complemented by a good running game; not very productive in first playoff game)
• San Diego and Philip Rivers (not a good quarterback when San Diego’s running game breaks down; inconsistent)

Over the past several seasons — thanks (or no thanks, depending on your perspective) in no small part to the Colts — this rule of thumb has come under heavy fire. After the Colts won the Super Bowl last season with one of the worst rush defenses in NFL history (and defeated the NFL’s best defense in the big game), fans questioned whether or not defenses really do win championships.

How about a little pop quiz: quick, how many Super Bowl winners (over the past 10 years) have had a defense that finished in the top five in points allowed (during the regular season)? If you guessed six, congratulations. Only the 1997 Broncos (finished 6th), 1998 Broncos (8th), 2001 Patriots (6th), and 2006 Colts (23rd, an anomaly) had a defense that wasn’t in the top five of the NFL. Of course, nine of the ten teams were in the top 10.

Now, how many of those teams had a top five scoring offense? That would be five teams. Another two finished in the top ten, while the 2003 Patriots had the 12th ranked scoring offense, the 2002 Buccaneers ranked 18th, and the 2000 Ravens ranked 14th. Of course, all three of those teams also had the number one scoring defense that season.

Interesting, isn’t it? 

The truth is, teams don’t go far with a little of both. A great defense is a must, if you look back over the past twenty years you’ll see that great offenses still won Super Bowls.

Take a look at this: between 1987-1999 (before the Baltimore Ravense won the Super Bowl), only the 1990 New York Giants didn’t have both a top ten offense and defense. Since then, however, the Ravens, Buccaneers, Colts, and Patriots have won without either a top ten scoring offense or defense.

But that said, no Super Bowl winner (over the past twenty seasons) has ever had a bad offense or defense. There have been teams with average squads, but they were always balanced by dominance on the other side of the football (always the best scoring offense or defense).

Will this information help you pick a winner this year? Maybe not, but it does perhaps eliminate at least one team (possibly two) from the fray: the New York Giants had neither a top 10 offense or defense during the regular season. The Dallas Cowboys, meanwhile, didn’t have a top ten defense and the offense was ranked second in the NFL (not first, as other past winners).

Oh, and every Super Bowl winner over the past ten years has had either a top five offense or defense. That (potentially) eliminates Seattle Seahawks (6th ranked defense; 9th ranked offense), and Jacksonville Jaguars (10th ranked defense; 6th ranked offense).

For those of you a bit confused, that leaves the Patriots, Chargers, Colts, and Packers as Super Bowl favorites (based purely off scoring offense/defense).

But, really, from a gut-feeling standpoint, any of the teams can be considered as a Super Bowl favorite.

One that does statistically stick out (had one not watched the regular season and based all knowledge purely off rankings): the Indianapolis Colts. With the league’s best scoring defense, Indianapolis has the football purist’s maxim in their favor while still possessing the third best offense in the NFL.

So what will the championship this season?