We’re four weeks into the season, and 28 of the NFL’s 32 teams have played their first four games. There was a lot to glean from these games, and an important aspect of fantasy football is recognizing trends and adjusting to them. This series of posts hopes to shed some light on all 32 teams through statistical analysis.

1) Joe Flacco’s putting up outstanding numbers. The best part: he’s doing it against both the weak and strong points on the schedule. He threw two touchdowns against both San Diego and New England (both road games), has two 300-yard games this season, and has yet to see the passing game kept out of the endzone this season. He already has 1,100 passing yards and eight touchdowns, putting him on pace for over 4,400 yards and 32 touchdowns over 16 games; even if he doesn’t hit those numbers, this season is far from a sophomore slump.

2) Willis McGahee is a touchdown machine. Last week was the first he was shut out of the endzone on the ground, but he still managed a receiving score. In his previous three games McGahee rushed for five touchdowns and caught a sixth. Despite just 42 touches in four games, McGahee already has seven scores this season.

3) Though he’s not getting a consistent number of touches, Ray Rice is developing into a solid running back. He hasn’t carried more than 11 times since week one but still has 309 yards from scrimmage in that span. When he did carry 19 times week one Rice rushed for 108 yards. He has 429 yards from scrimmage in four games; the only downside is that he has just one touchdown. McGahee is a touchdown vulture this season. Rice is the yards in this offense and McGahee is the touchdowns.

4) Flacco spreads the ball around. Five players have between 14 and 19 receptions this season; Derrick Mason leads the team with 19 for 284 yards and 2 touchdowns. Speaking of touchdowns, five receivers have an endzone reception this season, and three have two: Todd Heap, McGahee, and the aforementioned Mason.

5) Derrick Mason has tremendous numbers … and his game numbers are improving on a weekly basis. In the first two weeks of the season he caught seven passes for 78 yards; the last two weeks he’s caught 12 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns. His is quickly becoming an impressive season as he vies for more of Joe Flacco’s attention.

(Below is a graph displaying Mason’s fantasy points on a weekly basis.)

(To put it in perspective, next is a graph displaying Mason’s fantasy points the last two weeks, stacked against all other wide receivers. Mason is tied for third on the list.)

We’re four weeks into the season, and 28 of the NFL’s 32 teams have played their first four games. There was a lot to glean from these games, and an important aspect of fantasy football is recognizing trends and adjusting to them. This series of posts hopes to shed some light on all 32 teams through statistical analysis.

1) This offense doesn’t score a lot of points. The Jets may be 3-1, but they’re winning primarily with defense. Consider week four against the Saints: Drew Brees and Co. scored 10 points of offense, but two Mark Sanchez turnovers kept the Jets out of contention. Overall the Jets have averaged under 20 points per game and rank 21st in scoring.

2) You don’t need to love Mark Sanchez if you’re a fantasy football player. Sanchez has thrown four touchdowns and five interceptions this season and is completing under 60 percent of his passes. Even though he threw four touchdowns to just two interceptions through the first three games, his yardage in those games was far from impressive. In fact, he’s passed for more than 171 yards once this season — week one against the Texans.

(The graph below displays Sanchez’s passing yards on a game-by-game basis this season.)

3) You don’t have to love Thomas Jones, either. Jones has three rushing touchdowns this season, which is fantastic, but his touches scare me a little bit. He’s carried more than 14 times just once, and he hasn’t broken 60 rushing yards since week one. Coincidentally, that’s when he rushed for more than 100 yards and scored two of his touchdowns. Unless the Jets start using him more often, his fantasy season looks bleak.

4) But you do have to love Jericho Cotchery. Cotchery has 356 receiving yards this season. More importantly, he’s been consistent — really consistent. The Jets leading wide receiver hasn’t finished a game with under 71 receiving yards this season, nor has he been on the receiving end of fewer than four passes in a game. Though Sanchez hasn’t been perfect (and isn’t a great fantasy prospect this season) Cotchery’s his guy, and that’s been a good thing so far.

5) Jones and Cotchery are currently the only two legitimate fantasy contributors on this roster. And Jones isn’t much to write home about. Read number two on this list again if you think Sanchez is your boy. And if you’re still not sold on Cotchery, check out the graph below displaying Sanchez’s passing attempts distribution to spot a trend. (Hint: he likes throwing to one player more than the others.) Also note that Cotchery is on the only player in the top three who has a completion percentage (receptions/targets) above 60 percent. His is a tad below 68 percent.

We’re four weeks into the season, and 28 of the NFL’s 32 teams have played their first four games. There was a lot to glean from these games, and an important aspect of fantasy football is recognizing trends and adjusting to them. This series of posts hopes to shed some light on all 32 teams through statistical analysis.

1) Fred Jackson’s value is declining rapidly. Though Buffalo’s third-year running back has already carried 70 times and has 88 total touches through four games, the return of Marshawn Lynch spells trouble. Furthermore, Jackson has only scored once in the first four games (on a reception), and he hasn’t scored since week one.

(Below is a graph of Fred Jackson’s fantasy points this season on a week-by-week basis.)

2) The addition of Terrell Owens isn’t living up to the hype — yet. Owens has 8 receptions this season and week three he was held to zero. He’s been targeted 20 times this season, and he was even targeted five times week three. Trent Edwards wants him to get the ball, but defenses have been all over it. It also means that if the rapport between Edwards and Owens heats up, Owens could develop into a bigger feature. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened yet.

3) Fred Jackson has been the most targeted receiver in Buffalo’s offense. If Marshawn Lynch steals carries, he probably won’t steal (many) receptions. Expect Jackson to play a vital role in the Bills’ offense all season long.

(The graph below displays the leading “targeted” receivers.)

4) Trent Edwards has not improved significantly since last season, but his touchdown numbers have. In spite of the addition of Terrell Owens, Edwards’ efficiency numbers haven’t risen significantly. He’s completed under 60 percent of his pass attempts for five touchdowns and five interceptions. He is on pace for nearly twice as many touchdowns as last season, but he’s also set to throw twice as many interceptions. Furthermore, his yards per attempt has actually declined 0.4 points since last season.

5) Josh Reed might be the most consistent receiver in Buffalo’s offense. He’s played just three games but is already second on the team in receptions. He caught 10 passes for 106 yards between weeks two and three, and though he caught just one pass week four, it was a touchdown. His production isn’t overly impressive, but it is somewhat striking that he’s ahead of both Terrell Owens and Lee Evans in receptions.

2008 was arguably, at least on the surface, a step in the wrong direction for Tony Romo. Injuries forced him to miss three starts, leaving fans to wonder why-oh-why the Cowboys had signed Brad Johnson to fill the depth chart. Furthermore, Romo’s numbers fell in every category, though he did wind up handling the football a bit more conservatively, evidenced by his throwing five fewer interceptions (or about half a percentage point when adjusting for an equal number of attempts)

Comparing two seasons, one with 70 fewer pass attempts and 3 fewer starts than the other, is on the shallow side of analysis. After adjusting Romo’s statistics to offer a better comparison between the two seasons, consider Romo’s numbers, had he attempted 70 more pass attempts (or 520 total, the number he attempted in 2007): 3,984 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions. In 2007 he passed for 4,211 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions.

While Romo wouldn’t have equaled his impressive numbers from the prior season, it’s hard to argue those numbers as anything short of impressive. He was safer with the football while still averaging 7.7 yards per attempt and a 5.7% touchdown percentage. The fact his interceptions went down is also a promising sign. One only wonders whether finding Terrell Owens less in 2008 wasn’t responsible for the slight downturn in yards and touchdowns.

Still, Romo stacked up well with other quarterbacks last season and had he played 16 games he would have been a much more revered fantasy quarterback at the end of the season. Just look at how he compares to the top six quarterbacks (those throwing the most overall touchdowns) in touchdown percentage:

Though Philip Rivers had an “off the charts” season, Tony Romo is head-and-shoulders above several other stars.

I like to preach consistency as being a defining factor when considering any player and Romo had it last season. In only one game (week 17, which for most fantasy players isn’t even on the schedule) that Romo played did he fail to throw a touchdown pass. Put another way, he found the endzone every week he started during the regular season.

Worth noting, however, is that while Romo averaged 2 passing touchdowns per start last season, he only threw that many in two games. In the rest of his starts he passed for either 1 or 3 touchdowns, which meant he either lit up the board for players with him on their rosters or he put up a mild score - more often than not, however, he lit up the boards. Check out the trend graph:

In six games Tony Romo passed for 3 touchdowns and in four others he threw just 1. Six 3-touchdown games is an impressive total for any player to accomplish, and it certainly made fantasy players with him on the roster happy.

Stats You Need to Know Now

Tony Romo …

… averaged 2.3 touchdowns per game before his injury and 1.7 per game after his injury.

… attempted 30+ passes in all but two starts.

… saw his quarterback rating dip below 70 in 3 of the final 4 games of the season.

… finished 6th in touchdown passes for the season, despite missing 3 starts.

… has had a seasonal passer rating of at least 90 in all three seasons of his career.

… threw 19 touchdowns at home and 7 on the road.

… was 5th in the league in passing yards per game.

… threw 17 of his touchdowns at the end of either the first or second half.

A Final Note and Question to You …

Quickly looking forward to 2009 (and I’m only bringing this up now because it’s recent news) - do you think the absence of Terrell Owens is a blessing for the Cowboys’ locker room? If so, perhaps you’re right, but it’s not a blessing for Tony Romo, insofar as his statistics are concerned. Developing in an offense with a receiver of Terrell Owens’ capabilities was a boon for Romo; even from a less tangible perspective it appeared Owens had Romo’s back at every turn, though Owens naturally expected passes to be thrown his way. Owens caught 10 touchdowns in 2008, 9 in games Romo started. The question now, of course, is this: who will fill that void?

One of the most under-appreciated fantasy football starters is Drew Brees. He puts up numbers worthy or ranking him as a tier-one quarterback, yet players like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning get all the spotlight in pre-draft analysis. It’s a shame, too, considering few quarterbacks have put up numbers comparable to Brees over the past three seasons. Perhaps more worth noting: his numbers, while spectacular all three seasons, have actually been steadily climbing since 2006.

Most everyone already realizes Brees throws an incredible number of passes each season - a great deal more than any other quarterback - but let me quickly illustrate it:

Only Brett Favre is within 150 attempts of Brees, and even he’s well over 100 shy. I find it fascinating that the 10th ranked passer is nearly 500 attempts short of Brees. Not surprisingly, Brees also leads the NFL in completions over the past three seasons.

Why is it so important to know Brees throws more passes than any other NFL quarterback? More attempts and completions equals more opportunities. It’s no accident Brees is second in the NFL the past three seasons in touchdown passes, with 88. He’s also thrown the second most touchdown passes the past three seasons during fantasy playoffs (weeks 14-16):

Stats You Need to Know Now

Drew Brees …

… has completed more passes for more yards than any other quarterback in the NFL. (Peyton Manning is second in both categories.)

… keeps getting better and 2008 was the first season in his career he threw at least 30 touchdown passes - he had 34.

… has passed for more than 4,400 yards in each of the past three season - only 25 times in history has a quarterback thrown for at least 4,400 yards.

… was 15 yards shy of Dan Marino’s single season record for passing yards.

… has the second highest interception total in the NFL the past two seasons (35).

… hasn’t missed a start since 2004.

… has been one of the least sacked quarterbacks in the NFL since joining the Saints in 2005.

… failed to throw a touchdown pass in just one game in 2008, while throwing multiple scores in 11 games, including the final 6 games of the season.

… threw at least 3 touchdowns in four of the first eight games of the season; in the other four he threw one or none.

Peyton Manning may have stumbled out of the gate in 2008 (more on that in a bit), but no one finished stronger, save perhaps Drew Brees. Why the slow start? Manning’s downplayed knee injury in training camp kept him out of preseason and August practice. Because Indianapolis’s offense relies so heavily on timed routes and quick release passes, missing crucial time with teammates kept the Colts offense a bit out of sync - and it showed. By week nine, however, Manning had completely regained composure in the pocket and the Colts were unstoppable, winning games and clinching a playoff berth while keeping Tennessee on its toes as the season wore down.

No quarterback in the NFL is as consistent as Manning, which makes him fantasy football gold. Perhaps more interesting, however, is that no one is better when it’s time for fantasy playoffs (defined here as weeks 14-16). The following is a graph (obtained using the SDH tool kit) showing Manning’s dominance in weeks 14-16 over the past three seasons:

Manning’s clutch performances as the Colts’ season comes to a close are on full display. As you can see, no one in the league even comes close. He has five more touchdowns than Drew Brees or Philip Rivers, or a difference of 10 points/season in a league awarding 6 points per touchdown. Go down to the 13th ranked quarterback in this graph (Donovan McNabb), and you can see Manning has more than doubled his total.

Other fantasy relevant points:

The above two graphs compare Manning’s touchdown passes during the first and second halves of the 2008 season. In the first you can see he threw more than 1 touchdown in three games, while not throwing a touchdown in two (one of which was a bye). In the second half of the season, however, he threw fewer than 2 touchdowns in just three games and at least 3 touchdowns in another three games. In other words, his totals for the two halves are 10 (weeks 1-8) and 17 (weeks 9-17) - slow start (for Manning), strong finish.

Stats You Need to Know Now

Peyton Manning …

… has thrown at least 30 touchdowns in three of the past five seasons.

… hasn’t thrown fewer than 26 touchdowns in a season in his career.

… is a safe bet to start 16 games - he hasn’t missed a start in his career and he’s one of the least-sacked quarterbacks in the league.

… won’t kill you if your league penalizes interceptions - he hasn’t thrown more than 14 in a season since 2002.

… threw 3 interceptions betweens weeks 9-17 in 2008.

… has thrown at least 500 passes each of the past three seasons.

… has passed for at least 4,000 yards each of the past three and eight of the past nine seasons.

… hasn’t posted a sub-95.0 passer rating since 2002.

… has thrown more touchdowns than any quarterback in the NFL the past three seasons.

… hasn’t completed fewer than 65.0 percent of his passes in a season since 2001.

Fantasy football is played over the course of an NFL season, but as any owner will tell you, it’s weeks 14-16 that really count. It’s fantasy playoffs time, which is why I’m certain you’ll be looking for an edge. That’s why you’re on this site, right?

That’s what I thought.

Now the best thing to look for when approaching fantasy postseason is trends among individual players. The Sports Data Hub free tool set makes checking these trends wicked easy, and this article takes a look at just one example of what is possible.

Take a look at these 6 players, three of which show positive (or improving) trends and three of which are experiencing negative (or downward) trends.

Positive

DeAngelo Williams - Carolina Panthers

Looking at Williams’ last five games reveals an overall positive trend. He took a bit of a bit last week, but it was still a more-than-satisfactory gameas he rushed for 120 yards. It’s also good to see that he’s carried for at least 100 yards in each of his last three starts. Something you don’t see here: Williams has rushed for 4 touchdowns in his last three starts and his yard per carry average in those weeks was 6.4, 7.4, and 8.6. In short: start him if you’re lucky enough to have him.

Thomas Jones -New York Jets

I love players who score touchdowns and Thomas Jones has been doing that plenty this season. Consider his last six starts: at least one rushing touchdown in every game (except week 7, when he rushed for 159 yards) and two or more in a couple others. And consider this: when the Jets’ running back rushes for a touchdown New York is 6-0. When he doesn’t, the team is 1-3. Translation: expect Mangenius to get Jones some goal line carries as the Jets make a run at the postseason.

Maurice Jones-Drew - Jacksonville Jaguars

Here’s another running back who has been finding his way to the endzone on a frequent basis this season. Maurice Jones-Drew has 11 touchdowns under his belt, 5 of which he scored in his last two starts. That’s a trend I love to see - especially when it’s coupled with the fact he’s failed to score just twice in his past eleven starts.

Negative

Matt Forte - Chicago Bears

See that? This was a trend search for the number of touchdowns Matt Forte has scored in his last three starts. “No data to display” is never a good sign. The good news is that he has been getting enough touches (20+ per game every week this season) to pick up a fair amount of yards each week. Still, yards alone might not be enough come postseason. Lesson learned: “No data to display” equals “don’t start.”

Marion Barber - Dallas Cowboys

See those lines going up and down, up and down like a rollercoaster? That’s a bad sign. Looking at only weeks four and on, you can see that perhaps overall the trend is up if you look with a glass half full attitude. But seeing a running back’s rushing yards climb above 100 just twice in a seven week span isn’t enough to make him a solid start. It’s also disheartening that he rushed for two touchdowns those weeks, too.

Clinton Portis - Washington Redskins

Okay, I admit, it’s pretty doggone difficult to find fault with Clinton Portis. He’s been the heart and soul of the Redskins offense and he hit a streak of five consecutive 100 yard games earlier this season. But just consider: he has not scored a touchdown in his last three starts. He’s had at least 20 receiving yards once this season. And he has failed to rush for at least 70 yards in his last two starts. Portis carried 187 times in his first eight games this season, and at least 21 times in each game. That will wear down any running back, and, as a result, he’s carried a combined 28 times his last two starts. Remember: no matter how great a player appears on the surface (and Portis does appear spectacular … and he is) it’s always a good idea to keep an eye on him and view him with a healthy dose of skepticism.

In case you were unable to read all of them or you don’t want to spend the time finding them in the archives, here is a list of week 9’s recaps. Each recap is written with a fantasy football spin, spitting out plenty of statistics from the game and relaying some interesting trends occurring among the individual players. Also included with each game listed below is a fantasy trend or statistic I’ve labeled the “number to know”; basically, it’s what I found most interesting from the given game.

Houston at Minnesota

Number to Know: Owen Daniels has finished with at least 60 receiving yards in 5 of his last 7 games, but has caught at least one touchdown in just one game this season.

Green Bay at Tennessee

Number to Know: Six of Kerry Collins’ completions were to running back Chris Johnson, who led the team in that category and yards, with 72 on the day.

Detroit at Chicago

Number to Know: Calvin Johnson led the Lions receiving corps with 8 receptions for 94 yards and a touchdown.

New York (Jets) at Buffalo

Number to Know: Trent Edwards has yet to throw more than one touchdown pass in a game this season and has six on the year.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati

Number to Know: Two of David Garrard’s streaks were killed in this game: his five consecutive game streak of at least one touchdown and the same length streak with no interceptions.

Baltimore at Cleveland

Number to Know: Derek Anderson has now thrown at least one touchdown pass in six consecutive games and seven of eight overall.

Tampa Bay at Kansas City

Number to Know: Earnest Graham has not carried for at least 100 yards since September, though this was his best total (61 yards) in the time since.

Arizona at St. Louis

Number to Know: The Rams are 2-1 in games in which Marc Bulger does not throw an interception and 0-4 in games he does.

Miami at Denver

Number to Know: Jay Cutler has thrown at least one interception in six of his last seven starts and at least one touchdown pass in every game he has played this season.

Dallas at New York (Giants)

Number to Know: Eli Manning has thrown at least one touchdown in each of his last seven starts.

Atlanta at Oakland

Number to Know: This was the first time since week two that Roddy White finished with fewer than 90 receiving yards (he had 54); it also snapped a three game 100-yard streak.

Philadelphia at Seattle

Number to Know: Seneca Wallace was 12-of-28 for 79 yards in the final 58 minutes and 11 seconds of play.

New England at Indianapolis

Number to Know: Peyton Manning has failed to throw a touchdown pass in just one game this season and has thrown at least 2 touchdowns in four of his past five starts.

Pittsburgh at Washington

Number to Know: Chris Cooley has finished games with at least 50 receiving yards in 6 of his last 8 starts but has just 1 receiving touchdown this season.

The Cleveland Browns haven’t exactly lived up to expectations this season, but at least one player is trying to continue what he started in 2007. Jamal Lewis, who has carried 90 times for 323 yards and two touchdows in five games this year, hasn’t been great. In fact, there are fantasy owners who might have dumped him after just three starts, in which he carried just 44 times and scored zero touchdowns. But those who stuck with him were rewarded the last two weeks and may be rewarded the rest of the season.

Lewis, who hadn’t carried at least 20 times in a single game prior to week five, had at least one good number going in his favor: in two of his first three starts he averaged 4.7 and 4.8 yards per carry. In week two against the Pittsburgh Steelers, picking up just 2.0 yards when he was handed the football. But don’t take that as an omen that he can’t gain yards against good defenses. Against the Baltmore Ravens week three he averaged 4.7 yards per carry.

Unfortunately, the Browns lost their first three games. And perhaps it was because the team was too focused on throwing the ball, instead of establishing the run. Here’s a little fact to back that statement: Lewis has carried an average of 23 times per game in his last two starts; incidentally, the Browns won both those games, including the shocking Monday Night upset over the Giants. (Cleveland is 10-1 over the last two years when he carries at least 20 times.)

As an added plus for fantasy owners who started him in those games, Lewis set season highs in yards and scored a touchdown in each. Look at it this way: in his first three starts he rushed for 156 yards and zero touchdowns; in his last two he’s picked up 157 yards and two touchdowns.

Lewis is a big tailback, at 5′11, 245 pounds. He’s also the type of runner who gets stronger as the game progresses and likes to wear down a defense.

“By the end of the game he’s coming at you so hard, the cornerback was just running out of the way,” quarterback Derek Anderson said after the Browns Monday Night victory.

Not getting Lewis his 20-25 carries each week means not taking full advantage of what he’s best at. I don’t think the Browns will continue to make that mistake this season

Key Points

• Cleveland is 2-0 this season when Lewis carries at least 20 times and 0-3 when he doesn’t
• He’s scored one touchdown in each of his last two starts
• He’s a downhill runner who gets stronger as he gets more carries

Second-year running back Le’Ron McClain wasn’t a popular fantasy draft pick. He probably wasn’t even on most fantasy football players’ radars because, well, he’s a fullback. But six weeks into the season, he’s proving himself to be a viable fantasy backup and, at least in some games this season, he’s put up starting fantasy back numbers.

The 23-year old McClain has good size. At 6′0, 260 pounds, he would prefer to run through defenders, rather than around them. And this season he’s getting plenty of opportunities to do so.

“I ran over the guy in the end zone,” McClain said of a touchdown against the Steelers. “That felt pretty good.”

Though McClain doesn’t get a lot of touches, he is most definitely the Ravens goal line back. Between weeks 3-5 he scored four rushing touchdowns while carrying the ball just 44 times, and every one of his touchdowns this season has been within two yards.

Yes, Le’Ron McClain is 100 percent a goal line back.

But here’s the sweet news: he still gets a very healthy number of touches on a weekly basis. In fact, since week 3 (the Ravens second game of the season), McClain has carried 46 times. Willis McGahee, the team’s starter, has carried 58 times in that span.

Now, here’s the catch: in games in which the Ravens cannot run the football, the primary reason being that they trail an opponent, like they did the Colts last week, McClain is probably not going to get a lot of touches. The same might hold true for games in which the Ravens have a difficult time moving the football down the field because McClain isn’t the type of player who threatens to score from any spot on the field; his longest carry this season went 17 yards.

Of course, week six is no reason to give up hope on the fullback. He averages 4.1 yards per carry this season and though against the Colts he lost two yards on two attempts, he had picked up 266 yards and four touchdowns in his previous four starts.

The Ravens situation isn’t necessarily the case of “running back by committee.” To some degree it is, yes, but it also reminds me a bit of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers when Mike Alstott was the fan favorite; Alsott made the Pro Bowl every season between 1997-2002 and scored 44 touchdowns in those years. He was arguably the NFL’s best running fullback since Larry Csonka.

Now, McClain may never get the number of carries as Alstott did in his prime. But as long as he’s handling goal line carries and picking up between 50-80 yards on any given week, he’s very much worth a spot on some fantasy team’s roster; maybe even yours.

Key Points to Remember

• McClain is on pace for 208 carries this season and, more importantly, is averaging 0.8 touchdowns per game
• He’s a goal line back in an offense that would rather run than throw
• He’s a dangerous start in weeks in which the Ravens face a tough defense or hot offense