• Since Week One of the 2008 season, a span of 19 games including the playoffs, the Colts have allowed only six passing touchdowns while intercepting 17 passes.  Indianapolis has also allowed fewer passing yards this season than any other team.  If there ever was a week to bench Kurt Warner, this would be it.

• If you have Chester Taylor in a PPR league, this is the week to start him.  San Francisco has allowed 23 receptions, 179 receiving yards, and 1 receiving TD to running backs alone thru the first two weeks.  The 49ers have allowed 51 receptions total so the 23 by running backs accounts for nearly half of all receptions allowed.  Also, Percy Harvin missed practice on Thursday and Friday due to migraine headaches and may not play Sunday and that would likely increase Harvin’s touches even more.

• Zach Miller of the Raiders is normally a must-start at tight end but this may be the week to sit him.  The Broncos have allowed only three receptions for 32 yards and no touchdowns to tight ends this year.

• The Tennessee Titans have allowed a microscopic 1.8 yards per carry to speed backs Willie Parker and Steve Slaton.  Accordingly, those two are tied for second in stuffed rushing attempts with seven each while Tennessee’s own Chris Johnson has been stopped the most times behind the line of scrimmage – eight.

• If Anthony Bryant does play for Tampa Bay, he should not be starting on your team.  It’s not because of his knee problem, but rather because of the team he is facing.  The Giants are only giving up 80 yards per game to wide receivers and have not allowed a touchdown to a receiver this year.

• For IDP leagues, avoid playing Julius Peppers this week as Dallas is the only team that has yet to allow a sack to an opposing defensive lineman.  Tony Romo can thank Flozell Adams and his “kick-saves” for that.

• After hearing that the Jets will be down one starting cornerback and their nickel back in Sunday’s game vs. Tennessee, you may be tempted to start Kerry Collins.  But the great equalizer comes in the form of old Mother Nature.  There is a 90% chance of rain during game time in New York on Sunday and historically, Collins has struggled in both the rain and snow.  In 11 career games in some form of precipitation, Collins has thrown fewer touchdowns, 12, than interceptions, 15.

• On the other side of the ball, the Titans pass defense has struggled immensely this season.  The loss of former defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has seemed to really affect the communication among the defensive backs.  Against opposing wide receivers, Tennessee has allowed the most receiving yards, the second most receiving touchdowns, and the third most receptions.  These are common problems for teams that lose long time coordinators (like Tampa Bay and Baltimore) but they are usually ironed out later in the season.  For the time being, take advantage of this and if you have Jerricho Cotchery, he is a solid WR2 for this week.

I’m not certain about this statistic, but I think it’s safe to say that less than 10 percent of the fantasy football playing population follows self-directed fantasy football research. In fact, I would venture to guess the number is closer to 1 percent; probably less. That means if you get involved in your own fantasy football research - and do it right, which is partly the focus of this article - you’ll probably wind up with a satisfying draft that puts you on a good course for the postseason.

Let’s be honest, this is how most fans’ offseason goes. Most fantasy players spend mornings reading the sports section in the newspaper, catching Matthew Berry’s nuggets of information on ESPN, and, in general, trying to keep up with the player/coaching movements. Few will keep close enough tabs, however, and they’ll wind up spending seven bucks on a fantasy football guide in June or July and read some of the articles before tearing out the cheat sheets on game day. Then they’ll waltz into their draft room (or check in online), crib sheets in hand, and proceed to draft with a combination of outdated information and specific biases based on the season before or preconceived notions concerning a specific player.

And then they’ll conclude their draft with a decent-at-best team, and stumble their way through the season in hopes for a postseason berth. When it’s over they’ll wonder, what went wrong? Or they’ll get lucky, win the championship, and assume they’re geniuses.

Either way, bad result.

Instead, let’s approach the offseason a little bit differently. Yes, it takes a little time commitment, and no, it’s not a guarantee you’ll win your fantasy league. It takes more than a great draft to win a league, but a great draft can make things a heckuva lot easier.

Here’s your schedule:

March-April

Don’t worry about the draft until after it’s over. You can keep tabs, but don’t make it your focus. Know enough to talk intelligently about the subject or put together a mock for a friendly contest, but keep this in mind: the draft means nothing until it’s over.

Instead, spend these months keeping up with team rosters, and review 2008 while it’s still very fresh in your mind. Look at the rosters of every team and put together a rough top 20 sheet for each position (and a top 40 for wide receivers). Base it mostly on your gut feelings and how 2008 transpired. It won’t be accurate (yet), but it’s going to allow you to focus your attention those players.

The list itself will take you, give or take, 2 hours to put together. Just write down the players’ first and last names and their teams. That’s it. One more detail: while your putting the list together, only put 2-4 players on each page, evenly spaced. You’re going to be taking notes on each of these players and you’ll be filling up the white space.

The rest of your time during these two months will be spent assembling those notes. Start with the basics: take a look at player pages on NFL.com and write down some things you find interesting. (Examples: the player hasn’t played 16 games the past three seasons; he’s thrown 20+ touchdowns the past two seasons; he’s carried the ball 300+ times each of the past three seasons; 2008 was the first time he caught more than 40 receptions; etc.) Then go to Sports Data Hub’s tool set and play around with things, again writing down some notes. (Examples: the player only scored touchdowns in 5 weeks of the season; he handled more carries during the second half than the first half; etc.) Anything you find interesting or think may be fantasy football worthy, write it down. No detail is really too small. Anything you want to remember about the player, put it on the paper.

How long will this process take? Think 10-20 minutes per player. Just focus on doing 2 or 3 players each day and you’ll easily knock out all 100 players (20 QBs, 20 RBs, 40 WRs, 20 TEs) during the course of the two months without putting in any time on the weekend.

Final note: don’t adjust your rankings yet. You’ll be doing that in the near future.

May

You’ll know more about every roster in May. The draft will be complete and most of the offseason moves will be wrapped up. Spend May considering which rookies will start at running back, wide receiver, and quarterback, in that order. The biggest impact rookies will be at running back and you’ll be able to count how many on one hand. Most other positions won’t matter to your draft, save maybe one or two wide receivers.

Now spend time in May looking at individual teams. Just write down the expected starters’ names on a sheet, and jot down any notes you had from the individual player player pages (the ones you made before). Finally, add any additional notes you think are relevant. You’re going to be looking at the offensive line at this point and considering how much it’s changed. Also consider coaching changes: try making use of the SDH tools to consider how the coaches balanced running/passing the ball in the past. Ask critical thinking questions: why did the coach run/pass this often in the past? Will that rookie offensive tackle make a big impact? Will the running game see a boost with the rookie? Will the passing game function better with that controversial free agent wide receiver? Why or why not?

June

Okay, now the offseason is winding down. Preseason is just a little more than a month away, so it’s time to put together your second draft of rankings, expanding it and refining the rankings. Look through your notes, consider changes in the offseason, and put together a top 30 for quarterbacks and running backs; a new top 20 for tight ends; and a top 60 for wide receiver. This time put 6-8 players on each page and include some crucial notes you don’t want to forget.

Beyond that, it’s also a good idea to start ranking team defenses. After spending May looking at offenses, spend June examining at team defenses. Which defense was the best in 2008? Which bolstered its roster in free agency? Which drafted the play makers? Which has the best schedule? Which will force a lot of turnovers? Keep asking these types of questions until you have a pretty good list of 15-20 defenses.

July

Ready? Preseason is next month and your fantasy draft is right around the corner. At this point you should have a rough draft with 140 players and 15-20 defenses on it. This is the month you will finalize all projections for the players. It only takes 5-10 minutes per player, so you can easily knock out 5-10 players per day without ruining your schedule. Lastly, you’re going to refine the list one last time - no expansion necessary - and separate the players by tiers. You can do this in one of two ways.

One, just separate players of similar value, in terms of your projections. This is what a lot of players/magazines will do, and it’s a decent approach. All things considered, it’s relatively better than simply not separating by tiers.

But the better method - and this one will make good use of all your notes and research - factors in risk/reward. Basically, your top tier is high scorers from last season who are almost guaranteed to repeat. Tier two consists of last season’s high scorers who will probably repeat, but there is reason for doubt. Even so, these guys will turn in a solid season, even if things go a bit awry. The third tier includes last season’s solid players with good upside.  And the fourth tier is players of high risk/reward.

Also, it’s suggested you purchase a fantasy football guide or print an alternative rankings sheet to get a feel for how others view the same players. It’s not necessary to madly change your rankings because another person has a different opinion than you, but it’s a good idea to consider why the other person’s feelings conflict with your own. Plus, you’ll see where your buddies will probably draft certain players, so you don’t draft someone on your list too soon (or too late). It’s also nice to have a bigger list of player names prior to your draft, since more than 160 picks are drafted in a 12 team league.

August

August is a breeze. Spend your weekends catching a game or two while keeping up with all the player injuries and position battles, tweaking your rankings as things progress. When your draft does arrive, show up with the self-assurance that accompanies an offseason of research and prepare to draft confidently.

Conclusion

Self-directed fantasy football research isn’t as time-consuming as most might assume. In fact, as this basic schedule shows, it can be done by investing an hour or less each day during the week.

This offseason schedule kicks off on Sunday. Are you ready to prepare for fantasy football?

Good luck!

Here’s a new way to approach fantasy football projections: rather than consider only changes made on offense or to the coaching staff, look at the players’ teammates on defense - you’ll be a better fantasy player because of it.

But why look at the defense? After all, defense doesn’t really influence offense, does it? Well, that’s not really true. Knowing whether a team has a good or poor defense makes projecting its run-pass ratio a heckuva lot easier. And as any seasoned fantasy player will tell you, opportunity creates breakout statistical seasons.

What do I mean by this? To begin, let’s pretend you know a team will have a top ten defense. They made a lot of big offseason acquisitions and hired a proven defensive coordinator. During the season, they tend to hold opponents to under 20 points per game. Teams like this tend to run more often than they pass because they are playing to control the football and grind clock. They don’t need to pass as often as a team with a bad defense because they don’t need to score as many points.

This is how 95% of NFL coaches approach their offenses: if they can run the ball - a low-risk style of play - they will run the ball. The chances of a turnover are minimized and it’s more likely to gain yardage - even if it’s a minimal amount - than a pass play, with has, on average, a 60-65% chance of gaining yards. This is why most teams run on first down: if they attempt a pass and it’s incomplete, they’re faced with 2nd and 10; but if they run the ball and pick up 4 yards to make it 2nd and 6, their second down options open up.

Consider the Tennessee Titans during the regular season. Could they have passed the ball more frequently? Sure. Why didn’t they? Because the running game was successful and they didn’t need to score a lot of points. They had a mediocre scoring offense (ranked 14th), but a great defense (ranked 2nd).

At the opposite end of the spectrum, consider the New Orleans Saints. They had a bad defense this season which gave up a lot of points (nearly 25 per game), so to keep up and outscore opponents, the Saints needed a lot of points in a hurry. To score as often as they did (more than any other team in the NFL, actually), they passed the ball more than 60 percent of the time.

If you drafted either Chris Johnson or Drew Brees this season, you were probably happy. Those players were put in a position to score a lot of fantasy points because the situation usually demanded their involvement. The Titans could have passed the ball more often, but they might have ended up with more interceptions. The Saints could have tried sticking with a running game, but it would have eaten too much clock and the odds of moving straight down the field would have been diminished.

Next season, when you’re projecting player performance, consider how many opportunities they’ll be given. Consider their defenses.

One of the most underrated factors in fantasy football near the end of the season is the weather. Sure, we take it into consideration, but not to the extent we probably should. Rather than take the time to look at the forecast for the upcoming slate of games, I would guess most fantasy footballers instead make generalizations.

For example, I would venture to guess at some point you’ve thought, hmmm … Chicago in December is probably a tough place to throw the football and typically it’s true. The Windy City is hardly a haven for quarterbacks, so most opponents in town will focus their efforts on establishing a strong running game. But what happens when some alignment of the universe creates a favorable situation for quarterbacks in Chicago. Perhaps it’s sunny and calm with a high of 50, and you didn’t know that. Could pose a problem, right?

This is why I love Weather.com. Sure, it’s great for catching the daily forecast for my hometown, so I know to bundle up on some odd day in August (darn the Midwest’s erratic weather patterns!). But why not take advantage of the weather forecasts for individual games? Weather.com offers a sweet feature – and perhaps other sites out there do the same – where you can catch the game-time forecast for every game of the season, all in one place.

Why is it useful? Because it helps to know when a blizzard is going to hit Green Bay, Wisconsin or when it’s going to pour rain in Tampa, Florida. Those games are going to create difficult passing situations and potentially low-scoring situations.

Of course, it’s also useful to know which teams play in domes because for obvious reasons they will not be affected.

Still, what weather patterns should be looked at the closest?

• High winds, rain, Snow, or storms of any sort make passing the football difficult and scoring less frequent. It also makes kicking field goals more difficult and, for those of you in leagues which place greater value on longer field goals, coaches are more hesitant to attempt anything 50 or more yards.
• Cold weather - think below freezing - affects older quarterbacks (looking at you, Brett Favre).
• Warm, sunny conditions create a favorable environment for running or passing and scoring is likely to be relatively more frequent.

Also, don’t forget it’s not easy to run in the snow; it’s just easier than passing the ball. In other words, you shouldn’t just start a running back solely because his team is playing in the snow. Starting a team defense, however, is another story altogether. Remember, low scoring and wet conditions, which in turn creates a greater likelihood of turnovers, equals high fantasy scoring for a defense.

The weather isn’t important enough that you should consider starting a sleeper over a fantasy stud, but it’s very useful when picking between similar players on your roster. It’s overlooked by a lot of fantasy football owners; be sure you’re not one of them.

Okay, so you’ve been playing fantasy football for a few years and you’re really getting into it. You consistently make the fantasy postseason and think you have a pretty good handle on the game, but you haven’t won your league championship and you’d like to step it up. Original research is a pretty good place to start.

Of course, getting started in making your own projections and analysis can be a bit daunting. It also can seem pointless, since dozens of fantasy football magazines and blogs have already crunched the numbers and spent the year looking at players and teams with a magnifying glass. And they get paid to do this. You, on the other hand, will be spending your limited free hours looking at the same numbers, which makes you wonder, is it even worth it?

In a word, yes. There is no substitute for original research and analysis. When you read or listen to what an “expert” says, you’re only getting one side of a story, the side they believe is correct. Now, they might be, but experts certainly aren’t perfect and they will get things wrong not infrequently. And remember, their analysis is often confined to a paragraph, most of which is spent reciting numbers from the last three seasons. They spent more time looking at things than they have room to print, so they write arguments to support their opinions and may leave out part of the story.

So how do you get started in fantasy football analysis? In all actuality, it’s not too complicated. It basically boils down to spending a little time each day looking at numbers and drawing some conclusions. Fantasy football is not rocket science - it’s just a matter of approaching things correctly. Here’s how to accomplish that:

When you start out, just play around. You don’t even need a real purpose yet. All you really need to do at this point is get acclimated with some different web sites and pick the ones you find most convenient. (I use NFL.com, Pro Football Reference, and Sports Data Hub, myself.) If you love looking at numbers, then head over to Pro Football Reference. If you’re more of a visual thinking, take a quick spin on Sports Data Hub’s free tool and look at the graphs. And when I say play around, that’s all I mean. Sort columns, look at random players, and see what you missed from the season before. Chances are you didn’t realize certain players performed as well as they did. Some surprises will jump off the page. Scribble those names down.

When you have a handful of players you found surprising, jot down some reasons why they did so well. It’s one thing to find players who surprised, but to understand whether they can consistently do well, you’ll need to find an explanation. A few reasons a player might suddenly see a spike up or down in his numbers: a new team, injuries, a “soft” schedule, an improved offensive line (check out the number of times a quarterback was sacked, for example), free agency, the draft, new coach, or a new assistant coach.

After you find the reason a player did well, ask yourself, “Will he do just as well or just as bad this season?” Ask yourself the following questions: Is the reason he did well still around, or did that new offensive lineman retire? Is the injured quarterback back in the lineup this season, so the wide receiver can expect his numbers to spike? Did something else change this season? Was that defensive-minded head coach fired and replaced by an offensive minded head coach, or vice versa? What’s the new coach’s mindset - does he believe in hard-hitting, games are won in the trenches football? Or does he spread defenses with a finesse passing game? Is the new quarterback a pocket passer, or is he a scrambler? Did the offense sign a new running back to split carries with last season’s starter? These are just some examples and there are plenty of other analytical questions you can probably come up with on your own.

Okay, so now you have a handful of players who did well last season and an explanation. Whether the reasoning is correct or not is a bit arbitrary at this point. Even if you don’t get it right, you will eventually. The point of this exercise is simply to test your football knowledge and get you think outside the box.

How much time should you spend with this exercise? Try doing one or two players each day for a couple weeks. Or you could try spending one day looking at a specific team and noting players on that team who exceeded expectations. Choose the most effective way that suits you best. It shouldn’t take more than 20-30 minutes per day, and you’ll feel your knowledge expanding as you get a great personal feel for individual players and teams, which will be great when you’re drafting in the middle or late rounds on draft day.

After you’ve done all this, buy a fantasy magazine and check how your thoughts and those of the experts compare. Why does he think the player will again put up good numbers? Did he catch something you missed? If he supports one argument and you support another, don’t automatically change your opinion to conform. Realize he might not be right. It’s hard to describe the satisfaction you’ll get from being right when someone else is wrong. And if a few weeks into the season you realize you were wrong, oh well. Remember, this is a learning experience, so figure out the reason the player didn’t live up to your expectations or vastly exceeded them.

Fantasy football research is a lot of fun, and it’s very rewarding. It takes time, but it’s a lot easier than you really think. And who knows? Do it enough and maybe you’ll be the next Talented Mr. Roto!

Good luck!

NFL fantasy football is the most deceptively simple fantasy game you’ll find. Because rosters need to be adjusted only on a weekly basis (versus daily for NBA or MLB, for example) and statistics are easy for just about anyone to understand and get a handle on, most people invest little time in preparing for the season or maintaining their rosters during the 16 or so weeks it’s played. Sure, we all watch SportsCenter or NFL Total Access and click the player notifications on Yahoo.com’s roster page, but is that really enough?

To separate yourself from the competition, check out the following eight tips.

1. Download Podcasts - Podcasts, or downloadable radio shows, are a convenient way to catch some fantasy analysis at your leisure. Head over to iTunes or somewhere else on the web and pick one or two you find interesting and subscribe to them. Then sync ‘em up to your iPod or mp3 player and listen to shows while you drive to work or do the dishes.

2. Read - I love watching ESPN as much as the next guy, but I don’t always retain a lot of the information I see. And the amount of time devoted to fantasy football during a typical hour of the network’s top show, SportsCenter? Probably around five minutes, if that. Instead, read blogs and newspapers, especially the printed variety. Reading flexes more brain muscle than groggily watching SportsCenter in the morning, so you’ll retain more information.

3. Take Notes - While you’re reading, have a pen and notepad nearby to jot down some notes. You don’t necessarily need many details. Just write down a player’s name and a quick factoid. Later, when when you’re looking at your fantasy roster or looking for potential trades/free agents, pull out the notes.

4. Play Devil’s Advocate - While you read or watch a fantasy football segment on TV, realize that no one is ever right one hundred percent of the time. Just as Mel Kiper never nails all 32 first round draft picks, you shouldn’t expect anyone, not even “experts”, to have all the answers. Whenever you see someone make a statement, try playing devil’s advocate and making the opposite argument. Research it and see what you find. Even if you wind up accepting what the expert says, you’ll learn a lot more by examining both sides of the argument. Remember, LT was the consensus number one fantasy player to have. How’d that work out?

5. Conduct Research - You’ll learn a lot about the NFL by simply investigating it with a little research. I’m not talking about investing enough time to write your own magazine, but try spending 15 minutes each day just perusing NFL.com’s statistics or playing around with some of the tools on this web site. Note any obscurities or trends or go to the site with some purpose in mind. Maybe you’ll find something that will help you, or maybe you’ll just find something you can throw into a friendly conversation. Either way, it can’t hurt.

6. Take Note of Trends … and Then Ask, Why? - Picking up on trends is nice, but it’s the second part of this tip that really counts. It’s one thing to find out a player’s performance picked up or collapsed. It’s quite another to understand what affected that change. Did the head coach bench the rookie quarterback and put in a veteran, affecting the receiving corps? Was the left tackle injured three weeks ago, leading to a drop in performance in the running game? Find out why and you can project how long the trend will last and thus better assess individual player value.

7. Actually Listen to the Commentators when Watching Games - Thanks to Frank Caliendo, most people only listen to commentators to catch them when they misspeak or say something blatantly obvious. Don’t forget most of these are guys are pretty darn intelligent and probably know more about football than you. If nothing else, they have the opportunity to talk to players and coaches and it’s their job to know why teams are playing as they are: you can pick up a lot of information by just listening intently.

8. Respect Opinions but Don’t Take Them for Gospel - This goes back to number four. Never let an analyst’s opinion change your own until you’ve investigated his argument and done a little digging of your own, especially when it comes to “sleeper” picks or “start or sit” picks.

You love the NFL; why else would you be on this site, researching and reaping the benefits of fantasy football? But let’s be honest: there are only so many hours in the day. If you’re a student, that means homework, reading, midterms, and eventually (no!) finals. If you’re in a 9-5, that means hours spent answering emails, doing paperwork, and pleasing the boss with hard (or at least effective) work. And if you’re married and have kids, that means even more time spent away from what really matters: fantasy football.

The point is, however, you probably don’t have as much time to spend researching fantasy football and tweaking your roster as, say, a writer or journalist who has been fortunate enough to land a gig analyzing his favorite pastime.That’s why this post is so important: it highlights the websites that will give you the biggest bang for your time buck. Time management is important no matter what you’re doing; figuring out fantasy football is no different.

Here are the top ten sites - offering everything from tools that allow you to do your own analysis to providing their analyses to breaking down the day’s news - you ought to know. Bookmark them, subscribe to them, keep an eye on them; you’ll be a better fantasy football player for doing so.

1. This site, of course- Sports Data Hub makes it easier than ever to look at how players are performing on a weekly basis and that makes pitting players head-to-head for trades easier because, chances are, you won’t get enough information from any other site. The best part: the basic tool (which is for the players themselves) is free. If you want to dig deeper, don’t hesitate to pay for the modestly priced premium features of the site for even more data. My favorite tool: trendlines.

2. Pro Football Reference - There isn’t a better statistical database on the planet during the offseason. The site has super-fast load times and an easy-to-access layout, which means you’ll get more done in less time. Plus, when you’re bored it’s always fun to check out some of the site’s frivolities, such as which player was born today and the non-quarterback passers, which lists all the “other guys” since 1960 to have thrown a pass in a game.

3. Football Outsiders - Simply put, these guys know football. They’ve developed their own statistics for breaking down which offenses are most effective when they have the football and which defenses are best at stopping those offenses. Their articles are spot-on and their analysis is, well, brilliant. For example, they developed something called the third down prinicple which basically points out that “teams whose third down performance on offense or defense exceeds their performance on first and second down tend to see that third down performance decline in subsequent years.” Check out the site and be prepared to read a lot of numbers (though in an easily digestible format).

4. Fantasy Players Network - You probably don’t have time to check 25 different blogs every day, but that’s okay, because this site has brought together 25 of the best fantasy football blogs on the net and put them on one site. It updates frequently and links to those other sites so you can check the headlines you want (including both news and analysis) without subscribing to dozens of blogs and sites.

5. Pro Sports Daily - I recommend checking this site in the morning when it’s updated with headlines form loads of newspapers from around the country. They also have team-specific pages and the site has developed into a more communal format, with more emphasis on comments. The coolest part: seeing 10-20 headlines, plus snippets (a paragraph or so) that give you a pretty good idea of the article’s content.

6. AccuScore - Now here’s a great concept: weekly forecasts for individual players and teams (such as postseason odds) at the click of the mouse. The articles also do a great job of telling you what the numbers mean,without requiring you to go back to school for a math degree. And if you’re the gambling type, the site offers analytical tools for over/under, a parlay calculator, and the daily line report.

7. Rotoworld - It’s easy during the offseason to wind up unsure of who is starting where and how position battles are coming along. And that’s just one great reason to bookmark this site. The depth chart page is something that once you see it, you wonder how you got along without it. It updates more frequently than any other site I know about and makes it very easy to check up on the latest news and injury reports for specific players.

8. Fantasy Football Librarian - Fantastic links await you on this updated-on-a-pretty-much-every-day-basis blog. It makes sense, doesn’t it? A librarian doing research … only this librarian has an affinity for fantasy football. What could be better?

9. The Official Website of the National Football League - NFL.com is a great place to follow games when you can’t catch them on television and the video recaps give you a pretty good idea of what happened during the game in under five minutes. Also, be sure to check out anything written by Adam Schefter or any video that he’s involved in: he’s the Chris Mortenson of NFL Network and his rumors and analysis are usually dead-on.

10. Pro Football Talk - This site continues to be known for its rumor mill, but the site also features A LOT of news. It’s updated several times each hour with analytical posts that put most other news-rumor-analysis sites to shame. It can be overwhelming at times to see so many posts, but it’s worth reading the homepage’s headlines every so often during the day to catch some juicy NFL gossip.

The general rule of drafting in fantasy football is this: quarterbacks are not taken in the top three. And the idea of drafting a quarterback number one? Foolhardy. After all, the common wisdom goes, running backs are the highest scorers.

Here’s the thing: that’s not always true. Last season, in most standard leagues in which all touchdowns are awarded 6 points, four of the top five fantasy scorers were not running backs. Three were quarterbacks (Tom Brady, Tony Romo, and Peyton Manning) and another was a wide receiver (Randy Moss). Now, I think most will agree that last season was an especially prolific one for all quarterbacks (and a bit of a down year for running backs), but let’s look ahead to this season with a couple generic predictions.

Here’s the scenario: first you have a running back. He nets 2,200 yard yards from scrimmage and scores 20 touchdowns to lead the NFL in both categories; has a heckuva season. Next you have a quarterback, who throws for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. He even rushes for 100 yards. Again, leads the NFL in both passing categories; nice numbers. (I think you’ll agree that those are pretty modest projections for league leaders; the quarterback might throw for 4,500 yards or 35 touchdowns and the running back might score a little more, but those are still pretty generic for any given season.)

You’re in a basic league: 10-10-25 for yardage scoring, 6 points per touchdown, no interception/fumble penalties; no PPR. Who had the better season?

The running back scored 220 points from his yardage and another 120 points, thanks to the 20 touchdowns he scored. Grand total: 340 points. The quarterback, meanwhile, scored 160 points for passing the ball like he did and 180 from his 30 touchdown passes. Those 100 rushing yards, though seemingly pretty insignificant, still netted him another 10 points. Grand total: 350 points.

Wait. The quarterback scored more than the running back? Interestingly enough, yes he did. Against all laws of fantasy football, a generic quarterback scored more than a generic running back.

Now the question is, should you have drafted the quarterback? What I love about fantasy football is that sometimes it’s just a little more complex than it seems.

Let’s say you drafted that quarterback first overall in a 12 team league. That means you waited until another 22 picks cleared the board before you got even a chance at your RB1 and RB2. As a generous prediction, I’ll guess that eight wide receivers and another two quarterback were taken in rounds one and two, meaning 12 running backs were drafted. Assuming your draft goes by the book, you should wind up with what most consider a very low end RB1 or a high end RB2; two, if you choose to wait until another 22 picks are off the board before you take your first wide receiver.

Let’s say another ten wide receivers were drafted in rounds 3 and 4 and five more quarterbacks, so seven more running backs are gone. If you drafted two running backs earlier, you’re now going to be picking the 19th best wide receiver (a mid-range WR2) as your WR1. If you drafted a running back and wide receiver earlier, you can pick the 21st best running back as your RB2 and the 20th ranked wide receiver as your WR2.

For those a little confused, here’s your potential roster through round five with pre-draft rankings in parentheses, if you drafted RB-RB in rounds 2-3: QB (1), RB1 (13), RB2 (14), WR1 (19), WR2 (20). Here’s your roster if you drafted RB-WR in rounds 2-3: QB (1), RB1 (13), RB2 (21), WR1 (20), WR2 (21).

Let’s break it down: I said that eight quarterbacks have been drafted to this point. Now, all eight of those quarterbacks are projected to be QB1s. I also said that at least 20 wide receivers have been drafted (deep into projected WR2s) and 20 running backs were drafted (deep into projected RB2s). So what do you think: are you better off with a roster equipped with the eighth ranked quarterback and, say, the top ranked running back (someone you know you can start ever week) as your RB1, the 12th ranked running back as your RB2, the 9th ranked receiver as your WR1, and the 20th ranked receiver as your WR2?

I’m going to say yes. So to answer this post’s title question, my line of thinking is that it’s going to be very difficult to pull off a good draft if you pick a quarterback number one. Maybe you’ll get lucky, but I think one is better off going with a running back in the first round (especially first overall) because the time between picks is brutal (assuming you’re in a 12-team league).

Lesson learned: you must to draft your fantasy roster while thinking about more than the pick at hand; think several rounds deep. Draft strategy comes down to more than straight up projections and top 100-lists. Try joining some mock drafts and look at what happens to your roster if you pick a quarterback first overall, second overall, third overall. The results may surprise you.

Side note: sorry if I confused anyone (I confused myself at a couple points in putting this together).

The NFL offseason is more publicized now than it has ever been in years past, which has led to more analysis from experts, as well as amateur writers with an opinion. Thanks to the increased awareness of offseason moves, it’s easier now than ever to conduct your own analysis and form educated opinions.

This is a generic list of things (no player names, except perhaps examples) to look for during the offseason that will affect the upcoming fantasy football year. Consider this a guide to forming your own opinions, though I cannot stress enough that it is essential that you have a real feel for the sport that can only come from being a fan for many seasons. And always consider others’ opinions, even if they disagree with your own. Consider their arguments carefully and figure that into your own equation. Flipping a situation and playing “devil’s advocate” is never a bad idea because it forces you to consider the situation from all angles.

Free Agent Movement- This is a big one because it can make an immediate impact on a football team, and one that can be accurately predicted. Unlike the draft, it’s possible to look at how certain players have impacted former NFL teams by looking back at their histories with those teams. These players have in-game experience and have proved that they have what it takes to succeed on the professional level.

From a fantasy football standpoint, it’s particularly important to look at acquisitions at these positions.

• Offensive Line - This is often overlooked because most casual fans have precious little knowledge of offensive linemen. The cool thing about the Internet, however, is that you can do a quick Google search for a player and someone out there has an opinion. Looking at the player’s career with a former team is also a great way to learn a few things: how many sacks did that team allow? How many yards per carry did running backs average? Was he a part of the problem or was the offensive line weak on the opposite side? Also, most magazines rate players with a grade or some other scale. Read the experts’ analysis and figure that into the equation, too.
• Wide Receiver - Not only does the acquisition of a wide receiver affect the passing game for the quarterback, it also affects other wide receivers. A veteran presence on the team may mean that defenses place less attention on a star wide receiver (consider Carolina this season, after the team signed Muhsin Muhammad). Of course it does also affect the quarterback by giving him more options, and that in turn may affect the running game (consider Minnesota signing Bernard Berrian).
• Running Back - This is where someone can show up and instantly become a starter (Michael Turner in Atlanta; Julius Jones in Seattle) or become a specific downs player, such as a goal line back or 3rd down back. Consider this carefully because a goal line back may be a touchdown vulture (Najeh Davenport stole a bunch of touchdowns from Willie Parker during his stay).
• Quarterback - Obviously there are times when someone will wind up and instantly become a starter for a franchise (Chad Pennington in Miami), but a veteran might also be brought to a team to spark a young quarterback and provide some competition. Though he may never play, the team’s starter will probably be better because of the competition.

The best place to look to see if someone is going to start: RotoWorld.com’s depth chart pages. It will show you who the favorite is at positions (including 3rd down back and goal line back) and is an invaluable resource, as it is frequently updated with important players news and notes.

Of course, it’s also important to look at free agent losses. If a starting left tackle leaves a team and is replaced by a lesser player, the team’s running back might struggle. Also, the quarterback might face more pressure and have troubles of his own. It also hurts for a team to lose one of its best wide receivers (Chicago losing Berrian), and if the passing game struggles, the running game will be of more importance than in the past. There are truly a lot of variables to consider, but it gets easier as you go along.

The NFL Draft - The NFL Draft will impact the fantasy football season to a lesser degree than free agency, but it’s still important to pay attention to what happens.

• Rookie Quarterbacks - Young quarterbacks are historically more comfortable throwing to the slot and tight end positions and less comfortable throwing outside to the starting wide receivers. Rookie quarterbacks who start will also impact the offense in other ways. For one, wide receivers will likely not produce like they would with a veteran and the team’s running game will be more utilized.
• Rookie Running Backs - This is typically a transition that is not met with a lot of difficulty if the running back is pro caliber. In fact, running backs are probably the only rookies who will produce immediately if they get enough touches.
• Rookie Wide Receivers - Wide receivers will only put up numbers if they get receptions and quarterbacks typically love to throw to players they are most comfortable with, meaning rookies usually don’t get a lot of passes thrown their way.
• Rookie Offensive Linemen - It’s tough to predict how much success a rookie offensive lineman will have, but one thing is usually universal: rookie offensive linemen get better as the season goes on and they adjust to the improved speed of opponents.

Coaching Changes - This is very important and seems like a lot of research until you consider that only about 5-10 coaching changes will occur during any given season. The most important thing here is to look at whether the new man in charge is an offensive-minded coach or a defensive-minded guy. Offensive-minded coaches will typically pass more than run - and usually like a West Coast style of offense that makes use of a very accurate passer (Jeff Garcia in Tampa Bay) - while defensive-minded coaches will run more often (Lovie Smith in Chicago). Of course, a lot also depends on the talent at important positions (especially quarterback) and this is just a general rule of thumb.

It also helps to look at the coach’s assistants. Defensive coaches will usually almost completely hand over the offensive duties to their offensive coordinators, so it helps if you do a little research. The best way: look at past teams for all the coaches and consider run-pass ratios (pass attempts + quarterback rush attempts + sacks : rush attempts at other positions). It takes a little time, but, again, you’re only dealing with 10-20 coaches (head coaches and offensive coordinators).

Also, most teams usually stick with a similar approach to offense each season. (For example, the Bears and Steelers will almost invariably field a run-first team.)

Overview - When you begin looking over all this data and information, it might seem a little daunting, but it’s really not. I’m guessing you’re already a pretty big NFL fan who appreciates numbers - why else would you be on a fantasy football website that encourages self-directed research? - so you probably follow the NFL during the offseason. You read about it, watch NFL Live, etc. In other words, you probably know which big names changed places and who was drafted by your favorite team and which big-name rookies are projected to start. The rest is digging a little deeper and analyzing those moves.

The good news: it’s a little work, but it’s more than worth it. I guarantee it will make you a better fantasy football owner, even if your projections are wrong because it’s more trial and error than anything else. Self-directed research will make you a more knowledgeable fan and will give you a better overall feel for the game, so you’ll be even better at this next season.

Good luck!

Yes, it actually does matter. Contrary to popular belief, it does pay to watch preseason football and apply what you see to fantasy football. The trick is knowing what you see and keying in on the aspects that actually do matter.

To be honest, there isn’t a lot. In fact, let me point out a few of the things you shouldn’t apply to fantasy football and the regular season.

Performance - Jason Campbell, Colt Brennan, and Todd Collins completed a combined 19-of-21 for 216 yards and 3 touchdowns on Sunday when the Redskins played the Colts in the NFL’s preseason opener. Does that matter? No. Does Campbell’s perfect 5-for-5 day mean anything? No. Heck, the Colts opened up the game with an onside kick, clearly practicing (and giving the fans a little excitement, too). The truth is, the only players who invest 100% in these games are those who are on the fringe - will they make the roster or won’t they? Everyone else avoids getting hurt.

Wins and Losses - In the previous example the Redskins defeated the Colts. But, hey, Joseph Addai carried the ball once, Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison didn’t play, and Quinn Gray led Indianapolis’s passing attack. Again, does it mean anything? Probably not. Last season the Patriots started preseason 0-2 and defeated the Giants in the fourth week, 27-20.

Bottom line: things change and preseason doesn’t translate to regular season, much less postseason.

There are, however, a couple things to actually look for while you’re kicking back for some meaningless football games.

Game Planning and Tendencies - Last season I watched the Cowboys target their tight ends a lot during the preseason. Did I realize that Jason Witten was poised for an unbelievable season? No, I didn’t. But team’s do practice their game plans during the preseason, so pay attention. Watch the positions the team keys in on, not necessarily the players themselves.

Tight Position Battles - This actually does matter because position battles are won and lost during training camps and preseason football games. Most NFL head coaches get four games during the preseason to see how their players react against other teams. Watch close battles unfold (Baltimore’s quarterback situation, for example) and you might have a heads up on your fellow league-mates.

Injuries, of Course - Players get hurt during preseason, so pay attention. Even if you miss the game be sure to check the injury report. No one wants to draft a guy who injured his ankle and will miss the first five games of the regular season because he or she didn’t pay attention.

Bottom line: rarely watch the players’ performance (unless their jobs depend on it) and instead key in on the gameplans. Regardless of what you watch, however, remember that this is preseason; don’t let it drastically change your draft tendencies.