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Posts Tagged ‘Tennessee Titans’

The Chance a Fantasy Owner Takes with a One-Dimensional Goal Line Back

Tuesday, November 25th, 2008

LenDale White, like all goal line backs, is in an odd position from a fantasy football perspective. He’s easy to love because his bulldozer mentality and extra bulk have led him to handling plenty of goal line carries and, more often than not, touchdowns. But because he is part of an ultra-successful running back by committee with rookie Chris Johnson, he doesn’t often get enough carries to score a substantial number of fantasy points in other categories.

One dimensional backs like White rarely earn a roster spot in fantasy football. Goal line backs are easy to get attached to because they frequent the endzone, but yards are as important and oftentimes more so. One touchdown is a quick 6 points, but not scoring is 0 points. In other words, goal line backs are typically all-or-nothing propositions.

Consider the example of teammates Chris Johnson (the “speed” back) and LenDale White (the “goal line” back). (Warning: the following arguments are laced with statistics; you are advised to read carefully.) The “speed” back handles more carries and averages more yards per touch because he handles the ball when the offense can afford diversify its play-calls. This leads to a much more impressive yard per carry average, and because the “speed” back also handles more carries, his overall rushing total is far superior. In the case of Johnson and White, the former carries more often by an approximate 4-3 ratio (183-127, through 11 games), yet the ratio between the two backs’ rushing yards is nearly 2-1, in favor of Johnson (833-469, through 11 games). Despite the fact that White’s rushing touchdown ratio is at an advantage greater than 2-1 (11-5), Johnson’s rushing yards alone make up the difference, assuming fantasy league scoring awards 1 point per 10 rushing yards and 6 points per touchdown. The two runners’ fantasy point totals in such a league would equate to 133.3 (Johnson) and 112.9 (White).

In addition to handling fewer carries during the course of a game, goal line backs are also at a disadvantage when the offense passes the ball. Ideally, on passing downs and other downs in which an offense has the option to either run or throw, it will put as much quickness and receiving ability on the field. In the case of Johnson and White, the disparity is particularly significant. Johnson has 33 receptions, 218 yards, and 1 receiving touchdown this season, while his teammate has just 4 receptions for 14 yards. If a hypothetical fantasy league awards 1 point per 10 yards receiving and 6 points per touchdown, those receiving totals equate to 27.8 additional fantasy points for Johnson and 1.4 points for White. Add the rushing and receiving totals together, and Johnson has 161.1 fantasy points and White has 114.3 fantasy points

In addition, I noted earlier (and highlighted) that goal line backs are oftentimes “all-or-nothing propositions.” By this I mean it’s great if a goal line back scores a lot of touchdowns over the course of a season, but fantasy owners live week-to-week. White has been an exception in the sense he scores most weeks (eight of eleven starts this season), but what about the games he doesn’t score? He doesn’t often rush for a significant number of yards (he’s been over 100 yards once; under 60 yards in nine games; and averages just 42.6 yards per game), nor does he play a role in the offense when Kerry Collins is throwing the ball. Consequently, not scoring a touchdown may mean the difference between 4 points and 10 points, based on his weekly average. To put it another way, if his yards live up to his season average but his touchdowns do not, his scoring is 60 percent lower than the average.

To clarify the above (with fewer numbers), consider: Chris Johnson, who splits a fair number of carries with White and doesn’t get as many goal line carries, has scored significantly more fantasy points over the course of the season and has been a safer week-to-week starter because it can be assumed he’ll get a decent number of touches (he averages 20 per week) and yards (about 95-96 per week) to lessen the effect of not scoring a touchdown in a given game.

Do not misinterpret, however. Touchdowns are an important aspect of fantasy football, and I am not trying to argue otherwise. What I am suggesting is that touchdowns are not the be all and end all of fantasy football. Consider the following analogy: it is wise to build a diverse stock portfolio to minimize risks; similarly, in fantasy football it’s wise to have players that get a score fantasy points in a variety of ways. Diversity, over the course of a season, always beats one-dimensionality.

Fantasy Football Love/Hate: Tennessee at Chicago

Friday, November 7th, 2008

The Lowdown

Uh-oh, it’s a defensive showdown Sunday when Tennessee travels to the Windy City after defeating another NFC North team, Green Bay. Meanwhile Chicago may be without Kyle Orton (which means Grossman could start) and Kerry Collins continues to leave fantasy players scratching their heads.

Love ‘em

Chris Johnson and LenDale White - TEN - RB - There isn’t a lot to love in this game, but these two runners have been incredible this season. Granted, they’ll face a stiff defense in Chicago, but take solace in this: Chris Johnson has rushed for at least one touchdown in his last three starts and in four of his last five starts, and he’s netted at least 90 yards in his last three starts; and LenDale White has scored 10 touchdowns this season and more than one in three games.

Matt Forte - CHI - RB - Okay, maybe “love” is a bit strong, but I do know this: the temperature could dip to freezing during the game, and wind could play a significant factor in the running game. Translation: Forte should get plenty of carries. Tennessee has a tough run defense, but Forte is a downhill runner who has scored in three of his last four starts. Chicago will probably try keeping the ball on the ground to prevent turnovers, and Forte should find the endzone at least once. Hopefully.

Hate ‘em

Anyone Who Considers Himself a Receiver or Part of the Passing Game - TEN/CHI - QB/WR/TE - In Tennessee, Kerry Collins has three passing touchdowns this season, and no one on the team has more than 1. In fact, no one on the team has at least 350 receiving yards this season either. And only one player (Bo Scaife) has at least 225. The top two targets in Chicago are tight ends, both of which play a solid role on gameday. Problem is, you have to wonder how often Chicago finds the endzone in this game and how many of those scores will be passing. Play it safe and keep them on the bench.

Green Bay at Tennessee Fantasy Football Recap

Sunday, November 2nd, 2008

Summary

Green Bay and Tennessee played a heated defensive game in which only two touchdowns were scored. The Packers defense fell apart at the end of the fourth quarter, however, and lost in overtime, 19-16. The Titans remain the only undefeated team in the NFL, now 8-8, and continue to build a lead in the AFC South, whereas the Packers are now tied with Minnesota in the NFC North with a 4-4 record.

When Green Bay had the Ball

Aaron Rodgers threw an interception and fumbled the ball on back-to-back drives in the third quarter. The fumble put Tennessee at Green Bay’s 17 yard line and resulted in a field goal, but the Titans didn’t capitalize on the interception, punting it back to Green Bay. Rodgers was able to move Green Bay across the 50 yard line on a number of drives and within scoring range, but the Packers, as they have in previous games this season, could not get touchdowns when they needed them.

Rodgers completed 22-of-41 for 314 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. It is his third 300-yard game of the season and his 5th consecutive game with at least one touchdown pass. He has five interceptions this season.

Ryan Grant did not struggle running the ball against Tennessee the entire game - he carried for at least 5 yards on 9 carries - but only 3 of his 20 carries resulted in a first down. He finished with 86 rushing yards.

Donald Driver had a lot of success in the second half as the Titans focused more attention on Greg Jennings. Driver finished with a great game: 7 receptions for 136 yards and a touchdown. Four of his receptions moved the ball at least 19 yards and one was a 44 yard catch.

When Tennessee had the Ball

Green Bay was very effective at stopping Tennessee for much of the game and keeping the Titans out of the endzone. But Tennessees moved the ball 118 yards on its two final drives, the last of which resulted in an overtime field goal that ended the game. Quarterback Kerry Collins passed for 68 yards on those two drives.

Collins finished 18-of-37 for 180 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions. Six of his completions were to running back Chris Johnson, who led the team in that category and yards, with 72 on the day.

Chris Johnson and LenDale White combined for 166 yards and 1 touchdown on 32 carries. Johnson handled the majority, with 24 for 89 yards and was very effective at the end of the game. White, meanwhile, contributed with 8 carries for 77 yards, thanks mostly to a 54 yard carry in the second quarter. That drive resulted in Tennessee’s only touchdown of the game, a 3 yard rush by Johnson.

Rob Bironas was 4-for-5 on field goals, missing a game-winning field goal in the fourth quarter (47 yards) and making the game-winner in overtime (41 yards).

Where the Teams Now Stand

Green Bay is 4-4 and tied with Minnesota for second in the NFC North. Chicago leads the division with a 5-3 record. Green Bay plays at Minnesota next week.

Tennessee is 8-0 and on top of the AFC South. They play at Chicago next week.

Finding Fantasy Football Value in Tennessee

Tuesday, October 28th, 2008

The Tennessee Titans finally proved themselves Monday night on professional football’s biggest stage. At least that’s the perspective you’ll get if you watch ESPN or NFL Network these days. Never mind that the Titans were 6-0 going into the game; it was this victory over the now sub-.500 Colts that mattered. The truth is the Titans have quietly been beating opponents all season long. It just took seven weeks for most pundits and fans to respect that.

When we talk about Tennessee, which continues to sit atop the NFL at 7-0, we don’t often enough make glowing remarks about its offense. Indeed, it doesn’t at first glance appear to put up the same numbers as others in the league - the passing game is ranked 28th, for example – but it is nonetheless one of the best in the NFL and has been for some time now.

Consider: in four of its past five games the Titans offense has scored at least 30 points. The one game in that span in which it didn’t was week five at Baltimore, a team that has allowed more than 10 points in just one home game this season. Incidentally, Tennessee – which scored a gentleman’s 13 – was the team to do it.

After watching Tom Brady and every other quarterback in the NFL enjoy uncharacteristically impressive seasons last year, it’s easy to dismiss offenses that don’t have a quarterback who throws at least 20-25 touchdowns. But the Titans are proving that a team can not only survive in the NFL with a throwback offense – one that runs effectively and doesn’t turn the ball over – but it can thrive.

True, the Titans may not throw the ball often enough to make the receivers valuable in most fantasy football leagues, but the value of this offense lies in the running game. And what a running game it is.

Chris Johnson and LenDale White are quickly developing into the best pair of runners in the league this season. As change-of-pace backs go, these two complement each other perfectly. Johnson, who has rushed for 626 yards and four touchdowns this season, is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and has plenty of speed. He’s fifth in the NFL in rushing yards right now and everyone in front of him has at least 14 – or eleven percent – more carries this season. And though it is often overlooked, it’s worth noting that Johnson hasn’t fumbled yet this season. None of the four backs ahead of him can claim that.

His partner in crime White doesn’t need to average much per carry. He’s the short yardage back, and he’s perfecting the art. With 10 rushing touchdowns this season, the Titans are using White similarly to the way USC did in his college days. He wasn’t as fast as Bush, but he could run between the tackles as well as anyone in the game. Thanks to this bruiser mentality, he rushed for dozens of touchdowns in college. Now he’s carrying that over to the NFL, putting himself on pace for well over 20 touchdowns this season. It’s worth noting that White has scored at least one touchdown in six of the Titans’ seven games this season, and in three he’s rushed for more than one.

Thanks to these two, the Titans have, not surprisingly, one of the league’s best statistical ground games. More importantly, however, the duo has made Tennessee’s offense something worth talking about.

Trend-Watching: Tennessee Titans RB LenDale White

Saturday, October 18th, 2008

LenDale White didn’t get as much attention in college as he deserved, despite scoring an incredible number of touchdowns. The reason? A speedy little back named Reggie Bush made a lot of big plays and look Gale Sayers-like on the field; tough to compete with that when you’re a 240 pound bruiser.

Still, as NFL runners go, LenDale White has been more successful than Reggie Bush as a professional. White’s run-between-the-tackles mentality is well-suited for his role as a goal line back (rookie Chris Johnson is the “lightning” in the thunder-lightning equation) and this season he’s continued to prove his worth.

White has five rushing touchdowns this season, making him a valuable back in most fantasy leagues, especially when considering he has played only five games this season and he’s been kept out of the endzone in just one game: week five against the Ravens. He also tends to put up a respectable total number of rushing yards each week - he averaged just under 50 in the first three weeks of the season - complementing his scores and ensuring that he was averaging about 10 fantasy points per week (assuming 1 point per 10 yards and 6 points per touchdown).

The Titans are the only undefeated team in the NFL right now for two reasons: they have a great defense and a solid running game that keeps the ball in their control. White might not be on pace for 1,000 yards this season, but he could quietly finish with 15 or more touchdowns. He’s a great option as a RB3 in most leagues and a decent RB2 in some others (though PPR leauges can find better value elsewhere).

Key Points

  • White is on pace for 16 rushing touchdowns - last season’s leader, LaDainian Tomlinson, had 15
  • White is a great value because he scores so much, but he is on pace for more than 500 yards rushing
  • PPR league players will find him to be an okay bench player, but definitely not a starter

Quarter Season Review: 10 Things You Ought to Know About the Tennessee Titans

Wednesday, October 1st, 2008

In a division that has looked surprisingly weak this season, no one has looked stronger than the Tennessee Titans. With a veteran arm at quarterback, the Titans are rolling right now. They’re one of just three teams in the NFL to remain unbeaten and one of just two to be 4-0. What’s so special about Jeff Fisher’s crew? Read on and find out.

1. They’ve allowed 46 points this season; no team that has played at least four games has allowed fewer or even close to that number, for that matter. Pittsburgh has allowed 58 this season, which is still pretty remarkable, but it’s not as good as Tennessee.

2. The Titans have also looked very good defending the pass and rush, ranking 8th in both categories. Worth noting, however, is that Tennessee has allowed just 5.7 yards per passing attempt; only the Ravens have been better this season and only the Colts, who have played one fewer game, have allowed fewer passing touchdowns than the Titans, who have given up one this season.

3. No defense has created as many turnovers via fumbles as the Titans, who have recovered 5 this season. For that matter, no team has forced as many interceptions this season, either. The Titans have 8, leading the NFL in turnovers forced with 13.

4. I guess it comes as no surprise then that the Titans also have the league’s best turnover differential, though they are tied for the lead. That means one thing: Tennessee has turned the ball over seven times, which is a bit surprising, considering their standing right now. Then again, force 3 turnovers a game and you’ll probably win ballgames. So far that’s been Tennessee’s mantra.

5. How much better is Kerry Collins than Vince Young when it comes to passing the football? It’s hard to say, since Young has passed the ball just 22 times, or about 1/4 the number as Collins. But here’s what I can tell you: Collins has a passer rating that is more than 35 points better than Young’s, he’s thrown twice as many touchdowns and half as many interceptions. In fact, his interception percentage (1.2) is 1/7 that of Young’s (9.1).

6. Heck, he’s even rushed for more yards than Young. With ten carries, Collins has 32 yards this season. Young ran just once in his only start of the season, picking up four yards. Collins also had a 17-yard pickup, which accounted for more than half his total yards.

7. The running game has been the backbone of the offense, though. LenDale White has been a brilliant goal line back, and he has five rushing touchdowns already. He hasn’t been the lead back, however, with rookie change-of-pace back Chris Johnson rushing for 337 yards on 67 carries and a pair of touchdowns of his own.

8. While I’m on the subject, don’t be shocked if Johnson winds up the rookie of the year this year; he’s on pace for almost 1,350 yards and 8 rushing scores this season, plus he’s the team’s number three receiver with 10 catches for 65 yards and a touchdown. That ups his pace to about 1,600 yards from scrimmage and 12 scores.

9. As far as receivers go, keep an eye on Bo Scaife if Vince Young ever returns to the starting lineup. In the one game Young played, Scaife caught 6 passes for 105 yards. Since then, he’s put together a total of 7 catches for 49 yards and a touchdown.

10. Justin Gage has been Collins’ favorite target. In the two games both he and Collins started, Gage had 10 receptions for 151 yards and a touchdown. He’s been the team’s leading receiver since week two, despite missing a game in between.

Dear Vince Young: Make a Decision

Friday, September 26th, 2008

“He doesn’t need our prayers; he needs to man up. He doesn’t need our love and support; he needs a good kick in the backside. It’s a man’s game and right now Vince Young doesn’t look mentally tough enough to handle the rigors of being a franchise quarterback in the NFL.”

“Either grow a spine or leave football altogether.”

Sad as it is to say, those comments above, taken from an episode of ESPN’s “Rome is Burning” (Clip), reflect the general view of Vince Young at this point in his career. Young, who considered a sabbatical from football after a slow start to the ‘08 season incited some boos from the crowd, is getting a bad reputation. There are a lot out there who think he’s mentally “soft,” that he flat out can’t handle the pressures of being a quarterback in the NFL.

What might be the worst part of this recent breakdown is what Young said when he was asked about Aaron Rodgers. Remember, this was before Rodgers had proven anything (from August 27th).

“As a quarterback, you can’t worry about everything else that’s going on around you,” Young said of Rodgers. “All you need to do is go out and play for your teammates and show it’s a whole different guy out there, and I want to go out and win ball games with you. I can praise him a whole lot. I’ll say he’s a man. He’s brave, definitely.”

A couple weeks later and Vince Young suffered an apparent mental breakdown of sorts. He’s since seen a psychologist and has been receiving therapy. Most recently he commented that, “I was never depressed. I just hurt a little bit …… When it happens again, I’ll know how to handle it.” (Sept. 13th) Unfortunately, I don’t think anyone is ready to jump behind Young, no one is ready to trust him.

And why should they?

Young was incredible in college, there’s no denying that. He was one of the greatest college quarterbacks in the history of the game, and he was a god in Texas. He single-handedly beat USC in the national title game and was on top of the world.

Then came the NFL.

Before the draft he had detractors, those who said that his style of play wasn’t a good fit in the pros. And, to be fair, it wasn’t (and isn’t). Young might be an athlete, but so is everyone else in the NFL. Until he learns to throw a clean spiral and make smart decisions he will never amount to anything. That’s his job, his responsibility. He signed a contract to play in the NFL, to be the face of the Titans franchise, and, at least right now, he’s not living up to his end of the bargain.

Consider his numbers between 2006-2007. In 2006 he took the league by storm, rushing for 552 yards and seven touchdowns and passing for 12 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Not great passing numbers, but respectable for a rookie. Besides, no one really cared since he ran for seven scores and looked incredible on the field. Then 2007 rolled around and he started making bad decisions. Defenses forced him to throw the ball, and when he didn’t, he paid. He still tried to run (he carried 10 more times than the season before), but his yard per carry average dipped 2.5 yards. As a passer, he was atrocious, throwing just 9 touchdowns and a whopping 17 interceptions.

In short, he regressed. Blame it on the Madden cover, blame it on his receivers, say what you want. The truth is, Vince Young was not a good quarterback last season. And this season he looked just as bad. In the one game he played he completed just over half his passes for one touchdown and two interceptions. His career quarterback rating: a 68.3.

Honestly, it doesn’t matter to me how you rate a quarterback. In the traditional sense, Young is a horrendous passer. He doesn’t make smart decisions with the football and oftentimes it looks as if he would rather run than pass. In the words of Jim Rome, he’s trying to “out-athlete a league of athletes.” Not going to happen, at least not until he can prove himself as a passer.

Can you honestly think of one great quarterback who was an effective runner but a poor passer? No, the truth is, you have to blend the two because when it comes right down to it, there’s no way to play quarterback in the National Football League unless you’re accurate and able to make smart decisions with the football. And even if he could pull it off, which it’s becoming increasingly obvious he can’t, his career is going to be shorter than most. After all, a quarterback, no matter how big and athletic (look at Culpepper, McNabb, and, if you want to go back a bit, Randall Cunningham, the original), cannot succeed in this league for an extended period of time unless he learns to throw the football.

“It is a major change, what we are asking him to do,” offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger said. “He has always been the best athlete on the field. He has always had the special ability to run like few can run when things are not there. When hurt, he can’t run and move at will. There is a reluctance to go. It’s a gamble. Then that ability that helps him make plays running and passing (that) others can’t isn’t there. I felt every week before he got hurt, he was growing. If everybody is patient enough, he will be fine. But I must say, he is a player where there doesn’t seem to be a lot of patience with him on the outside. For some reason, it’s just that way. And that is hard to figure.”

It’s not hard to figure, Mike. Maybe you’re right and maybe it will take time. Everyone knows that. It always takes time for quarterbacks in the NFL to adjust to the speed, to adjust the defenses. The best are able to do it before their time (usually 3-4 years) is up. That’s just the NFL. That’s how it works. No one is expecting Young to be the next Manning or Brady. All the fans want is someone who throws more touchdowns than interceptions, someone who can actually threaten defenses and keep them honest with his arm. Kerry Collins can do that. Can Vince Young?

For that matter, is Vince Young mentally strong enough to deal with these pressures? The pressure to perform, the pressure to learn, the pressure to win. Fans boo. That’s football. That’s sports in general. The Titans gave Young $26 million up front to be their quarterback, to deal with the stresses of being in the NFL. And right now, he isn’t earning it.

“What would you think, if you were tired of being ridiculed and persecuted and talked about and not being treated very well, what would you do?” asked Felicia Young, Vince’s mother. ”What kind of decision would you make? He’s hurting inside and out.”

I don’t care what kind of decision Young makes; just make one now and stick with it. Players retire every year; Vince Young is just in a brighter spotlight. That’s his problem to deal with. So deal with it.

A Face in a New Place - Alge Crumpler

Thursday, June 26th, 2008

He’s already one of Vince Young’s most talented targets, and he’s an immense upgrade at the tight end position. The problem, of course, is that Young isn’t a great passer. In fact, he’s not even a good passer. That could partly be attributed to the general consensus that Tennessee’s receivers have been among the worst in the NFL, but watching Young throw the ball isn’t the same as watching most passers do it. He doesn’t have enough accuracy, and he doesn’t make smart decisions.

And because of this, you must downgrade Crumpler. He’ll be a top three target in the Titans offense this season. But remember, this was a team that threw 9 touchdowns last year, spreading them out to four different receivers. Thaat means you can only honestly project for him to have a fair season by fantasy standards; expect at least 50 receptions, 600 yards, and 4 touchdowns and draft him a fantasy backup in most leagues.

Profiling Vince Young

Thursday, June 19th, 2008

Last season, when Young threw just 9 touchdowns to 17 interceptions, fantasy football owners were unhappy. Those are terrible numbers. Sure, the Titans won 10 games in the most difficult division in the NFL, but still. Throw more TDs!

In his two years as a starter, Young has averaged 2373 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. He took a step back last season (again, from a fantasy football perspective), and it’s a question mark how he’ll do in 2008.

Young’s one saving grace is his mobility, but even that dropped off considerably. He rushed for 395 yards in 2007 (vs. 552 in 2006) and just 3 touchdowns (vs. 7). But his erratic throwing has been a problem (this time, for both fantasy owners and the Titans).

All that considered, the Titans do have a better offense around him this year. Former Falcons star Alge Crumpler has been added, giving Young a much-needed target at tight end, while former Jets wide receiver Justin McCareins will probably start opposite Justin Gage. This has been Young’s primary defense the past two seasons: he hasn’t had talent around him. And though this offense isn’t great, its weapons are better by leaps and bounds than past last year’s.

Expect Young to have another VY-ish season, and project for at least 2400 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 400 rushing yards, and 4 rushing touchdowns. Draft him as your backup.

Williams Tries to Keep Career Alive With Titans

Monday, May 26th, 2008

The 6′5 receiver was noted for his great hands at USC and had the prototypical makeup of a pro receiver. Unfortunately, after being drafted 10th overall in the 2005 draft by the Lions his career spriraled downward before it even had a chance to take off. His inconsistencies ended his time with Detroit just two years after being drafted, and in 2007 he was signed by the Raiders, then released and signed by the Titans.

In his three seasons he has a total of 44 receptions, 539 yards, and 2 touchdowns, and most of those numbers came his first NFL season. Williams has more career fumbles (3) than touchdowns (2) and he has just seven career starts.

But at least he has some potential in Tennessee.

”His weight’s coming down. We’re working on the speed. He’s running well and catching well, so it’s going to be very competitive there,” an impressed Jeff Fisher said. “I’m pleased with where he is.”

He’ll have to beat out several receivers to even have a shot at playing time, but desperation tends to motivate players. Williams might be getting his last shot with an NFL team. He better make this one count.