Login

Login

Posts Tagged ‘Tyler Thigpen’

Preseason Week 3: Before the Games

Thursday, August 27th, 2009

With the third week of preseason games getting underway, it’s time to take a look around the league to see what’s going on, and what use it will be for the upcoming fantasy season.

- Reggie Brown (and His Fantasy Value) on the Move? The Philadelphia Eagles have too many receivers than they know what to do with, and the Philadelphia Daily News says that both the Jets and Ravens are interested in Reggie Brown. Brown is a former second-round draft pick who looked like he was going to blossom into an excellent player before getting injured and falling back on the depth chart last season. If he is moved, his fantasy value would rise by leaps and bounds, to the point where he would be worth drafting as a reserve.

- Jermichael Finley Pushing Donald Lee for Playing Time: Last season, Packers rookie and third-round pick, tight end Jermichael Finley, did loads of nothing, as fellow tight end Donald Lee helped fantasy owners to the tune of five touchdowns. Things could be quite different this season for both of them, as Finley has made people take notice with his play, or so says the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. This could be either beneficial or harmful to fantasy owners. If Finley steps up and takes the job outright from Lee, He has value as a big target who could be useful in the end zone. However, the most likely scenario is that the two split time, and neither puts up fantasy-worthy numbers. Keep that in mind when thinking about Lee as a TE2.

- Chiefs and Jags Talking Trade for Tyler Thigpen: NFL.com says that Thigpen (see his fantasy points per game last season on graph), the Kansas City quarterback and hero to many fantasy owners last season, may be on his way to Jacksonville. Apparently the NFL’s J.D. Drew Award winner (for yearly injuries), Brodie Croyle, is going to be the No. 2 quarterback behind Matt Cassel, leaving Thigpen out in the cold.

- Michael Crabtree Offered Fair-Market Deal: According to Santa Rosa Press Democrat reporter Matt Maiocco, the 49ers have offered Crabtree, the 10th overall pick in the draft, somewhere “in the neighborhood of five years, $20 million base, $26.5 million maximum, with $16 million guaranteed.” Which, as Maiocco points out, is solidly in between what No. 9 pick B.J. Raji got and what No. 11 pick Aaron Maybin got. Crabtree’s agent seems to think this is a fair deal as well, but Crabtree does not. Fantasy owners should not count on seeing him any time soon, it sounds like. His fantasy value has taken a major plunge since the beginning of training camp.

- Walter Jones Not Headed for Retirement: The longtime Seattle Seahawks left tackle is expected to be back with the team, reports the Seattle Post-Intelligencer. There was some speculation that Jones may hang ‘em up after undergoing another operation on his balky knee.

How Scheme Changes Affect Fantasy Performance (Part 1 of 4)

Friday, August 14th, 2009

When you think of the big offseason moves, the first ones that come to mind are TO to Buffalo, Cutler to Chicago, and Gonzales to the Falcons.  While all those are important personnel changes for their new teams, what may be just as important are the scheme (coaching) changes made throughout the league.  Including former interim coaches Tom Cable of Oakland and Mike Singletary of San Francisco, eleven teams will have new head coaches in 2009.  Not counting the vacant offensive coordinator positions in New England, Oakland, and Arizona, eight teams will have new offensive coordinators in 2009 and many of them will be bringing in different schemes than what was in place before.  This is the first part of a four-part series that details how knowing an offensive scheme can go a long way in predicting player performance.

Cleveland [HC: Mangini (Jets), OC: Daboll (Jets)]
The forecast of the Browns depends entirely on who’s playing quarterback.  If it’s Anderson then expect to see the 2009 Browns resembling the 2006-2007 Jets with Chad Pennington at quarterback as Mangini would use a conservative approach with the offense.  But if Quinn wins the job, seeing how his physical tools are similar to Brett Favre’s, expect the Browns to air it out more in ‘09 which means more touchdowns, but also more interceptions.
The backfields between the 2008 Jets and 2009 Browns are eerily similar.

Jamal Lewis becomes Mangini’s next 30-year-old running back to try to re-invigorate and Jerome Harrison, who averaged 7.2 ypc in ‘08, fills Leon Washington’s third down role.  The problem is that Jamal Lewis’ resurgent season happened two years ago and he enters 2009 with 740 more carries than what Jones entered 2008 with.  Don’t expect an increase across the board like Jones had, but as the definitive goal-line back, Lewis will certainly score more than the four touchdowns he had last year.  As far as the other former pro bowler on offense, Braylon Edwards, he cannot possibly be worse than he was last year.  He would be an absolute steal as a WR2 on your team so if he’s available in the mid-rounds then jump on him.  Without Kellen Winslow garnering the safety’s attention, and with a rookie lining up as the other receiver, Edwards will be double teamed more often than before.  But he still has the talent to be what Jerricho Cotchery was not-a consistent down the field receiver.  He may never score 16 touchdowns again in a season like he did in 2007 but I think the nearly 1300 yards he put up that season is attainable.

Early reports out of training camp are that Steve Heiden is starting at tight end and Mike Furrey is lining up opposite Edwards.  However, both those positions have young players in Martin Rucker and Brian Robiskie at TE and WR, respectively, ready to take up those roles.  The veterans may give way to their younger counterparts at some point during the season but currently, none of those four is worth putting in your lineup.

Kansas City [HC: Haley (Cardinals), OC: Gailey (Chiefs)]
Even though Kansas City retained offensive coordinator, Chan Gailey, their offense is essentially starting over.  Gailey employed the spread offense to utilize QB Tyler Thigpen’s running ability and his team’s lack of talent.  Now with Matt Cassel at quarterback and with all plays going through Haley, the Chiefs will have a more traditional look on offense-if you consider three-receiver sets traditional.  Cassel’s biggest problems are his inabaility to avoid sacks and his lack of accuracy when throwing the deep ball.  That combined with a lesser talented receiving core mean that his numbers will dip in 2009.

Larry Johnson will undertake the Edgerrin James role of the unhappy running back.  But LJ still is a much better runner than what Edge ever was in Arizona.  He won’t come anywhere near the dominance he had in 2005-2006 but he should once again become a 1000 yard rusher, assuming he stays healthy.  Also, don’t forget about all the touchdowns Tim Hightower scored last year for Arizona (10).  Those scoring opportunities fall into the hands of Johnson and as with Braylon Edwards, LJ could be another steal of a draft pick.

2008 Receiving Targets
Veteran receivers Amani Toomer and Bobby Engram will be the second and third receivers, respectively, in Todd Haley’s base offense but neither offers much fantasy value at these points in their careers.  Haley also doesn’t think much of tight ends so Brad Cottam has minimal value except for occasional red zone looks.  The one receiver who will have an impact is Dwayne Bowe.  His physical features and skill set are most similar to Anquan Boldin among all of the Cardinals receivers.  Yet Bowe has more speed although that may somewhat be negated by Cassel’s inaccurate deep throw.  Nonetheless, Bowe will have plenty of reception opportunities as Kansas City will often be down late in games.  Common belief says receivers don’t truly break out until their third season and after Bowe posted 1000 yards in ’08, I can’t wait to see what he can do with some quarterback stability in 2009.

Fantasy Value: AFC West Quarterbacks

Thursday, May 14th, 2009

Our series on the fantasy value of quarterbacks in each division in the NFL continues with the AFC West. Like its counterpart in the NFC, the western division in the AFC has recently been one where success has been more elusive than the Holy Grail. Still, a new year brings new hope, not only for the teams in the division, but for those fantasy owners who may wind up with one of the division’s quarterbacks on their roster. Let’s take a look.

Denver Broncos:  New Denver head coach Josh McDaniels had an offseason that started off rockier than Colorado’s mountains when quarterback Jay Cutler got upset that McDaniels was reportedly interested in bringing Matt Cassel in as the team’s signal caller. The two never got on the same page, and the situation between the pair quickly decomposed, leading to Cutler getting traded to the Bears for draft picks and Kyle Orton. Despite the presence of Chris Simms and rookie Tom Brandstater, Orton likely enters camp as the team’s No. 1 quarterback. He makes for one of the more intriguing fantasy options in the league due to his promising play before getting hurt last season, and the fact that McDaniels helped Cassel go from irrelevant backup to someone who finished in the top-10 in passing yards, touchdown passes, and quarterback rating. Can the same be done with Orton? It’s possible, especially with the weapons Denver possesses on offense. Still, it’s hard to figure Orton as a guy fantasy owners should depend on as their QB1 heading into the season considering his lack of past success. But you should feel more than comfortable with him as a backup.

Kansas City Chiefs: Despite the solid play of Tyler Thigpen last season for the Chiefs, the team, behind new GM Scott Pioli, decided to make a trade for Matt Cassel to be their quarterback, and signed him to a long-term deal. Thigpen only completed 54.8 percent of his throws last year, but he did toss 18 touchdowns, and ran for three more, making him a fairly decent option for fantasy owners off the waiver wire. Alas, he’ll be relegated to backup status in 2009, as Cassel takes over the reins. Cassel came out of nowhere last season to play well, but he was a bit iffy as a fantasy option due to his relative inconsistency. He was a boom-or-bust type, as he had five games with at least three touchdown passes, but five games with no touchdown throws. With Tony Gonzalez traded to Atlanta, the Chiefs are essentially looking at Dwayne Bowe and veteran Bobby Engram as their only receiving threats. That’s a far cry from having Randy Moss and Wes Welker running routes. But Cassel does offer great upside, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him put together a season similar to last year, but hopefully one with more consistency. Call him a low-end QB1.

Oakland Raiders: Oakland does things one way, and only one way - the Al Davis way. That doesn’t figure to change until the Crypt Keeper is finally entombed, and means former No. 1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell will again be trying to throw to receivers whose main asset is speed; route-running and hands be damned. Russell hasn’t come close to living up to his draft status, but he did show a bit of improvement towards the end of the year, as he posted his only two games of throwing for at least 230 yards and two scores in the season’s final three weeks. Nonetheless, Oakland possesses a shaky offensive line and solid stable of running backs, so fantasy owners should look elsewhere for their quarterback on draft day.

San Diego Chargers: Somewhat quietly, Philip Rivers had one of the best seasons in the league for a quarterback in 2008. While most fantasy owners cursed the slowdown of running back LaDainian Tomlinson, they may have been overlooking the ascension of Rivers to elite status. He led the NFL with a quarterback rating of 105.5, tied Drew Brees for the league lead with 34 touchdown passes, was fifth with 4,009 passing yards, and seventh with a 65.3 completion percentage. As Tomlinson hits age 30 before the season, look for the team to depend even more on Rivers. He still has a deluge of talented receivers at his disposal, not to mention one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the game in Antonio Gates. Rivers should be targeted as one of the upper-echelon fantasy quarterbacks in the league, arguably behind only the aforementioned Brees and Indianapolis’ Peyton Manning.